Chisoxfn

QUOTE (GO CHI SOX! @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 01:54 PM) 8-7 with a 5.92 era over this year is nothing to really to get excited over. The Rays are getting the better end of this deal by saving money over the next 2 years. Kazmir is having just a little bit better season than Contreras. But Kazmir is 4-1 in his last 6. Im not sure what to make of him. Kazmir was hurt, but since he came back he's pitched much much much more like the old Scott Kazmir. Is he overpaid, sure, but is he still young with a lot of good years left, probably.

Lot of money owed to Kazmir, but the Angels lost a ton of contracts last off-season off there books (Krod, Tex, GA, etc) and have Lackey, Vladdy, and Figgins all coming due this year so financially they should be in a pretty darn good position. Plus they are getting closer and closer to getting Matthews Jr's awful contract off the books.

Insane. What a f***ing great deal. I'm stoked as a secondary Angel fan.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 01:22 PM) Are we really sure he's healthy? Ozzie doesn't usually protect hurt players. If he was hurt, something would have came out by now. Just like it did with Paulie's thumb injury.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 11:56 AM) Well, supply of existing homes is small maybe because if anyone sells, they lose their rears on the price, so they'll stay put until they see an appreciation of the value of their house. Yep, I made a post below with regards to the people in that position, but the reality is you won't have any true recovery until we start seeing the everyday homeowner begin to sell there places and move to new ones. Most sales are new home-buyers and that is a great thing, but its tough when you don't have a ton of people selling nor do you have much new production.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 11:55 AM) I think having it THAT low is a very localized thing. Nationally, that isn't the case. Its a lot lower than it was, but most places aside from a few isolated counties are not that way yet. In fact, put it this way, if I'm Joe Blow equity owner and I've seen prices drop by ~30% (which is the standard in SoCal) well than my only options are the following (unless I'm forced into selling, ie, by a transfer or an increase need for a different sized home): 1. Stay where I am and let the economy rebound 2. Move to a more expensive place knowing that that place is also down 30% so the net impact is really no big deal The problem with point 2 is that in this economy it is probably very difficult for someone to be in a position where they can afford that new home and even if they can the next question is how are they going to get financing. The above is the exact reason that the supply is so out of whack in most areas that were hard hit currently, imo. Or at least its my theory.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 11:55 AM) I think having it THAT low is a very localized thing. Nationally, that isn't the case. Its a lot lower than it was, but most places aside from a few isolated counties are not that way yet. All of my stuff was referring to the SoCal market which was the hardest hit by this entire thing (along with Nevada, AZ, and Florida).

