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Glad to see he was elected. Really the 1st true superstar the Sox had in my lifetime , then Albert Bell and Frank Thomas . That's been it as far as position players go arguably. There's been other HOF guys like Baines but he never put up a monster type season maybe 1984 but career high 29 HRs & 13th in MVP voting. Jermaine Dye in 2006 was pretty elite and had a really good career with the Sox.

Thread title change anyone to say Allen is now a Hall of Famer please ?

I dont understand your point. My point was prospects get extended all the time, not just Sox prospects ,so how it turned out for the examples I used doesn't even matter. Crochet is the most valuable tradable pitcher on the market .His peripherals are off the charts. He has 2 yrs left where a bad injury could be extremely costly to him. He may want to signn an extension right away to minimize that risk same as he did at the trade deadline. That feasible isn't it ? Even if you don't like the idea of giving a team a 48 hr window to sign him to an extension, how much surplus value is it worth to be the team that has 1st shot at resigning him ? He a proven major League pitcher at the top of his game and you have him for 2 years. What's that worth now $30M-$40M per year ? I'll guess his surplus value is close to $100M Just for the 2 years and the chance to extend him .Exclusive negotiation rights. How do they calculate surplus or future value for prospects with full service time ranked anywhere from 1 to 100 and beyond ? What is proven value of a star pitcher worth per year over an unproven position prospect ? In the past they've calculated based on the prospects' grade like 45, 50 FV . I'm just trying to establish everyone's value to justify saying we deserve a haul even with these teams position player top prospects hugging. It makes it so much harder to evaluate trades given the huge disparity among fans on the Cease trade . The most vocal are always the ones who are unhappiest with it and yell "Getz better get a haul this time , he didn't get enough for Cease." Everyone wants a haul but when I say damn right he's worth a haul people want to argue that the chance to extend him, be it right away or a year from now , isnt worth as much as I think it is. Of course if you wait a year he may decide " f*** you , you didn't want to extend me right away and I just pitched great for you so I'll just bet on myself now that I successfully completed another year and made myself possibly $100M more valuable by knocking off 50% of the time before I become a free agent. If I stay healthy 1 more year and pitch great again I might get $500M but hey you couldve had me an extra year but you blew it" . There's still plenty of doubt out there about Crochet because of his health history and how he'll do the year after pitching the most innings he ever had. These teams always find a reason to say you don't deserve more. Cease was healthy but oh no he had a down year which effectively lowered his value. Crochet was as close as you can get to a stud for a guy who pitched way more innings than he ever had before and he had no health problems whatsoever. Everyone was screaming about shutting him down once he got knocked around a bit in August. But he came back very strong in September. I'd be surprised if he's traded at the Winter Meetings. Getz is asking for a haul like our fans want but these other teams all scream it's too much , we aren't giving up our top prospects. If everything goes right for Crochet he could be the 1st $500M starting pitcher .If a lot goes wrong he could be like Rodon was when he signed for $3M .

Interesting way to say you aren't blaming Getz because of the position prospect hugging without saying it.

TB signed Glasnow to a $25M 1 yr contract then traded him and the trade was contigent on being extended by the Dodgers. Glasnow hadn't ever put up more than 120 inning. Crochet pitched 146 in his 1st year of starting. Dodgers extended Glasnow 5 more years. Why would a team give up more when they don't have to ? Because he could be at the top of your rotation leading you to multiple World Series wins. Its the same reason why you sign free agents only Crochet would still be a relative bargain. All it takes is 1 team. The Orioles aren't any better off having had Burns for a year. The longer you have elite talent the longer your window. Teams extend and buy out arbitration years all the time .The Sox did it with Moncada , Eloy and Robert didn't they ?

I think I explained all already in detail in previous posts. Do you think he can do 2 years of elite quality starting pitching and stay healthy standing on his head ? There's a huge downside risk that could be the difference between making $10M for 2 years and $200M or more. God forbid he bets on himself and he gets so injured that's he's never the same.Common sense would say sign an extension asap while youre at the top of your game but leave an out for you to make more. if everything goes right for 3 years youre into huge money. If everything goes wrong you're talking out of baseball or always injured and chasing money. You just can't slough off 2 years of pitching as if there's no risk involved. All he has to do is sign a 1 year extension and do whatever with opt outs if he wants more years. He could probably get the 2 remaining arb years bought out and the extra year and get $60M easy. It's just a difference of 1 year. Why gamble with the 1st 2 years when you can get paid for them plus another year. Even if you do blow your arm out at least you get $60M instead of $10M. These are all just hypothetical dollar guesses. He would still be a FA at 28 with $60M already banked with a huge contract waiting. All you're doing is mitigating the risk and banking an extra $50M for 1 more year of servitude. I have no idea why he wouldn't want to do this. He's not hurting his big money chances at all. Seems like a no brainier to me. Explain to me how it costs him money ?

