HuskyCaucasian Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 6, 2008 -> 07:17 PM) Just did some simple county math. Obama's down about 45,000 votes right now. From what is left around Indy, he's got about 18,000 or so more votes coming in those areas if you assume that his margin stays the same and each precinct has similar turnout. Monroe County (IU) only has 9% in so far, projecting that is rough but it might give 5000 or more based on the current margin. Lafayette isn't in yet at all, and Lake/Laporte aren't in either. I'd guess that from the Hillary areas that haven't reported yet there's less than a 5000 vote margin left for her. That leaves about 27,000 votes he'd need to make up in Lake and Porter and Lafayette and Monroe. He can pull this off. If not, it might get down to 1 or 2 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KipWellsFan Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:38 PM) He can pull this off. If not, it might get down to 1 or 2 points. We're assuming Lake County is going to go for Obama in the first place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kapkomet Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:38 PM) He can pull this off. If not, it might get down to 1 or 2 points. It will depend on what areas of Indianapolis are not counted. There's some ultra white parts to rural (but populated densely) Marion County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 QUOTE (KipWellsFan @ May 6, 2008 -> 06:39 PM) We're assuming Lake County is going to go for Obama in the first place? Well, 26.5% of the county is African American. That's the starting point. Actually a higher %age than Marion County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 (edited) FYI: If my numbers are right, Obama just passed Clinton in popular vote (primaries AND caucuses) INCLUDING FL and MI. +61,063 Edited May 7, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 Just based on the math, assuming Lake county is similar to Marion county, that Obama winds up about 10,000 votes short. That's a lot closer than I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KipWellsFan Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:43 PM) FYI: If my numbers are right, Obama just passed Clinton in popular vote (primaries AND caucuses) INCLUDING FL and MI. +61,063 Yah, Obama might not win Indiana tonight, and I don't think he will, but there is nothing in these numbers that will change superdelegates minds. Big win for Obama tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted May 7, 2008 Author Share Posted May 7, 2008 Lake will go big to Obama, LaPorte will break for Clinton pretty well. Hillary and Bill were here (laporte co) twice in three days. Obama wasn't here at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 6, 2008 -> 07:44 PM) Just based on the math, assuming Lake county is similar to Marion county, that Obama winds up about 10,000 votes short. That's a lot closer than I expected. MSNBC says the Obama camp expects to come up 15,000 short. That's 1 or 2 points. That's STUNNING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 Gap down to 3.226% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigSqwert Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 QUOTE (He_Gawn @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:23 PM) I was going to vote today but then realized that as long as there is not another prohibition, I do not care who is in office. but I am disapointed Obama didnt win here You don't deserve to post in the Filibuster anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 Obama needs 55 pct of the outstanding likely votes to win Indiana, according to CNN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ May 6, 2008 -> 05:48 PM) Gap down to 3.226% More importantly...it's down to 32,000 votes with probably enough to bring it down to 25,000 remaining without Lake (Monroe is still hanging out at 23%, Marion still counting, Tippecanoe half counted). A solid showing in Lake drops it down even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fathom Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 7, 2008 -> 02:51 AM) More importantly...it's down to 32,000 votes with probably enough to bring it down to 25,000 remaining without Lake (Monroe is still hanging out at 23%, Marion still counting, Tippecanoe half counted). A solid showing in Lake drops it down even more. FWIW, I really appreciate what you and athomeboy bring to this part of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 6, 2008 -> 06:46 PM) Lake will go big to Obama, LaPorte will break for Clinton pretty well. Hillary and Bill were here (laporte co) twice in three days. Obama wasn't here at all. Just did the checking. In 04, LaPorte put 20,000 votes in for Kerry. 60-40 Clinton would put it at 12000-8000. So that would be an extra 4000 votes he'd have to make up. You know, that might well be the margin of victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 (edited) QUOTE (fathom @ May 6, 2008 -> 07:53 PM) FWIW, I really appreciate what you and athomeboy bring to this part of the board. Well, you are welcome You should see the spreadsheets I have. lol I always was a math geek at heart. Edited May 7, 2008 by Athomeboy_2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KipWellsFan Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:51 PM) More importantly...it's down to 32,000 votes with probably enough to bring it down to 25,000 remaining without Lake (Monroe is still hanging out at 23%, Marion still counting, Tippecanoe half counted). A solid showing in Lake drops it down even more. There's still some Clinton areas to come in too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 QUOTE (KipWellsFan @ May 6, 2008 -> 05:55 PM) There's still some Clinton areas to come in too. The only 2 worth noting are Wayne County and LaPorte County. Wayne County hasn't come in at all yet, and voted 10000 for Kerry in 04. LaPorte I already mentionned. So a big Hillary win in Wayne County means that between those 2 the margin is 6500 coming in favor of her, which I think probably cancels out everything other than Lake County that still has to be counted that would be PrObama. He'd need to win Lake by about 35000 votes then I think, give or take 5000, which means he'd have to win Lake by the same percent margin he won Indy, give or take again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 By the way, North Carolina is looking like it's hanging at around a 14% win for Obama now, maybe a little variation left if there's the usual urban/rural counting splits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:00 PM) The only 2 worth noting are Wayne County and LaPorte County. Wayne County hasn't come in at all yet, and voted 10000 for Kerry in 04. LaPorte I already mentionned. So a big Hillary win in Wayne County means that between those 2 the margin is 6500 coming in favor of her, which I think probably cancels out everything other than Lake County that still has to be counted that would be PrObama. He'd need to win Lake by about 35000 votes then I think, give or take 5000, which means he'd have to win Lake by the same margin he won Indy, give or take again. I bow to your superior research. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ May 6, 2008 -> 06:02 PM) I bow to your superior research. lol It's all about the Googles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KipWellsFan Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 (edited) QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 6, 2008 -> 08:00 PM) The only 2 worth noting are Wayne County and LaPorte County. Wayne County hasn't come in at all yet, and voted 10000 for Kerry in 04. LaPorte I already mentionned. So a big Hillary win in Wayne County means that between those 2 the margin is 6500 coming in favor of her, which I think probably cancels out everything other than Lake County that still has to be counted that would be PrObama. He'd need to win Lake by about 35000 votes then I think, give or take 5000, which means he'd have to win Lake by the same percent margin he won Indy, give or take again. Wayne county is all in I think. You may mean Union County. EDIT: no one lives in Union. Edited May 7, 2008 by KipWellsFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyCaucasian Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 FOr those not paying attention: Gavin Flyod has a no-no in the 8th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Balta1701 Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 QUOTE (KipWellsFan @ May 6, 2008 -> 06:06 PM) Wayne county is all in I think. You may mean Union County. Actually Wayne County just surged in a moment ago. Union county is very very sparse and essentially not worth noting. Big news in this post though. LaPorte county is now 1/2 in. It's only going 52/48 for Clinton right now, which completely overhauls the message of that last post and makes the margin for Lake need to be even smaller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KipWellsFan Posted May 7, 2008 Share Posted May 7, 2008 Laporte is matching the statewide total at over 50% reporting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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