Tyler Flowers's lucky, lucky month

[DashFan]

This point may have already been raised, but could it be less about luck and more about the change we've all seen in Tyler's approach at the plate? I'm a stats guy too and I don't mean to go all Hawk TWTW on anyone but I don't recall T Flo taking so many balls the opposite way in years past. I'm thinking we are going to see his BABIP stay up for the season (probably not that high though but above his usual average) as long as he continues to take balls to right center and up the middle. If he starts trying to pull pitches he shouldn't again he will be back to the Tyler Flowers of old.

[witesoxfan]

This point may have already been raised, but could it be less about luck and more about the change we've all seen in Tyler's approach at the plate? I'm a stats guy too and I don't mean to go all Hawk TWTW on anyone but I don't recall T Flo taking so many balls the opposite way in years past. I'm thinking we are going to see his BABIP stay up for the season (probably not that high though but above his usual average) as long as he continues to take balls to right center and up the middle. If he starts trying to pull pitches he shouldn't again he will be back to the Tyler Flowers of old.

 

It's not impossible, but it's the next tier down from that. Over the course of a 162 game season, no player has ever had a BABIP this high. Pitchers will make adjustments and he'll stop hitting line drives, or he'll start trying to hit for power, or something, and the numbers will come down.

[DashFan]

It's not impossible, but it's the next tier down from that. Over the course of a 162 game season, no player has ever had a BABIP this high. Pitchers will make adjustments and he'll stop hitting line drives, or he'll start trying to hit for power, or something, and the numbers will come down.

 

I don't doubt that. His numbers right now are astronomical. I just think there may be good reason to believe we will see Tyler 2.0 for a full season and be able to assess the catching situation after that. I still think he's a talented player and maybe he's finally figuring things out.

 

I was quick to dismiss Steverson's contributions but listening to him on white sox weekly, I'm starting to wonder if he's actually getting through to these players after all. With players like Tank, you'd easily be able to say that he is a young player still learning to hit MLB pitching - but Steverson has guys like Alexei and Tyler making some very visible adjustments at the plate. Occasionally they get away from it and you see flashes of last season but for the most part they seem to be buying into the new approach.

 

I liked Steverson's focus on collecting data and video to first convince players they need to adjust, then coming up with adjustments and things to work on. I feel like that may be the difference with the Steverson era. I don't think the last couple of guys were as good at getting their message across. Of course I may be eating these words in September

Edited April 29, 2014 by DashFan

[Eminor3rd]

I don't doubt that. His numbers right now are astronomical. I just think there may be good reason to believe we will see Tyler 2.0 for a full season and be able to assess the catching situation after that. I still think he's a talented player and maybe he's finally figuring things out.

 

I was quick to dismiss Steverson's contributions but listening to him on white sox weekly, I'm starting to wonder if he's actually getting through to these players after all. With players like Tank, you'd easily be able to say that he is a young player still learning to hit MLB pitching - but Steverson has guys like Alexei and Tyler making some very visible adjustments at the plate. Occasionally they get away from it and you see flashes of last season but for the most part they seem to be buying into the new approach.

 

I liked Steverson's focus on collecting data and video to first convince players they need to adjust, then coming up with adjustments and things to work on. I feel like that may be the difference with the Steverson era. I don't think the last couple of guys were as good at getting their message across. Of course I may be eating these words in September

 

Yeah, this sis what ScottyDo/chitownsportsfan were exploring. His new approach has "earned" him a .357 BABIP -- he has roughly 11 more hits than we'd expect based on what typically happens from his batted ball profile. That's a far cry from .600, though. So if he continues to perform exactly how he has been performing, we would expect his BABIP to regress toward .357, landing probably around .400 or so given that 5/6 of the season remain. Realistically, he probably won't maintain a 32% LD rate, however, and many of those LDs will turn into FBs, and his xBABIP will drop from .357, and then so his actual BABIP will drop farther.

