Look at Ray Ray Run

Paddack change up has everyone off balance today. That pitch is nasty.

I think most fans downplay how difficult rehab is; it takes away the best part about their "job" and replaces it with 12-16 months of grueling physical work and draining mental work that's reward is hopefully returning to form. To go through that process for 12 months and then have that same injury reoccur really makes you doubt yourself and the process. The mental wear and tear that it has on you is overlooked. It's why I never judge an athlete for "not coming back" when the world thinks they're ready. The last thing a player in professional sports wants to do is practice/rehab and not actually play in the games. When you're scared that the next step you take could ruin your entire career - everything you've worked towards for the past 15 years - you are stuck in a lonely place. You think about reinjuring yourself for months after rehab/repair. It's bad enough going through it once, but twice is probably mentally distructive.

This doesn't mean he's given up; do you really think the Sox invited him to camp and he said thanks but no thanks? Also, do you expect him to post videos from the strenuous and lonely rehab process on his social media? I don't get the assumptions many are making; rehab is horribly lonely and depressing... even more so when you consider that this is his career on the line, and he worked his ass of (I'm sure he did) the first time only to fall victim to the same injury. This is a traumatic injury as well, and it really limits the amount of cardio and etc you can do to stay in shape. Burger may just have a body type that, regardless of his work, will be a little larger. The fear that must seep into his head when doing the most basic drills is immense. I don't know why anyone thinks they know anything about his work ethic and etc... rumors were derived from his appearance - nothing said by anyone within the organization. By all accounts, his teammates constantly post and support him on social media as well so he doesn't appear to be some lazy asshat whose teammates hate him.

Which would still be a wRC+ north of 190 more than likely.

If Vaughn put up those numbers in AA, he'd be putting up a wRC+ north of 220. Robert had a wRC+ at AA of 155 with a 362/518. If Vaughn put up 475/625, that would be unreal and he wouldn't be long for the minor leagues as that would be historically good at that level.

baseball has been a game in the shadows for quite some time; with very little access and non-scripted behind the scenes looks. people aren't sitting in BP commenting or analyzing a guys swing and etc; that wouldn't be normal per se. I can definitely see why some don't find the content interesting, but to be fair baseball practices and training isn't all that loud or "Exciting"; it's just routine work. It's nice to see some of the drills they go through, and the groupings within the team, but people expecting some highly edited production level (hard knocks style) for Tim's homemade videos are going to be greatly disappointed.

Different strokes for different folks. I'm actually surprised more people haven't felt the way you have regarding his videos; I enjoy them but I could 100% understand how an older generation would not get them or would grow tired with the language and repetitive nature of the message; also the music he reps is more in line with younger kids than an older generation as well.

“Now that I’ve experienced it,” Tim Jr. says, “I get to pour into him my positive energy. He doesn’t have to worry about how I feel. I’m always in the positive state. Trying to stay positive. Trying to keep people around me positive, man. And, man, life’s tough. Life’s tough. We go through so much every day. Every day. So I just try to drive a positive line and try to stay away from negative energy and try not to let that rub off on me. “He always said ‘I love you.’ That was enough for me. When you’re going through that, not many people would say that. I love you. You know? And when I would talk, he would listen. Not many people would hear me out. But when I would sit with him or have a conversation with him, he would actually listen … We’re all human. We make mistakes. We make them twice. We make them three times. You know? And it goes on and it goes on. You can’t hold grudges on people. You got to continue to move on, man. Life’s so short. You don’t want to hold that grudge. I don’t want to feel like that.” Everyone could take to the above excerpt; staying positive is at the basis of enjoying life. There is no reason to carry anger, or a grudge, with you day to day. Move on, forgive and grow. Well said by a guy who has been through a lot of shit.

Jack the argument here revolves around you insinuating a low k rate is bad. So the option isnt hitting the pitchers pitch or walking. In the example you gave and Implied, he either k's or hits a pitchers pitch. The BABIP on a strike out isnt great.

a would be a great theory jack if Madrigal wasn't runnin above average walk rates. b would be a great point if you actually thought not making contact on a pitchers pitch is somehow better than making contact lol

I edited my post to further show you proof. It's not what I think here, this is a statistical fact. I'm not sure what to tell you if you refuse to believe the actual outcomes. and contact quality, as you are defining it and as defined by FG's and all other publications (under soft, medium, hard) does not account for EV.

