Caulfield's Dayton Moore is copying 2003-05 KW thread

[caulfield12]

Because the mods asked for it, haha.

 

As expected, this post will be long...so no point in reading and/or complaining afterwards.

 

 

 

1) Spread out your pool of money over a group of free agents and trade targets, but concentrate as much as possible on "value"/players coming off injuries or with bad reps. More often that means tier 3 guys, instead of overpaying for Tier 2. When you DO go after a Tier 2 (Edinson Volquez or Shark), get it right.

 

The White Sox turned Ordonez, Lee and Valentin's money into Hermanson, Vizcaino, Iguchi, Dye, Pods, AJ, Hernandez and Dye. The worst of those deals was for El Duque, and they ended up getting those three miraculous outs against BOS with the bases loaded to redeem that move.

 

The Royals did essentially the same thing (and similar to the Red Sox model for winning the World Series more recently). They were able to bring in Chris Young, Medlen (more for this season as a starter), Volquez, Blanton, Rios, Madson and, most importantly, Kendrys Morales, for less than the White Sox spent on all their acquisitions.

 

2) When you make big moves to go for it, utilize the depth of your minor league system to acquire those players (Freddy Garcia in 2004 or Zobrist/Cueto). The Royals didn't pay any of the salary for both of those guys, but they sacrificed a lot of their minor league depth to do so (a big criticism of the KW/JR regime).

 

3) Stay away from long-term contracts (anything more than 3 years) or overspending...even on your own players (see Alex Gordon or Pujols/StL).

 

4) Related to #1, unearth even more "under the radar types" who can contribute (low risk/medium reward), nobody noticed the Royals signing the likes of Young, Medlen or Blanton last year, or the addition of Dillon Gee and John Lannan already this offseason for rotation depth/insurance. Likewise, the White Sox made tons of moves like that from 2003-05 that went virtually unnoticed nationally (Cliff Politte, Esteban Loaiza or Geoff Blum).

 

 

Essentially, right now is where the paths depart and where KW went wrong after 2005, changing the team composition too dramatically.

 

Here is what the Royals will do, IMO.

 

1) They essentially have a five year window of "good will" from the community that has been earned through two consecutive World Series appearances. That will generate additional revenue streams, but the major problem is that their media rights deal isn't up for renewal until 2019. That essentially means that they're getting paid $20 million for a product arguably worth $50-70 million and one that would probably fetch in the vicinity of $110-130 million on the open bidding market.

 

2) Because of that fact, they simply can't afford to sign any players with contracts beyond 2018, with 2016-17 being the ideal window (and that's where someone like a CarGo makes sense, if the numbers work). Gordon will get four if not five years, so it makes no sense to pay for a player on his decline for 2-3 seasons when you've already lost the core of your foundation (Cain/Moustakas/Hosmer after 2017).

 

3) On the other hand, they have the luxury of biding their time and sitting back and waiting for their division rivals to set the target or benchmark. They're waiting to see if the White Sox or Tigers end up with one of Davis, Upton, Gordon or Cespedes, whether the Indians upgrade their offense further with a trade of a young starter and what the heck the Twins are up to. With all the accrued "good will," they're not forced into making a desperate financial move...so they can wait, and wait, and wait some more.

 

4) The hope/underlying belief is that a slew of interesting players will become available once all the big guns have been fired off...allowing them to swoop in and sign the likes of Span, Parra or Austin Jackson for bargain or value prices. Trading second-tier prospects for Desmond Jennings is another option. Because of the depth in the FA starting pitching class, they can also possibly sign a 2nd/3rd tier pitching option to fill out the rotation and provide depth (same issue the White Sox have at the moment).

 

5) Which would allow them to push Duffy into the bullpen and/or make him trade material if they can market him, Herrera or Hochevar to a team desperate to overpay for bullpen help (see HOU/Boston this off-season) and ironically enough hoping to copy the KC "bullpen dominance" blueprint.

 

This is where we get back to the old KW way of doing things. Everything that comes after patience.

 

6) The idea that someone like an Ian Desmond or Dexter Fowler will fall into their grasp because they go unsigned into the regular season (like Morales/S.Drew two years ago).

