Your Realistic 2014 Lineup

[Eminor3rd]

I am not talking about this year, and I don't endorse signing someone for 7 years who is 32 years old. But walking away from every 32 year old is a mistake. There are plenty of 32 year olds who can have a small regression but still be better than what the White Sox can put on the field right now. I think they are going after Abreu and McCann myself. Ideally, they get both, but I'm thinking they would be happy with at least one. I also think they try to add a couple more guys to very short term make good contracts, and depending on how well that goes, trade from their pitching strength to get someone who can hit. They have to bolster the offense, and while they may not be able to totally do so in 1 offseason, I think they will make enough moves to at least keep it interesting. We probably have to hope for Tank and Garcia and Beckham to blossom next year to be elite, but there could be enough to win even if they don't. Look at Cleveland. Reynolds was so bad he was DFA'd. Swisher and Bourne haven't exactly been spectacular, and Asdrubal has been not so good himself, yet they have a shot.

As bad as the Sox have been, they were in a lot of close games where any kind of offense gets them wins. These losses at the end count, but they aren't playing with a full deck because of being out of the race so early.

 

I'm not suggesting walking away from every 32 year old at all. I'm suggesting staying away from paying a guy $100m to be good for 2 years and bad for 3. This was about Choo specifically, because of his flaws and likely market demand. I mentioned a few pages back I'd love to add him at the right price, but not at anything that approaches what I think he'll get.

[Dick Allen]

I'm not suggesting walking away from every 32 year old at all. I'm suggesting staying away from paying a guy $100m to be good for 2 years and bad for 3. This was about Choo specifically, because of his flaws and likely market demand. I mentioned a few pages back I'd love to add him at the right price, but not at anything that approaches what I think he'll get.

I wouldn't give Choo $100 million either.

[witesoxfan]

If someone could guarantee you McCann would be your catcher for the next 4 years and put up a .766 OPS, I bet you would think signing him is a good idea.

 

And Hunter's OBP the second half is cherry picking stats. I don't know how you say that's because he was 38. Don't 25 year olds have halfs like that? I could come up with stretches for every player where they aren't so good. Hunter signed as a FA with the Angels as a 32 year old. He had a higher OPS with the Angels than he did with the Twins.

 

If the White Sox signed McCann for 4 years at $15 million and he put up a .766 OPS over the course of the contract, I'd be upset.

 

I mention Hunter's 2nd half because older players tend to run out of gas sooner because they begin breaking down. 23-25 year olds also do this because their bodies aren't used to the stress of a full season. If Hunter is anything more than a .750 OPS player next year, I will be incredibly surprised, and, personally, I am expecting him to be closer to a .270/.325/.375 player next season.

 

BTW, you keep coming back to Hunter. Why not bring up Adam Dunn? Justin Morneau? Kevin Youkilis? Roberto Alomar? There is no black and white number, but typically, as guys approach their mid 30s, their numbers will typically begin to tail off. Sometimes it can be sudden, sometimes it's slow, sometimes it's not until their late 30s, sometimes it's not until their 40s, but to this day, Father Time is undefeated. If you want to debate the merits of that, then you will be wrong. Robbie Alomar put up a .950 OPS at the age of 32, and it was .700 at 33. Fisk was putting up OPS's in the .820s when he was 40 and 41. He was also one of the greatest baseball players of all time. You want to use him as a baseline comparison to every player who's played the game? You can go ahead, I will stick to logic and reason and generally assume that as players reach their mid 30s, their games will fall off.

[Eminor3rd]

I wouldn't give Choo $100 million either.

 

Then why are you arguing with me, friend?

[balfanman]

Not that huge of a difference considering he played until he was 45, and a catcher. In fact, his age 33 season was one of his worst as a White Sox. I think, while some players fall apart at 32, considering it a general rule, is way off, especially if speed isn't a major component of his effectiveness. Plenty of players are productive until they are 35 or 36 or even 38.

