Look at Ray Ray Run

The question is... would you draft Frank Thomas with the 1st pick in the draft. The obvious answer is yes. Given that Vaughns ceiling is the best hitter in the world, I'd say the Frank Thomas ceiling and possibility is a valid comparison.

For the record I dont think this is accurate as it does not count Josh Donaldson for the Cubs.

While luck surely plays a significant factor in the $816M separating the Dodgers and White Sox in terms of Value Generated, it is telling that several of the organizations towards the bottom of our list have recently invested in many of the developmental tools the Dodgers and Astros have been using for years.

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2019/04/finding-star-nothing-luck-quantifying-effectiveness-mlb-player-development/

Yeah, just league adjusted.

It's all about leagues and parks in the minors. Robert's wRC+ after today is going to be around 170. Juan Soto's AA wRC+ was 171. In that park Robert is absolutely dominating.

Didnt start playing baseball until his junior year of high school. Wowser.

Trejyn Fletcher. If Fletcher had grew up in Florida and played baseball year round, he'd have a chance of being a top 5 pick. He's had limited reps, limited people have seen him, and his hit tool is a bit raw... but his tools, yeesh. 6.6 60, 93 mph fb, 95 mph ev, 81 mph bat speed, 90 mph from the outfield. Huge power. Great elite athlete and he reclassed to 2019 and is young.

I participated in a lot of showcases as a kid. Area code games my senior year were in Minneapolis, and for some reason beyond my understanding there were a lot more scouts at Perfect Game showcase than at the area code games. I am guessing because northern kids probably are more volatile because they have so fewer reps. But, trout did open some eyes. It's why I'm so excited about Bryce Bush even with his struggle this year. Bryce Bush, being from Michigan, has HALF as many reps as a Cali or Florida kid... to be competing against those kids already shows a maturity level. He might never figure it out but he's much more likely to figure it out than someone who hasnt adjusted despite having twice as many reps. There's a ton of baseball talent in the north east and midwest - you just dont get to see it as often. Kelenic is actually a great example of how the game has evolved but you could argue it still hasnt corrected enough and that he was UNDERRATED because he was from Wisconsin. The game has definitely evolved enough that you'll never see another Mike trout situation again.

For some reason, it really bothers me that everyone blames player outcomes on coaching and the organization. Being great at player development may mean you turn a utility talent into an everyday player... or an above average player into a star. You get the most of the potential but you dont make the potential. You're not turning a minor leaguer into a ++ big league player. Talent dominates this world. Our insistence on trying to teach a difficult task (plate discipline) doesn't help either but these guys arent failing because the Sox are sabotaging them. It's likely they're failing because they didn't have the talent to begin with. Poor drafting is much more likely than poor development. It's not as if heinze was some development guru with Thomas, Ventura, Fernandez and etc. Those guys were just stupid talented and great picks. With all the external tools available away from the team at a players disposal these days, theres honestly no excuse for development.

If you want to find undervalued high school kids - take northern kids who have performed well on showcases but have limited reps. Mike trout was very clearly the best high school player in the country but because he was from Jersey, he got docked. This happens frequently with northern kids because they have half as many reps as the southern kids - this also means they still have much more room to grow.

Abbot. The fucking water polo player, right? What a terrible pick.

Not "all." They share the same FV grade from most so its semantics beyond that. I would rather have Abrams - high school power grades are stupidly inefficient. It is just as possible that Abrams pulls a Lindor as it is him hitting 10 Homer's a year. I'll take the supreme athlete given that their hit tools are so similar.

My goodness. You realize that it's much more likely the Sox have drafted poorly than developed poorly?

No, but he's not old for a senior either. Witt is. I know some here think 4 months or 5 months and etc dont matter but it certainly does for a developing kid and it is absolutely an advantage.

1 year is a lot in the baseball world. Being a year older than everyone you play against is a big advantage. Being 1/2 a year older matters. Scouts have certainly discredited Whit for being older than his peers.

I would rather have Abrams than Witt. Witt's age concerns me when compared to Abrams. Abrams a more talented kid.

Madrigal is responsible for his development. Excusing him by blaming someone else is a lazy way out. Madrigal wasn't/isn't supposed to require a significant amount of development. I'm still convinced he'll figure it out.

Baseball scouting is so inexact that it's not abnormal for one team (or a collection) to like a guy in the top 5 while another team may not like him in the 1st round at all.

By all accounts, Vaughn will stay at first and is far supreme to Beer in that regard... also, Vaughn had less swing and miss in his game, and has shown more consistency. Beer, by my personal opinion, was under drafted though because of prospect fatigue and because people fall in love with possibility more than production. Vaughn would be the #1 pick in the draft if he was left handed or if he was 6'4. The fact that he is neither of those things actually has next to zero impact on his likely outcomes so they really shouldn't determine where he's drafting.

This obsession with Madrigal at this point is a bit much. He's played less than one full season of professional baseball and was coming off a debilitating injury. He's not a finished product. No one who is 5'6 is ever a SAFE pick. The Sox took a chance there, but Madrigal does some things really well.

Not sure what this means; JD Martinez was signed for free. He's the best hitter in baseball possible. Does that mean you shouldn't invest in strong hitting outfielders? Comparing CJ Cron to Andrew Vaughn is like comparing Adam Eaton to Bryce Harper.

This is exactly why you should be taking Vaughn; the fact that he is this high despite stigma's like yours shows how good his bat is. I like to draft elite tools - they are safer than unrefined tools. He may lack elsewhere, but those two tools he has are so loud it's crazy

Yes Jack, if he doesn't perform it's a bad pick but if he does it's a good one. He's the safest pick in the draft; there is risk tied to every draft pick in baseball, but Vaughn is about as safe as it gets. I understand your argument - 2 tool guys have more risk than 5 tool guys in turns of being complete busts - but you just don't get where Vaughn is without being about as can't miss of a hitter as you'll find. Vaughn could roll out of bed tomorrow and hit 25-30 hr's and 250 in the big leagues tomorrow. His ceiling is the best hitter in baseball. You just shouldn't pass on that.

I thought seth beer was under drafted for this same reason. He had some contact questions that didn't help his cause but he dominated the college scene for 3 years offensively. He has no glove or position really though. Beer is crushing the ball this year in AA.