Basically, all three of Chris's pitches are elite this year: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-sale-...h-by-diversity/

 

We tend to take the greatest players for granted, so it ought to tell you something when even one of the established elites is raising eyebrows. Chris Sale‘s one of the very best starting pitchers in the world, of that there’s no question, and still he’s recently been generating all kinds of positive attention. Just Monday, he struck out 14 against the Astros in eight innings. It was his fourth consecutive start with double-digit strikeouts, and his fourth consecutive start with at least 20 missed bats. I won’t go through the specifics, but in terms of unhittability, Sale just tied one record with Sandy Koufax. He set a couple new all-time White Sox records, and he became the first pitcher to do a particular something since Randy Johnson. This is Chris Sale at the top of his game, and no one’s allowed a lower contact rate over the season’s last month.

 

Sale has established a few new personal bests, which, again, is a difficult thing to do, when you’ve been as excellent as he has. It seems like forever ago that he owned a near-6 ERA and people were wondering whether something was wrong. He’s yielded eight runs in six starts, he’s on a career-low FIP, and he’s on a career-low xFIP. When you look at the overall picture, at this point Sale looks more or less like himself. But underneath, you can see him evolving, and now Sale’s turned into one of the rarest sorts of pitchers.

 

You know about Sale’s slider. Sale’s always had a wicked slider, and while he started to move away from it some a year ago, it’s come back lately, and it’s never not been a dangerous weapon. Sale knows full well what his breaking ball can do.

 

You know about Sale’s changeup. It’s the changeup Sale leaned on more often as he decreased the usage of his slider. On a per-pitch basis, Sale’s changeup has his highest value, and while those numbers can occasionally deceive, they get the general message across. Sale’s got an awesome breaking ball, and he’s got an awesome offspeed pitch.

 

And the fastball? Mike Petriello wrote about Sale’s fastball in January. But it only continues to improve. This season, when Sale has thrown a four-seamer, a sixth of them have been cut on and missed. A third of all swing attempts have whiffed or, at least, tipped the ball into the glove. Consider this diversity of repertoire. What Sale can do is extremely uncommon.

 

On a hunch, I turned to the Baseball Prospectus PITCHf/x leaderboards. I looked at data for 2015, and I isolated pitch types that pitchers have thrown at least 100 times. I hunted for pitches with a swinging-strike rate of at least 15%. Not surprisingly, there’s no pitcher in baseball right now who’s thrown four of those pitches. These are the guys who have thrown three qualifying pitches:

 

Chris Sale

Corey Kluber

Matt Harvey

 

Sale qualifies because of his four-seamer, slider, and changeup. Kluber qualifies because of his four-seamer, slider, and cutter. Harvey qualifies because of his slider, changeup, and curveball. And that’s it. Those are the three names. And one could make the argument that Sale is the most impressive, here, because he so rarely has the platoon advantage, and because he’s thrown the slider 15% of the time. Kluber’s thrown 11% four-seamers; Harvey’s thrown 11% changeups. And Harvey, of course, is in the National League.

 

In a sense, Sale has peers, and in another sense, Sale stands alone. Whether he’s really alone doesn’t change the point — he’s absolutely terrific, and he’s joined the exclusive three-weapon club because of the improvement of his heater. From Brooks Baseball, we can observe Sale’s evolving whiff rates:

 

[CHART]

 

All the pitches have higher rates in 2015, but you can see the four-seamer cross the 15% threshold. Relatedly, Sale has been throwing his four-seamer higher in the zone — or beyond it — making it all the more difficult to catch up to:

 

[CHART]

 

Sale has increasingly embraced the putaway elevated fastball, and so against righties — who he faces by far most often — they have to look for fastballs up, sliders down and in, or changeups down and away. Sale’s command is good enough that he can put those pitches in the zone when he needs to, and he can expand when he’s ahead in the count. So there’s no predicting what you’re going to get. But one clear trend: more and more of Sale’s strikeouts are coming on heaters.

 

[CHART]

 

At one point, early in his career, Sale got an eighth of his strikeouts on four-seamers. That’s up now to a half. Against the Astros on Monday, Sale recorded eight fastball strikeouts, establishing a new high. There’s nothing really different about the fastball — Sale just uses it better, which makes all his pitches better. Which is something Sale didn’t need, but I guess he feels greedy.

 

Now for some satisfying clips, for your perusal. Sale using a fastball for a strikeout on Monday:

 

[GIF]

 

Sale using a slider for a strikeout on Monday:

 

[GIF]

 

Sale using a changeup for a strikeout on Monday:

 

[GIF]

 

Sale’s throwing a career-high rate of first-pitch strikes. So he’s also throwing a career-high rate of pitches in pitcher-friendly counts. Regardless of the count, Sale isn’t afraid to throw any of his weapons, but when he’s ahead, he gets to make the zone a little bit bigger, which makes the task of hitting him unspeakably unfair. More than ever, he’s able to locate his pitches appropriately for the circumstances, and it’s just impossible to defend against everything. Sale can pick from the four quadrants, and from top to bottom velocity he spans nearly 20 miles per hour. There’s no such thing as being ready to hit him. There’s only being ready for a mistake. He’s making fewer of those.