 

But all this could happen and he could still have a really good season.

[southsider2k5]

Yeah, this sis what ScottyDo/chitownsportsfan were exploring. His new approach has "earned" him a .357 BABIP -- he has roughly 11 more hits than we'd expect based on what typically happens from his batted ball profile. That's a far cry from .600, though. So if he continues to perform exactly how he has been performing, we would expect his BABIP to regress toward .357, landing probably around .400 or so given that 5/6 of the season remain. Realistically, he probably won't maintain a 32% LD rate, however, and many of those LDs will turn into FBs, and his xBABIP will drop from .357, and then so his actual BABIP will drop farther.

 

But all this could happen and he could still have a really good season.

 

I think a large part of his "luck" has been a better approach combined with knowing what the pitchers are getting him out with. These are major league hitters. If you tell them that a certain pitch in a certain part of the zone is coming, they will hit it. For Flowers the scouting report on him has been getting him out with junk going away from him. Now that he seems to realize this is what pitchers are doing, plus having a plan to attack it, his numbers look crazy.

 

Those numbers will change once pitchers change their plan of attack, and Flowers has to adjust.

 

[Feeky Magee]

I think a large part of his "luck" has been a better approach combined with knowing what the pitchers are getting him out with.

It's actually a small part, from what I can make out. .357 over whatever his career BABIP was before the start of the year (currently .310 lifetime) is the result of the things you could put down to Flowers's improvement, .600 over .357 down to luck. So probably about .060 down to Flowers and about .240 down to luck.

[Princess Dye]

There's no question that his stats are coming down it's just a matter of how gigantic a drop it will be. The real question is-- is he going to return to being 2013 T-Flo who had the injury...or is he still having a chance to be better-than-AJ on both sides of the ball, so to speak

 

Normal year AJ was a 740ish OPS guy, and Tyler before the shoulder thing was a 700 OPS guy...so that's still the realm we're talking about. My expectation would be Tyler ends up being a little worse than AJ with the bat and better w/ the glove. And the question is what does that net him in arb etc.

 

 

 

 

Also should be noted that AJs OBP was dependent on swing-at-everything batting average bloat.. whereas Tyler in the minors showed plate patience despite K-ing tons. They'll forever be compared but of course are very different players.

Edited April 29, 2014 by Jose Paniagua

[southsider2k5]

It's actually a small part, from what I can make out. .357 over whatever his career BABIP was before the start of the year (currently .310 lifetime) is the result of the things you could put down to Flowers's improvement, .600 over .357 down to luck. So probably about .060 down to Flowers and about .240 down to luck.

 

I don't buy that. These are major league hitters. If I tell a major league hitter, than I am going to throw you a thigh-high slider moving from the outside corner to just off of the plate, you can probably hit that pitch if you have the right approach. You aren't going to do anything with it if you are trying to pull it, which Flowers spent all of last year trying to do. But if you are willing to sacrifice the power, and hit it into RCF, your odds go WAY up. Again, this is if you know this is coming, meaning you aren't guessing up there. The odds of anyone hitting a ball hard go WAY up when you know what is coming. Seeing as this is how pitchers have gotten Flowers out for a long time, someone FINALLY got through to the kid that this is exactly what is coming.

 

That isn't luck. That is a good game plan.

 

Again, the problem will come when pitchers start doing something different, and I think that different will be the letter high fastball. He still strikes out on that pitch an awful lot.

 

The stats can tell you some things, but so can watching the games.

[Feeky Magee]

I don't buy that. These are major league hitters. If I tell a major league hitter, than I am going to throw you a thigh-high slider moving from the outside corner to just off of the plate, you can probably hit that pitch if you have the right approach. You aren't going to do anything with it if you are trying to pull it, which Flowers spent all of last year trying to do. But if you are willing to sacrifice the power, and hit it into RCF, your odds go WAY up. Again, this is if you know this is coming, meaning you aren't guessing up there. The odds of anyone hitting a ball hard go WAY up when you know what is coming. Seeing as this is how pitchers have gotten Flowers out for a long time, someone FINALLY got through to the kid that this is exactly what is coming.

