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QUOTE (whitesoxfan101 @ Feb 21, 2009 -> 06:44 PM) Garland wasn't even the best starter on the White Sox in 2005. Buehrle was better and I think he finished ahead of Garland in Cy voting too. The funny thing is Colon and Garland had nearly identical numbers that season aside from Colon's superior K rate and yet when the Cy Young voting results are released Colon gets 118 points and Garland 1. And yes Buehrle was better than Garland that season and finished with 5 ponts in Cy Young voting.

QUOTE (Flash Tizzle @ Feb 21, 2009 -> 05:54 PM) Not Spacey. I don't believe he's a bad actor, like Paul Walker, I just can't stand watching him. I'm tired of him playing the "arrogant, yet softspoken father/brother/criminal with a heart of gold who has deep secrets" character. Don't you have an actor that everyone recognizes as great yet you just can't follow? Sean Penn. He's a great actor and State of Grace is one of my all time favorites (largely because of the great Gary Oldman but Penn too) but I just can't stomach him. I know it sounds real juvenile but I think it's his face. It's kind of like Depp in Donnie Brasco where he just looked too damn young for the role even if he was 34 at the time or DeCaprio in The Departed, a lot people just can't take him seriously as a toughguy, that's how I am with Penn. For whatever reason I just can't take him seriously and given the nature of the vast majority of his roles that's a serious issue.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2009 -> 05:29 PM) For a guy who on Sept. 14 2007 was hitting .228 with a .289 OBP, he got a lot of love last year. Everyone wanted Crede gone. I think even Crede's biggest fans realize it was time for the White Sox to move on. I don't think Fields is better. Hopefully Viciedo is. Well lucky for Josh the season doesn't end in mid-September. And that .229/.283/.433/.716 line Josh had through September 14th as a 24 year old (before finishing the season with a 1.295 OPS over his final 56 PA) isn't far off from the .239/.299/.418/.717 line Crede put up as a 26 year old. Oh if only the season lasted from the beginning of June to mid September the .296/.337/.428/.765 line Brian put up over that exact same span in '06 would have earned him the starting gig in '07 and we never would have had to see Darin Erstad in a White Sox uniform.

QUOTE (WilliamTell @ Feb 21, 2009 -> 02:50 PM) I'd be surprised if he starts 25 games this year with the shape he's in. Eh, he was that same shape when he threw 222 IP and stole the Cy Young from Johan in '05.

QUOTE (qwerty @ Feb 21, 2009 -> 02:44 PM) Say a fictional player has 5 at-bats throughout a game and does the following, strikeout, ground into double play, strikeout, strikeout, single to knock in the game winning run. Pretty impressive to knock in that game winning run right? What i forgot to mention is this player also stranded 7 runners on base, with a chance to either tie or put his time ahead each and every time he came up to the plate. People that preach clutch fail to realize that games can be won and lost just as easily in the middle of a game and even at times in the very first inning. Short term memory would suggest the ''clutch'' factor. I personally do not fall for it. While i would be grateful for the hit a free pass would not be handed out like candy. It's the opposite of the "Thome factor". All those runs he drives in for the first 8/9 of the game mean little because once the 9th roles around all he's good for is a K or a walk. (unless the game is being played in Pittsburgh)

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2009 -> 02:29 PM) I don't know. When Fields was supposedly awesome, his OBP was .308. .303 for his career. Hey matching Crede's career number in his rookie season can only be a good thing. If he could match his 2007 batting average while improving upon his 8.6% walk rate from that season he's going to be a very valuable player.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2009 -> 02:15 PM) Fields' PECOTA numbers has him hitting .236 with 20 homers in 476 AB. If Crede did that, he would be horrible.. We aren't even talking defense. Joe hit .248 last year and .239 in 2004 so if he somehow managed to get 476 AB .236 wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility. We're comparing Fields to a hitter with a .306 career OBP and 5.8% (4.6% in 2006) walk rate, it shouldn't be too hard for Josh to top that.

