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Isn't the catch group not large enough because most of the other catches are fairly routine ? I'm assuming you are talking about the samples in the 1 through 5 star ratings ?

And why should I look at his whole career? Didn't you just make the argument about how Jones and Gonzales have sucked over the last couple years? Pederson is a future 1st baseman waiting to happen.He's already slower than many of them. Pederson is a big boy and I don't care how average his whole career WAS in CF he isn't getting any faster.. WAS is not now . At least Rowand wasn't slower than a lot of 1st baseman nor was Jim Edmunds. Winning matters in 2019 ? Really . Winning what ? The award for the best under .500 team in baseball ? The best team with the most guys who aren't going to be on the team after 2020 ? The youthful core will be supported but not by Pederson playing CF that's for sure. Hopefully by Machado, a whale pitcher next year and Madrigal, Collins, Robert, Jimenez, Gonzalez, Basabe and whoever else we sign for 2020 and after that.

No he wants to create a team with long term competitiveness to reach the playoffs for multiple years. I'm pretty sure that won't be 2019 with a slim chance at 2020. More likely starting in 2021 after Pederson would be gone along with Alonso, Jay, Colome, Herrera and possibly Abreu.

I did also use catch probability which incorporates the things you mentioned as far as what made Roward a good defensive CFer. but you didn't like that one either. I can't remember if I used Edmunds as an example in my other posts on the subject. I know i was going to not sure if I did. I also go pretty far back in my observance of Sox Cfer's and you could also use Ken Berry as an example. I'm not 100% invested in sprint speed but using it made me realize he is pretty damn slow. I'm not against acquiring Pederson to use a a corner OF but there damn well better be a much better guy in CF to cover for the slowness that will be the Sox OF when the corners are so slow and rated poorly . It's never a good sign when 2 of the slowest guys on your roster are your newly acquired Ofer's (Jay is even slower than Pederson) but rated a bit higher than Joc in CP. I totally understand wanting to win more right now,but it would be a mirage since none of the added pieces currently are more than 2 year players. The only difference is we still have a shot and Machado and Eloy will be here. After those 2 years we can see how all the other CF prospects stack up and we have quite a few of them. After those 2 years the Sox again lose a lot of payroll maybe including Abreu too. Next year you can sign a whale starting pitcher to ease the transition while Kopech Cease and Dunning perhaps adjust to the big leagues.

You're right we don't need them well except as lures for Machado and the relief pitchers to support the young staff. So yes I support the lures and the pitchers and I don't support another lousy defensive future 1st baseman clogging up the OF. That doesn't make me a criminal Yes on Machado No on Pederson. Yes on defense and our young talented starting pitching. No on giving up any minor league talent for 2 year players.

AH the old Sox could extent him line. That happens so much . Extend him because the current climate of our prospects in the future OF are so dismal ?

Well it might ve been lip service but Hahn did say if there was one thing he can guarantee it would better defense in 2019. I'm paraphrasing but I'm sure of it.

It just seemed to be the best one I can find that uses more than just speed since it also takes into account reads and jumps.

Nice post but can you tell me why the Sox need Joc Pederson in 2019 and 2020 ? And for clarity's sake again no stats on how good Rowand was defensively or really how fast he was. so lets all just assume he was a great fielder and not fast because Aaron Roward was a beloved Sox player and let's appeal to that instead. Aaron Roward who wasn't fast and an instinctual fielder: I suppose you are basing your opinion on the eye test since you shat on Sprint speed, Catch Probability and just about any defensive metric we can find. Haven't seen one person use DRS or anything else to support their "he's good but I can't prove it but I can sure discredit your attempts at proof. This post was more like was it over when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor post. Appealing to the good old fashioned eye test and the glory of our much beloved ARow when usually all the greatest posters ( myself not included in that} tend to use advanced metrics. ) For every Aarow Roward I can give you 5 guys who had great speed and were much better CF's than him using the eye test too if you want. Catch probability does its best to incorporate those great instincts you talk about but now its no good. As far as Palka goes you are probably right but you might not be given you talked about how bad he was and not how good he may become due to the weight lose. Yay points for you because you rallied the troops General.

