Look at Ray Ray Run

Would seem the implications is we're the team offering the most money not the 2nd most but that they want more than both offers from someone if they can.

Ken seems to be out of the loop intentionally on this. Maybe he has seen all the animosity and doesnt want a part of spreading nonsense?

It feels this way to me - seems the Phillies think they're not going to beat the Sox out on Manny but can with Bryce.

Pretty sure he means he has an offer he could tolerate from the Sox so theres no chance he doesnt get close to what he wants but he might as well continue to wait and see if anyone beats it.

The Yankees don't want to pay manny. Not sure how many people have to say it before everyone understands. Manny and Harper are grasping at straws. No team will have someone get hurt and then say... well now I guess we'll spend 300 million we didnt plan on before.

Dont get caught up on the 7 number so much. No person who works with statistics, models and projections would ever give some arbitrary hard cut off point if it wasnt for the general public not understand stats. It makes it easier to explain but its not the "official" cut off point. It's the most likely cutoff point based on decades of data. 7 WAR was, roughly, the cut off point of the top 3 pitchers in the game over decades. The game has changed and come back a bit. As I said, consider the #1 projection to mean a pitcher that performs two standard deviations better than the mean. In that case, all the pitchers I name fall right of that r.

No. Sales 3 peak seasons put him at 6.8 which qualifies him as a one with peaks of 7+. Sale would qualify. Max would, as would kluber and kersh. No one else in baseball would qualify. 7 is an arbitrary cutoff point that statistics determined - throughout the history of the game - was where the top 3-4 sit over a large enough sample. The fact that innings have come backward a bit and overall SP WAR is down will change the bell curve in which the top 3-4 in baseball fall within. If you are two standard deviations from the mean, you are an ace - that is pretty much how they calculate that.

Because replacement level does not equal mlb caliber. 1 WAR isnt worth 9 million but 4 WAR may be worth 36 million. Each win is not equal. Youre taking 7 a little too literally. 6.7 over 3 years would qualify on their system with peaks of 7+. Most scouts will not say this guy is a #1. I agree it seems dumb based on the evidence and the fact that your job is to project a true outcome and by never giving out an 80 grade or #1 ceiling you eliminate any possibility of being 99% efficient. For example, kopechs fastball is a 70. Then why even have an 80 on the scale? He throws harder than anyone in the game and he has a top tier spin rate on that pitch. If his fastball isnt an 80 then remove 80 from the scale.

If you take sales peak 3 seasons and hes pretty much right there. Hes 6.9. Same with scherzer, Kershaw and etc. They are all close enough to be valid. I didnt make the system I'm merely explaining how scouts evaluate. Think of how rare chris sale is btw. Expecting any prospect to be as good as Chris sale is absurd. So projecting a prospect to be a hall of Famer statistically isnt plausible which is why they error on the side of caution. You predict three guys to be true #1's (hofers) and they all suck and no one is listening to you anymore.

I just have no idea how the White Sox could possibly allow/promote/be OK with all of this stuff if they didn't think it was near certain. How else does this organization survive the disappointment after all of this stuff they have openly catered to?

Floor is mean of the lowest 20% outcomes. Expected Outcome is the mean of the middle 80%. Ceiling is the mean of the top 20% outcomes. 8 WAR is great, but in scout speak a number 1 is a someone who can average 7 WAR over an extended period of time. Having one season over 7 doesn't put you in the class; it's multiple seasons averaging nearly 7 WAR per that is required to be a number one based on their evaluation.

Yes, but that is not how scouts refer to ceiling. That's what I am saying. In scout speak, a ceiling is the most likely (mean) of his top 20% outcomes. They explain that on baseball prospectus and fangraphs pretty thoroughly if you read their ranking procedure. You are mistaking a casual fans definition with the actual definition used by talent evaluators in the game.

Here is the breakdown: A #3 is 3.5-4.9 WAR. That would put him - on the high side - as the 11th best starter in baseball last year, on the low side it puts him 18th. That's a reasonable projection. Pitcher WAR Mapped to 20-80 Scale Scouting Scale Role WAR 20 Org Guy – 30 Up & Down < -0.1 40 Backend starters, FIP typically close to 5.00 0.0 to 0.9 45 #4/5 starters, FIP approx 4.20 1.0 to 1.7 50 #4 starters. Approx 4.00 FIP, at times worse but then with lots of innings 1.8 to 2.5 55 #3/4 starters. Approx 3.70 FIP along with about 160 IP 2.6 to 3.4 60 #3 starters, 3.30 FIP, volume approaching 200 innings 3.5 to 4.9 70 #2 starters, FIP under 3, about 200 IP 5.0 to 7.0 80 #1s. Top 1-3 arms in baseball. ‘Ace’ if they do it several years in a row. >7.0

The mistake people make is that when someone says his ceiling, they mean the mean of the top 20% of outcomes. They don't mean his absolute top 1% outcome. If a ceiling was every prospects top 1% outcome, then all the top 100 pitching prospects would have #1 ceilings. If you read FG's break down of #1, #2 and #3 you'll realize that being projected as a number three means he's projected to be a top 20ish starter in baseball as his mean top 20% outcome. A ceiling is not the best possible outcome it is the most likely top 20% outcome.