 

Desmond could used at their three weakest offensive positions, 2B, LF or RF (many believe he will be converted to a Zobrist-like superutility role because of his athletic ability).

 

Players like Desmond or Fowler are more likely to want to sign "rebuild value" one year contracts or perhaps one year with an option contracts, which fits perfectly into the KC time frame.

 

7) The tried and true KW plan, reload at the trade deadline, adjust on the fly...with their additional revenue flows and guaranteed attendance the next two seasons, they have a lot more flexibility than other teams in the division to either add talent by trading minor league prospects or taking on salary (like the White Sox did in 2012 with Youkilis, Myers and Liriano).

 

The Royals have the luxury of being able to sit back and bide their time, not unlike the way DET went about things in 2012...waiting to run down the front-runners in the 2nd half of the season. Teams like DET, the White Sox and Indians will be much more desperate to get off to quick starts IMO.

Edited December 24, 2015 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

Because the mods asked for it, haha.

 

As expected, this post will be long...so no point in reading and/or complaining afterwards.

 

 

 

1) Spread out your pool of money over a group of free agents and trade targets, but concentrate as much as possible on "value"/players coming off injuries or with bad reps. More often that means tier 3 guys, instead of overpaying for Tier 2. When you DO go after a Tier 2 (Edinson Volquez or Shark), get it right.

 

The White Sox turned Ordonez, Lee and Valentin's money into Hermanson, Vizcaino, Iguchi, Dye, Pods, AJ, Hernandez and Dye. The worst of those deals was for El Duque, and they ended up getting those three miraculous outs against BOS with the bases loaded to redeem that move.

 

The Royals did essentially the same thing (and similar to the Red Sox model for winning the World Series more recently). They were able to bring in Chris Young, Medlen (more for this season as a starter), Volquez, Blanton, Rios, Madson and, most importantly, Kendrys Morales, for less than the White Sox spent on all their acquisitions.

 

2) When you make big moves to go for it, utilize the depth of your minor league system to acquire those players (Freddy Garcia in 2004 or Zobrist/Cueto). The Royals didn't pay any of the salary for both of those guys, but they sacrificed a lot of their minor league depth to do so (a big criticism of the KW/JR regime).

 

3) Stay away from long-term contracts (anything more than 3 years) or overspending...even on your own players (see Alex Gordon or Pujols/StL).

 

4) Related to #1, unearth even more "under the radar types" who can contribute (low risk/medium reward), nobody noticed the Royals signing the likes of Young, Medlen or Blanton last year, or the addition of Dillon Gee and John Lannan already this offseason for rotation depth/insurance. Likewise, the White Sox made tons of moves like that from 2003-05 that went virtually unnoticed nationally (Cliff Politte, Esteban Loaiza or Geoff Blum).

 

 

Essentially, right now is where the paths depart and where KW went wrong after 2005, changing the team composition too dramatically.

 

Here is what the Royals will do, IMO.

 

1) They essentially have a five year window of "good will" from the community that has been earned through two consecutive World Series appearances. That will generate additional revenue streams, but the major problem is that their media rights deal isn't up for renewal until 2019. That essentially means that they're getting paid $20 million for a product arguably worth $50-70 million and one that would probably fetch in the vicinity of $110-130 million on the open bidding market.

 

2) Because of that fact, they simply can't afford to sign any players with contracts beyond 2018, with 2016-17 being the ideal window (and that's where someone like a CarGo makes sense, if the numbers work). Gordon will get four if not five years, so it makes no sense to pay for a player on his decline for 2-3 seasons when you've already lost the core of your foundation (Cain/Moustakas/Hosmer after 2017).

 

3) On the other hand, they have the luxury of biding their time and sitting back and waiting for their division rivals to set the target or benchmark. They're waiting to see if the White Sox or Tigers end up with one of Davis, Upton, Gordon or Cespedes, whether the Indians upgrade their offense further with a trade of a young starter and what the heck the Twins are up to. With all the accrued "good will," they're not forced into making a desperate financial move...so they can wait, and wait, and wait some more.