 

People here worried about Detroit being the greatest team ever because they signed a 38 year old and had a 34 year old coming back from injury.

 

I have no proof, and do not pretend to know him personally, but as with all players how do we know that Mr. Fisk never used any "enhancements". It's a little before the Canseco stuff, but just because Canseco was one of the first obvious ones, doesn't mean they weren't in use prior to him.

[Dick Allen]

I have no proof, and do not pretend to know him personally, but as with all players how do we know that Mr. Fisk never used any "enhancements". It's a little before the Canseco stuff, but just because Canseco was one of the first obvious ones, doesn't mean they weren't in use prior to him.

We don't. We also don't really know if any of the guys the Sox may sign are using either. It isn't like everyone is clean.

[Dick Allen]

Then why are you arguing with me, friend?

Not about giving Choo all that money. I think you can still make a nice signing of a guy in that age group. Everyone is going to have his warts. When and if Trout becomes a free agent, you can bet even though he will probably only be 26 or 27, he isn't going to sign for 5 years. Unless you draft them and develop them or only have them a couple of seasons, you are probably going to have most elite players umder comtract for his age 32 season and beyond.

[Dick Allen]

If the White Sox signed McCann for 4 years at $15 million and he put up a .766 OPS over the course of the contract, I'd be upset.

 

I mention Hunter's 2nd half because older players tend to run out of gas sooner because they begin breaking down. 23-25 year olds also do this because their bodies aren't used to the stress of a full season. If Hunter is anything more than a .750 OPS player next year, I will be incredibly surprised, and, personally, I am expecting him to be closer to a .270/.325/.375 player next season.

 

BTW, you keep coming back to Hunter. Why not bring up Adam Dunn? Justin Morneau? Kevin Youkilis? Roberto Alomar? There is no black and white number, but typically, as guys approach their mid 30s, their numbers will typically begin to tail off. Sometimes it can be sudden, sometimes it's slow, sometimes it's not until their late 30s, sometimes it's not until their 40s, but to this day, Father Time is undefeated. If you want to debate the merits of that, then you will be wrong. Robbie Alomar put up a .950 OPS at the age of 32, and it was .700 at 33. Fisk was putting up OPS's in the .820s when he was 40 and 41. He was also one of the greatest baseball players of all time. You want to use him as a baseline comparison to every player who's played the game? You can go ahead, I will stick to logic and reason and generally assume that as players reach their mid 30s, their games will fall off.

I mentioned Hunter because the Tigers were 3 games better than the Sox last year and they supposedly improved tremendously with him and Victor Martinez, who is 34. There is no magic number. I understand the calendar catches up, but at a differetn pace for everyone. Of the guys you mentioned, Dunn is the only one without major physical issues. Is Morneau still elite without the concussion? Does Robby Alomar go from one of the best players in the game to extremely mediocre if he doesn't have back issues? Youk looked to me like he could still play if his back was OK. Getting older with more miles may cause these injuries, but again, I am not advocating signing a 35 year old to an 8 year $120 million contract. Obviously it has to make sense, i don't think giving McCann what you gave Dunn doesn't make sense.

[Chicago White Sox]

I'm going to ask this question again, but what's going to allow us to compete by 2016? The prospect Marty wants us to buy for $60M? We don't have much offensively in the minors to get excited about or that we can honestly rely on to be ready at that time. The new CBA will definitely help us, but it could take 4 or 5 years before the system is fully replenished if all goes well.

 

The good news is we aren't the Oakland A's and don't need to do a small-market rebuild. We can afford to go out into free agency and attempt to fill some of our offensive needs. Fixing this offense is likely a multi-year project unless some of the younger guys like Garcia, Viciedo, & Semien take that next step. If that happens, we can compete as soon as next year with the right offseason moves. If not, we at least have shored up a couple holes and make it easier to compete in 2015, while our minor league system continues to replenish.

