CaliSoxFanViaSWside

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 08:06 AM) League average wOBA for a RF is .330. If his best season should have been a .353, it doesn't take much regression to be league average. And a league average bat with bad but maybe improving defense in RF is a below average player. So you disagree with the whole premise that Avi wasn't significantly lucky last year ? Not sure you or maybe its me because you are certainly more in tune with stats than I am but I don't think that .353 figure you mentioned was a best season scenario , it's his expected xwOBA not wOBA based on his batted ball stats. His actual wOBA was .385. I hope you read the whole article.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Dec 3, 2017 -> 11:39 AM) I don't think that the ball is the sole reason for his improvement, nor do I think it's the biggest reason. I just wanted to point out that it is at least a factor. The walk rate/K rate changes are more likely just a better approach, or pitchers respecting him more. You probably made more of an argument for Avi than against him with the juiced ball argument since Avi isn't known for being a fly ball hitter and the juiced ball definitely helped those who are with the record numbers of HR's hit. Sure Avi had a career high in HR's but certainly HR's did not play a significant factor in his batting average.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 2, 2017 -> 07:20 PM) Read the article I mentioned. His BABIP was driven by an unusually high batting average on ground balls. If it were driven by him actualling hitting more line drives that would be one thing, but a big chunk of those grounders will likely turn into outs next year. His BABIP will almost certainly fall by a good 40+ points next year and that’s going to radically impact his offensive production. If he doesn’t learn to get more loft, he’s suddenly a 2ish WAR OF and that assumes his defensive & baserunning improvements stick. Here's an article from SSS about BABIP and if Avi really was lucky as some suggest . here is the conclusion but read the whole article to fully understand the data. https://www.southsidesox.com/2017/10/11/164...ir-side-in-2017 "It’s widely believed that Garcia’s .392 BABIP has fueled his stellar season. That’s true to a degree, but xwOBA doesn’t see him falling off all that hard. The .353 figure above still suggests he’s a very good hitter even without the fortuitous bounces. With his vastly improved defense in right field, Garcia looks the part of a well above-average player even when his luck comes back to earth." It also says that ground balls go for hits 24% of the time while fly balls are 21% . Now this info was from 2014 so there is the caveat that with many more HR's during 2017 that fly balls produce a higher percentage now. Also that xwOBA doesn't take the players speed into consideration . Avi had many infield hits and his speed and hustle down the first base line no doubt was a factor so speed isn't really luck it's just part of a players skill set. Now Avi no doubt caught a few infielders off guard with his improved speed and some of those hits were just a fielder taking his sweet time and Avi made them pay for it so those kind of hits most likely won't happen again. But overall when you take speed and xwOBA into consideration Avi was not as significantly lucky as many suggest.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Dec 3, 2017 -> 02:22 AM) Seems to me that your response qualifies more so for gobbledygook than CaliSoxFanViaSWside's original post. I partially wanted to point this out just because gobbledygook is oh so fun to say... so... gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook, gobbledygook. gobbledygook! GOBBLEDYGOOooooooooK!!!!! I actually think he meant to quote your" wah wah wah " post rather than my" it's fun" post. Balta and me have actually been on the same side of the Avi argument and your post about wah wah came right after his on standard deviation.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 06:16 AM) I'm okay knowing that he didn't choose the White Sox because he wanted to be with a team that had something we couldn't have -- like being on the West Coast, or having a better Japanese-American population. But it would really hurt knowing he was willing to choose Chicago despite all that, and that the Cubs simply beat us at pitching him. Because if he's considering the Padres, you know the contention window thing doesn't matter. Maybe he just didn't like bunting.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Dec 2, 2017 -> 09:01 PM) After months and months of the same back and forth exchange - it's now become... To me it's fun even more so now than when I was challenging everyone about Avi. At least now a few have converted. Next year if he doesn't get traded a few more probably twice as many with 2 good seasons in a row.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 09:05 PM) If so, man, I'll gladly wear it. I'm still not on board, simply because I saw better results this year from the same old (in my eyes) flawed process, and I just can't see the objective evidence that it'll continue. But I've always said I hope I'm wrong about him, and I really do. My question to you is if the process is so flawed how did he do soooo much better than anything he had previously done? I can understand the flawed process yielding incrementally better results but not to the extent that he blew previous numbers away.