I'm not even looking for some complex mathematical formula, just something better than "I watch all the games and this is what my memory tells me", guess what? Memories are not infallible, in fact they often lie, they're swayed by public opinion and a desire to remember the good moments. It's the reason why we have people claiming that Mike MacDougal was demoted because he allowed an inordinate number of inherited runners to score when in actuality he stranded all of them or why people seem to think Octavio Dotel was horrible last season or that he crumbled more often than not in big situations when that's just not the case. I'm just looking for a little objectivity but I don't think that's possible with a subject such as this.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Feb 21, 2009 -> 01:28 PM) I love this post. It's an excellent example of the presumption that there is a statistical value for every facet of the game; or even more important, that this value is definite and therefore its significance cannot be called into question. And I'm not asking this rhetorically, but who are these very smart baseball people who say there is no such thing as a "clutch" hitter? Are they former players/managers/scouts, people with an intuition for the game, people who don't rely solely on a mathematical figure to evaluate a player's worth? Is it really surprising that Sox fans and their circle are the only ones who truly appreciated Crede's value in crucial moments of a game, given the overall lack of scrutiny (both positive and negative) that the 2nd team in Chicago receives? I don't think there's any sort of distortion going on here, no myths are being perpetuated. In the last four years, in a key moment late in a game, who are the guys you want to see up at the plate? Crede and Dye are at the top of my list. I happen to agree with you that our bullpen should be able to handle Crede; I also dread having to face him late in the game in a key situation, say with runners in scoring position and the Sox clinging to a small lead. And I don't think I am deluding myself, or that this dread is unfounded. They're the people who are running baseball teams, the people who make millions just to hold the title of adviser or consultant. They're people like Dayton Moore, Theo Epstein or Jack Zduriencik, the sort of baseball minds that teams are hiring to construct their organizations these days. Despite not playing or managing at the major league level they're winning championships or like the Rays coming damn close and threatening to stick around for a while. It's the reason why teams are hiring 35 year old Harvard grads to run their organizations and moving away from the crusty old baseball guy.

QUOTE (Texsox @ Feb 21, 2009 -> 01:47 PM) I am not a medical Doctor, so I cannot make claims about his back. We'll see. It doesn't suit his hitting style. The important question is thus, are the Sox better or worse off at 3B? Someone show me the statistical proof that 3B will be better. Not having to play Juan Uribe or Andy Gonzalez at the position for 60+ games will be nice. Pretty much all projections have Josh Fields putting up equal or better numbers than Joe next season over more ABs, I know this means nothing to you but it is the case.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Feb 21, 2009 -> 05:50 AM) Did Joe Crede steal your GF or something? I notice that anytime anybody attempts to give him even a shred of credit you come swooping in with all this Bills James, Sabermetrics, Bible awards, zone rating, ect in an all out attempt to dismiss him as some bottom-tier third baseman who did nothing for the franchise save October, 2005. You're asking for proof of Crede's clutchness? Are you serious? A Sox fan? Who gives a s*** if Crede doesn't make some Bill James list. Do you want a list of games from 2004, '05 and '06 in which Crede saved our asses? I expect somebody from the east coast to have no clue about anything not Yankees/Redsox, but c'mon now. Am I glad Crede is gone? Yes. He's too much of an injury risk and is no longer a fit with this franchise. That's fine. But don't try and discredit all the good that he did here when healthy with this endless barrage of new-aged statistical formulas (i.e. he's not good if Bill James doesn't say so) that are flawed to begin with. Ain't nothin' like actually watching the games. Bill James be damned. Sure, that would be nice, there have been many attempts to quantify exactly what that and none of them favor Mr. Crede but I know they're flawed and mean nothing even though you probably have no idea how any of it works. I know, I know, I'm not a Sox fan, you got me. And yes those evil east coast nerds actually sqew the numbers to make players on mid-west teams look bad all those f***ers care about is the SAWX! Lucky for Mike Sweeney and Geoff Jenkins (2 names that tend to come up) they spent their entire careers on the east coast so the evil Bill James was able to get a good look at them. And I never said he did nothing for the f***ing franchise or that he's a bottom tier 3B, that's you trying to discredit me via hyperbole. He is not one of the best players in the game at his position, he's never been the best defensive 3B in his league (though he's been close, as I've said) and I refuse to believe he comes through in an inordinate number of "clutch" situations just because he had a reputation for doing so, that's how playes like Derek Jeter and Michael Young win gold gloves or Brandon Webb nearly steals a Cy Young from Tim Lincecum or Johan Santana. Just because you don't believe in sabermetrics (or even basic statistics I suppose) doesn't mean you have to questin my fandom. The entire point of sabermetrics and the sabr movement is objectively anylize the game of baseball, believe it or not they're not out to destroy all playes outside the east coast they're just trying to answer the baseball questions that people have ignored from the game's inception. I'm just looking for a little non-anectdotal evidence, believe it or not no matter how many games you watch or how good your memory is there is no way for you to recall exactly how a player performs in a given situation, especially one as objective as "clutch" you're gonna tend to remember the times he came through big and forget the failures especially when he was a key member of a Championship team and performed as well in the postseason as he did. I didn't expect anyone to even try to answer my question, with someone as beloved as Joe you're better off not questioning his play there's just far too much emotion involved. I guess that's to be expected considering the White Sox's inability to fill that position for much of their history.