 

If you wait until 2016 to make any major moves, you risk having nothing to spend your money on in free agency and will be relying on a bunch of prospects that may or may not exist to fill the majority of the lineup. And even if those prospects are ready, they may not be productive right away, which means 2016 suddenly becomes 2017 or 2018. I just don't see the logic of throwing away 3 or 4 years of a young, talented, cost-controlled rotation when we have the ability to spend a decent amount of money in free agency. If that's the case, just blow the whole damn thing up. Teams with strong starting pitching should not be treading water, because that pitching likely won't last forever.

 

 

 

[Marty34]

I'm going to ask this question again, but what's going to allow us to compete by 2016? The prospect Marty wants us to buy for $60M? We don't have much offensively in the minors to get excited about or that we can honestly rely on to be ready at that time. The new CBA will definitely help us, but it could take 4 or 5 years before the system is fully replenished if all goes well.

 

The good news is we aren't the Oakland A's and don't need to do a small-market rebuild. We can afford to go out into free agency and attempt to fill some of our offensive needs. Fixing this offense is likely a multi-year project unless some of the younger guys like Garcia, Viciedo, & Semien take that next step. If that happens, we can compete as soon as next year with the right offseason moves. If not, we at least have shored up a couple holes and make it easier to compete in 2015, while our minor league system continues to replenish.

 

If you wait until 2016 to make any major moves, you risk having nothing to spend your money on in free agency and will be relying on a bunch of prospects that may or may not exist to fill the majority of the lineup. And even if those prospects are ready, they may not be productive right away, which means 2016 suddenly becomes 2017 or 2018. I just don't see the logic of throwing away 3 or 4 years of a young, talented, cost-controlled rotation when we have the ability to spend a decent amount of money in free agency. If that's the case, just blow the whole damn thing up. Teams with strong starting pitching should not be treading water, because that pitching likely won't last forever.

 

You aren't going to win with the 2016 version of McCann if the team doesn't find young position players over the next two years. By the time 2016 rolls around what kind of numbers is McCann going to put up anyway?

 

[Dick Allen]

You aren't going to win with the 2016 version of McCann if the team doesn't find young position players over the next two years. By the time 2016 rolls around what kind of numbers is McCann going to put up anyway?

Why don't you tell us.

[Marty34]

Why don't you tell us.

 

I thought your idea about not signing players over 30 years old to long contracts was stating the obvious.

[Balta1701]

I thought your idea about not signing players over 30 years old to long contracts was stating the obvious.

He's 6 months older than BJ Upton.

[Eminor3rd]

Not about giving Choo all that money. I think you can still make a nice signing of a guy in that age group. Everyone is going to have his warts. When and if Trout becomes a free agent, you can bet even though he will probably only be 26 or 27, he isn't going to sign for 5 years. Unless you draft them and develop them or only have them a couple of seasons, you are probably going to have most elite players umder comtract for his age 32 season and beyond.

 

Right, but that must be done because it's the price of business. Since it's an open market, the prize goes to who is willing to sacrifice the most. When teams sign those guys, they are committing to pain in the future in order to get what they need to push them over the top. The pain is worth it if and only if you get a flag now.

 

If we were an 88 win team somehow, you'd have to consider guys like Choo. But we're not even an 88 LOSS team. We need guys that project to be assets in the future, not liabilities.

[Marty34]

He's 6 months older than BJ Upton.

 

What's your point, B?

[Chicago White Sox]

You aren't going to win with the 2016 version of McCann if the team doesn't find young position players over the next two years. By the time 2016 rolls around what kind of numbers is McCann going to put up anyway?

McCann is 29 years old right now. He'll be 32 at the start of the 2016 season. I didn't realize guys suddenly fell off at 32 years of age.

 

I've got to be honest, if the Sox can get McCann for 4/$60M they should do it without hesitation. Even if he only gives you two years at catcher, I think that would be a good deal for us. We're talking about his age 30 to 33 seasons. I don't see his bat falling apart during that time-frame.