He is. Catch Probability ranked him 75th out of 87 OF's in a year where he played mostly LF. Now imagine him in CF all the time. If by not bad you mean he can catch routine flys balls you're right he isn't bad at that. Anything more challenging he's not going to make the catch. Funny how those who might think he is a bad OF or think Palka could be just as good have to talk themselves into it while those who think he isn't bad haven't talked themselves into it because they so badly don't want to see Engel out there again or are willing to sacrifice defense for the long ball.

It might end of that way anyhow if we don't get Pederson. I'm still worried we don't get Machado . So if Machado isn't here why pursue Pederson ?

If that's what matters then having Pederson makes no difference because odds are he won't be here in 2021. So that's one of the many points I've been trying to make. Saving runs IMHO is worth more to a young pitcher and can be the difference between a pitching thinking he let his team down or thinking he kept his team in the game. It's extremely demoralizing seeing a pitcher give up 3 runs in a bases loaded 2 out jam when an OF doesn't make a catch a much better OF would have. With sloths in the OF we might be seeing a lot of that so it just isn't on Engel as much as it is on the OF as a whole. It might be the difference between a ERA of 4 which is considered decent now in the AL and a 5.00 which we consider bad. If we have to trot out 2 sloths then the gazelle becomes that much more important.

It's always fun seeing the prospects in ST games. The highlight of last spring was the grand slam by Robert.

Yep they only use it in max effort plays and eliminating the bottom 3rd makes sure of that.

Listen I get your point offense is exciting runs matter and all that . Don't you think that if we add Machado, Eloy is good and Abreu bouncing back to his normal self our offense will be much improved. Maybe Moncada also takes a leap forward . I think that is plenty of offense, Palka if he's around and Alonso also are decent bats. Our fundamental difference is apparently I care about pitching and defense where you care about offense. Guess we will have to agree to disagree here because you responded so fast there's no way you read about Catch Probability. Apparently all the stats I provided nor having the slowest OF in the majors can't convince many people that our defense around our young pitchers is worth caring about.

75th out of 87 qualified outfielders in Catch Probability in a year he played mostly LF ? How is that not bad ? Catch probability is explained in the above post if you care to read it before I hear about reads and jumps.

Sprint Speed is Statcast’s foot speed metric, defined as “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window.” The Major League average on a “max effort” play is 27 ft/sec, and the max effort range is roughly from 23 ft/sec (poor) to 30 ft/sec (elite). A player must have at least 10 max effort runs to qualify for this leaderboard. That was from Fangraphs If you want to use catch probability here is the definition. Catch Probability expresses the likelihood for a ball to be caught by an outfielder based on opportunity time, distance needed, and direction. “Opportunity time” starts when the ball is released by the pitcher, and “distance needed” is the shortest distance needed to make the catch. Learn more about how direction is accounted for here. Read more about the details of how Catch Probability works here. . we know that not every fly ball is created equally. An out may be an out in the scorebook, but there's a very different amount of skill required to catch the lazy fly ball that has a 95 percent Catch Probability as opposed to the sinking liner that has a 10 percent Catch Probability. Regardless of how it "looks," we should attempt to credit that difference in difficulty accordingly. So that's exactly what we're doing. Since Statcast™ tells us the exact start position on the field for each fielder and also tracks the hang time of each batted ball, we know the two most important pieces of data to define the difficulty of a catch opportunity are: 1. How far did the fielder have to go? 2. How much time did he have to get there? (Which direction he was running is also important, and while it's not incorporated right now, it will be rolled into the formula early in the season.) For each of those two data points, there are important specifics to point out. First, we're using "Distance Needed," not actual "Distance Covered," and that's because a fielder who runs a poor route and artificially adds more feet to his path shouldn't get extra credit. Second, we're starting the clock at the pitcher's release, not the point of batted ball contact, and we're calling that Opportunity Time. Why? Because we've seen great fielders like Kevin Kiermaier specifically talk about reading the catcher's signs to anticipate where the pitch will be and get a head start in that direction. That's a skill, and that deserves credit. this was from https://www.mlb.com/news/statcast-introduces-catch-probability-for-2017/c-217802340