 

That isn't luck. That is a good game plan.

 

Again, the problem will come when pitchers start doing something different, and I think that different will be the letter high fastball. He still strikes out on that pitch an awful lot.

 

The stats can tell you some things, but so can watching the games.

So you're saying that major leaguers can greatly affect their BABIP through positive adjustments?

[Dick Allen]

I don't think major league hitters could maintain a .600 babip in batting practice with a defense in place. Flowers has been lucky as can be. Who cares? Maybe he has a .310 babip the rest of the year. He still comes out ahead.

[southsider2k5]

So you're saying that major leaguers can greatly affect their BABIP through positive adjustments?

 

Absolutely. That is why you make adjustments.

[Eminor3rd]

I don't buy that. These are major league hitters. If I tell a major league hitter, than I am going to throw you a thigh-high slider moving from the outside corner to just off of the plate, you can probably hit that pitch if you have the right approach. You aren't going to do anything with it if you are trying to pull it, which Flowers spent all of last year trying to do. But if you are willing to sacrifice the power, and hit it into RCF, your odds go WAY up. Again, this is if you know this is coming, meaning you aren't guessing up there. The odds of anyone hitting a ball hard go WAY up when you know what is coming. Seeing as this is how pitchers have gotten Flowers out for a long time, someone FINALLY got through to the kid that this is exactly what is coming.

 

That isn't luck. That is a good game plan.

 

Again, the problem will come when pitchers start doing something different, and I think that different will be the letter high fastball. He still strikes out on that pitch an awful lot.

 

The stats can tell you some things, but so can watching the games.

 

I mean I don't think anyone is disagreeing with your logic, the issue is the degree that what you're mentioning can affect his onfield results.

 

If you believe that Flowers has "adjusted" himself into a sustainable .600 BABIP, you believe he has the best bat control of any player in the entire history of baseball by a very wide margin. No one has ever come even remotely close to sustaining that kind of BABIP for a significant enough length of time as to suggest it was true talent.

 

Career BABIP all-time: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=12,d

Edited April 30, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[southsider2k5]

I mean I don't think anyone is disagreeing with your logic, the issue is the degree that what you're mentioning can affect his onfield results.

 

If you believe that Flowers has "adjusted" himself into a sustainable .600 BABIP, you believe he has the best bat control of any player in the entire history of baseball by a very wide margin. No one has ever come even remotely close to sustaining that kind of BABIP for a significant enough length of time as to suggest it was true talent.

 

Career BABIP all-time: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=12,d

 

I never once said it was sustainable. Never.

[LDF]

cough .... cough .... PED .... cough .... cough

[ScottyDo]

cough .... cough .... PED .... cough .... cough

...wut? Because he turned into a slap hitter?

[Eminor3rd]

I never once said it was sustainable. Never.

 

Well then what didn't you "buy" about Feeky's post?

[southsider2k5]

Well then what didn't you "buy" about Feeky's post?

 

There is more to the game of baseball than statistics. If you watched the games at all, you would know exactly what is going on with Tyler Flowers. It isn't luck, it is adjustment and game planning. It won't be bad luck when the pitchers adjust to his adjustments. I think in this case people are misusing the numbers when the answer is right in front of them.

[Eminor3rd]

There is more to the game of baseball than statistics. If you watched the games at all, you would know exactly what is going on with Tyler Flowers. It isn't luck, it is adjustment and game planning. It won't be bad luck when the pitchers adjust to his adjustments. I think in this case people are misusing the numbers when the answer is right in front of them.

 

That's what I'm saying: everyone agrees that he has made adjustments and has improved. The question being discussed is "have those adjustments really turned him into a .350/.400/.450 hitter?"