Who's to say it can't happen though ? Crochet continuing to stay healthy and reaching his full potential would be like having prime Sale. You could risk losing that or have the choice of keeping him . Even if you get him for just an extra year isn't it worth it to take a risk ? There's a number of different ways an extension could work. Why should Getz just give that opportunity to a team for nothing ? If the team that gets Crochet wants to wait a year to see how he pitches in 2025 they're then risking Crochet pitching very well and becoming even more expensive. It's much easier then for Crochet to say I'll take my chances and bet on myself for 1 year rather than 2 years. It cuts his risk in half .

If you were trading for Crochet wouldn't you want him for more than 2 years if he was willing to sign a reasonably priced extension if only for another year guaranteed then another couple years but with opt outs. While many players take the stance of betting on themselves Crochet and his agent have to know you weigh the risk of pitching for 2 more years for maybe $10M and ending up with less future $ if you get hurt or underperform vs signing for close to $100M to get 10 x as much while getting opt outs to possibly make $200M+ best case scenario. Worst case scenario is saying I'll take the risk I'm a healthy great pitcher for 2 more years and then youre not and you end up getting a bare minimum pension. Why not get paid $20-25M per year for the next 3 years if you can get it then opt out if you live up to the hype and then get a $200M contract. It's a lot better than getting $10M for 2 years of service time while risking all your future paychecks. If he does this right and becomes elite he could amass over $300M.

I just wrote a post a couple days ago saying give anyone with good prospcts they're willing to part with 48 Hrs to work out an extension which would then net the Sox a better trade package in return. Just have to have a trade almost finished with a prospect to be added if they can extent him. If not then onto the next team.

Exactly. I think I said you could trade Davis Martin next because of his age if he can stay healthy and put up some good peripherals. He'd be right in a good age for starting pitching peak years .

Funny how everyone wants JR to die while he's like the black plague spreading disease and death to his franchise and it's fanbase. There's a reason why the Sox wear black.

I don't think there's any one way of thinking ,when u start from rock bottom, to get players for a window. We don't know when there will be a window.What kind of window ? Don't you need enough talent to get to 75 wins before you get to 85 or 95 ? Right now the Sox are 34 wins away from even 75 wins. They are not going to be able to amass enough prospect talent or even current young MLB talent to have any shot at the playoffs any time soon at the rate JR is clutching the purse strings. This going to be a patch work quilt. Get enough talent to keep the fans going to see them play so JR spends a little more while you pray that Getz can do what no other GM has done for a long time ands develop prospects in our system while signing some successful international players and drafting well and slowly build up the depth in the system . Best case scenario is the pitching becomes very good , a couple of prospects work out. Scout, develop, trade,draft, sign rinse and repeat and see if u can become Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay didn't even start this barren and we got people talking about a window as if you know when it's going to be and who will be a part of it. Window ?? I feel like Jim Mora ranting "don't talk to me about playoffs" when his team sucked so bad in a game he had more concern just about winning the next game than the playoffs. This is where we are .We're barely crawling .We haven't even got close to baby steps yet. And that baby will stumble and fall many times. Just amass as much talent as possible at SS . If they are fast and powerful and athletic they can be moved. The next window is climbing out of this pit with the owner of the pit still here laughing at us for still caring about it to have opinions about the most direct path to just being average instead of putrid.

Part of my childhood died. RIP Beltin' Bill. There he is with Nancy Faust (with her Sandy Duncan doo) and Wilbur Wood.

I'm not sure I'd make it sound easy to give him an extention or if you can describe such a thing as below market value. The 2 years he has left in arbitration do lessen his value if he were to sign an extension right away. After all he does have an injury history and also has less than a years worth of full time starting pitching. On his side of course is that he does seem primed to be a 180+ innings elite starting pitcher going forward. He waits to sign he could have a much bigger contract in a year if he puts up another healthy year of elite pitching.If he gets hurt in 2025 he really hurts his value. After all there also has to be concern about how hell bounce back from his 2024 innings load. If he wants to prioritize instant security as a hedge against injury in his next 2 years this could work in the Sox favor. I wouldn't call it less than market value. There's just things to consider about the future that could hurt him or really make him very very rich. I think signing right away and getting opt outs can be a reasonable deal for all sides involved.

I agree. I'm not so concerned about who we trade with and who we get. The return has to be maximized and there are ways to do that. You talk to Crochet's camp. You tell them we want to maximize what we get back for him. Would you be ok with us giving a team a 48 hr window to reach a contract extension with Garrett which would get us better prospects if a team knows they have him for longer than 2 years. The longer the extension the better our return . He might be willing to go 3 years with opt up after 2027 or even 4 or 5 years with opt outs in every year after the 3rd year. Well give you a list of teams who would be willing to do this and you can talk to them all . 3 teams you get 72 hours to narrow it down to the best offer or tell us you can't reach an agreement. The Sox should already have some idea what Crochet wants but they'll have to be sure to float that idea to interested teams.

Magdaleno looks exceptional among the relievers and Webb as a starter seems like a Drew Thorpe type. Ward among the hitters to replace Sheets seems to hit RHP really well. But PCL numbers. Otherwise I might just go with the 27 yr. old Crim since he just seems lke the most well rounded hitter.

There's been a lot smoke around Red Sox. A real lot but your guess is as good as mine.