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 11:24 AM) Not what I have seen. Heck, one of my people here was just telling me they were below 700, and will get dinged on the rate, but will still get a new loan. I think your statement was true back in the winter and spring. Less so now. NBC and others have done some stories lately about people having trouble re-financing to make things affordable, and having trouble - and that doesn't surprise me. But that is also a different equation than new lending (new buyers or buyer/sellers). If you are doing that type of loan you are putting 20% down for the most part and while that might have been the standard thing, that isn't the easiest thing for the younger buyer who is the person leading this so called housing recovery. FHA is the route I think most new home-buyers are going in, but you'll pay a bit more long-term although given the shakiness of the market I can't blame anyone for not wanting to sink 20% into something.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 11:18 AM) Supply is low? No way. Demand is trickling back up because of some of the incentives out there, but in no way is there a large demand - as you said, jobs, credit, etc. are still damn hard to come by. Inventories are pretty large at this point as well. It depends on the supply you look at and the marketplace. But in my area I'd consider supply extremely low. Buyers are more extensive than sellers but even than we are talking about low numbers, scaringly low, it just happens to be that supply is at all time lows and the volume of transactions is as well.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 11:14 AM) Except I really don't believe that supply is nearly as low as it seems. There are a ton of people who want to see but can't, because of either job, credit, credit market, or upside down issues right now. The resistance for a recovery in the housing market is huge right now. I can think of no better example than the auto market fundamentals we just saw, except this is much bigger because of the huge price losses in many markets. Supply is incredibly low when you look at the supply of homes that is actually available for sale. I'm referring to homes that aren't on short sales. These homes will eventually get foreclosed on and go the REO route and become available and as soon as that happens you'll see the prices fall back down again. The biggest thing that will keep the markets stagnant is that there will still be another year or two of this short sale to REO cycle. When you than realize that is all that is on the market and that there is zero incentive for equity sellers to move (unless they are forced too) since there is very little available on the market that they'd want to move up to or down to and no true motivation (aside from increasing family size, or a new job which moves you to another market) and I really see very little things which would indicate that the housing market is in recovery mode. I think its stabilized, but I don't think we are about to see appreciation anytime soon. And this is before we even talk about the ease of getting capital, which right now, is very very difficult. In fact, I ultimately think the item which will launch an appreciation might just be a government program which further stimulates capital and allows for loans to start getting processed and thus maybe opening up equity sellers and putting money out onto the markets.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 11:12 AM) The low supply you are referring to is a fundamental support in the market. The fact that is has gotten a lot lower is good, not bad. Its not an indication of anything temporary, its quite the opposite. If sales and prices suddenly jumped while supply was not going down significantly, then THAT would tell me this this will go back down again, and that it was purely tax-deal and foreclosure-inspired blips. But as supply keeps getting lower in going with the prices, and more people snatch up the foreclosure properties, the market is correcting in a fundamental way. I'm talking about a supply where there are 30 offers per place, which tells you that you that the reason for the price increase is because the demand/supply curves are currently off and it is because of where the markets are currently priced. This is basically a full on shortage in the supply of homes for sale. In fact, in a typical market where supply was this low you would expect prices to sky-rocket much more than they have, which again, to me is a cause for concern.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 10:42 AM) I don't think that's an official lineup. Aren't those available much closer to game time? Ya, I didn't realize it so I changed my post.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 07:40 AM) Rios, Beckham, Quentin, Konerko, Thome, Dye, Pierzynski, Ramirez, Nix I like the above with CC on the mound.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 12:17 PM) Dye might get more days off, but he isn't getting benched. The reason Swisher got benched is because he acted like an idiot on a day that Ozzie gave him off. Dye is a professional, and isn't going to show up his manager or other players. I think someone could question why Dye stayed in the 3 spot of the lineup for so long, but there is no way the Sox are going to bench a guy whose produced like Jermaine has over the past few years. He's healthy and in a funk, but when he gets out of it, he'll get out of it big and he might damn well carry the Sox to a surprising post-season birth.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 10:26 AM) Thanks Jas, I appreciate it. It sounds silly, but I find this stuff incredibly interesting. There is a reason I passed up sportscasting and broadcasting to stay with econ. based things. I think you and Matt do an outstanding job going back and forth too. Its very educational and a great read. I bet a blog or even podcast would be very cool for you guys. Of course I have no clue what kind of market there is for stuff like that. But you guys teach me more than the people on CNBC and stuff do. I think they have some great stuff in the morning but the more perspective the better as I'm continually trying to learn more and more how markets work.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 10:35 AM) What was his date of being placed on the DL? I don't think that it has even been 15 days yet. He was placed on the DL on August 13th so he should be good to go. Sox might stall though because having both him and Wise on the DL will enable the club to have two more players eligible for the post-season roster.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 10:33 AM) Rock, How do you explain 6 consecutive seasons of terrible hitting in April and August? April should be easily explained. It is the coldest month of the year and at the start of the major league season pitchers are typically a little ahead of the hitters (which is weird, because hitters are ahead of pitchers at the beginning of spring training). Plus the team happens to have a few hitters that are notorious slow starters.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 10:30 AM) Where the hell is Getz?!? Is he on the 60 day disabled list? Seems like he's been gone forever. I wouldn't be shocked if he's back up here any day now. He began his rehab assignment yesterday in Charlotte and I figure it'll only take him a couple days down there before he's ready. He's hitless in his first two games in Charlotte though.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 08:29 AM) Beckham is in a slump and didn't look good at the late at all. Time to send him down for more seasoning Good job by CQ, PK and JT but I was troubled by the bulpen effort again. Dotel imploded and Jenks gave up the homer in the 9th to the first batter mind you that he faced. Good thing it wasn't another 2-2 game. The Sox need Getz back so he can get a start or two at 2B with Nix playing 3B and giving Beckham about two full days to rest. He's hitting that wall and it should be expected given that he's never played this many games in his professional career.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 07:55 AM) 1. "other less biased media outlets"? Than WSJ and Crain's? WTF? 2. The housing market has all the signs of a dead cat, because it has all the signs of hitting a floor. That's why everything we're seeing now is positive. There will probably be one more dip, or a leveling, into early next year, as the tax incentives wear off, but that's expected and not a bad thing at all. The only two things that are really worriesome for the next year or two in housing are increased unemployment (which we'll probably see at least a little bit of), and the looming inflation issue's effects on mortgage rates. And those are definitely big. But I think the overall strength is building - and we'd likely see a slow, choppy rise over the next few years. Downticks as rates go up and employment goes down, upticks when employment goes up again. 3. As for history bearing you out about unemployment, that is only partially true. Its always the laggard. Economic growth needs people to have jobs, but typically the growth starts around when unemployment tops, not after. Then they move in concert. That's why the market has priced in some spiky growth next 2 quarters, but sustained, more predictable growth next year. Inflation is the scary monster next year, IMO. That is the biggest X factor in how quickly we recover, or if we dip deeply again, in 2010. In terms of the housing market, I think the biggest reason we are seeing numbers increase a bit is a, because it was down for such an extended period of time, but also B because the supply is actually very very low (shockingly low). Now I'm basing the above on my market and as we all know, real estate differs across the country pretty significantly, but no one got hit much harder than SoCal during the housing and mortgage bubble (we not only had inflated housing prices crash and a large % of the new wave of financing, but we were also home to the corporate headquarters of most of those lenders) and right now prices have went up a bit the past few months (during summer which is the typical peak season for real estate). The problem is, when you look out there you'll see that the only things on the market (and I'm talking about 80% and higher are short sales and REO's). There are about 20% equity sellers (and I actually think I'm exaggerating as there are far less than that). Short sales are pretty much non-existent as they are very very difficult to get closed so really the only available homes are REO's and the ocassional equity seller and because of this people sitting out there looking to buy a home (ie, the young and new families trying to take advantage of the first semi-affordable market in our young adult lives). So Bottom line, Mike is completely on par in saying that this housing rebound is anything other than a minor blip. Is stuff going to dive bomb, absolutely not, but there is enough out there that will prevent any true recovery for a lot longer (I do think it is pretty safe to buy, if not a great time to buy if you can, but that time window should be around for another couple years, at least in my area).

