SoxBlanco

How do all those words you typed have anything to do with the post you quoted? We were discussing how players can sometimes struggle in AAA and then succeed in the majors, like Colson. It had nothing to do with using Smith in the bullpen.

Agreed. The numbers can especially be misleading for pitchers because we don’t know what they are being asked to work on.

When do people expect them to get the call up? Hopefully they follow Colson’s strategy of dominating in the majors after looking shaky in AA and/or AAA prior to getting the call. Seems like many fans have faded on both of them, similar to how they faded on Colson.

This was my first thought as well. “Highly likely” could just be another way to say front runner.

Good call. The 2018 draft is a pretty depressing list of names.

That stretch in Charlotte for Baldwin was insane. It honestly felt like he went deep every single game for a couple weeks.

Never thought there would come a time where Robert, at age 28, would have the lowest wRC+ projection in the lineup.

Really? You think they would make a decision now and then not change no matter what happens between now and the draft? Roch is the obvious pick right now. They would 100% pick him if the draft happened tomorrow. But they will obviously see how everything plays out.

How are you feeling about Smith? He had a solid showing in the AFL, I believe. Not sure how much that matters, but it seemed like he was getting better near the end of minor league season, as well.

You can get away with it if your starting 2B can play SS.

Love the Bonemer ranking. Credit to @Autumn Dreamin for this link:

Thanks. I didn’t realize Skubal had that velocity increase. You didn’t really answer the questions from my first paragraph, so I turned to Chat. It sounds like the run value stats are measuring results more than pure stuff, similar to ERA. Does that sound right? You could locate a perfect fastball with the bases loaded, but if the hitter breaks his bat and bloops one in for a couple RBI, it’s hurting your fastball run value (just like it’s hurting your ERA). Now, usually the best pitchers have the best ERA, so I’m guessing the best pitchers also have the best pitching run value stats. But it sounds like stats like FIP and xERA would be better predictors of future success. Would you agree with that?

You know much more about advanced stats than I do, so I have some questions for you. I’m curious how much the run value stats you cited predict future success. I’m also curious if they are more results based like ERA, or if they are more like FIP? I decided to look at Cannon’s page. In 2024, he was in the 47th percentile in fastball run value. In 2025, he was in the 3rd percentile of fastball run value. So did his fastball get that much worse? Or is there some luck involved there? I then wanted to look at an elite pitcher. I chose Tarik Skubal. In 2021 (his first full season), he was in the 20th percentile in pitching run value. Then he jumped to 78th in 2022, 93rd in 2023, and 100th in 2024 and 2025. Is that kind of jump after a rookie season extremely rare?

I’m really excited to see what Thorpe looks like after he returns. I’ve probably been higher on him than most.

Here’s the rationale provided by AI: (Oh boy, this feels too much like a caulfield post. I apologize in advance.) The rule feels counterintuitive at first, but it’s really about leverage, player development, and keeping the amateur pipeline stable. Here’s the rationale, step by step: First, MLB wants a clear choice point for players. High school seniors are at a natural decision moment: go pro now or go to college. If they’re drafted, they can sign and start their professional careers immediately. If they don’t like their draft position or bonus, they can choose college instead. That’s a clean fork in the road. Once a player enrolls in a four-year college, MLB wants that choice to “stick” for a while. Making college freshmen draft-eligible would create chaos, with players constantly bouncing between college and pro ball after just a few months. Second, it protects college baseball programs. If freshmen were draft-eligible, top recruits could be drafted again immediately after arriving on campus. Coaches would have no roster stability. Imagine building a team around a freshman ace or shortstop, only to lose him to the draft six months later. The current rule ensures schools get at least three years of development and contribution from elite players. Third, it balances bargaining power between players and teams. High school players have leverage because they can threaten to go to college. College juniors and draft-eligible sophomores have leverage because they can threaten to return to school. College freshmen would have almost no leverage. They’d already be enrolled, already used a year of eligibility, and wouldn’t yet have proven themselves at the college level. MLB teams could draft them cheaply, which is something the players’ union historically wanted to avoid. Fourth, it encourages development rather than churn. MLB prefers that players either: enter pro ball immediately out of high school, or spend meaningful time developing physically and mentally in college. A single freshman year often isn’t enough to evaluate true growth, and allowing drafting after just one college season would push teams toward speculation rather than development. Finally, the three-year rule creates a predictable system. A player at a four-year college becomes draft-eligible after: their junior year, or turning 21 years old. That gives MLB scouts, colleges, and players a shared timeline. Predictability matters in a system that spans thousands of players and dozens of levels of baseball.

What do you got vs a LH?

Figured it would be nice to have to have an ongoing offseason thread to discuss potential lineups. Feel free to make a separate one for facing a righty/lefty. As more moves are made, we can update predictions, but for now, assume Robert is still on the team.

Yeah, he turns 7 in a couple years.

Thanks for all the replies. This will be a very telling year for him with all the hype and expectations.

How was Roch rated coming out of high school? I like guys who always seem to be highly regarded and then keep living up to the expectations.

I take it you’re fine with the Sox not protecting him?

Mead was more likely to get on base in any given plate appearance last year than the Sox were to win the draft lottery. That tells you how fortunate we should feel right now.

Roch Cholowsky