If this is the case I would argue that we keep Crain and sign him for a couple more years. He Jones and Reed, if we believe Addison is the answer to our closer need, can really solidfy that 7-8-9th inning close out of games.

 

No

These are the trades I would love to see happen

 

Trade SS Alexei Ramirez [14:$9.5M, 15:$10M, 16:$10M*] and LHP Matt Thornton [14:$6M*] to the pirates for SS Clint Barmes [14:$5.5M] and SS prospect Alen Hanson and C Jin-De Jhang

 

- Pirates need both an offensive and defensive minded SS and Matt Thornton would push Watson a bit further back in their bullpen. Sox get Barmes who is just a sunk cost and place holder as we sort out what we have in our farm system between Alen Hanson and Tim Anderson. Jin-De Jhang adds future catching depth with upside that we're missing in our low minors.

 

Trade 1B Adam Dunn [14:$15M] and RHP Matt Lindstrom[14:$4M*] and $9M to the orioles for RHP Zachary Davies & Parker Bridwell.

 

- Orioles currently have Steve Pearce and Danny Valencia as their DH and they could use a bit of help with their bullpen and are no strangers to Lindstrom. Dunn is heating up through out June and Lindstrom elongates their bullpen, sox pay a very large chunk of Dunn's '14 salary to move beyond this and see what they have within the organization. Both Davies and Bridwell are live arm lottery tickets but the sox have shown a propensity for developing arms lately.

 

Trade RHP Jake Peavy[14:$14.5M] and RHP Jesse Crain[14:FA] to the cardinals for 1B Matt Adams[5YtoFA], RHP Carlos Martinez and RHP Maikel Cleto.

 

- Cards are looking for help in the rotation after all the injurys they've suffered, their impeding FAs and need to protect all of their successful young arms. Peavy solves these issues and won't destroy their budget, provided he comes back healthy for his 2-3 starts and Crain shores up any holes in their BP and they will get draft picks back after the season. Sox have nothing in the way of mlb ready 1B prospects and left handed power Matt Adams is blocked. Carlos Martinez has a ton of upside but has his stature going against him and the cards have a lot of young pitching and Cleto looks like a really live back end bullpen piece that needs to figure it out at the major league level, i don't see that happening on a contending team.

 

Trade OF Alex Rios [14:$12.5M, 15:$13.5M*] to the texas rangers for 3B Mike Olt, SS Luis Sardinas and LHP Wilmer Font.

 

- Rangers need production out of the outfield, Cruz might get a 50 game suspension and will be a FA after this season and David Murphy is struggling this year. Sox don't have a lot of talent at 3B thats near MLB ready and they don't know exactly what they have in Gillaspie, the rangers tried Olt out at 1B and Corner OF in addition to 3B seeing how he is blocked, He struggled early in his minor league season but appears to be turning it around as of late. Sardinas is currently at A ball and would just continue to give us depth at SS with him Anderson and Hanson in a nice chain coming up through our system. Font is a little over a year removed from TJ surgery and profiles nicely within our organization and has already made it to the show.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,3888104.story

 

 

 

Mr. Hahn doesn't seem totally convinced yet, although what else is he going to say publically at this point.

 

It does seem that most of us here at Soxtalk have resigned ourselves to this fate however, as the debate about whether to be sellers or buyers has seemingly morphed into who we sell, for what and when.

 

After 10 years with Kenny Williams as GM what possible reason is there that people still take GM's statements at face value?

If this is the case I would argue that we keep Crain and sign him for a couple more years. He Jones and Reed, if we believe Addison is the answer to our closer need, can really solidfy that 7-8-9th inning close out of games.

 

No, not at all. Relievers are universally volatile, especially when they have good years late in their careers. Crain is undoubtedly at his absolute best. It would be a very poor business decision to re-sign him after his career year.

Relievers are volatile, but you can't just compare someone like Crain with every other reliever in baseball. Crain has appeared in 527 games & pitched 527 innings, and looking at his peripherals he's never had what you'd really call a horrible season.

 

I think a big part of the volatility of relievers is 1) the injury factor and 2) the fact that most of these guys seem to be 2-pitch power armed pitchers, usually fastball-slider it seems, who really don't have much of chance at long bouts of consistency given the difficulty of having to locate a nasty slider (or whatever else) with regularity to keep the opposition from sitting on the fastball. Crain OTOH has been pretty durable & he certaintly isn't a 2-pitch pitcher. I think he's one of the safer bets out there as far as relievers go, so I don't think it's fair to categorize him with everyone else. Maybe you put him in there with RP who have appeared in at least 250/300+ games and gone for 250/300+ IP.