[Jose Abreu]

McCann is 29 years old right now. He'll be 32 at the start of the 2016 season. I didn't realize guys suddenly fell off at 32 years of age.

 

I've got to be honest, if the Sox can get McCann for 4/$60M they should do it without hesitation. Even if he only gives you two years at catcher, I think that would be a good deal for us. We're talking about his age 30 to 33 seasons. I don't see his bat falling apart during that time-frame.

Sox fans are used to AJ being injured once per 5 years... it would be a tough adjustment seeing McCann on the 15-day DL twice a year.

[Chicago White Sox]

Sox fans are used to AJ being injured once per 5 years... it would be a tough adjustment seeing McCann on the 15-day DL twice a year.

McCann had played in 120+ games for 7 straight years prior to this season. That's pretty damn good for a catcher.

[Jose Abreu]

McCann had played in 120+ games for 7 straight years prior to this season. That's pretty damn good for a catcher.

Maybe twice a year is an overexaggeration, but he has been on the DL for about 5/6 of those years.

[CWSpalehoseCWS]

Maybe twice a year is an overexaggeration, but he has been on the DL for about 5/6 of those years.

 

Sox have the DH though. That *could* help that problem. Might be a risk worth taking.

[witesoxfan]

I'm going to ask this question again, but what's going to allow us to compete by 2016? The prospect Marty wants us to buy for $60M? We don't have much offensively in the minors to get excited about or that we can honestly rely on to be ready at that time. The new CBA will definitely help us, but it could take 4 or 5 years before the system is fully replenished if all goes well.

 

If we are going to continue on with this "what pieces do you have that will play on the next winner," then I think the Sox have 3 starters on the roster right now - Semien, Garcia, and Garcia. Semien and Avisail will be the two bigger ones of that group, but I think Leury is going to be the shortstop on that team as a good defender, good enough bat.

 

At that point, I think you need to find 4 more pieces with at least 2 of those being very good players. My guess is that Abreu is priority #1 this offseason. He is the perfect fit for this team and they are in a very good position to sign him (and I think they will). McCann is probably #2, but I could see someone like Boston signing him, especially if they get knocked out this year. I'm not counting on him, but he would be a great fit too.

 

I also think they'll look to move one of Quintana or Santiago for a young piece. It was mentioned off-hand either here or somewhere else, but Carlos Gomez is a guy I could see the Sox having interest in too, especially with how badly the Brewers need pitching. You deal Santiago or Quintana, Trayce Thompson, and a couple other smaller prospects and you have a CF and 3 or 6-7 hitter. Then you can make a move for someone at 3B. I've suggested Sandoval on several occasions (deal Viciedo/De Aza and Beckham with the idea that the Giants then move Scutaro to 3B; for argument's sake, we'll say it's De Aza) so I'll stick with that even if it wouldn't work for now primarily because it's not the names but the ideas that matter at this point.

 

Without having dealt Ramirez, the lineup going into next year (and, as always, this is my personal take but not necessarily what it would actually be)

 

Semien - 2B

McCann - C

Gomez - CF

Abreu - 1B

Sandoval - 3B

Dunn - DH

Garcia - RF

Viciedo - LF

Ramirez - SS

 

Phegley/Flowers - C

Garcia - 2B/SS/3B/CF

Gillaspie - 1B/3B

Danks - LF/CF/RF

 

Legitimately, that team has a shot to compete and be very good in the Central. It also has a chance to struggle with on base percentage and be a very hit or miss offense. However, the defense should be good all around and there are back ups that are valuable defensive players too. Overall, I would expect that team to win 85 games with a lowside being about 75-78 wins and an upside being between 95-97 wins but the more important aspect of that offense is that you suddenly have pieces to build around throughout the lineup - the only hole you have going into 2015 is an opening at DH, and at that point I think you want to try and use it as a way to get guys days off. That's getting ahead of ourselves.

