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What we really need to trade for


Jake
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Due to a mixture of injuries and inadequate talent, the most immediate and most realistically fixed problem with the current team is the worse half of the MLB bullpen. Importantly, I see no reason to believe this can be fixed up internally.

 

Let's start by identifying the definite major leaguers who belong on the team:

  • Robertson (3.22 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 5.0 BB/9)
  • Jones (2.54 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 1.6 BB/9)
  • Duke (2.73 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9)
  • Jennings (1.67 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 4.5 BB/9)
  • Albers (5.17 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9)

 

Then we have the guys who are arguably not MLB players but are in the MLB bullpen:

  • Beck (MLB: 8.10 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 9.5 BB/9) (AAA: 4.47 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9)
  • Ynoa (MLB:4.32 ERA, 11.8 K/9, 5.4 BB/9) (AA/AAA: 3.90 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3.9 BB/9)

 

And their potential replacements, who IMO still fit the bill as non-MLB players:

  • Tommy Kahnle (MLB: 6.23 ERA, 4.2 K/9, 10.4 BB/9) (AAA: 3.00 ERA, 12.0 K/9, 4.0 BB/9)
  • Matt Purke (MLB: 5.50 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 6.0 BB/9) (AAA: 4.34 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 5.8 BB/9)
  • Scott Carroll (MLB: 11.57 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.9 BB/9) (AAA: 5.27 ERA, 4.5 K/9, 3.7 BB/9)

 

And I'll list some plausible callups who haven't been used yet:

  • Brad Goldberg (AAA: 2.37 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 4.5 BB/9)
  • Blake Smith (AAA: 5.01 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 3.7 BB/9)

 

AAA is virtually devoid of players who have a good walk rate, good strikeout:walk rate, and ERA. Blake Smith, who is apparently a converted position player, is as close as it gets but has a poor ERA (5 home runs allowed). Goldberg has had a consistently high walk rate in the minor leagues.

 

Kahnle has a high walk rate in AAA and has had obscenely high walk rates in the majors and minors previously. Purke has had a consistent problem with extremely high walks. Carroll's walk rate is okay, but he's never been able to strike people out and gets hit hard consistently.

 

And it's worth just listing the root of the problem, injuries:

  • Petricka (60-day, likely out for season)
  • Putnam (15-day, taking long shot at avoiding season-ending surgery)
  • Webb (60-day, out for season)

 

All we're left with are the shots in the dark of Carson Fulmer and Zack Burdi. Fulmer has >5 BB/9 but that has gone down to 3.73 BB/9 since the beginning of June and an 11.8 K/9 in that same period (9.3 total). There's a chance he could get the job done, but he is so wild in and outside the zone I seriously worry that he'd have to go through another painful break-in period in MLB.

 

As far as Burdi goes, he's allowing an 1.100 OPS against and neither the walks or Ks look especially good yet. He might just put it all together in a snap, but waiting on it for this season is a fool's errand.

 

At this point, if you could just clone Albers and Jennings you'd probably get 1-2 extra wins down the stretch. Ynoa shows some signs of being serviceable, so maybe he can stick around. Beck's stuff has been impressive, but he has no idea where it's going. Purke and Kahnle have looked absolutely clueless. I don't see any great reasons to make room on the 40-man for Goldberg or Smith. Please, KW/Hahn braintrust, get us a mediocre reliever so we don't have to run some of these guys out there.

 

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Assuming Albers will be "okay" from here on out, it's probably easier to assume that Ynoa will produce the same...

 

The issue then, isn't Ynoa, as much as the fact that Ventura has almost nobody he can trust with a tie game or 1-2 run deficit when it's the six or seventh inning from the RH side.

 

Theoretically, it's Jennings (who can produce in that spot, albeit isn't RHed despite some contrary splits), but Ventura still hasn't figured out how to use him the most effectively, YET.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 9, 2016 -> 10:10 AM)
Assuming Albers will be "okay" from here on out, it's probably easier to assume that Ynoa will produce the same...

 

The issue then, isn't Ynoa, as much as the fact that Ventura has almost nobody he can trust with a tie game or 1-2 run deficit when it's the six or seventh inning from the RH side.

 

Theoretically, it's Jennings (who can produce in that spot, albeit isn't RHed despite some contrary splits), but Ventura still hasn't figured out how to use him the most effectively, YET.

 

I'd take a good reliever or 2 over mediocre.Cloning Albers isn't very good right now. Robin doesn't trust him at all since he put Beck in over him yesterday.

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I would settle for anyone who could throw some strikes. Everyone of these borderline guys mentioned above have the same problem...throwing strikes.

 

Ynoa, Purke, Kahnle and Beck have all failed miserably getting ahead of hitters at the major league level.

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QUOTE (jeffro2525 @ Jul 10, 2016 -> 08:53 AM)
I would settle for anyone who could throw some strikes. Everyone of these borderline guys mentioned above have the same problem...throwing strikes.

 

Ynoa, Purke, Kahnle and Beck have all failed miserably getting ahead of hitters at the major league level.

I concur.

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QUOTE (jeffro2525 @ Jul 10, 2016 -> 09:53 AM)
I would settle for anyone who could throw some strikes. Everyone of these borderline guys mentioned above have the same problem...throwing strikes.

 

Ynoa, Purke, Kahnle and Beck have all failed miserably getting ahead of hitters at the major league level.

I was listening to Dennis Eckersley talking the other night about relievers. He said many non-closers nibble and rarely throw strikes on a consistent basis. He said the reason is most of the bullpen guys other than closers have a limited pitch selection. They are there because they may have 1 good pitch and the rest are very hittable. So the coaches have them trying to throw around the edges because when they hit the strike zone, they tend to get hit hard.

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They called Kahnle back up so now we have a bullpen featuring Beck, Ynoa and Kahnle...three guys who should be virtually unusable in close game situations...lets see Turner, Volstad or Ranaudo...we've already seen Kahnle suck. Why not give one of the other guys a go?

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Our bullpen was borderline when healthy... now with all these injuries we have zero depth.

 

If we keep winning... then we are going to have to find help.

 

It would also help if our starters would step up - especially our top guys who haven't pitched like that recently.

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We could get a mediocre reliever easily. Just offer Saladino or Sanchez and he's ours. Not to get people too excited, but the Brewers have a couple of guys in their 30s who could be ours.

 

Of course, that's the last thing a sensible organization would do....

Edited by GreenSox
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QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 10, 2016 -> 11:18 AM)
We could get a mediocre reliever easily. Just offer Saladino or Sanchez and he's ours. Not to get people too excited, but the Brewers have a couple of guys in their 30s who could be ours.

 

Of course, that's the last thing a sensible organization would do....

 

I am sure no team within a few games of a playoff spot will trade for veteran relief help. I mean that never happens...

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