QUOTE(Steve9347 @ Sep 22, 2006 -> 08:58 AM)
then he'd be wrong. a 3.77 era and a 1.40 whip in the NL would equal death in the AL...
What a complete and accurate analysis you've provided us with. Have you at all considered Willis' prior stats against the American League? Or the fact that a pitcher with a delivery as decieving as his can torment a group of hitters who have rarely if ever seen it for sometimes more than an entire season?
Willis clearly is dominant against left-handed batters. In the AL Central, three out of our four opponents most dominant offensive threats are left-handed batters. Cleveland with Hafner and Sizemore, Minnesota with Mauer and Morneau, KC with Teahen and Dejesus (Alex Gordon bats left-handed too by the way). I suppose the Tigers could give him some troubles, but you could schedule him around them as well as possible.
You cannot just lower a pitcher's stats from the NL by a certain percentage and claim that's what they will look like should he switch over to the American Leauge. There are so many factors to take into consideration. Maybe some would say his NL numbers are even more inflated by pitching in the deep NL East parks. I'd bet against that somewhat due to his high career G/F ratios. I think Willis would not only survive the AL but probably excel for a couple seasons, especially in the AL Central. I really don't see the pieces matching up though for a trade to bring him here next season.