Yep, basically what I expected. Obviously I'm just trying to look smart or I hate Joe Crede or something.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 21, 2009 -> 03:43 AM) Even battling back issues, Crede's third base defense is among the game's best. Last year he saved 13 more bases than the average third baseman despite missing a third of the season. Where do they get this crap (mlbtraderumors, although I'm sure it was from another silly defensive metric)??? Seriously, there's no neat/simple/compact way to objectify defense, zone ratings, whatever. Crede was a below average defensive 3B for most of last season. I don't care what they say. Maybe because they remember him from 2005, they watch, I don't know, Josh Fields, and assume that every ball getting by Fields would have been stopped/prevented by Crede. I'm more worried about Juan Cruz in Minnesota as their RH set-up guy than I am Crede replacing Buscher/Harris at 3B. They probably used RngR or Range Runs. It doesn't make a lot of sense because the guy at MLBTR didn't go all the way. He gives the number of runs Crede supposedly saved (RngR) but not the number he allowed thanks to his 20 errors (ErrR). Subtract ErrR from RngR and you have UZR or his Ultimate Zone Rating which came out to 9.4 runs saved if you extrapolate it out to a 150 game season. Problem is, ErrR fails to take into account the 10 or so balls he missplayed that should have been ruled errors but weren't because the official scorers f***ing suck.

QUOTE (joesaiditstrue @ Feb 21, 2009 -> 02:11 AM) Jermaine was interviewed in the locker room yesterday Says he wants to finish his career in Chicago I hope we can sign him to DH next year, he's my favorite player on the team and he seems to be very emotionally attached to the white sox organization Hopefully we can work out a deal in the 2009-2010 offseason but I'm not holding my breath No thanks, Jermaine is an awful defensive player, I'd look to fill the role with a David Eckstein or Nick Punto type. Someone who can slap at the ball and make lots of outs.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Feb 21, 2009 -> 02:05 AM) Well, that guarantees us a s***ty season versus Minnesota again. He is a fricking clutch hitter. He will abuse our staff, especially our pen. What a joke. We got to face him 19 times? f***. Can you prove this? I'll take any form of statistical proof, any. I'll even take splits stats even if they are unreliable. It's funny because a lot of very smart baseball people are of the belief that there is no such thing as a "clutch" hitter, just good hitters who do good things in big situations because they're good but even when a Sabermetrician like Bill James or Nate Silver attempts to quantify "clutch hitting" Joe Crede's name NEVER comes up. I've seen Mike Sweeney (the perpetually injured) and Chipper Jones (the great) and even Geoff Jenkins (the average) but never Joe Crede. The only people who seem to believe that he's anything more than a mediocre offensive player are Sox fans and Hawk but none of these people ever bother to back up this belief, just perpetuate it as fact. I've mentioned this in the past and no one has ever bothered to acknowledge it, could it be that the man has just come through in a few very memorable "clutch" situations and this has berthed an undeserved reputation? (it would hardly be the first time) Oh and his 0.5 BB/K and .267/.325/.435/.760 career line against relief pitching hardly scares me, Linebrink and Dotel will handle him just fine. Yeah, I know it's blasphemy but I'm not fearing the crippled, pull hitting, popup machine. Just looking now, Bill James has him down for 302 AB, 14 HR, 0.5 BB/K, .255/.312/.447/.759 next year. Look out.