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 28, 2009 -> 07:45 AM) I don't buy the modern bias anymore. It wasn't too long ago that people believed that the market has gotten so effecient at pricing in information, that a negative PE could be interpreted as a good thing. 10 years later over 90% of the dotcoms are busts or buyouts. I still believe in history and understanding what the numbers are telling you, and why they are saying what they are. The housing market has all of the signs of a deadcat bounce. Unemployment is still rising, as is the hidden unemployment of people who either have been taken off of the official roles because they have exhausted their benefits, or have taken much less paying/part time work out of desparation. The other big factor in homebuying is ease of credit, and that hasn't really changed that much in the last 10 months or so either. Also remember that employment lags confidence in the system by 6-12 months, and foreclosures also lag unemployment by about the same margin. There is still a large chunk of supply that hasn't come onto the housing market, not to mention, much like the hidden auto demand, there is also the hidden housing supply of people who want to sell their houses, but feel that they can't for one reason or another (worried about losing job, upside down on loan, houses not selling in area so not trying, etc). Even if hiring really did take off today, it would be a year to two years before you could really point to a true housing recovery. More numbers I have seen bantered around as proof are the durable goods and GDP revisions... This is pretty simple stuff to explain away as well. The two biggest components in durable goods are airplanes and autos. Autos numbers being reported are in the midst of the cash for clunkers bounce. Once you remove auto numbers from durable goods, that number becomes near zero growth. That same growth is also responsible for a good chunk of GDP growth. Remember, no one seemed to be able to forecast how successful this program would be, which means it wasn't factored in as "expected" in any of the growth figures for Q3. Now moving on to Q4 you have removed pretty much all automotive demand from this system, both pent up demand and the future demand from people who realized that this was the best deal they were going to ever see, so they moved and took delivery sooner than they probably would have. As for other durables, people who are employed and able to buy are also still scared of losing their jobs, as unemployment is still increasing. If you are scared of losing your job, you aren't going to run out and spend savings money to buy a new fridge or TV unless you have to do so. The proof here is that savings rates in the US are still at levels we haven't seen in decades, and again, even the slight dip in the number can be explained by the artificial demand of cash for clunkers spending. I also saw your point about articles of people investing in the stock market, but I am still reading articles about people who are afraid to invest in the same market, in other, less market biased media outlets. The Sunday Tribune just had one. Finally I really believe that we have to see unemployment take a real turn before I will believe actual growth is coming. The fundementals of the markets have to change, and not just by artificial government means. For all of those auto sales, does anyone think any jobs are going to be saved? That is the question we should be asking. Until jobs come back for real (not just accounting tricks brought on by people who can't file for benefits anymore, or are working part time/at a fraction of former salaries.) we aren't going to sustain anything. History bears this out, not just me. Mike I like the above. Very good and informative post. I think you should blog on the economy!!!

Allen stroked that HR last night and did have 4 RBI but I think Ozzie ball did a great job summing up what you can project his offensive numbers to be and they aren't that special. Pena has the chance to be an upper echelon reliever and he has been over one season in his career. Will he do it again, I don't freaking know, but 1st baseman that put up those sort of numbers aren't as valuable as we think they are (in terms of trade). I didn't like trading Allen cause he might do better than Ozzie projected but I think in general Ozzie's projections in the article look fairly accurate and realistic. I wish BA the best of luck, but I'm not going to write off Tony Pena just yet.

Well, I spose it stays as is

Freaking sweet to see the Sox get a win. I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Fields get a start or two and give Beckham a bit of a breather. Now its time to let that win be the start of something bigger.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Aug 27, 2009 -> 12:06 PM) Why do people keep mentioning PK being gone? He's under contract. I think he's one of the leaders and he tends to play tight so if Kenny wanted to make a change that is where you'd probably start. AJ won't be the guy.