He's nowhere close to a 2 WAR pitcher. He is closer to a .5 WAR pitcher, which is the issue: we're paying 15 mill a year for a 5th starter.

 

Fangraphs has him at .8 WAR now, so on pace for 1.2 WAR if he doesn't improve any.

Fangraphs has him at .8 WAR now, so on pace for 1.2 WAR if he doesn't improve any.

That'll have gone back a good bit now, today's start pushed his FIP 21 points worse. He now has a 4.84 FIP in 136 IP. Jeremy Guthrie is the only other starter with a 4.84 FIP, in 132 IP and his WAR is .3.

That'll have gone back a good bit now, today's start pushed his FIP 21 points worse. He now has a 4.84 FIP in 136 IP. Jeremy Guthrie is the only other starter with a 4.84 FIP, in 132 IP and his WAR is .3.

 

God, I hate to say this, but...so? You can't get completely wrapped up in numbers. He was facing a good offensive team with trade rumors on the mind and he was less than precise. He's still human.

 

You expect him to be an average pitcher going forward. That's a 2 WAR starter. It's less than his $/WAR value, but that's why you keep him. The Sox marginal value for a starter right now is extreme. John Danks offers some hope for good productivity with the floor of an average starter.

 

I haven't checked yet, but I bet the bWAR (or RA9-WAR) is fairly decent. Danks, while not Buehrle, is still a good fielding pitcher with a good pick off move. Those types tend to outpitch peripherals.

God, I hate to say this, but...so? You can't get completely wrapped up in numbers. He was facing a good offensive team with trade rumors on the mind and he was less than precise. He's still human.

 

You expect him to be an average pitcher going forward. That's a 2 WAR starter. It's less than his $/WAR value, but that's why you keep him. The Sox marginal value for a starter right now is extreme. John Danks offers some hope for good productivity with the floor of an average starter.

 

I haven't checked yet, but I bet the bWAR (or RA9-WAR) is fairly decent. Danks, while not Buehrle, is still a good fielding pitcher with a good pick off move. Those types tend to outpitch peripherals.

I was simply correcting someone who said his WAR was .8.

 

Why do you expect him to be worth 2 WAR going forward? His velocity has fallen from last year, his strikeouts are essentially exactly the same, and his walks have nearly doubled. And last year he was worth .3 WAR, albeit with less innings than he should get going forward and with a flukily high home run rate.

 

Also, if Danks is so good at outpitching his peripherals, how come his career numbers essentially exactly match his peripherals?

 

ERA: 4.22

FIP: 4.33

xFIP: 4.21

SIERA: 4.23

So this might not been as close as we would have hoped, and I am told the money and players changing hands pretty much put them at an impasse.

 

no need to answer this, but fwiw I wonder if the team or teams that may have had dialogue

with the sox, did they get something close to what was being discuss with the sox?

So this might not been as close as we would have hoped, and I am told the money and players changing hands pretty much put them at an impasse.

 

do you know of the teams that were discussed for Danks and money or players?

That'll have gone back a good bit now, today's start pushed his FIP 21 points worse. He now has a 4.84 FIP in 136 IP. Jeremy Guthrie is the only other starter with a 4.84 FIP, in 132 IP and his WAR is .3.

 

Fangraphs shows .5

 

There are various ways off calculating WAR so you may have been looking at something different from what I was.

So this might not been as close as we would have hoped, and I am told the money and players changing hands pretty much put them at an impasse.

 

In other words, the Yankees aren't completely idiotic.

Hahn pretty clearly said that almost all of the rumors this year about the Sox were garbage during a discussion about Danks.