 

With that said, Crain's having a career year & will likely make himself not only a closer option in the offseason, but maybe a mid-tier one in price as well. But I think if you can trade him for something pretty nice, and then turn around and trade Reed for something really nice, then you think about signing a closer (like Crain) over the offseason, basically using the money you're giving your closer to buy the prospects/young MLB players you get out of Reed. I expect that this sort of thing is going to occur a LOT under the new CBA so I hope the Sox start doing it themselves. I'd only go 3 years tops on any closer though, and I'd much rather pay a little more per year to get a 2 year deal with a team option for a third with a buyout, because then you're potentially positioning yourself to only ask & pay for one good year, then you're looking at trading a guy in the last year of his deal over the following offseason.

Edited June 19, 201313 yr by The Ultimate Champion

Relievers are volatile, but you can't just compare someone like Crain with every other reliever in baseball. Crain has appeared in 527 games & pitched 527 innings, and looking at his peripherals he's never had what you'd really call a horrible season.

 

I think a big part of the volatility of relievers is 1) the injury factor and 2) the fact that most of these guys seem to be 2-pitch power armed pitchers, usually fastball-slider it seems, who really don't have much of chance at long bouts of consistency given the difficulty of having to locate a nasty slider (or whatever else) with regularity to keep the opposition from sitting on the fastball. Crain OTOH has been pretty durable & he certaintly isn't a 2-pitch pitcher. I think he's one of the safer bets out there as far as relievers go, so I don't think it's fair to categorize him with everyone else. Maybe you put him in there with RP who have appeared in at least 250/300+ games and gone for 250/300+ IP.

 

With that said, Crain's having a career year & will likely make himself not only a closer option in the offseason, but maybe a mid-tier one in price as well. But I think if you can trade him for something pretty nice, and then turn around and trade Reed for something really nice, then you think about signing a closer (like Crain) over the offseason, basically using the money you're giving your closer to buy the prospects/young MLB players you get out of Reed. I expect that this sort of thing is going to occur a LOT under the new CBA so I hope the Sox start doing it themselves. I'd only go 3 years tops on any closer though, and I'd much rather pay a little more per year to get a 2 year deal with a team option for a third with a buyout, because then you're potentially positioning yourself to only ask & pay for one good year, then you're looking at trading a guy in the last year of his deal over the following offseason.

 

 

But aren't you running a big risk of losing some White Sox draft pick/s? I can't even remember the vicissitudes of all the new draft pick/compensation rules, I know it has changed from before when there were Type A/B/C tiers and the White Sox went through this issue with Orlando Cabrera after 2008, "playing Chicken" with each other.

 

Surely, the team trading for Crain's going to offer him arbitration, which he's going to turn down at the rate he's going.

 

I'm leery of paying him semi-closer money simply because he was "Crain Wreck" in Minnesota quite often when placed in high pressure situations...and also going off the example of Matt Thornton, where you had a very valuable asset we never flipped while we had the opportunity and now we're basically going to be fortunate just to dump his salary and not get anything back in return.

 

 

 

 

Edited June 19, 201313 yr by caulfield12

Crain hasn't been a model of health either, as he's had troubles with his obliques pretty much every year.

 

And you're right that he'll be a mid-tier closer. If his agent is smart, he'll end up with about $7 mill a year on his next deal. That's too much for a rebuilding White Sox team to pay a set up guy.

To gain compensation for Crain, you would have to offer him a 1 year deal for over $12 million. That isn't going to happen.

To gain compensation for Crain, you would have to offer him a 1 year deal for over $12 million. That isn't going to happen.

 

Not even close

Crain hasn't been a model of health either, as he's had troubles with his obliques pretty much every year.

 

And you're right that he'll be a mid-tier closer. If his agent is smart, he'll end up with about $7 mill a year on his next deal. That's too much for a rebuilding White Sox team to pay a set up guy.

