Again, the past 3 years, Napoli has overall been significantly better. He even homers more often per plate appearance. I personally wouldn't want to give Napoli $13 million for 3 years, but IMO, it's better than paying Adam Dunn $15 million.

Napoli has been protected for much of his career, given special matchups, platoon roles, etc. and that has affected his overall numbers. Dunn however is just thrown out there. Robin routinely plays him against tough lefties & Ozzie left him in almost all of 2011 and just let him fail.

 

If we both agree that the Napoli deal is bad then that's probably the only thing we'll agree on. IMO there's a real good reason Soscia (sp?) wanted him gone & a real good reason why his salary was included in the Vernon Wells deal & also a real good reason why Texas picked him up from the Jays for basically a song. He's has 2 total skills as a player & unless he's going to bang the ball off the wall all the time in Fenway, his numbers aren't going to be better than Dunn's and his deal is going to blow up big fart bubbles in Boston Harbor like an old shoe stuffed with big old nasty bubbling fart bubbles.

 

I'm done with this damn thread now. Ugh.

I dont see how Zack Greinke would pick the Rangers over the Dodgers. Unless the Rangers somehow outbid the Dodgers(not likely) he should be a Dodger by the end of this week.

The explanatory power given to OPS has gotten to asinine levels. Just as if you told me their batting averages, I don't learn nearly enough about the player. I also think OPS is especially useless if you're not also giving me HR/RBI stats. OPS is meant to predict HR and RBI, and so I'd like to see if it effectively predicts those things in the player. Dunn out produced his OPS last year, IMO. Napoli seems to produce less than his OPS suggests IMO.

I dont see how Zack Greinke would pick the Rangers over the Dodgers. Unless the Rangers somehow outbid the Dodgers(not likely) he should be a Dodger by the end of this week.

 

If it is by money alone, then yea i agree with you. If it is by a team that has a better chance,I would prefer the Rangers. If you put Greinke in that rotation, they would be just crazy dominant

If it is by money alone, then yea i agree with you. If it is by a team that has a better chance,I would prefer the Rangers. If you put Greinke in that rotation, they would be just crazy dominant

 

I think he would like the Dodgers park though.

I think he would like the Dodgers park though.

 

Sure, any pitcher would. And for the record I agree that he will end up with the Dodgers. But if I were greinke and weighing factors, I would probably end up on the Rangers.

The explanatory power given to OPS has gotten to asinine levels. Just as if you told me their batting averages, I don't learn nearly enough about the player. I also think OPS is especially useless if you're not also giving me HR/RBI stats. OPS is meant to predict HR and RBI, and so I'd like to see if it effectively predicts those things in the player. Dunn out produced his OPS last year, IMO. Napoli seems to produce less than his OPS suggests IMO.

 

OPS is a flawed statistic but it is still a fairly useful statistic. It does not predict HR and RBI and in fact, has no relative predicting powers whatsoever. It is used as a fairly rudimentary statistic to indicate how often guys get on base and how often guys hit for power in general and it combines these two numbers, though their values are weighted differently towards the production of runs (an OBP of 1.000 provides an infinite amount of runs while a SLG of 1.000 does not).

 

In fact, it is impossible to predict RBI independently and instead any basis for the prediction of RBI must take the team itself into account.

 

They are very similar hitters but Napoli has produced better recently. People can choose either Dunn or Napoli and they wouldn't be wrong either way.

If it is by money alone, then yea i agree with you. If it is by a team that has a better chance,I would prefer the Rangers. If you put Greinke in that rotation, they would be just crazy dominant

 

That's a tough call with Hamilton potentially out the door. Plus Grienke would be going to a brutal hitters park, and a place that is just killer from June to September in terms of weather. All signs point to the LAD doing whatever it takes to get back on top, plus they are a huge pitchers park. Though with Grienke's issues, Texas would be a much better market for him to be in vs LA. No one will recognize or bother him in Dallas.

The biggest problem with trying to talk baseball these days is the way people use OPS they way you do. WTF is OPS? f*** OPS, give me HRs. Naopli is a low batting average right hander who takes a walks and doesn't have Dunn's power. He's a poor man's Dunn and he doesn't defend well enough anywhere to justify his contract.

 

This cracks me up every time. How can you call OPS a statistic that is one "small, simple number" and then make an argument that we should look at one smaller, simpler number that is one of many inputs into OPS?

 

The funny thing is that you're right, OPS does suck. But it sucks because it's inaccurate, not because it's "too simple." If you want to end this argument over context and how much you and I "feel" like each number matters, use linear weights. This problem has already been solved -- wOBA and wRC+ are the best, most complete, most accurate offensive measurements we have. There's no opinion involved, they simply weigh everything a hitter does based on how they actually affect run scoring in the current run environment. I've never heard anyone try to make an argument against this method.