 

From watching the games, I can tell you it seems that he's been making more consistent contact than last year, but he's also been spraying ducksnorts and seeing-eye grounders around a bit too. To my eye, it looked like he was swinging softer to prioritize contact over power, and that he was getting extremely lucky with where the ball was going/landing.

 

Examining his Pitch F/X data confirms that he's been swinging at fewer bad pitches and making more contact when he does swing. Examining his BABIP and batted ball data tells us that (1) his LD% is sky high, but in line with what the best hitters in the league get each year. So it seems he has made legitimate improvements that have led to harder contact, and (2) the disparity between his xBABIP and BABIP is very, very wide. Taking a closer look reveals that both his grounders and fly balls have been turning into hits at much higher rates than even elite hitters get, let alone average hitters.

 

So the answer we come up with, and pretty confidently, is: Tyler Flowers has indeed changed his approach for the better, but that it has not turned him into a .350/.400/.450 hitter. The numbers have showed me personally that he is playing better than I thought he was, but confirms that it simply cannot last at the current rate. I would have been wrong about this, despite watching all but maybe 3 games so far, had I not examined the numbers.

Edited April 30, 2014 by Eminor3rd

[witesoxfan]

I mean I don't think anyone is disagreeing with your logic, the issue is the degree that what you're mentioning can affect his onfield results.

 

If you believe that Flowers has "adjusted" himself into a sustainable .600 BABIP, you believe he has the best bat control of any player in the entire history of baseball by a very wide margin. No one has ever come even remotely close to sustaining that kind of BABIP for a significant enough length of time as to suggest it was true talent.

 

Career BABIP all-time: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=12,d

 

The most surprising name on that list, to me, is Austin Jackson. Not because he's poor hitter, but because it shows how the evolution of the game has changed over 100 years. Old school thought was always to do what you could to put the ball in play, and while overall stuff has improved over the last 100 years, you sure don't see guys striking out less than 10% of the time anymore (nevermind the 1.7% that Wee Willie Keeler did). Guys are taught that striking out isn't as bad anymore and that a lot of times it's better to try and make good, hard contact on the ball rather than making weak outs.

 

There are other guys on that list with high K% too - Choo, Trout, even Votto and Jeter, comparatively speaking.

[Eminor3rd]

The most surprising name on that list, to me, is Austin Jackson. Not because he's poor hitter, but because it shows how the evolution of the game has changed over 100 years. Old school thought was always to do what you could to put the ball in play, and while overall stuff has improved over the last 100 years, you sure don't see guys striking out less than 10% of the time anymore (nevermind the 1.7% that Wee Willie Keeler did). Guys are taught that striking out isn't as bad anymore and that a lot of times it's better to try and make good, hard contact on the ball rather than making weak outs.

 

There are other guys on that list with high K% too - Choo, Trout, even Votto and Jeter, comparatively speaking.

 

Yeah, makes you wonder if it's a generational talent thing (pitchers are super good and/or hitters just extra bad at the moment) or if it's genuinely a coaching philosophy to prefer extra bases to on-base rates.

 

I actually tend to think it's more of the former -- it nicely explains how pitchers could throw 400 innings in a season if they simply weren't throwing nearly as hard. I wish we had contact rates for guys back then.

[Dick Allen]

There is more to the game of baseball than statistics. If you watched the games at all, you would know exactly what is going on with Tyler Flowers. It isn't luck, it is adjustment and game planning. It won't be bad luck when the pitchers adjust to his adjustments. I think in this case people are misusing the numbers when the answer is right in front of them.

To say jam shots into RF or little loopers off the end of the bat just over the SS's head for a single or swinging bunts isn't luck is crazy. Of course it's luck. It will be offset by line outs right at somebody or flyballs caught at the base of the CF fence against 30 MPH winds. Whatever the cutoff is for BABIP for considering one lucky, hopefully Flowers stays above it.