I'd have zero problem paying Crain 3/$21M, or preferably, 2/$17 + a $2M buyout/$6M TO

 

That second deal, you get him for 1 Yr $8M, his second year is $9M + a $2M buyout owed

 

If he's great as a closer that first year, you deal him the following offseason without eating more than $1M & you get a good player/prospect back. If he's decent/average as a closer in 2014 then you deal him over the offseason, covering maybe $3M of the second year and you get a good player back. If he struggles as a closer and shows he's still more of a setup guy, then you deal him still, take on $5M of the second year & $1M of the buyout, and you still get back a worthwhile prospect since he's a top setup man.

 

The downside would be pretty small when you factor in the potential upside of a Reed deal. If you have to pay Crain (or someone like him) between $7-14M in order to acquire for one year of Crain closing plus the prospects/players you deal him for, that shouldn't outweigh the $$$ value of the contributions a Reed trade brings you, because a Reed trade brings you controllable player(s), very likely pre-arb. A deal like that allows the Sox to use a small percentage of payroll space to basically trade Crain twice and Reed once, and the one year you have Crain closing due to Reed's absence is kind of like a time buy on another young arm you have in house or bring in, where you groom that player to fill the closer role post-Crain.

 

I think it's brilliant. Of course I'm a genius so whatever. Sox should do it. Hahn needs to stop calculating his sleep number & make these moves. Bad teams in need of talent ALWAYS should trade their closers, unless they are extremely special Sale/Wagner types but that's extremely rare & not even worth talking about re: Reed.

If we're going to be this bad, shouldn't we hope to be the worst? As in #1 pick bad? I was looking at some of these projections for next year's draft and that SS from Clovis really got me excited.

 

2014 prospects

But aren't you running a big risk of losing some White Sox draft pick/s? I can't even remember the vicissitudes of all the new draft pick/compensation rules, I know it has changed from before when there were Type A/B/C tiers and the White Sox went through this issue with Orlando Cabrera after 2008, "playing Chicken" with each other.

 

Surely, the team trading for Crain's going to offer him arbitration, which he's going to turn down at the rate he's going.

 

I'm leery of paying him semi-closer money simply because he was "Crain Wreck" in Minnesota quite often when placed in high pressure situations...and also going off the example of Matt Thornton, where you had a very valuable asset we never flipped while we had the opportunity and now we're basically going to be fortunate just to dump his salary and not get anything back in return.

I think Crain has enough to do it as a closer. He's failed before, and he's not like a really special closer type, but he'd get 3 outs I think. Of course you are taking a risk, but Crain is a longtime vet & he has a lot more in his arsenal than a guy like Matt Thornton has ever had, so I think he's got some positives going for him.

 

As has been pointed out also, the QO situation under the new CBA is a terrific thing, and it keeps a lot of the uncertainty out of signing RP on the open market, because no one in their right mind is going to offer that much money to a reliever not named Mariano. Crain is simply a rental this year & he'll probably sign over the offseason with whoever offers him the most guaranteed money since this may be his last shot at a big contract, however should the offers be pretty close he might prefer a situation like the Sox where he knows the coaching staff & trainers very well.

If we're going to be this bad, shouldn't we hope to be the worst? As in #1 pick bad? I was looking at some of these projections for next year's draft and that SS from Clovis really got me excited.

 

2014 prospects

The number of losses being higher is great since it puts you in better draft & claiming position, but at the same time, the whole point of all this is to get good again, and to do that you need to develop players. When you get really really really stinking unbelievably bad then it's tough to develop young players, tough to instill that winning attitude, and you risk creating a bad/lazy clubhouse full of young undisciplined kids wanting to be stars/not listening to their coaches, you risk killing the confidence of your young pitchers like Q & Hector, you make it almost impossible to develop a bullpen (and you need to do that since you can't buy more than 1-2 pieces sustainably through FA), etc.

 

The best thing would be for the Sox to lose as many games as possible while at the same time continuing to build their core players in a positive direction. I think that's why Robin is here actually. I don't know if we can do that. It's probably a big reason why Paulie stays too, although I would totally 100% do a "thank you Paulie" trade where I eat all the remaining salary & send him off somewhere where he has a shot at another ring, if that is what he wanted.

You really want to sign Crain? What is he, 34? Guys...

 

You know what make us different than the Astros, Marlins, and Cubs? Lack of long-term dead money committed. All three of those disastrous, long-term rebuild projects had to begin by sacrificing every shred of Major League talent for the sake of clearing dead money off the books. Drastic measures were required to clean it up and THAT's why they all have so far to go now to climb back up.