It's like the least least surprising thing ever how much better he is with a proper 3-pitch mix rather than using the slider less than 10 percent of the time

Chris Sale being a god right now is the reason we can't blow it up. Wasting his prime would be a crime against baseball.

So this Sale guy is pretty good? Should I try to get him in my fantasy league? TNX>

Chris Sale being a god right now is the reason we can't blow it up. Wasting his prime would be a crime against baseball.

Dunno, it's this logic that left us in the sh*t by going for it a year too early. Don't force it just because you have good players in your prime. I'm sure Sale will still be really good in 2016/2017 when it would have made more sense to go for it.

At this stage I think it's fair to say Sale's the best pitcher the Sox have had in the Reinsdorf era, and it's not particularly close.

It's like the least least surprising thing ever how much better he is with a proper 3-pitch mix rather than using the slider less than 10 percent of the time

 

Three pitches, I think, is the ultimate requirement for consistently being able to pitch well deep into the game, because it gives you a weapon for the third time through the lineup. The other night we saw him go fastball/slider almost exclusively the first time through, start adding the change in tough spots the second time through (and honestly it didn't look real good at first), and then start to lean on the change as a wipeout the third time through (and it looked fantastic).

 

I'm starting to wonder if there's a correlation between those "one bad inning" guys (like Edwin Jackson, John Danks, etc.) and the number of legitimate pitches they have. Maybe if you only have two good pitches, you're constantly going to be at risk for a meltdown the third time through the order.

At this stage I think it's fair to say Sale's the best pitcher the Sox have had in the Reinsdorf era, and it's not particularly close.

 

At this stage, I think it's fair to say Chris Sale will probably be the best pitcher the White Sox ever have.

If Q/smardj join Rodon, I'll be excited to see what this team looks like as it should have. You think in your head it would be difficult to ever beat sox a majority of the time when facing those 4 in a row. The reality has been a pretty pisspoor season from 2/4.

If Q/smardj join Rodon, I'll be excited to see what this team looks like as it should have. You think in your head it would be difficult to ever beat sox a majority of the time when facing those 4 in a row. The reality has been a pretty pisspoor season from 2/4.

 

1 of 4

Yeah Q has been better.

Yeah Q has been better.

Quintana does have a 3.25 FIP, he's been hurt a bit by a high BABIP, though a lot of that is probably our piss-poor defense too.

Three pitches, I think, is the ultimate requirement for consistently being able to pitch well deep into the game, because it gives you a weapon for the third time through the lineup. The other night we saw him go fastball/slider almost exclusively the first time through, start adding the change in tough spots the second time through (and honestly it didn't look real good at first), and then start to lean on the change as a wipeout the third time through (and it looked fantastic).

 

I'm starting to wonder if there's a correlation between those "one bad inning" guys (like Edwin Jackson, John Danks, etc.) and the number of legitimate pitches they have. Maybe if you only have two good pitches, you're constantly going to be at risk for a meltdown the third time through the order.

Alright, that's it. I want Eminor3rd sitting next to Stone doing broadcasts. Hawk is now retired.

 

I like your thinking here and the only thing I can add is that Sale shows you do not need a deep repertoire of pitches to be elite.

 

Just imagine this rotation if Rodon (same pitch selection as Sale) follows in Sale's footsteps with the change up and overall command of his pitches. That would make two elite #1's at the top of the rotation with Q pitching #3 who is more of a #2. And hopefully in due time, Fulmer will be in that mix setting this rotation up for some really good years to come.

 

Sale is well on his way to being a mentor and that you cannot put a price on.

 

 

 

 

 

Chris Sale being a god right now is the reason we can't blow it up. Wasting his prime would be a crime against baseball.

 

The front office has been committing crimes against baseball for years now while refusing to blow it up, yet can't put a playoff team together. Unfortunately, they gave Jerry a WS game ball so they have a lifetime pass.

The front office has been committing crimes against baseball for years now while refusing to blow it up, yet can't put a playoff team together. Unfortunately, they gave Jerry a WS game ball so they have a lifetime pass.

 

They blew it up in 2013 and just let the team suck in general in 2014.

 

This year looked great on paper, but the crime is poor coaching right now.

The front office has been committing crimes against baseball for years now while refusing to blow it up, yet can't put a playoff team together. Unfortunately, they gave Jerry a WS game ball so they have a lifetime pass.

Probably with blowing it up is the only players who would bring back any value are the ones you build around while rebuilding. Plus do you really trust our minor league staff to be able to properly handle a rebuild with young talent?

They blew it up in 2013 and just let the team suck in general in 2014.

 

This year looked great on paper, but the crime is poor coaching right now.