 

4) The hope/underlying belief is that a slew of interesting players will become available once all the big guns have been fired off...allowing them to swoop in and sign the likes of Span, Parra or Austin Jackson for bargain or value prices. Trading second-tier prospects for Desmond Jennings is another option. Because of the depth in the FA starting pitching class, they can also possibly sign a 2nd/3rd tier pitching option to fill out the rotation and provide depth (same issue the White Sox have at the moment).

 

5) Which would allow them to push Duffy into the bullpen and/or make him trade material if they can market him, Herrera or Hochevar to a team desperate to overpay for bullpen help (see HOU/Boston this off-season) and ironically enough hoping to copy the KC "bullpen dominance" blueprint.

 

This is where we get back to the old KW way of doing things. Everything that comes after patience.

 

6) The idea that someone like an Ian Desmond or Dexter Fowler will fall into their grasp because they go unsigned into the regular season (like Morales/S.Drew two years ago).

 

Desmond could used at their three weakest offensive positions, 2B, LF or RF (many believe he will be converted to a Zobrist-like superutility role because of his athletic ability).

 

Players like Desmond or Fowler are more likely to want to sign "rebuild value" one year contracts or perhaps one year with an option contracts, which fits perfectly into the KC time frame.

 

7) The tried and true KW plan, reload at the trade deadline, adjust on the fly...with their additional revenue flows and guaranteed attendance the next two seasons, they have a lot more flexibility than other teams in the division to either add talent by trading minor league prospects or taking on salary (like the White Sox did in 2012 with Youkilis, Myers and Liriano).

 

The Royals have the luxury of being able to sit back and bide their time, not unlike the way DET went about things in 2012...waiting to run down the front-runners in the 2nd half of the season. Teams like DET, the White Sox and Indians will be much more desperate to get off to quick starts IMO.

 

Bump. LMAO

 

[caulfield12]

I said all along to sign Parra, Jackson or Span if the price on Cespedes or Upton was too high.

 

It's what KC should have done until they managed a deal that pays Alex Gordon $28 million the next two years, the same the White Sox will pay Fowler, plus losing the draft pick.

 

So they've turned Semien, Bassit, Phegley, Ravelo, AND a lost compensation pick worth $10-12 million in short and long-term impact into a below average CF who strikes out too much and who will essentially be earning the same as a four time Gold Glover who projects to have a higher OBP. In the meantime, the lack of depth in the farm system rules out 75% of the possible remaining trades on the board.

 

Brilliant.

Edited January 15, 2016 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

I said all along to sign Parra, Jackson or Span if the price on Cespedes or Upton was too high.

 

It's what KC should have done until they managed a deal that pays Alex Gordon $28 million the next two years, the same the White Sox will pay Fowler, plus losing the draft pick.

 

So they've turned Semien, Bassit, Phegley, Ravelo, AND a lost compensation pick worth $10-12 million in short and long-term impact into a below average CF who strikes out too much and who will essentially be earning the same as a four time Gold Glover who projects to have a higher OBP. In the meantime, the lack of depth in the farm system rules out 75% of the possible remaining trades on the board.

 

Brilliant.

Read #3. As far as I can tell they will be paying Gordon $20 million in year 3, and probably $24 million in year 4 with the buyout.and amazing how Fowler would be a smart play for one team, but a guy who wouldn't be able to adjust to the AL with another.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Dick Allen

[caulfield12]

Read #3. As far as I can tell they will be paying Gordon $20 million in year 3, and probably $24 million in year 4 with the buyout.and amazing how Fowler would be a smart play for one team, but a guy who wouldn't be able to adjust to the AL with another.

 

Ummm...if buyouts are pushed one year ahead for accounting purposes, sure.

 

Actually, the last two years of Gordon are more about investing against their upcoming media rights deal. He will likely be the main remaining face of the franchise then.

 

 

And I never said sign Fowler before the draft pick expiration...I said I would wait and see if Fowler and Desmond were still on the board as the season started.

 

See #6 for further reference.

Edited January 15, 2016 by caulfield12

[Dick Allen]

Ummm...if buyouts are pushed one year ahead for accounting purposes, sure.

 

Actually, the last two years of Gordon are more about investing against their upcoming media rights deal. He will likely be the main remaining face of the franchise then.

 

 

And I never said sign Fowler before the draft pick expiration...I said I would wait and see if Fowler and Desmond were still on the board as the season started.

