bmags

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-illinois-20200409-qusa53emd5avldhzk2l6prc7hi-story.html an excellent rundown of where testing is in Illinois. The trib has been essential.

But on the positive side: - Despite it climbing, I feel confident chicago can meet capacity. We will not become new york. - This:

ugh, still climbing. 1529 new cases. And we seem completely stuck at 5k tests per day. Nearly 500 known deaths. Tough week to get through.

So ... both Singapore and South Korea have shut down in response to a second wave (S Korea not a full shutdown, shut down bars and restaurants). Singapore full shutdown. Both are the right thing to do, and both have avoided mass death on their populations. But yeah...this will not be rolling, and whatever bills pass need to not just be one-offs, they need to literally create triggers to consistently be available so local authorities can act based on whats on the ground.

That's terrible.

You can’t make plans? Of course you can make plans.

It's a sad day. Numbers did not go down, but still on a modest trajectory. But 73 people died, and the deaths over the next week will be terrible. That said, I think Chicago in this first wave has avoided being overrun. That said, we are below the IHME forecast in both beds needed and deaths so far, and mercifully we may be lower on our peak where they had 200+ people die in a day on 4/12. Thinking of all the families who are dealing with grief and the inability to grieve. Shitty day. here is IHME link: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/illinois Here is a screenshot of where illinois is at

We made the inside fabric a different color to know where your mouth was, then storing in a paper bag. Washing often but not every time. I don't have it on while driving, but mostly outside except while running.

There is a lot more noise than I was expecting. But I think the sweet spot is hospitalizations down + 15% or less on percentage positives from the day's testing. Illinois has been noisey, and maybe just false hope, but if it falls today I really think it's the start.

amen. And after a week of games, the thought of none at all will seem painful, not a better solution to the ones who don't want it at all now.

How are we to know that arizona is in fact the correct place to play baseball, and we have instead been playing in fake baseball environments?

This depends how ubiquitous testing can be.

Oh my god this is dumb. People act like Arizona is Mars playing on zero gravity.

Honestly, me too. You are getting to watch the best players in the world play against each other. Yes, fans add stuff. Stadiums add stuff. But put crappy players to play in the best, packed stadium in the world and it's not as important to me as point #1. The idea that not having any of that is better than having this is so strange to me. The players are playing against each other...how is that fake?

I'm going to second the person who said to read the passan report because it really was fascinating and I definitely was missing a lot of the creativity around this (including 7 inning double headers to fit in a 162 season - which is of course interesting because that massively changes how you manage pitchers) But at least for this part, there was discussion of expanded rosters. This is attractive to mlbpa because of service time accrual. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29004498/mlb-union-focused-plan-allow-season-start-early-arizona I have to say, the respect I'd have severely appreciate and respect the players for doing this. It is pretty silly to pair sacrifice with players making hundreds of millions during these times, but separating yourself from your family for potentially 4.5 months is a sacrifice from the player and their partners/parents/etc. A lot of these players probably have very little kids, and while they see them little during regular season, there's a big difference between little and none.

And obviously, those were Illinois numbers not Chicago

woof

Right, but I can't totally discount it being poor US health outcomes. I'd guess 80% likelihood - undercounting. 20%...obesity, diabetes, etc.

wow that is way lower than I would have expected.

Chicago started releasing hospitalization numbers: 3,680 people have been hospitalized with COVID-19, with 12,262 reported cases, that's a 30% hospitalization rate. I think that illustrates we are probably still undercounting by quite a bit. I thought hospitalization was anticipated around 10-12%. Only 4k tests today, I'm not sure we'll hit 10k/day by eow, though I expect a jump tomorrow. edit: it looks like 30% really is common at this point. Either, again, reflection of undercounting or reflection of poor US health. But yeah, 30% getting hospitalized is a LOT.

I think even when it became clear that many "mild" classification cases still had people in delirious fever for 2-3 weeks and feel like their drowning that scared me. I read a piece on the first NJ coronavirus case this weekend. 32 years old, new daughter, was a doctor and knew how bad it was when his oxygen levels got so low. Avoided being intubated but thought he was a goner, and had written a letter to his daughter in case of death. Just terrifying. The whole severity by how bad your dose is is still very confusing. But it makes the risk of our health professionals, and support staff, so amazing, terrifying, and infuriating at their lack of protection.

games will be much faster!

It was obvious at the time, but it sure makes the whole "I alone can fix it" mantra from his convention speech so hilarious.

And, among other things, that stadium is available.

I just think FDA after the AIDS crisis should have created an epidemic response that does better at planning supply and fast tracking tests and medication. Because when you are dealing with patients on verge of respiratory failure, saying "well we don't know what the side effects may be" become less important (or in the case of AIDS, they were already facing certain death).