A couple answers: 1. A number 3 ceiling is about as high as most guys will go. The scouting definition of a number one is 5 WAR a season for a sustained period of time. Literally only Sale, Kershaw, and Scherzer have met that criteria over the time period. A number 1 isn't what most fans think - a top 15ish/20ish pitcher in baseball. A number 1 in scouting minds is a top 3 arm in baseball for an extended period of time and scouts simply don't project that for anyone usually. Kopech is also coming off Tommy John and etc... a number 3 is a glowing endorsement for a guy with his up and downs. It doesn't mean Kopech can't be on of the best pitchers in baseball - it means that the top 20% of his outcomes averages out as a good #3 which is 3+ WAR for a sustained period of time. His top 10% outcome is that of a number one maybe, but no prospect ranker will say that. 2. Fangraphs doesn't love Cease and their ranking move actually shows they're coming around. They had Cease as a reliever even half way through last year - his size, injury history, durability and etc were concerns for him. Cease isn't very big, he throws hard, and he has had arm issues. I will say that their insistence on his stuff being better suited for the bullpen always seemed stubborn to me after last year - clearly the kid has the stuff to be a starter in the big leagues.

The White Sox outspent the Cubs in: 2013 2012 2011 2008 2007 2006 It's hard to call Jerry cheap, when in the last 13 years, he almost outspent the Cubs in 50% of those years. They practically spent the same amount in 2015 too.

Jerry has a weird reputation I think - mainly because of his push for the strike. For multiple years, Jerry spent the highest percentage of revenue on payroll in the entire league. The White Sox operated with top 5 payrolls despite being around 10-12th (estimates) in revenue. Jerry has areas in baseball in which he has been cheap and hurt the team - mainly on the drafting, scouting and development side of things - but he has also paid people market rates and typically outspent their revenue figures. It's hard to call a guy spending the highest percentage of revenue on payroll cheap, but I do understand why some say that.

You are absolutely not PLANNING for a guy to opt out when budgeting these contracts when they are initially signed. You absolutely cannot bank on the departure of 35 million - that's just not how you manage a business budget. It is possible one leaves, but it's also possible one gets hurt badly, and the other struggles enough that he never opts out.

The number I put them at was 180 million - which is very generous for a team that has never broken 130. With Anderson, you'd have 3 players making 80 million; leaving 22 players to make up the remaining 100 million. Even with pre-arb players, that leaves very little room to invest in anything else significant - if they wanted to sign a good pitcher it would cost them 20+ million a year. Now we're at 70-75 million for 21 players. Hence the stars and scrubs comment. They could, but they won't.

The White Sox are not spending 208 million on payroll. The White Sox aren't paying luxury tax. I have no idea why people think this will change.

Salary figures are trending downward in the MLB, so I don't think this is a correct number in the least bit. Payrolls have not been going up with revenue increase - they have stagnated a bit.

Well, I'm using a 30+ year sample of Reinsdorf owning the team as my budget. If you think the Chicago White Sox are going to start spending 200 million and competing with the Yankees and Dodgers for the top payroll in MLB then I'm afraid you are going to be one disappointed fan. They have operated in the top 5 when they have been successful, which is why I give them 50 extra million than they've ever spent before because they have been in that territory before... but 180 is being very generous. They certainly aren't threatening to outspend the big boys though.

Sure, but banking on filling your roster with 22 prospects and having them pan out just isn't realistic. They have no one else signed for 2021. They will clearly want to add other pieces. The White Sox will be lucky if 6 of their top 20 prospects become average/above average MLB contributors. They need more veterans, and they won't be able to afford them if they sign both.

baseball reference salary obligations. Herrera and Jones have mutual/vesting options. So they are not 100% committed and locked up. The only person signed in 2021 for sure, is Tim Anderson. They will literally have to fill out an entire roster in 2021 and it won't be 22 minor league prospects, Tim Anderson, Byrce and Manny. That will not work.

So you think the White Sox are suddenly going to start outspending the Yankees and Dodgers? The White Sox have never once had a pay higher than 129 million. They were top 5 in payroll (5th) 4 times in the past 15 years. If they return to that, it puts them around 180 million and I am being generous with that ceiling given that they've never had a payroll over 129 million.