bmags

Sorry shouldn’t we be at 100% infection rate by your calculations? I’m confused.

A strong day in Illinois. Averaging 30k tests a day now. Cases down to 786 for a drop in % positive of 2.6%.

So it’s like any door? I don’t know why the minimum wage has any part of this. They often are only staffed with one person. They can’t just leave the register every 15 minutes to sanitize every pump. Wash hands. But surface transmission is a much smaller concern than preventing people getting together in indoor areas for long periods.

Seems like the greater problem was opening up your restaurants with no restrictions and no public health requirements for masks. I have no idea your obsession with gas stations. But regardless we aren’t going to shut the border from Indiana Wisconsin or Missouri. People live and work crossing those borders daily and there won’t be an Northern Ireland checkpoint. You need to deal with providing as safe an environment as possible and eliminating risks as if a case could arrive because it will.

I'm not that worried about travel. Community spread is enough to light it. Mostly worried about bars/restaurants being reopened indoors.

And look, I was one of the people critical of Cuomo but especially deblasio. He shouldn't have ordered LTC take positive patients discharged from hospitals. Others had similar info and knew better. However, nobody was in the same situation as NYC was in, and NYC was in that situation because it is a global travel hub that was likely to contract it - but also we did not have any tests to know whether it was spreading beyond known wuhan travelers. And then we know it's spreading, and there is immediately a capacity issue. The Federal government dragged its feet, it delays providing hospital ships, then they arrive and basically nobody is able to use them. The capacity issue was real and pressing and it was understandable at the time to take a risk because it was likely you were facing people dying in the streets. But it was shortsighted. IT was a bad decision, but it was one that was made because the fed government is absent. Some governors are making bad decisions. They are operating in a space where they are more able to because the fed communications are a shitshow and they are saying "you deal with it". Well when people see the feds saying "eh not a big deal" it's a lot harder for the governors to go against that sentiment.

Essentially same day as yesterday. Cases 857 on 30,425 tests, 2.8% positive rate. Could be a 2-day blip, but my worry: - Last week tests were pretty low at only 18-21k, they have surged to 30k this week. Is this a sign of additional ease and capacity? Or are more people concerned they have covid? These tests rose considerably, but didn't suppress the positive rate, the rate seems to be trending up. Not by a lot, and last week had the incredible day of 29k tests and under 500 cases, but it is more like 2.7% with todays after being 2.6 the previous 7 day avg. More testing you'd hope to see lower %positive. Illinois has seen these raw number blips before, and they often ended up being good news. A surge in testing at once catching more cases and then it seemingly settling down for a while. I hope that's the case with this.

?

Incredibly false.

I don't hate it, makes sense with the way rosters are at the moment. If you are going to kick a guy out you want it to be for more than an interesting college senior.

wellp. Near 900 cases today. Record tests at 31k+, but creeping back up toward 3% with 2.8% positive.

I mean...that's not that much money over a lifetime. That's what like 40k over 40 years, that's not bad but people probably dream of making more than that.

I am very concerned about anti-vaxxers and the vaccine. The anti vax movement has seemed to have seized on this and made some real growth recently. But yeah I'm one-hundred percent in the crowd that thinks once the virus is low enough, masks + handwashing + certain restrictions allow life to mostly go on. That said, I really don't think night clubs or venues should be allowed to reopen until a vaccine (and should be reimbursed), and that restaurants/bars should be shut down at 10. If not, they need to be the first things that snap back when numbers creep up. But they need to be reimbursed.

Right. Also zone the stadium. assign bathrooms. Simplify the menu and have only certain food per zone or if possible make everything brought to the people a la in the club section. There are definitely ways to do it but the worst parts about it are definitely the bathroom situation and concourse.

It's clear with two people being confused that crush is not literally 0 cases exist and walling yourself off like new zealand, but getting the virus to a point where it's declined or in the background. It will be hard to use economic health as a judge considering so much of the world's economy is offline, including a very hampered US as one of the world's biggest economies. But I think it's odd how often people are acting like lockdown is the main strategy. Lockdown occurs when control has been lost due to inadequate policy, testing and tracing. South Korea has had moments of targeted lockdowns but never a full Chinese, Italian or even Chicago-style lockdown. Japan never did though theirs appears to be luck. Hong Kong has avoided long lockdowns. Controlling the virus does not equal lockdowns. And the entire idea that other countries are at an advantage because it is burning through is just not supported by anything. NYC certainly has a level of previously infected that makes it less vulnerable to the way covid spreads than florida had. But no country will approach herd immunity this year, and for that infection level to even occur you would be talking about an economy shut down. As we have seen now with Texas...shut downs are as voluntary as they are government driven. When you get the virus down to a low enough level, society can probably function well enough with high acceptance of mask wearing, handwashing and cutting down on large indoor crowds and pushing most activities outside. But that can only happen when you get the virus down low enough. Many places began opening up when it was still quite a threat, but also did so with little restrictions and with a populace not demanded to wear masks. That isn't good enough and that's a US state thing. Berlin started taking off masks and reopening, and then berlin started doing berlin things with night clubs and has to shut down some. But the shut down is targeted (night clubs, bars), not the entire state needing to pull back like texas. The virus is no where near burning out in the rest of the world. And the balance is "should we accept higher deaths, longer time under suppressed economic activity so that we can let this get the us to 25% infected by EOY before a vaccine may be available" or "should we create a series of policies and restrictions to suppress the virus to a very low level so that we can enjoy 80% of life as normal while we wait for a vaccine" The us has very little additional protection from it's higher serology levels, has lost months due to mismanagement, and is now in late june about to see a bunch of important economies pull back. That's horrible management, and so all the "burn" we are enjoying has not put us at any advantage over any other country in the world. And it didn't have to be this way, and it very much is the fault of the federal government who has extraordinary powers to help in emergencies, even if the US can take advantage of states experimenting.

This is the good stuff

You think new zealand is the only country that has outperformed the US?

Well, they could soon decide to take in tourists from functioning countries. How many people would travel there if the virus was under control? If you rely on tourism you aren't making a better decision to have the virus running rampant.

This is nonsense. Throw a stone on a map and you could find countries that have done this without either.

well I don't see any reason we couldn't track the same progress as new york which is closer to 1%. They are up to 50k tests per day when IL has hit a ceiling of around 30k (which I still think is just failure to promote that they are free and open without referral so fewer are trying to get tested. I'd like Illinois to be closer to around 250 new cases per day by mid july. 700 in a day is too much.

I think I agree with everyone on the nursing homes. NYC/NJ forcing back still positive but recovered patients into nursing homes caused a surge of elderly death. But the only real way it seems to protect nursing homes is to crush the virus in the general population. But the PPE shortage didn't help either and even though it's better now Illinois assisted living homes still are facing shortages.

illinois is creeping down but feels like a plateau after such incredible progress in early june. 715 cases today but after a surge of tests (29331 tests so 2.4% pos rate). Chicago continues to drop precipitously in average cases. But needs to stay stable until contact tracing begins in earnest in late July.

man 60 games really hits home when you see 31-29 as your final record. Every game is going to be insane. I worry for pitchers because 60 games isn't that far off from it just being a huge tournament.

This is why I would like to see the state suspend their requirements on PE (I can't remember if it's only high school with the 4 year req). That frees up a huge space to use for additional lunch room but also frees up additional personnel. But I don't know that an individual school district could make that decision.

If you would have told me before the season started that the Sox would be tied for first place with 60 games left I’d have been ecstatic.