QUOTE (Jack Parkman @ Dec 2, 2017 -> 06:09 PM) If you look at the data on Avi there is no reason why anyone should trade for him. If you believe the underlying stats, 2017 was an extreme outlier, and is highly unlikely to be repeated, and a team would be giving up valuable assets for someone who would be a non-tender candidate in the 2018-19 offseason. I posted in the Avi thread about this. It only takes one sucker though, and if Hahn gets an offer of anyone who is or could be a prospect, he should take it and run. It's sort of funny how a guy who hit .330 with near 20 HR's and 80 RBI improved his defense , his speed, his base running , cut down on his K's , had career highs in doubles , triples, HR, WAR, OBP, wRC+, OPS, OPS+, Total bases and was an All Star is treated with such disdain ,as if all those things just magically appeared without dedication and hard work to actually improve himself. Will he ever have such a high BABIP again ? Probably not but give the guy some credit. Hitting.330 and the rest of it is not just some result of the stars aligning right or making a deal with the devil .

Tough choice. I really like Avi and think he will continue to do well but he still has just the one good year.. Abreu is much older than Avi in baseball years but has been productive although not great 1/2 the time. Abreu is likely to be a better bet for short term production but Avi, if legit, the better choice for long term production. Abreu is the safe choice if you want the best chance at being right . Avi the best bet if you truly want a piece that is certainly young enough to be useful to the rebuild. It's really a toss up so I'll go with Avi just to show faith in him. Since I had faith in him when he sucked I have to have faith in him going forward. Edit: Oops the question was who would you trade and I picked Avi when I wanted to pick Jose .

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 10:05 PM) I don't even like The Office, but that's a pretty great reference by Hahn. But maybe Hahn heard The Office is Ohtani's favorite show !

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 10:24 PM) If we acquired extra international money I don't think we could spend it on him? $200k is "max per player" for us right? I'd take some A-ball reliever for Smith. He's a nonterrible backup catcher. Unless we're carrying him as a DH he'll have to be moved, and there's always a dearth of positive cheap backup catchers. 300K Maybe I should've used a wink emoticon instead o.f the tongue to indicate it was in jest.

One thing is certain . The Sox are pursuing power bats, getting players ti fit our ball park.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 1, 2017 -> 03:04 PM) Anyone think that we could get someone to take a trade flier on Kevan Smith? Give us back a reliever candidate or something like that? Slot money for the Ohtani push !

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 07:48 PM) No. When Dick Allen heard Hahn speak and Hahn wasn't enthused about Avi or Abreu, I knew both would be gone this winter. It will happen. Dick was there. He heard it. So let it be written. So let it be done. Nonsense, what he heard was standard Hahn-speak ,means nothing. Meet my price and it shall be done on any player. Give me your 1st born child. That is Hahn 1st Commandment on veteran players in a rebuild.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 12:33 PM) I almost forgot which player we were talking about a couple times. Maybe my pro-Avi stance the last few years and his very good season is wearing you down . One more very good year from him and I might even be able to say " told ya so. "

QUOTE (hi8is @ Nov 27, 2017 -> 08:04 PM) Thanks for playin along Ron. I've been too slammed still in "real life" to write mine... but kudos. Cheers Someone around here has to take you seriously some times.

QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Nov 26, 2017 -> 09:43 AM) And even if he has I'd have to think twice about it...for a corner outfielder he doesn't have a lot of power and his defense and base running is comical as well as his understanding of simple fundamentals. This seems overly harsh as if we were not watching the same player. Not only did Avi hit .330 but he probably had his best defensive season and while still not a good fielder he is now adequate. He also possesses a very good arm and runners do not often attempt to take an extra base on him as evidenced by a good assist total. As far as base running he is not a legitimate 20 stolen base threat but he does have very good speed. He was among league leaders in infield hits and that is because of a combination of speed and hustle. No one hustles down the 1st base line like Avi does. If a fielder hesitated at all Avi made many plays much closer than they should 've been and actually beat out a few.This was due to his off field conditioning and lost weight. I certainly understand how the past can influence your thinking about Avi but I think you haven't looked at his overall improvement with an open mind or an attempt to dig a little deeper.

Dear Mr. Ohtani. Congratulations on your decision to play in the most talented league in the world. I am sure you will find success with any team you choose because you are dedicated to your craft. The Chicago White Soc offer a unique opportunity to be part of a winning culture for many years. The Sox expect to contend in a short period of time with many talented young players on the rise at the major league and minor league level.Your arrival here as a pitcher and position player would greatly enhance the projected window of contention. It would be a fools errand to make any promises at this point. You certainly would have a place in the lineup and on the mound but to what degree is uncertain now but will be answered in due time with regards to how our other players develop and also as you develop and adjust to the league. Chicago is a big city to be sure but has a small town feel to it. The people of the midwest part of the United States have always been known for their work ethic and family values.. There is a rich cultural diversity among the citizens and although the Japanese community is not as large as some other cities I think you would find enrichment with how the White Sox celebrate our multi-cultural city. The White Sox can also offer a very good track record over the past 10-15 years for keeping players healthy. Some might dismiss that track record as good fortune but we believe it is the result of an excellent staff who stress the importance of communication concerning one's health. We look forward to being very competitive to our goal of making the playoffs multiple years and competing for a World Championship. It would be wonderful to add you to our family and pursue these goals together with a strong resolve. You have a unique opportunity for the adventure of a lifetime and we would be very pleased to have that adventure start and continue with the Chicago White Sox for many years to come. Good fortune and good health to you and those you love . Best wishes, The Chicago White Sox

I wanted JBJ before he broke out as a hitter. Now not so much . And I can't really see the Sox making much of an effort for him if any.