If I post an external source will you accept this fact, or are you just going to be hung up on one comparison and player? Maybe Ozzie had a high IFFB rate? Maybe he hit 75% of his GB's to one side of the field. What I can say is his low babip had very very little to do with his perceived "soft, medium, hard" contact rates. In the last 20 years, the highest "soft hit rate" in major league baseball belongs to Ichiro - Ichiro has a career BABIP of 298. Second? Dyson, with a 291 BABIP. 3rd? Jose Reyes with a 291 BABIP. 4th? Adam Engel with a 305 BABIP. Soft hit rate does not at all correlate to a lower BABIP. Over that same period of time, the second highest hard hit rate in baseball? Joey Gallo. He has a career BABIP of 275. Why? Because he's a heavy FB hitter with heavy pull tendencies on the ground. THat is what suppresses BABIP, not EV or contact quality.

Additionally I have no idea how you are managing to turn Madrigal's k-rate into a negative thing. Madrigal doesn't "not k" because he's bunting or throwing his bat haplessly at the ball just to touch it - he doesn't not k because he's hitting endless pitchers pitches. He doesn't K because he has the ability to cover the entire plate and he has great hands. This assumption that if Yolmer only struck out 10% of the time instead of 20% that those extra 10% of balls in play would be weak ducks because they would come off pitchers pitches is just wrong and I have no idea where you read it. Of players with the 10 lowest k-rates over the past decade, the average BABIP for that group of players was 299.2; right around league average.

Again, this statistically is not true. Contact quality does not even take into account exit velocity; it literally has next to zero impact on a players expected BABIP. You are confusing the difference in OPS and BA on LD, FB's, IFFB and GB's with quality of contact and EV. What we have learned about BABIP in the last 10 years is that the league average remains 300, but some players are capable of being better, and the ones who are worse are driven by FB's and pull tendencies. It has nothing to do with contact quality.

Ozzie Guillen ran a 280 BABIP for his career; lower than league average, but not some albatross, and there's literally zero batted ball data on Guillen so I can't analyze the driving factors behind that number but it wasn't quality of contact driven. Picking one year is very disingenuous: Guillen also had a year with a 3.6% walk rate and a .312 BABIP. I'm not sure what I'm not explaining, but quality of contact plays a very very small part of what an expected BABIP is. I'm talking about less than .02 to the number. So 290 compared to 292. Nick Madrigal will not run a 260-270 career BABIP, and if his contact rate holds steady that means he'll likely hit better than 280 for his career with a ceiling north of 300.

In addition, Yolmer Sanchez BABIP would not be "much lower" if he put the balls in play that he swung and missed on. I'm not sure where you got that idea. Yolmer Sanchez, despite hitting the ball nearly softer than everyone in baseball last year had a .324 BABIP - the best year of his career despite having the lowest EV and etc of his career.

This is just not true. Things that force BABIP below the league average .300 rate is: being ground ball pull heavy and an extremely high fly ball rate. There is no correlation between iso and BABIP. If you put a ball in play, spray to all fields, have a league average GB/FB rate and do nothing else you're BABIP is going to come in around 290-300. Quality of contact plays a very small part in ones BABIP. There is also no correlation between hard hit rate and BABIP on it's own. For Madrigal to run BABIP's in the 260-270 range, he would have to be unlucky given his batted ball profile.

Yeah, and even Scutaro would have been around a .293 career hitter if he struck out only 3.7% of the time; instead he was .277.

Now you are assuming Madrigal makes contact on the pitches that struck Yolmer out. In addition, there is no correlation between .iso and BABIP. Madrigal's projected BABIP sits between 282-295. His MiLB BABIP was 312 last year. Madrigal hits so few homers, and strikes out so little, that his BABIP will be nearly identical to his batting average. So if you think Madrigal is going to hit 260-270, you are of the belief that he is going to run BABIP numbers around the same area as guys who have had their BABIP's zapped by shifting/being dead pull hitters.

And Madrigal's rookie year ISO is projected to be 20 points higher than Yolmer's was last year. His MiLB iso number was 32 points higher.

You compared a guy who strikes out 21% of his AB's to a guy who strikes out 3.7% of the time. Yolmer strikes out 5+ times as often and puts way less balls in play. They are really nothing alike. Madrigal has also walked more than Yolmer. If Yolmer put the ball in play as often he would have hit 300+

I mean, he ran A LOT. He was only on 1st base 28 times the entire year haha, and he stole 9 bases and was caught 3 times. He was basically running 42+% of the time he reached first base. To put that in perspective, Dee Gordon was on 1st base 205 times the year he stole 60 bases and was caught 16 times. So he was running roughly 37% of the time. Obviously James is in the AZL so it's not the same, but running 42% of the time and having a conversion rate of 75% isn't bad for a kid with very limited high level coaching and competition.

Bump for JImmy! You are spot on Jimmy, but Madrigal makes the roster. I still feel that way.

Not much, but I didn't see him catch much last year either. He looks better behind the plate though - threw a guy out today and he looked better catching the ball in his start but you're right that I have nothing to really support that outside of eye sight that can be deceiving so it doesnt really while much weight.

Thanks for all the updates SW! Been awesome as I cut my game in and out at the office.