 

overall, you got a good point, but ref to poor coaching, i buy that, but is that the reason the pitching is not doing as well as expected??

Alright, that's it. I want Eminor3rd sitting next to Stone doing broadcasts. Hawk is now retired.

 

I like your thinking here and the only thing I can add is that Sale shows you do not need a deep repertoire of pitches to be elite.

 

Just imagine this rotation if Rodon (same pitch selection as Sale) follows in Sale's footsteps with the change up and overall command of his pitches. That would make two elite #1's at the top of the rotation with Q pitching #3 who is more of a #2. And hopefully in due time, Fulmer will be in that mix setting this rotation up for some really good years to come.

 

Sale is well on his way to being a mentor and that you cannot put a price on.

 

Definitely, especially with how much Sale has INSISTED on getting ahead in the count. I think that;s the absolute key for Rodon's success.

 

To me, Rodon's is just a completely different pitch than Sale's, because Rodon's comes in on the same plane as his fastball before breaking really late. Rodon's slider is a "foo you" pitch, whereas Sale's is a "just go ahead and try to make contact with this because you know it's going to be bending through the zone at some point" pitch. So for Rodon, it's essential that the batter has to be protecting the plate on the slider, because they ALL know it's there, but they've got to guess anyway because they can't afford for it to be a fastball because of the count.

 

I'm not sure of the numbers (if these are available anywhere), but it really seems like a lot of Rodon's walk come in the 4-straight-balls category or close, because when he gets behind, hitters just let that slider go since it NEVER lands in the zone and they have strikes to give up in case it's actually a fastball.

They blew it up in 2013 and just let the team suck in general in 2014.

 

This year looked great on paper, but the crime is poor coaching right now.

No it didn't

Definitely, especially with how much Sale has INSISTED on getting ahead in the count. I think that;s the absolute key for Rodon's success.

 

To me, Rodon's is just a completely different pitch than Sale's, because Rodon's comes in on the same plane as his fastball before breaking really late. Rodon's slider is a "foo you" pitch, whereas Sale's is a "just go ahead and try to make contact with this because you know it's going to be bending through the zone at some point" pitch. So for Rodon, it's essential that the batter has to be protecting the plate on the slider, because they ALL know it's there, but they've got to guess anyway because they can't afford for it to be a fastball because of the count.

 

I'm not sure of the numbers (if these are available anywhere), but it really seems like a lot of Rodon's walk come in the 4-straight-balls category or close, because when he gets behind, hitters just let that slider go since it NEVER lands in the zone and they have strikes to give up in case it's actually a fastball.

Again, I could not agree more. Very good analysis.

 

Sale's slider really is something. To me, when Sale throws that slider he's telling the hitter " here it is, good luck, ha ha!". Man, that slider really is something!

 

You are absolutely spot on with Rodon. Hitters wave at the slider much more when he lands the fastball for a strike ahead of it. Once Rodon establishes better fastball command, his Slider and developing change will be more effective. If Rodon can establish better command with his fastball and change, he could predominantly use the slider for strikeouts and help save that elbow.

 

Look at Q. There's nothing fancy about his repertoire, he just pounds the zone with good location of the small selection of pitches he commands.

 

Back to Sale. The difference between now and the few starts he was roughed up in is command. When he got roughed up he looked more like an effectively wild pitcher in comparison to what we are witnessing now. Sale is just in a league of his own right now.

 

 

No it didn't

"Great" might be pushing it and I know the projections didn't really like us, but even then a bunch of guys are hitting below their projections, some well under like Melky. Even if you were pessimistic you shouldn't have expected this kind of offensive ineptitude.

Rodon doesn't have Sale's height or ridiculous arm angle and that's a big advantage for Chris as I think it adds a tick or two to the listed speed on his fastball in the hitters' eyes. Chris also has learned to vary his fastball speeds and has (most starts) pinpoint command of it. Chris can pitch off his fastball and I'm not quite sure Rodon can, because he doesn't really know where it's going all the time and it tends to hang over the zone.

 

One thing Rodon does have over Sale is the ability to change the tilt on his slider. What Eminor said was accurate that Chris' almost always breaks wildly and over the zone (which is great, good luck hitting it even if you know it's coming) but Rodon can vary the speed and tilt to RHB and in theory should be able to get by with only 2 pitches more often than not if he has good command that night.

 

That said, developing a changeup, as with all pitchers, will be critical for Rodon's long term success. He'll be good with a decent one, he'll be great to excellent with a good one.

Edited June 10, 201510 yr by chitownsportsfan

They blew it up in 2013 and just let the team suck in general in 2014.

 

This year looked great on paper, but the crime is poor coaching right now.

 

That runs deep in the organization.

overall, you got a good point, but ref to poor coaching, i buy that, but is that the reason the pitching is not doing as well as expected??

 

I think the poor defensive fundamentals has played a large part in that.

I think the poor defensive fundamentals has played a large part in that.

 

I'd agree with this. We have seen a lot of unearned, earned runs this year.