QUOTE (chw42 @ Aug 13, 2010 -> 11:16 AM)
Luck is just another word for randomness. And in statistics, there is a lot of randomness, as is there in baseball.
Tom Tango posted something about luck the other day. If all teams had equal talent and played a 162 game season, not all of them would be .500. You'd have 10 that are above .500. 10 around .500. 10 under .500. If they played a million times, all of them would be exactly .500, of course.
Basically, baseball is 60% skill, 40% luck/randomness.
Ok you lost me on that last statement. These are very highly skilled athletes. Is it 40% luck when a fast man can steal a base ? Is it 40% luck when that same fast man who has spent many hours practicing can run down a shot in the gap ? Is it 40% luck that a player hits .300 for his whole career ? To attribute 40% luck to the best baseball players in the world seems to trivialize the time spend honing their craft. The cream rises to the top in any specialized skill and it's not through luck . It's through constant repetition, God given talent and dedication.