 

THe White Sox do NOT have that problem. Nearly all of our dead money is off the books after next season in Dunn, Konerko, Thornton, and Floyd. Even Rios' contract turns to an option then. The only albatross we have at that point is Danks, who makes $15m. Alexei will be market rate. This is a massive advantage and this is why a rebuild is okay because it can begin and move quickly. The faster you get the core in place, the faster you can begin to complement it and get a winning team on the field. All the young talent we have can be a part of it, and we don;t have to wait forever for Alfonso Soriano or Carlos Lee to get off the books.

 

The quickest way to lose that advantage is to sign more 34 year old veteran role players to market rate contracts to help our s*** team win 3 more games. Move those guys to get more potential core talent! Let's get this show on the road! No more lipstick on a pig -- we don't have to resign ourselves to a 6 year plan like the others because KW didn't screw us over like that.

You really want to sign Crain? What is he, 34? Guys...

 

You know what make us different than the Astros, Marlins, and Cubs? Lack of long-term dead money committed. All three of those disastrous, long-term rebuild projects had to begin by sacrificing every shred of Major League talent for the sake of clearing dead money off the books. Drastic measures were required to clean it up and THAT's why they all have so far to go now to climb back up.

 

THe White Sox do NOT have that problem. Nearly all of our dead money is off the books after next season in Dunn, Konerko, Thornton, and Floyd. Even Rios' contract turns to an option then. The only albatross we have at that point is Danks, who makes $15m. Alexei will be market rate. This is a massive advantage and this is why a rebuild is okay because it can begin and move quickly. The faster you get the core in place, the faster you can begin to complement it and get a winning team on the field. All the young talent we have can be a part of it, and we don;t have to wait forever for Alfonso Soriano or Carlos Lee to get off the books.

 

The quickest way to lose that advantage is to sign more 34 year old veteran role players to market rate contracts to help our s*** team win 3 more games. Move those guys to get more potential core talent! Let's get this show on the road! No more lipstick on a pig -- we don't have to resign ourselves to a 6 year plan like the others because KW didn't screw us over like that.

+1

Relievers are volatile, but you can't just compare someone like Crain with every other reliever in baseball. Crain has appeared in 527 games & pitched 527 innings, and looking at his peripherals he's never had what you'd really call a horrible season.

 

I think a big part of the volatility of relievers is 1) the injury factor and 2) the fact that most of these guys seem to be 2-pitch power armed pitchers, usually fastball-slider it seems, who really don't have much of chance at long bouts of consistency given the difficulty of having to locate a nasty slider (or whatever else) with regularity to keep the opposition from sitting on the fastball. Crain OTOH has been pretty durable & he certaintly isn't a 2-pitch pitcher. I think he's one of the safer bets out there as far as relievers go, so I don't think it's fair to categorize him with everyone else. Maybe you put him in there with RP who have appeared in at least 250/300+ games and gone for 250/300+ IP.

 

With that said, Crain's having a career year & will likely make himself not only a closer option in the offseason, but maybe a mid-tier one in price as well. But I think if you can trade him for something pretty nice, and then turn around and trade Reed for something really nice, then you think about signing a closer (like Crain) over the offseason, basically using the money you're giving your closer to buy the prospects/young MLB players you get out of Reed. I expect that this sort of thing is going to occur a LOT under the new CBA so I hope the Sox start doing it themselves. I'd only go 3 years tops on any closer though, and I'd much rather pay a little more per year to get a 2 year deal with a team option for a third with a buyout, because then you're potentially positioning yourself to only ask & pay for one good year, then you're looking at trading a guy in the last year of his deal over the following offseason.

 

 

So what you are telling me is that when they do good we dump them?

So what you are telling me is that when they do good we dump them?

 

No, we are telling you that it is better to get something for Crain than nothing.

You have to use every able resource to improve the team. If you can use payroll space to buy players (ala Rios claim) or prospects (sending vets out with cash) then why not?

 

That's a huge reason why I'd love to be able to send out Dunn's deal if someone would take it on (or most of it) to get another player. That $15M next year would be great to put into a front loaded contract, a couple 1-year reclamation types on injured players, etc. I'd say we could eat all of Dunn's remaining salary & trade him but I don't think you get anything for that. Eating Thornton's cash however would bring something back.

You really want to sign Crain? What is he, 34? Guys...

