bmags

We have DH open and he is multipositional

I don't think Crochet is likely as a SP next year do you? I think he's in minors as a starter but is eventually a RP for us next year. And hopefully we see him as a starter for 2022, but even then he has so much to work up to on his arm.

Here's my guess: I have zero clue if this is basic maintenance a lot. But I remember a Fegan article with Colome on all that he has to do to keep his shoulder healthy. I wouldn't be surprised if they think he's on verge. That said, if they strike out on Hendriks, I'd put money that colome is their plan B. One thing though looking at hendriks, no matter what way you look at it, he was just so dominant last few years. Velo was fine, whip is low, k rate is insane. If Tony handles him more conservatively in season, we may be able to milk a good 3 years out of this guy and not see that multi-inning fire starter fade out.

Pretty affordable AAV. Screaming from the roof tops, for all the talk of catcher scarcity, they always seem to be a pretty affordable contract.

This is 100% true, but I hope somehow in this dumb world a seed is planted on a soxtalk board, is stolen from a fleeting grifter, gets seen by steve stone and others, serves as a subliminal message, suddenly they see things like flights to LA, and the very common girls name STELLA everywhere they go, and when they have a daily team meeting, all they can say is La Stella? Should we sign La Stella? And when it all happens they will think it was their idea the whole time, and that's ok. I do this for all of us.

Just for reference, 2020 Coleme + McCann was $15.9M, so that's probably where some of the discrepancy lies here.

I think there is a tale of two worst case scenarios on this board. In one worst case scenario, we have a starting pitching staff of Giolito, Keuchel, Lynn, (Quintana|Paxton) and Cease. They all stay 100% healthy, and are all good, and we don't have room for a successful Kopech in the minors. In a different worse case scenario, we have a starting pitching staff of Giolito, Keuchel, Lynn, Cease and (Lopez|Stiever), they suffer a single injury or underperformance, and we are suddenly trying to figure out if Flores or some other pitcher is needed. A single pitcher gives us a lot of depth.

One key person you are forgetting is colome, who was $10.5 mill last year. Sox were at about 128 last year, and then they signed EE,

yes. Don't just do subtraction, most of our extensions saw arb 1 last year, and their raises weren't that different than expected arb.

Because we remember last year, and Kopech cannot handle a full starter load.

The sox are at about 114 mill. I really do not expect them to be less than last year, so I think expecting 140 mill and ~26 mill is more accurate with Hendriks (13M)+Q(11-12M) more accurate to be wrapped up.

After reviewing stuff again...Hendriks is really good. My preference that I don't think happens would be Hendriks + Paxton. I think Hendriks (13M) + Paxton (15M) puts you at 28 mill, and you can use money on maybe a flyer on Roenis Elias for bullpen help (I like that he ditched his sinker and has a nice looking Curve + FB, which was lower in velo last year but may be due to weird year). That said, non-Hendriks 30 mill I think I'd go: McGee 4M Paxton 15M LaStella 7M Kahnle 4M If sox go Hendriks/Q, I'd really hope they try for mcgee.

The reliever market this year is wonderful. Last year it was pretty awful.

It’s funny because I want Hendriks, I think he specifically is worth it, but the relief market is the one I WOULD feel good bargain hunting. There is a lot of talent, and getting a guy like bradley and letting pen figure it out doesn’t seem so bad. I don’t know if I prefer Hendriks + Q at say, 24 mill vs Bradley (6.5?) + Paxton (14?) + McGee (4.5) or even an interesting Bradley + McGee + Sugano + la Stella ❤️ at 27 mill

I disagree, in general they are wrong.

They are going to be pretty bad. But this is a good year to do it. Get all your bad contracts off books, figure out who you want to extend, and go off to the races. Patrick Williams looked good. Coby was rough, but bulls are going to need time. WCJ was awful.

DAHL-as pretty good

I know. I'm just amazed that a front office source could have opinions like "long term deals never work out" when they work in baseball every day and have much better information than we do.

Then they should trade him at that point.

I hadn't heard that. When he changed them I thought consensus was it asks a lot of his legs and he would have fatigue issues.

He hit FA at the worst possible time of his career due to both market and his bad year. But considering 1 yr 10 mill seems like the cost of business for just "pitcher we think can pitch 150 ip even if its bad", I feel comfortable giving 18 mill or so to lance lynn where it's likely he'll be available and hit something like 3 WAR.

Lance Lynn, pitcher of 1500 innings with a career 3.57 ERA, has a short track record of success.

Giolito didn't start with money like Moncada and Robert so he is more likely to want to hit FA. Also, Giolito already has money so he can wait for FA. Just normal, rational stuff.

I remember when we said Moncada and Robert wouldn't sign extensions because they were signed for a lot out of LatAm.

Sign kershaw but tell him to keep it a secret, go to scherzer agent and say "heres the deal", then they both sign.