 

---

 

This is one example I just spitballed. If you were actually in charge of the White Sox, there are several moves you can make to be competing by next season, let alone by 2016, without giving up valuable time-controlled minor leaguers (what little the Sox have anyways).

 

---

 

(also, the idea of "buying" a B-prospect for $30 million is ridiculous and among the worst possible use of resources)

[Balta1701]

You deal Santiago or Quintana, Trayce Thompson, and a couple other smaller prospects and you have a CF and 3 or 6-7 hitter.

I'd call that an enormous, worse-than-kenny williams type overpay.

[witesoxfan]

I'd call that an enormous, worse-than-kenny williams type overpay.

 

I think you are overvaluing Quintana and Santiago (especially Santiago) and undervaluing Carlos Gomez. Gomez has been worth 6.5 fWAR this year and has been the 3rd best outfielder in the game. Over his last 991 plate appearances, he's put up .273/.324/.477/.801 splits and he has been the best defensive CFer in the game for full time players over the last 2 seasons.

 

If you could get Gomez for just one of those two, or just one of those two plus Trayce, then you do so in a heartbeat.

 

Beyond any of that, I want to point out again that I was just spitballing and I showed how quickly you can put together a decent team with a little ingenuity without giving up any real key minor league prospects.

[Balta1701]

I think you are overvaluing Quintana and Santiago (especially Santiago) and undervaluing Carlos Gomez. Gomez has been worth 6.5 fWAR this year and has been the 3rd best outfielder in the game. Over his last 991 plate appearances, he's put up .273/.324/.477/.801 splits and he has been the best defensive CFer in the game for full time players over the last 2 seasons.

 

If you could get Gomez for just one of those two, or just one of those two plus Trayce, then you do so in a heartbeat.

 

Beyond any of that, I want to point out again that I was just spitballing and I showed how quickly you can put together a decent team with a little ingenuity without giving up any real key minor league prospects.

For comparison though, Quintana is on his way to a 4 fWAR season and has 2 more years remaining where he's pre-arb. Carlos Gomez is paid $7 million next year whereas Quintana is paid $500k unless we extend him.

 

if 1 WAR = $6 million, then when you factor in the contracts Carlos Gomez right now is only worth ~1 WAR more than Quintana/$6 million more right now, and Quintana is younger and has every reason based on this season to think he can continue to improve next year.

 

Given all those things I'd take the slightly younger player, but then if you throw in the fact that there should be a major premium on cost-controlled, left-handed pitching, Quintana alone might well be an overpay for him.

 

Santiago I'd be more willing to consider because the Sox have jerked him around and blew a year of pre-arb time for him out of the bullpen these last 2 seasons.

[witesoxfan]

For comparison though, Quintana is on his way to a 4 fWAR season and has 2 more years remaining where he's pre-arb. Carlos Gomez is paid $7 million next year whereas Quintana is paid $500k unless we extend him.

 

if 1 WAR = $6 million, then when you factor in the contracts Carlos Gomez right now is only worth ~1 WAR more than Quintana/$6 million more right now, and Quintana is younger and has every reason based on this season to think he can continue to improve next year.

 

Given all those things I'd take the slightly younger player, but then if you throw in the fact that there should be a major premium on cost-controlled, left-handed pitching, Quintana alone might well be an overpay for him.

 

Santiago I'd be more willing to consider because the Sox have jerked him around and blew a year of pre-arb time for him out of the bullpen these last 2 seasons.

 

This is what I would prefer too. I like Santiago, and I think he has a high ceiling, but I also don't think he's likely to get there and that he'll peak out as an inconsistent #3-4 starter (which still has value).

 

Still, the names themselves aren't important. Even if the Sox dealt Quintana instead of Santiago, I don't think there would be a huge difference at the end of the year.