Cook didn't even get an invite to spring training so he'll be in minor league camp and only play with the big boys during split squads and at the end of games after players have been optioned down and rosters are a little thin. He has pretty much no shot at a roster spot.

Bill James has Ryan Dempster putting up a 3.89 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 1.84 K/BB this season. That compared to the 2.96, 1.21 and 2.46 he put up last year.

QUOTE (fathom @ Feb 20, 2009 -> 06:07 PM) The Twinkie Dome is a terrible place for Crede to hit. It's deep to left and left center, and caters to players who can drive the ball to right field. As the stats show, Crede's one of the worst in baseball with regards to opposite field power. I totally forgot about that too. Joe Crede has 125 career HR 90% of which were hit to left field. He's hit 8 to CF and 4 to RF in his career. He pulled every one of his 21 HR over the past 2 seasons.

QUOTE (santo=dorf @ Feb 20, 2009 -> 05:34 PM) Please shut up about it. We didn't ofer arbitration so I believe we can't negoiate with him until May. Yeah, good point. Even if KW wanted to waste $5M+ Crede's off limits until May.

QUOTE (SoxAce @ Feb 20, 2009 -> 05:24 PM) Brace yourselves sox fans. Joe Crede will be a Minnesota Twin so get start getting used to it. It's not a great fit for Joe. Staying in the American League is not going to help, especially when he received an offer from an NL club, going down a level could have given his numbers a nice bump. Playing half his games on concrete is not going to help his chronic debilitating back problems, only increase the likelihood that he has his 3rd straight season with under 100 GP. He's a big time flyball hitter, nearly 70% of his batted balls end up in the air so he won't be taking advantage of the Metrodome's #1 comodity, it's incredibly fast infield.

QUOTE (Melissa1334 @ Feb 20, 2009 -> 05:22 PM) its crazy, the economy. who would have thought that had we wanted to sign abreu(5mil),hudson(3.4), and pudge(1mil or less), it would have cost us barely 10 mil for all 3 lol Well Pudge is hardly surprising, there's an increasing belief throughout the league that he's just about done, his time with the Yankees last year was just embarrassing. Add in his limitations at the catcher position and reputation for being a poor influence in the clubhouse (he was HATED in that Tigers locker room) and it's hardly a surprise that no one wants him.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Feb 20, 2009 -> 05:06 PM) Let's sign Crede before the Twings or Giants get him Yeah, I agree. Lets throw 6 or 7 million dollars that we don't have at a mediocre, injury prone player that we don't need. Now THAT is solid baseball logic.

The Sox have 13 important players with 3+ years of service under team control for next season, if they want to keep them all around it'll cost them somewhere between $65M and $70M.

Mr. Flowers

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 20, 2009 -> 02:14 PM) Every dog has its day. OC got used and abused by the Dodgers to entice Hudson to sign. I think that leaves Oakland and its $5 million offer, which is probably shrinking as I type. He supposedly is looking for $1 more than Renteria for 2009. He'll need to buy a lottery ticket. He gets at least twice that if he just accepts arbitration. What a colossal mistake that was.