How does statcast sprint speed not equal play speed ? They are measuring your speed when you play . These are not 100 yard dash speeds that statcast uses. There are plenty of guys who get great jumps and reads but that doesn't make up for the ability to run down balls in the gap that much slower guys with great jumps and read cannot get to. The jumps and reads are much more important when balls are hit straight at you than balls in the gaps. Much more statistical data has been provided by Balta and myself. If you as well as many other want to insist Avi was a terrible OF I cannot control those thoughts But whether you use sprint speed or Outs Above Average Avi was a far better fielder than Joc Pederson was in 2018. Why was he better ? Apparently his speed made him get to a lot of balls many slower OF's couldn't get to. Avi +4 Pederson -7 in OAA. Not even close.

However Statcast does it. It;s how much ground you cover per second. I think they use it mostly when running the bases. However you can also use statcast Catch Probability if you prefer among qualified OF's. Perderson was #75 with an OAA ( outs above average of -7, Their list of qualified OF'ers only goes up to 87. SO Pederson was 75 out of 87and thats with the majority of time played in LF. Jay was #63 at -3. Avi was #30 with +4. Engel was a +16 We can break it down furthur with how many opportunitys Pederson had for 5 star catches , he was 0 out of 10 chances. 4 star catches 1 out of 11. 3 star catches 5 out of 10. 2 star catches 13 of 17. 1 star catch 7 of 8. Go here if you need how to better understand this data. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/catch_probability_leaderboard

Pederson and Jay would currently be in the bottom 5 guys on the Sox as far as positional players speed goes. I'll just automatically say Castillo and McCann are slower. Machado is as fast as Pederson. I can accept slow OF's in the corners but it really emphasizes the need for speed in CF then, God help our pitchers.

Same guy as Engel no point.

Yes it is and I acknowledged that point. All one has to do is look at the best CF'ers and look at how their speed relates to it. This is not rocket science. Mickey Mantle, Paul Blair WIllie Mays . Trout, Buxton ,Engel, Kiermaier and on and on. Do we really want the slowest OF in baseball regardless of jumps and reads when we are trying to instill confidence in our young pitchers ? The ERA's and FIP's are going to take a beating with an OF with Eloy, Pederson and whoever out there. This is not even debatable. I'm surprised because of the urgency in some posters to get Engel out of CF how willing we are to accept a terrible OF defense with a guy who won't even be here in 3 years at the expense of our pitching staff. The pitchers are the key to the rebuild not Joc Pederson in CF.

Come on please. I was making a point of how slow he is. If you can't argue legitmately. I will not discuss this you any further.

Faster than Pederson and that was before he lost weight. Abreu and Kevin Smith are faster.

He would be better if he was faster. Maybe his reads and jumps are good Idk , you don't know. I still don't see anything telling me how my arguments are flawed . Give me facts . I did so can you. He cannot be rated as an even average CF without foot speed. He is SLOW not just slow for an OF'er. The Dodgers played him mostly in LF and saw the need to put their slick fielding 1st baseman in CF over Pederson. What's the argument for Pederson in CF . Is this all some kind of wishful thinking trying to fit a square peg in a round hole to justify his acquisition ? I got noproblem playing him in a corner . But no way do you have an OF of Eloy , Pederson and whoever in right field regurarly. Doesn't anyone care about supporting our young pitchers ? Whatever happened to being strong up the middle as a foundation of good defense ?