Wow, I hadn't compared their numbers before, but Danks last three years aren't that far off of what Happ has typically done. Maybe Danks isn't as overpaid as we all thought.

Plus, factor in the cost of pitching went up this winter so as long as Danks continues to pitch the way he has or better he's definitely worth closer to his '16 salary.

If you look more closely, out of the last 4 seasons, he's had an xFIP between 3.9 and 4.0 in 2 of those years, 2013 he was substantially higher, 2015 was 3.65 - so even with some minor league stints, you can make a decent case that you have a guy who can put up an xFIP near 4, that includes time in Torotno.

 

Danks, OTOH, since his injury, 4.08, 4.62, 4.65. He's got to perform a lot better next year in order to convince anyone that he can put up anything like the outings Happ has done.

 

The one thing Happ hasn't done that Danks has doen in that stretch is get up to 190 innings. So maybe you expect Danks to give a few more starts than Happ if you're signing him, but you can't convince me he's either flipping an on switch or getting better based on his numbers.

 

As of right now, Danks is a couple steps below Happ no matter which year you look at.

 

Unless you look at consistency as being important at the end of your rotation.

Unless you look at consistency as being important at the end of your rotation.

So John Danks is a consistent 4.6 xFIP and Happ is consistently better.

 

Like seriously, I ahve no idea what that statement could mean. Danks is actually getting gradually worse if you look at those numbers, he's just getting back to more innings.

So John Danks is a consistent 4.6 xFIP and Happ is consistently better.

 

Like seriously, I ahve no idea what that statement could mean. Danks is actually getting gradually worse if you look at those numbers, he's just getting back to more innings.

 

Danks FIP has gone down each year since returning from injury, and since returning from injury he has been in a major league rotation to take the ball every five days.

 

Even after the surgery, Danks has pitched more innings than Happ in each of the last three seasons. Overall we are talking about 87 innings more, or about 5 starts per year more.

Danks FIP has gone down each year since returning from injury, and since returning from injury he has been in a major league rotation to take the ball every five days.

 

Even after the surgery, Danks has pitched more innings than Happ in each of the last three seasons. Overall we are talking about 87 innings more, or about 5 starts per year more.

ANd Danks's xFIP has gone up every year since his injury.

 

Also worth noting - JA Happ only pitched 92 innings in 2013, because he got hit in the head by a line drive and suffered a skull fracture. So unless "avoiding head impacts" is a skill you'd like to explain why Danks has that Happ does not, I think we can call a portion of that innings difference "bad luck".

Regardless of the true size of the gap between Happ and Danks from 2013-2015, I'll be happy when Danks' contract is no longer on the books. I say he signs a 3yr/$25-27M deal after this season with somebody.

ANd Danks's xFIP has gone up every year since his injury.

 

Also worth noting - JA Happ only pitched 92 innings in 2013, because he got hit in the head by a line drive and suffered a skull fracture. So unless "avoiding head impacts" is a skill you'd like to explain why Danks has that Happ does not, I think we can call a portion of that innings difference "bad luck".

Other factors to look at are that Danks has been increasing his innings each each since the injury so building strength and fatigue at the throughout the season is a factor in Danks' favor.

 

My favroite stat for pitchers is SIERA. I think it is the best way to isolate the pitcher's performance. Not perfect but makes the most logical sense in the manner in which it's calculated.

 

The average for the last 3 years for Happ: 4.21, for Danks: 4.48. I don't know if they've done an analysis for significant difference but it doesn't seem that it's that significant of a difference.

Look at Happ's 2015 season. THAT is why he got a three year deal. The Danksian previous seasons are why it was only 3/36.

 

Like I said, if Danks pulls out a 3.50-ish ERA this year, he'll sign a decent little contract, too. But he hasn't done anything remotely close to that since his injury. Happ has, exactly once, but he did it and it was this past season. That's the difference.

Look at Happ's 2015 season. THAT is why he got a three year deal. The Danksian previous seasons are why it was only 3/36.

 

Like I said, if Danks pulls out a 3.50-ish ERA this year, he'll sign a decent little contract, too. But he hasn't done anything remotely close to that since his injury. Happ has, exactly once, but he did it and it was this past season. That's the difference.

In his 20 AL starts, he pretty much was about as bad as John Danks in 2015.

In his 20 AL starts, he pretty much was about as bad as John Danks in 2015.

 

I'm not saying I would have given Happ the deal, personally, but the alternative explanation (that the Jays eagerly paid 3/36 because that's what they think 180 innings of 4.60 ERA is worth) is one that I don't buy for a minute. Teams gave three year deals for mid-4 ERAs in the steroid era sometimes, but not in today's environment.

Look at Happ's 2015 season. THAT is why he got a three year deal. The Danksian previous seasons are why it was only 3/36.

 

Like I said, if Danks pulls out a 3.50-ish ERA this year, he'll sign a decent little contract, too. But he hasn't done anything remotely close to that since his injury. Happ has, exactly once, but he did it and it was this past season. That's the difference.

 

And the big part of that is the very flukish looking Pittsburgh time. This year he is going back to Toronto.

I'm not saying I would have given Happ the deal, personally, but the alternative explanation (that the Jays eagerly paid 3/36 because that's what they think 180 innings of 4.60 ERA is worth) is one that I don't buy for a minute. Teams gave three year deals for mid-4 ERAs in the steroid era sometimes, but not in today's environment.

 

Their budget made them spend decent money for a lemon. I do agree, unless Danks throws up a decent ERA this year, he isn't getting a Happ like deal next year, but I still think Toronto paid more than a little too much hoping that Happ suddenly became good.

Not Cespedes, not Gordon... Not Cespedes, not Gordon. Not Gordon, not Cespedes.

And the big part of that is the very flukish looking Pittsburgh time. This year he is going back to Toronto.

 

Again, I'm not saying Happ is legit or that it was a good deal. I'm just saying it makes more sense that the Jays think something changed in Pittsburgh, not that his career average was worth 3/36.

Danks needs to go the NL and play in a pitcher park. He's been homer prone lately. Needs to pitch in a big park