 

You know what make us different than the Astros, Marlins, and Cubs? Lack of long-term dead money committed. All three of those disastrous, long-term rebuild projects had to begin by sacrificing every shred of Major League talent for the sake of clearing dead money off the books. Drastic measures were required to clean it up and THAT's why they all have so far to go now to climb back up.

 

THe White Sox do NOT have that problem. Nearly all of our dead money is off the books after next season in Dunn, Konerko, Thornton, and Floyd. Even Rios' contract turns to an option then. The only albatross we have at that point is Danks, who makes $15m. Alexei will be market rate. This is a massive advantage and this is why a rebuild is okay because it can begin and move quickly. The faster you get the core in place, the faster you can begin to complement it and get a winning team on the field. All the young talent we have can be a part of it, and we don;t have to wait forever for Alfonso Soriano or Carlos Lee to get off the books.

 

The quickest way to lose that advantage is to sign more 34 year old veteran role players to market rate contracts to help our s*** team win 3 more games. Move those guys to get more potential core talent! Let's get this show on the road! No more lipstick on a pig -- we don't have to resign ourselves to a 6 year plan like the others because KW didn't screw us over like that.

 

nicely written

So what you are telling me is that when they do good we dump them?

 

When they are good and our team is bad, yes, that's what we should do. Especially when they are too old to be useful when the team might be good again.

You have to use every able resource to improve the team. If you can use payroll space to buy players (ala Rios claim) or prospects (sending vets out with cash) then why not?

 

That's a huge reason why I'd love to be able to send out Dunn's deal if someone would take it on (or most of it) to get another player. That $15M next year would be great to put into a front loaded contract, a couple 1-year reclamation types on injured players, etc. I'd say we could eat all of Dunn's remaining salary & trade him but I don't think you get anything for that. Eating Thornton's cash however would bring something back.

I can't imagine anyone would be willing to take on all of Dunn's contract for next season. I might be able to be convinced that someone would take on a portion of it. IMO, the Sox should start listening on him if they think they can save somewhere in the range of $6 million next year.

You really want to sign Crain? What is he, 34? Guys...

 

You know what make us different than the Astros, Marlins, and Cubs? Lack of long-term dead money committed. All three of those disastrous, long-term rebuild projects had to begin by sacrificing every shred of Major League talent for the sake of clearing dead money off the books. Drastic measures were required to clean it up and THAT's why they all have so far to go now to climb back up.

 

THe White Sox do NOT have that problem. Nearly all of our dead money is off the books after next season in Dunn, Konerko, Thornton, and Floyd. Even Rios' contract turns to an option then. The only albatross we have at that point is Danks, who makes $15m. Alexei will be market rate. This is a massive advantage and this is why a rebuild is okay because it can begin and move quickly. The faster you get the core in place, the faster you can begin to complement it and get a winning team on the field. All the young talent we have can be a part of it, and we don;t have to wait forever for Alfonso Soriano or Carlos Lee to get off the books.

 

The quickest way to lose that advantage is to sign more 34 year old veteran role players to market rate contracts to help our s*** team win 3 more games. Move those guys to get more potential core talent! Let's get this show on the road! No more lipstick on a pig -- we don't have to resign ourselves to a 6 year plan like the others because KW didn't screw us over like that.

 

The Crain situation is very similar to the AJ one. You are looking at a career year at a time when they should be declining. I wouldn't be a buyer long term at this point for sure.

 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/jim-leyland-w...-181600768.html

 

If the Tigers are realistically looking at Joba Chamberlain, we might as well trade them Reed/Crain/Lindstrom, etc.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/jim-leyland-w...-181600768.html

 

If the Tigers are realistically looking at Joba Chamberlain, we might as well trade them Reed/Crain/Lindstrom, etc.

 

Crain and Lindstrom, yes, but I don't want to give them someone who is going to beat us for the next 3-4 years in Reed.

Crain and Lindstrom, yes, but I don't want to give them someone who is going to beat us for the next 3-4 years in Reed.

 

I don't see any reason to believe Reed's ever going to be a truly dominant closer.

 

He'll have a 75-80-85% save conversion rate, but he's unlikely to be a Top 5-7 guy.

 

Would be glad to revisit this prediction in 5 years....just not seeing it.

 

 

If you get absolutely bowled over by an offer, there's no real reason not to take it at this point. But that's highly unlikely to happen.