Edited December 3, 201213 yr by Eminor3rd

Sure, any pitcher would. And for the record I agree that he will end up with the Dodgers. But if I were greinke and weighing factors, I would probably end up on the Rangers.

 

I mean its a win win for him. But I think the Dodgers have a few advantages over the Rangers.

The explanatory power given to OPS has gotten to asinine levels. Just as if you told me their batting averages, I don't learn nearly enough about the player. I also think OPS is especially useless if you're not also giving me HR/RBI stats. OPS is meant to predict HR and RBI, and so I'd like to see if it effectively predicts those things in the player. Dunn out produced his OPS last year, IMO. Napoli seems to produce less than his OPS suggests IMO.

 

It is? Because Joe Carter's OPS was usually mediocre to bad while he drove in a ton of runs. Those two are mostly independent measures.

Edited December 3, 201213 yr by chw42

Pagan back to the Giants

It is? Because Joe Carter's OPS was usually mediocre to bad while he drove in a ton of runs. Those two are mostly independent measures.

 

Exactly, OPS doesn't "predict" anything. Homeruns create total bases, which are an input for SLG, which is an input for OPS. OPS was a very elementary, very raw attempt to look at overall offensive contribution that his been improved upon several times since its inception.

 

The reason the RBI sucks isn't because runs don't matter, it's because it is a context-specific statistic that does a good job at describing what happened under very specific conditions, but does a poor job of evaluating a player's "true talent." Yes, RBI total loosely correlates with a hitter's true talent, but it correlates MUCH more strongly with lineup position, regardless of hitter quality. If you want to make informed decisions about how much a certain player is going to help you, you want to be able to evaluate his performance in a context-neutral environment. You do this, very simply, by counting the things the batter did that were more-or-less entirely under his control (hits, walks, stolen bases) and assigning run values based on league averages. Was Giancarlo Stanton (86 RBI) worse than Curtis Granderson (106 RBI) in 2012? No, because Stanton's season would have produced way more runs on an average team than Granderson's, which is eveident in their wOBA numbers -- .346 vs .405

 

Does this not make sense? I think everyone should learn how this stuff works before dismissing it.

Edited December 3, 201213 yr by Eminor3rd

4 of the 5 seasons salty had over 150 abs he put up an OPS over .700....I'd be game for a Salty Flowers platoon.

 

EDIT- This was probably said already, haven't looked through everything

 

EDIt again- Yes, yes it has and it has been ripped.

Edited December 3, 201213 yr by 2nd_city_saint787

Pagan back to the Giants

 

The guy who hit about as well as Alejandro De Aza last year just got $40 million.

 

http://sulia.com/channel/baseball/f/608e44...?source=twitter

 

Phil Rogers

 

Purely in terms of fit, Boston is emerging as a possible source of help for the White Sox.

 

The Red Sox are kicking the tire on free-agent starters but have interest in Gavin Floyd. They are looking to move Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who would be a good piece for the White Sox as a platoon partner for Tyler Flowers. The White Sox would save some money, which would help them fill their needs at third base. Eric Chavez is an interesting name on the free-agent market there. He could share the position with Brent Morel, who gets at least half a mulligan to prove that he can hit in the big leagues. Definitely something to watch.

 

 

Doesn't make sense. We trade a starting pitcher for a back up catcher?

 

Now Chavez being signed does sound plausible

Doesn't make sense. We trade a starting pitcher for a back up catcher?

 

Now Chavez being signed does sound plausible

Calling him a backup catcher isn't exactly presenting the entire picture.

 

That backup catcher did hit 25 home runs last year.

Calling him a backup catcher isn't exactly presenting the entire picture.

 

That backup catcher did hit 25 home runs last year.

If the Sox were to acquire Salty, I would imagine him and Flowers sharing the duties much more evenly than AJ and Flowers did.

MLB Network is talking White Sox/Red Sox after the break.

"Looks like AJ will leave"

 

Sox are perfect trade partners...makes too much sense...gavin floyd will be White Sox trade chip...blah blah blah

"Looks like AJ will leave"

 

Sox are perfect trade partners...makes too much sense...gavin floyd will be White Sox trade chip...blah blah blah

Yeah, that was lame.

Phil Rogers ‏@ChiTribRogers

 

According to SF Chronicle, White Sox and Cubs are among at least 8 teams with an interest in free agent Brandon McCarthy.

DKnobler ‏@DKnobler

 

White Sox looking for third baseman (probably not Youkilis) and left handed hitter

Dan Hayes ‏@DanHayesCSN

 

Paul Konerko could be on provisional USA roster for WBC; Jake Peavy & Chris Sale are not. Andre Rienzo in for Brazil. #WhiteSox

 

Also was told that Jose Quintana (Columbia) & Hector Santiago (Puerto Rico) are options for their respective WBC teams.

Mark Gonzales ‏@MDGonzales

 

Hahn: all but ruled out return by Brett Myers, who wants to start and probably will get his wish