SoxBlanco

It doesn't just have to be a home run. A lead off single or walk or double could help. But you are correct in that these are the questions that need to be asked in determining which decision gives you a higher probability of winning the game. Like I said earlier, it's a great discussion and I like hearing both sides if people would actually be willing to discuss it instead of saying "All that matters is keeping the Twins from scoring that inning."

Thank you. Now we are actually getting to the stuff that matters. I believe the hits/homers for Eloy over Dyson are more common than a defensive miscue that causes to Twins to tie or take the lead in that inning.

Ok, then can you please answer another question for me? In your estimation, how many innings this year has the opposing team scored a run because of Eloy's defense?

It literally wasn't big at all. It had no effect on the outcome of the game. But why does everybody refuse to answer my question? I can only assume they don't want to get into a discussion of the probabilities because they know it will be bad for their side of the argument. It's a simple question that I have asked multiple people here, and nobody wants to answer it.

Can you please answer this question for me? In your estimation, how many balls has Eloy missed this year that Dyson would have caught?

No, those things actually do happen. How can you possibly think hitting a baseball is equivalent to those?

They acquired Dyson because he was basically free and there are certain situations where he should be used. Just because he isn't used in every situation (based on the several conditions you described) doesn't mean he can't help at all.

Oh. My. God. Now guys are trying to hit it to left field because they know Eloy is bad defensively? You can't be serious.

Significantly? How can you possibly say that? We've played about 415 defensive innings this year. How many of those innings has Eloy's defense cost us a run? I'm not asking rhetorically...I'm actually asking for an estimation.

I think odds are that we still win the game even WITH a defensive blunder out there in left field, just like we saw. And that defensive blunder has about a 1% or 2% of happening to begin with (in my estimation).

Exactly. Another layer to it is that if the Twins tied it with a bloop and a blast or a walk and a blast (which I believe is much more likely than Eloy's defense costing us the game), and Eloy leads off the 9th with a single, it would be nice to have Dyson to pinch run there. I think Dyson pinch running with nobody out increases your chances of winning more than putting Dyson in left field increases your chances.

And I mentioned why comparing infielders to outfielders is dumb. Also, even if infielders and outfielders were comparable, how many times do you think a defensive replacement was used who had no effect on that half inning, and then that spot came up in the lineup later in the game?

I will add that last night was evidence that "all it takes is one" is simply wrong. We got that "one" last night (which had about a 1% or 2% chance of happening), and it didn't even affect the game. So actually, it took more than one last night.

Comparing infielders to outfielders is ridiculous in this situation. I would 100% agree with putting in a defensive replacement for an infielder in that situation. But even the worst outfielders in the league catch almost all of the same balls that the best outfielder in the league would catch.

This is such a horrible way of looking at it. You obviously refuse to look at the math and probabilities that come into play, so it's not even worth my time to discuss it with you.

This is absolutely wrong. I'm willing to hear both sides of the argument because I think it's a great discussion, but to say the only thing matters is preventing the Twins from scoring is just wrong. Making decisions for what is best in the moment without looking ahead to how it could affect the rest of the game is a horrible way to make decisions. Let me ask you this: In your estimation, how many balls have been hit to left field this entire year that Eloy didn't catch, but Dyson would have caught if he was in there?

And we would likely have enough pitching/defense to overcome the 1% chance that there happens to be a ball hit to left field that Eloy can’t catch but Dyson would have. Mathematically, I think the chances of the Twins scoring 2 runs is much more likely than one of those specific balls being hit to left field and it costs us the game.

I’ve said it in two other threads now, and I would love it if it became its own thread, but I think RR made the correct decision to leave Eloy in the game there.

I just made a post about this in the Stone/RR thread. I actually think leaving Eloy in the game improves your overall chances of winning the game. It’s a great discussion to have, though. I wouldn’t mind if it became its own thread.

I’m not a RR fan, but I actually think it was the right decision to leave Eloy in the game there. It’s more likely that the Twins score a couple runs without the defense of the left fielder being a factor than it is for a ball to be hit to left field that Dyson would catch and Eloy wouldn’t, where that ball actually causes the Twins to tie it or take the lead. It reminds me of when Konerko used to get pinch run for in the bottom of the 9th when he would be on first base with two outs in a tie game. Sure, it improves your chances to win that half inning, but I don’t believe it improves your chances to win the game overall. So many times, Konerko’s spot would come up in extras and he was already out of the game. And in those 9th innings, what were the chances that the next guy up would happen to hit a ball in the gap where Konerko wouldn’t score but the pinch runner would?

Great question. I’m not sure if I ever posted a Mazara home run prediction here, but I’ve definitely texted my brother during games at least 17 times saying “Here comes his first homer”. ?

Is Colome an option for next year? Everybody talks as if he's as good as gone after this year, but I think he's one of the most under-appreciated Sox pitchers in a long time because he makes things interesting a bit too often. However, it's not like guys are hitting rockets right at the defenders all the time when he's in there. He gets legitimate swing and misses on that nasty cutter. Ask almost every fan base if their closer makes things interesting in the 9th inning, and they will all probably tell you something similar. With Colome, it's tough to argue with the White Sox record when leading after 8 innings over the past two seasons. I'm not positive, but I think we've only lost one game.

If hitting coaches are going to get blamed and ridiculed when an offense sucks, then they surely should get credit for when the offense is awesome. Whatever Menechino is doing is working, even if that means backing off when things are clicking.

Ah, gotcha. My bad. So you were agreeing with me there. I misread what you were trying to say. Thanks for clarifying.

I’m not sure what point you are trying to make here.