You specifically mentioned not giving Gordon 4 years and the last 2 are more expensive, so it isn't dumb as long as you save some money the first 2 years and pay them the second?

 

How is it smart to pay a guy to join you during the season if he is someone that will have trouble adjusting to the AL?

 

 

[caulfield12]

Yes, because you have that "hometown" discount (see Buehrle, Konerko, Sale, Q) and flexibility with the structuring of the contract...you can then afford to go out and sign another starting pitcher to solidify your team for the two most critical seasons when you need to compete.

 

Desmond and Fowler would make more sense signing late if you had them for team control for at least 2 seasons, if not 3.

 

The reason for that is well-documented...what happened to Morales and Drew.

 

Plus, that gives Desmond time to adjust to playing outfield in 2017 if that's the biggest need of the Sox...IF IF IF Saladino can actually hold down the position for an entire season, which is a big IF.

 

 

 

As I stated many times, the Royals are likely to lose Cain, Hosmer, Moustakas, Escobar, Volquez and Wade Davis after 2017...the odds of keeping more than 1-2 are infinitesimal.

 

At that time, at least still they'll have Gordon, Ventura and Sal Perez as "hometown" heroes for bumping up their next media rights deal from $20 to $100-120 million per season. $40 million for Alex Gordon (+ $4 million buyout) over those two seasons won't be the end of the world. He's worth more to the Royals than any other team for marketing purposes.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Yes, because you have that "hometown" discount (see Buehrle, Konerko, Sale, Q) and flexibility with the structuring of the contract...you can then afford to go out and sign another starting pitcher to solidify your team for the two most critical seasons when you need to compete.

 

Desmond and Fowler would make more sense signing late if you had them for team control for at least 2 seasons, if not 3.

 

The reason for that is well-documented...what happened to Morales and Drew.

 

Plus, that gives Desmond time to adjust to playing outfield in 2017 if that's the biggest need of the Sox...IF IF IF Saladino can actually hold down the position for an entire season, which is a big IF.

 

 

 

As I stated many times, the Royals are likely to lose Cain, Hosmer, Moustakas, Escobar, Volquez and Wade Davis after 2017...the odds of keeping more than 1-2 are infinitesimal.

 

At that time, at least still they'll have Gordon, Ventura and Sal Perez as "hometown" heroes for bumping up their next media rights deal from $20 to $100-120 million per season. $40 million for Alex Gordon (+ $4 million buyout) over those two seasons won't be the end of the world. He's worth more to the Royals than any other team for marketing purposes.

Yeah because a network is going to pay double on a 10 to 20 to 30 year contract based on a player who is aging and has 1 year left to play.

[caulfield12]

The Royals contract the last two years has been valued at $50-70 million but they've only received $20 million each year because they have the lowest media rights deal in all of MLB (and yet can still afford 4 years and $72 million for Gordon, when the White Sox media packages give them at least $65-70 million just for regional rights.

 

(Both teams also had an increase of $25 million last year or the year before for national, such as FOX/ESPN/TBS/TNT, etc.)

 

I think it's reasonable to assume they believe that having a much more marketable product in 2018 and 2019 would push the projected valued of the deal (assuming for inflation) into the $80-120 million range per year.

 

So you're talking the media rights quadrupling (at a minimum) and going up by a factor of six on the maximum upside.

 

Splitting the difference at $100 million (which is a lot less than the White Sox would/should receive, by the way), that $44 million (including buyout) for Gordon in 2018 and 2019 isn't much at all.

Edited January 15, 2016 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Everyone is really excited to hear your plan, Dick.

 

Signing Jackson and Cespedes and Gordon...what else do you have up your sleeve?

 

Well, cross one off your list.

 

So what now? Austin Jackson? Cespedes? For how much and how many years?

You're content with Saladino and Erik Johnson?

 

We know the plan probably involves a contract extension for Ventura, John Danks and the firing of Don Cooper. The Gordon Beckham ship has sailed twice, so that option's out, thankfully. Your persistence in defending all of them is admirable, albeit shortsighted.

Edited January 15, 2016 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/the-whit...e-some-options/

 

Rick Hahn prepared to make a big move today!!!