QUOTE (ron883 @ Nov 26, 2017 -> 10:54 AM) Machado isn't getting 500mil. That is absurd. 400 mil is even a bit high. He didn't exactly light it up last season. I predict something like 10 year 35 mil. Would you rather have avi + abreu or Machado+ more touted prospects? I know what makes sense. The sox will have NO payroll. I don't see why it's hard to imagine the sox making a play for Machado. It makes almost too much sense. What's the different between signing 2-4 free agents vs signing machado? Obviously the length will be different, but they will have LOTS of payroll freed up. I don't know what you have against Jerry or if you are stereotyping, but he will spend if he sees it as a wide investment. Manny Machado isn't exactly low hanging fruit.The next time the Sox give out a huge contract for many years without an out of some kind will be their 1st. We'll all see what Reinsdorf is made of when the time comes, if he is still alive. I wonder what happens to the rebuild if Reinsdorf suddenly passes away ? Anyway it's really hard to make an argument for a 10 yr deal because it usually ends up crippling the team financially while all the prospects are now grown up and leaving. The window of opportunity is small . Houston and the Cubs made it look easy but failures are much more prominent since only one team a year is the ultimate winner .We'll see how the Sox go about the business of filling remaining holes or if they will perpetually keep creating new ones or do the whole 2nd tier FA thing and hope for better luck than before. It's one thing to give Luis Robert money, you get all his minor league years and major league time for 6 years so that's about 10 years and relatively cheap if he is productive in his time in the majors. It's quite another thing to pay for past performance and expect it to continue for another 8-10 years when half the contract ends up being in declining/injury years .

QUOTE (Blackout Friday @ Nov 24, 2017 -> 06:12 PM) They wouldn’t do that. I think The Sox likely value Abreu more than most other teams, which is why I doubt a trade will happen. I don't think it happens either. Keep Abreu . Who knows how Moncada might react to losing a mentor and friend and after all it was Abreu who said Moncada should use a lighter bat. We all know how talented the kid is but I like his chances of being a star more with Abreu in his corner.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 24, 2017 -> 10:28 AM) For all those wanting Abreu around for leadership, in the meeting I was in, Hahn said it was a factor, but not as big of one as production, and mentioned diminishing returns on others JA age. They can trade these guys and sign them when they become free agents. Their production in 2018, and most likely 2019 (RH has recently stated 2020 might be more realistic) really doesn't do anything for when the team will be ready. I really think they want to trade these guys unless maybe they agree to a really team friendly extension. All Hahn is doing is stating the obvious. Of course production trumps leadership but a strong leader should not be minimized. There was only one Big Papi but Abreu with a hot bat and his leadership role should not be easily pushed aside. A rudderless ship is useless.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 24, 2017 -> 09:47 AM) We shouldn't minimize the prospect of having both Avi and Abreu through 2020. Two of the next 3 years could well be seasons, in which the Sox make it to the Post Season. I've said it before but, a lineup featuring Moncada, Avi, Eloy, Abreu and one solid left handed bat, sandwiched in between the 3 right handed hitters, could be a very potent offense, irrespective of what the other half of the lineup includes, which should be pretty decent, given all of the young talent. I think that the first option should be to explore the cost of extending both of them. If they want too much money, keep them until they reach free agency and access the team's needs, at that time. As we saw with both Houston and L.A. to win or make it deep into the post season your lineup has to have thump basically from top to bottom. The Sox have to be very careful about too much investing in the future and not enough in the present. We can all talk about adding a big free agent at the appropriate time but that should be done only to make the lineup a force not just to fill a hole . Boston looked like a pretty decent lineup but it ended up not being good enough. Just like pitching you can never have enough bats. If the Sox have learned anything from the years before the rebuild it's you don't half ass it. If you want to win build the team from depth not from desperation. Kids won't always develop . Keep some established bats around.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 19, 2017 -> 01:50 PM) No, teams do it because it’s an effective way to build a winner. Not everything is a conspiracy. Not a conspiracy but more of a win win situation. Fans accept it and teams still make money . Not all teams will pull it off successfully . That's when it gets ugly . The ones bowing down to Hahn's genius will be calling for his head.

QUOTE (TheTruth05 @ Nov 17, 2017 -> 08:11 AM) I like "Thyanos" best. Thymaster ? Thyranasaurus ? Thykwando ?