 

I do know one thing, if we all knew Flowers would have 3 extra base hits, 1 homer, 5 walks and his current K-rate one month into the season, and nothing else, we would think he was having an even worse season than imagined. I do agree with the premise his new approach probably enhances his chances at being "lucky", but IMO unless you are hanging ropes all over the place, even then it's debatable, and Tyler is not, a .600 BABIP is incredible luck.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

That's what I'm saying: everyone agrees that he has made adjustments and has improved. The question being discussed is "have those adjustments really turned him into a .350/.400/.450 hitter?"

 

From watching the games, I can tell you it seems that he's been making more consistent contact than last year, but he's also been spraying ducksnorts and seeing-eye grounders around a bit too. To my eye, it looked like he was swinging softer to prioritize contact over power, and that he was getting extremely lucky with where the ball was going/landing.

 

Examining his Pitch F/X data confirms that he's been swinging at fewer bad pitches and making more contact when he does swing. Examining his BABIP and batted ball data tells us that (1) his LD% is sky high, but in line with what the best hitters in the league get each year. So it seems he has made legitimate improvements that have led to harder contact, and (2) the disparity between his xBABIP and BABIP is very, very wide. Taking a closer look reveals that both his grounders and fly balls have been turning into hits at much higher rates than even elite hitters get, let alone average hitters.

 

So the answer we come up with, and pretty confidently, is: Tyler Flowers has indeed changed his approach for the better, but that it has not turned him into a .350/.400/.450 hitter. The numbers have showed me personally that he is playing better than I thought he was, but confirms that it simply cannot last at the current rate. I would have been wrong about this, despite watching all but maybe 3 games so far, had I not examined the numbers.

 

Luck implies that if the pitchers made no changes, Flowers would revert back to his old self. As I have consistently said, he will take a plunge when pitchers throw out the old book on Flowers and make new adjustments. That isn't "bad luck" or a lack of "luck". That is baseball, and pitchers trying to get out batters. All those numbers say it what I can see on my TV screen. Flowers and probably Steverson figured some things out and have plan of attack for how pitchers are going after Flowers. When the pitchers change, so will Flowers numbers. That has nothing to do with luck. And no has ever said the guy was a .350 hitter. That is absurd. He won't be a .350 hitter because pitchers won't pitch him the same way.

 

[Feeky Magee]

Luck implies that if the pitchers made no changes, Flowers would revert back to his old self. As I have consistently said, he will take a plunge when pitchers throw out the old book on Flowers and make new adjustments. That isn't "bad luck" or a lack of "luck". That is baseball, and pitchers trying to get out batters. All those numbers say it what I can see on my TV screen. Flowers and probably Steverson figured some things out and have plan of attack for how pitchers are going after Flowers. When the pitchers change, so will Flowers numbers. That has nothing to do with luck. And no has ever said the guy was a .350 hitter. That is absurd. He won't be a .350 hitter because pitchers won't pitch him the same way.

So theoretically, if pitchers continued to throw to him as they have been (striking him out 34.5% of the time, as opposed to 34.2% of the time last year), would you expect him to maintain a BABIP close to .600?

[Rowand44]

The guy has had a ton of soft singles, he's clearly been very lucky so far.

[southsider2k5]

So theoretically, if pitchers continued to throw to him as they have been (striking him out 34.5% of the time, as opposed to 34.2% of the time last year), would you expect him to maintain a BABIP close to .600?

 

Yes. I would. These are major league baseball hitters. When they KNOW what is coming, they can hit it. At that point it becomes glorified batting practice. That is why the arts of stealing signs, seeing where catchers set up, picking up pitchers who tip their pitches, etc, are so important. If it were simply "luck" in theory there should be no difference between knowing what pitch is coming, and not knowing, as it relates to the result of how a ball is hit. If BABIP were simply a measure of "luck" there should be no difference in results if you know what is coming, or if you don't. We all know that isn't true. Again, watching batting practice. In an extremely simplified version of baseball, these guys kill the ball.