 

 

Oh my god, he didn't make a big move...last week he didn't either, when the lead was 6/7/8 over the Indians/Royals/Tigers.

 

ERGO, nothing can ever change.

 

We might elect a president whose positions change every day to the point where, according to research/tracking, 82% of his statements have turned out to be categorized as "lies" or, at best, "half truths."

 

 

The situation in January (the time of my original post) for free agents also isn't QUITE the same as the end of March.

 

The price for Ian Desmond at that time was expected to be $15 million per season, around the same as the qualifying pick.

 

Ian Desmond eventually signed for $8 million, which was about half that. Not to mention the White Sox could, from an accounting standpoint, look at it as a "savings" of roughly $2 million or so on draft spending if you wanted to spin it in that way, so the real cost to this year's overall organizational budget would have been $6 million.

 

IMO, there's a huge difference between $15-16 million for one year of Ian Desmond AND losing a compensation pick (which would then be regained in all likelihood)...versus just $8 million for one year. At that price, the reward outweighs the risk.

 

 

 

 

 

PLEASE NOTE: DICK ALLEN BUMPED THIS THREAD, I RESPONDED TO HIM AND HIS POST DISAPPEARED.

 

I WOULD ADVISE THE MODS TO JUST BURY IT AGAIN, BECAUSE THE LAST THING I WANT TO DO IS HAVE TO HEAR HOW I'M NOT A WHITE SOX FAN OVER AND OVER AGAIN...NOT A SURPRISE, SEEING WHO OUR NEXT OPPONENT IS ON THE SCHEDULE.

Edited May 19, 2016 by caulfield12

[Kyyle23]

I WOULD ADVISE THE MODS TO JUST BURY IT AGAIN, BECAUSE THE LAST THING I WANT TO DO IS HAVE TO HEAR HOW I'M NOT A WHITE SOX FAN OVER AND OVER AGAIN...NOT A SURPRISE, SEEING WHO OUR NEXT OPPONENT IS ON THE SCHEDULE.

 

Seriously, we dont care Caulfield. And we dont bury threads either.

[caulfield12]

Fine, let's talk about how the White Sox emulated the Royals' plan and how they didn't at this point (since Dick Allen wanted me to talk about them by bringing up this thread from where it was buried):

 

1) Major improvement defensively at 3B and CF, which led to the biggest improvement (perhaps by accident) with Eaton in RF.

 

2) Better leadership at the catching position, although both Avila and Navarro are disposable and not part of the long-term plan.

 

3) At least until a week or so ago, they had an offensive approach of "keep the line" moving...especially from the 7th inning on. As we've seen with Lawrie and Rollins recently, we have a lot of issues with making contact (although better at taking walks by far).

 

4) Signing "cheap" free agent pitchers like Latos, Gonzalez and Jacob Turner...the Royals did the same with Chris Young, Blanton, Dillon Gee, Chien-Min Wang, Mike Minor and Ryan Madson. (One obvious weakness right now is the set-up area for the White Sox, the Yankees are the ones who most copied KC with their three-headed monster...KC has been relying on Hochevar, Herrera and Davis again, with Soria the biggest disappointment and Madson turning into YET another closer Beane will flip for prospects).

 

5) Still trying the "sacrifice bunting" approach to scoring runs...just not very effectively. Work in progress.

 

 

The best move the Royals made in the off-season was the worst-received and most ridiculed, Ian Kennedy. Alex Gordon, Joakim Soria and Chris Young have been pretty big disappointments so far. They're also stuck with one of the worst contracts in baseball in Omar Infante for the next two years...and just had to send Christian Colon down because it's a numbers game with Moustakas coming back and Cuthbert also on the roster. So they have the unforgettable Whit Merrifield, aka the poor man's Ben Zobrist (can play OF and 2B) up as well. The farm's a mess with Starling struggling, Mondesi suspended and Zimmer still struggling with his health.

 

So, like the White Sox, their deadline moves will be more about adding to payroll than giving up talent (most of it was expended trading for Cueto and Zobrist last year).

Edited May 19, 2016 by caulfield12

[southsider2k5]

So now this has not only devolved to stalker trolling, but deleting the posts after the fact? Come on guys.

[Quin]

A+ trolling DA. Bumping a thread and covering the tracks.