2013 ZiPS Projections for White Sox

[Eminor3rd]

This stuff is very interesting to me, and I thought this might lend some context for the piecemeal discussions we've been having about how we feel about the 2013 roster to date. Keep in mind that ZiPS is one of the most conservative projection systems, but also one of the most accurate in terms of league-wide variance.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...cago-white-sox/

 

After seeing this, do you feel any better/worse about 2013?

[southsider2k5]

Not a single pitcher is projected to have an ERA under 3.67 in the pen?

[Jake]

I don't know. I find it unlikely that we don't have a 30 HR hitter. I'd say it's as likely that we have 5 (PK, Dunn, Viciedo, Rios, Flowers?) as us having 0. Both being not very likely.

 

I'd also be surprised if Sale with a mid 3 ERA is our only starter under 4. Peavy would be the obvious choice to be under 4, but it could be anyone.

 

If we only get 29/77 from Dunn, 26/80 from PK, 18/70 from Rios...we're not looking good. Our success really does largely hinge on those guys though. Other than Rios, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect better years from PK and Dunn, especially Dunn. Dayan should be better as well. 3B production will be up.

 

They seem a bit optimistic about our bullpen, but they aren't weighted very heavily in an overall calculation anyway.

[Jake]

Seems like ZiPs ends up making every player closer to league average than an average fan would expect.

[Eminor3rd]

I don't know. I find it unlikely that we don't have a 30 HR hitter. I'd say it's as likely that we have 5 (PK, Dunn, Viciedo, Rios, Flowers?) as us having 0. Both being not very likely.

 

I'd also be surprised if Sale with a mid 3 ERA is our only starter under 4. Peavy would be the obvious choice to be under 4, but it could be anyone.

 

If we only get 29/77 from Dunn, 26/80 from PK, 18/70 from Rios...we're not looking good. Our success really does largely hinge on those guys though. Other than Rios, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect better years from PK and Dunn, especially Dunn. Dayan should be better as well. 3B production will be up.

 

They seem a bit optimistic about our bullpen, but they aren't weighted very heavily in an overall calculation anyway.

 

Yeah, again, these always tend to be conservative on an individual player level, but accurate league-wide. So the right way to look at these is the mean of a range of outcomes, many of them very extreme -- and when you have older guys, there's a better chance they bust than when they are younger, so I think guys like Dunn/PK are dragged down by the very real possibility that they just die completely. Of course, Dunn is haunted more by his 2011, PK by his age. Same thing with Peavy, really. He's good but there's still a very real chance he gets hurt and gives us well below average production.

[Jake]

Yeah, again, these always tend to be conservative on an individual player level, but accurate league-wide. So the right way to look at these is the mean of a range of outcomes, many of them very extreme -- and when you have older guys, there's a better chance they bust than when they are younger, so I think guys like Dunn/PK are dragged down by the very real possibility that they just die completely. Of course, Dunn is haunted more by his 2011, PK by his age. Same thing with Peavy, really. He's good but there's still a very real chance he gets hurt and gives us well below average production.

 

GOD BLESS IT!

[Eminor3rd]

Seems like ZiPs ends up making every player closer to league average than an average fan would expect.

 

Indeed, this is probably true by design. I could be totally wrong, but I think the two main things that fuel it are (1) tons of player comps for development and aging curves, and (2) regression to the current league run environment.

[Eminor3rd]

GOD BLESS IT!

 

Haha, I'm sorry. I really am such a downer sometimes.

[3E8]

Not a single pitcher is projected to have an ERA under 3.67 in the pen?

Don't worry too much with the counting or rate stats. The big picture is that ZiPS projects 21 wins between our starting rotation and bullpen, which is one of the highest if not the highest I've seen yet. Unfortunately we have only a couple position players above average, and just barely above average at that.

[The Ginger Kid]

Not a single pitcher is projected to have an ERA under 3.67 in the pen?

Is Thornton going to be on this roster opening day? I seriously thought he would be gone this winter.

[Eminor3rd]

Is Thornton going to be on this roster opening day? I seriously thought he would be gone this winter.

 

Yeah, who knows. Doesn't look like a ton of opportunity left to move him. Also, I think they feel like they need his "veteran presence."

[southsider2k5]

Is Thornton going to be on this roster opening day? I seriously thought he would be gone this winter.

 

I am kind of surprised he is still here as well. His contract looks better and better as the winter goes on. I am kind of surprised we haven't found a trading partner.

[chw42]

I'm pleasantly surprised by these projections. I did not think we'd get so many wins out of our pitching. As for the position players...yuck.

[bhawk99]

Wow great news, Flowers is projected to hit under .220 with less then 15 HR's and under 40 RBI's. Who needs AJ with those impressive numbers from our new starting catcher.

[ptatc]

Wow great news, Flowers is projected to hit under .220 with less then 15 HR's and under 40 RBI's. Who needs AJ with those impressive numbers from our new starting catcher.