Congrats on earning your new badge. You make good points as does your opponent. Of course the point is you have to try to maximize future value by trying to get players that can maximize their worth with multiple tools at the most valuable positions. On the other hand we can make arguments against any player but the Sox aren't exactly in a position to turn down top prospects from any organization. The teams that truly want Crochet and value current success against future unknowns will step up. Prospects for the most part are fools gold or usually require time to reach their potential if they ever do. If the Red Sox are the frontrunners for Soto their next quest could be Crochet if they envision him as the new Sale. They'll cling to certain prospects like they did with Devers but they will have to part with some high quality position talent to land Crochet unless they prefer spending $800M+ this off-season.

1981 was the 1st full year I was in LA county. Fernandomania was cool.RIP Fernando.

The Prodigal Son

Of course but you're hoping to find someone young enough with power to break out whcan field adequately. He might be in Sheets territory as a fielder.

I agree. It's silly talk to say Getz asking prices are too high.Thats just buying into the rich or opposing side narrative that top position prospects are gold. It may not be deliberate collusion but all of a sudden top 50 prospects weren't being moved recently . All we hear is it's crazy talk to think well get anyone in the top 20. Getz is already severely limited by the "screw you JR " anti-tanking new draft rules. It's no coincidence that teams started prospect hugging shortly after the league crippled cheap owners/ poor teams ability to get good returns in trades for star players with limited control by limiting their ability to draft where they should according to record. Baseball already was the hardest sport to project how a prospect will develop. High picks give you a better shot but it's no panacea. There is no reason to try to screw bad teams. The bad teams like the Sox constantly screw themselves over because they cheap out on scouting and player development. It didn't help the Sox that much getting Moncada, Jimenez, Kopech, Giolito, Lopez, Cease ,Collins, Vaughn, Madrigal , Crochet and Robert.Top guys bust more often than they turn into stars for multiple years. Everyone gets enamored with the upside but the downside is a bust. It's no wonder a 3 WAR guy like Wilyer Abreu looks attractive when our last rebuild couldn't produce a single guy worth 15 WAR over a 5 year period or even a 12 WAR over a 4 year period. You can check me on this. Im just guessing. The league may pretend they want parity but what they really want is a Dodgers - Yankees World Series every year. Revenue sharing is just a way to pretend to even things up a little bit. It does nothing to help the Sox . Not only do we have JR but now the league has empowered the rich teams even more in the draft and as a result in trades too for rebuilding teams. Screwed on all sides to dig out of this mess created by JR . Getz doesn't stand a chance. He's doing what he can to hire the right people and playing the long game so maybe any prospects stand a better chance of succeeding than the last bunch did but JR will die eventually and more chaos will ensue.

On the other hand accumulation of talent is not just for playoff teams. You need talent to get to 60, 70 ,80 wins too. The more talent you have the more you can do with it. Many are talking about a 10 year rebuild . If Getz has any kind of vision it might have more to do with being more like Tampa Bay and they are always trying to go from average to above average , playoff team by finding a balance between developing youth and trading it away at the right time and continuing to win.Depth of talent has to come 1st and that only happens once you fix scouting and player development domestically and internationally. Then your GM has to trust his talent evaluators in trades. I think most GMs scamble to gather info from their guys once a team shows interest in your players .A good infrastructure can provide that info efficiently and identify players of interest from all levels of any system.

I call a smart hitter someone who combines their physical gifts , with knowledge of hitting ,being good at recognizing pitch sequences, hitting in various counts, game preparedness like knowing the pitchers repertoire and tendencies. Eyesight is very important in recognizing spin and processing that info in fractions of seconds to decide the swing path to make the ball hit the sweet spot and drive it. It's all done so quickly on every pitch and requires quick reflexes. and perhaps a quicker mind. Even then you have to gain experience and deal with your failures most at bats. Imagine all the different ways hitters hold a bat ,all the different stances and swing mechanisms strides, toe tap. Ttsr can literally make millions of combined changes to how he swings the bat. For example where you hold your hands .It can be anywhere from waist high to above your head. Add that to all the ways to tilt the bat, stride . Then their are proper hitting mechanics. Finding the right combo of things to do that unlocks you to be better is like finding a needle in a haystack for some and comes more naturally to others. Personally I'd give prospects every eye test under the sun to test depth perception, color blindness, peripheral vision. Since livh colored eyes are more sensitive to light Id see if sunglasses are ever a for different colored eyes or if their are better sunglasses for artificial light like for night games. It's said Ted Williams had 20/10 vision. But that's the extent most of us ever hear about vision. Test seems like an extremely important thing to do every year to every player.Slight worsening of vision could lead to bad results for hitters just as improved vision in sunlight and artificial light may improve hitting. Hitting a baseball well is like sophisticated targetting systems in the military. It all starts with how well you see the moving target.

I've consistently said they wouldn't do it too. I'm just saying if they don't really care about paying Vaughn $6M then they better not try to then attach Benintendi to Crochet or Robert. Others seem to think it's a real possibility because of rumors they tried to do it before. Trying to draw a correlation that if the are willing to pay Vaughn they should be willing to keep Benintendi out of a pure misery move like attaching him to Robert or Crochet for those who think it's a real possibility.