With his defense and contract, he will be a much better value than AJ.

[southsider2k5]

Wow great news, Flowers is projected to hit under .220 with less then 15 HR's and under 40 RBI's. Who needs AJ with those impressive numbers from our new starting catcher.

 

*yawns*

[3E8]

Wow great news, Flowers is projected to hit under .220 with less then 15 HR's and under 40 RBI's. Who needs AJ with those impressive numbers from our new starting catcher.

That projection for Flowers is only 331 plate appearances. Prorate it up to 500 PAs, which is more reasonable for a full-time catcher, and the projection is for Flowers' fWAR to be 1.7. AJ posted a lower fWAR than 1.7 in four of the last six seasons. And, as already mentioned, Flowers will be making near league minimum salary.

[caulfield12]

This stuff is very interesting to me, and I thought this might lend some context for the piecemeal discussions we've been having about how we feel about the 2013 roster to date. Keep in mind that ZiPS is one of the most conservative projection systems, but also one of the most accurate in terms of league-wide variance.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...cago-white-sox/

 

After seeing this, do you feel any better/worse about 2013?

 

Where are they getting the idea Tyler Saladino could be a key figure in 2013?

 

Viciedo with almost exactly the same projection?

 

They need to study the White Sox roster better, so at least they would know about Sanchez and spending more time talking about him, Trayce Thompson, etc.

 

And then there's sure to be a ton of disagreement about whether Quintana can put up another similar season, especially after all the innings he pitched (vis a vis career norms) in 2012.

[Balta1701]

Where are they getting the idea Tyler Saladino could be a key figure in 2013?

 

Viciedo with almost exactly the same projection?

 

They need to study the White Sox roster better, so at least they would know about Sanchez and spending more time talking about him, Trayce Thompson, etc.

 

And then there's sure to be a ton of disagreement about whether Quintana can put up another similar season, especially after all the innings he pitched (vis a vis career norms) in 2012.

I don't think that computer programs study the rosters all that well.

[caulfield12]

I don't think that computer programs study the rosters all that well.

 

 

I mean, the people who actually have to write the articles and interpret the date that's forthcoming.

 

Obviously, a computer can take someone like David Cook or CJ Retherford in AA and project major league totals for them...or Tyler Saladino, but it's pretty much a fruitless activity to give them much validity.

[Eminor3rd]

I mean, the people who actually have to write the articles and interpret the date that's forthcoming.

 

Obviously, a computer can take someone like David Cook or CJ Retherford in AA and project major league totals for them...or Tyler Saladino, but it's pretty much a fruitless activity to give them much validity.

 

Well, you have to understand Carson Cistulli. He's kind of obsessed with guys like Saladino, and he spends a lot of time bringing them to light and isn't exactly known for rigorous sabermetric truth (and he doesn't claim to be that kind of guy). I don't think he's saying that Saladino WILL be a good piece, I think he's just pointing out that Saladino would project to be useful, which is probably surprising and thus noteworthy, especially for a guy who likes to think about under-the-radar fringe guys.

[chw42]

Well, you have to understand Carson Cistulli. He's kind of obsessed with guys like Saladino, and he spends a lot of time bringing them to light and isn't exactly known for rigorous sabermetric truth (and he doesn't claim to be that kind of guy). I don't think he's saying that Saladino WILL be a good piece, I think he's just pointing out that Saladino would project to be useful, which is probably surprising and thus noteworthy, especially for a guy who likes to think about under-the-radar fringe guys.

 

Does he still have a boner for Charlie Blackmon?

Edited January 17, 2013 by chw42

[Eminor3rd]

Does he still have a boner for Charlie Blackmon?

 

Haha, you should ask him on Twitter

[caulfield12]

Well, you have to understand Carson Cistulli. He's kind of obsessed with guys like Saladino, and he spends a lot of time bringing them to light and isn't exactly known for rigorous sabermetric truth (and he doesn't claim to be that kind of guy). I don't think he's saying that Saladino WILL be a good piece, I think he's just pointing out that Saladino would project to be useful, which is probably surprising and thus noteworthy, especially for a guy who likes to think about under-the-radar fringe guys.

 

 

I guess this would largely be based on his high number of walks and doubles, mixed in with some stolen bases.

 

Sure...maybe. Sanchez has stolen a lot of the press from Tyler, who struggled in transitioning to a higher level of competition, but he does have some decent tools across the board, although none that jump out as a "plus plus" type of attribute.

 

Actually, the name had receded into memory with how much Sanchez jumped, and the initial projections of Sanchez being poised to take 2B from Beckham or possibly SS if Ramirez is traded.

[Marty34]

Juan Encarnacion, Richie Sexson, Joe Randa those are some ugly offensive comps. I'll take the Sale and Quintana comps, deal Peavy and Floyd by the deadline and put Santiago in the roation. Build around a Sale, Danks, Quintana, and Santiago rotation for 2014.