bmags

If you had told me on 12/15 that I would be sitting in this thread 2 months later with the same amount of info and i would have checked in every day still... I would have basically done the same thing I did but been less enthusiastic.

I think the population is in general much more pro-player than in 1994, when the million dollar athletes became the norm, and that seemed obscene. Now that all the franchises are worth a billion, people seem to get it.

This is one interpretation. The other is the sox contract isn't going away, but the sox also aren't increasing their offer without other, bigger offers. So they need other teams to get into the mix to improve their offers and in turn the white sox. They can safely do this, because the white sox aren't going to move on.

Recognition is big, they feel they are best in game and want to get paid like it. JD Martinez was and is one of the best hitters in baseball, he felt he should be worth just as much as what Chris Davis got. He settled for what was there after waiting to see if it could change. He didn't lose money. Same with Manny. He will be happy with the amount of money he has. But they inevitably feel like they are best and should get paid like it. Is he holding for $50 mill? Earlier opt out? Another year? Who knows but they have (correctly) calculated that they aren't losing by waiting, and look, here just came preller and jumped into mix late. Proof that waiting can help.

I completely agree with this, but you have implied this isn't a negotiating strategy by the players and is instead over player team preference. I disagree that the players are losing money by waiting though. The teams to this point have shown they don't actually care about backup plans. They have players they target and if they miss out they seem to just play with what they have (implying that the remaining free agents are worth less than even their depth pieces). They may be right.

The deal Martinez signed was basically the same that was rumored months prior (in terms of years and money, but the final deal had creative options). By your argument his decision to wait must have been due to him not wanting to play with the boston red sox. Yes, if the Red Sox had offered him $250 million it is likely he would have signed.

good for braves if they do it.

I obviously think the dodgers are better at scouting and development than the white sox (I think 2/3s of the league at least is), but my point was the dodgers specifically have been drafting injured or post-injured players with success in bringing them back with good or better stuff, and sometimes not but the big successes stick out. They aren't the only ones, pearson and jeff hoffman. But it's not always so obvious at the time, some decent evaluators started rethinking the 6' rhp around 2015: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-black-swan-theory-of-drafting-pitchers/ Then BP or someone recently looked at it and due to risk basically said take 6' RHP...just take them in the second round.

I think the worst thing about the padres late push is it validates the players waiting for late entrants because otherwise it really felt like whatever they signed for in late feb was basically same they could have got in january.

This has been a thing with the dodgers though.

Hostetler has said Zack was #1 on their boards. It was not a particularly productive draft yet, but still questionable.

Yeah I’ve really wanted Sox to avoid early opt outs, hoped for a swell opt at year 4

New York and Chicago calcs aren’t same. Chicago has declining population and great fundamentals but still immature tech ecosystem. It is worth more investment to add population and build an economy like that than NYC

Tulane is wonderful, but that market has nowhere near the MBA and engineering pools to tap that the Midwest in places like Chicago or Indy has (Purdue, u or I, Michigan for computer engineering, Northwestern, u of c, Indiana, notre dame for mba/business)

I agree with caulfield.

Actually now reading the article that does make me nervous.

I think you are off on the meet his asking price, it was he needed to provide a formal offer for a sit down. They weren't just doing meet and greets this late in process.

It needs a talent pipeline too. Indianapolis and Rochester are the only ones that would be able to provide that drawing from chicago, u of i engineering, umich engineering.

My skepticism has 100% to do with being able to afford him. While I did not think we could outbid the phillies head to head for one guy, I do think we could easily outbid the padres.

I would do that every day.

Ah, I thought he switched because he was trying to hit 500 hr

good way of putting it.

For FA in general, has there been a free agent that has regretted jumping the market for a deal?

Yeah I thought it was good news. I really have a hard time believing that there are other teams that will offer high value, long term offers other than the white sox and phillies. It's also why I just can't see waiting changing improving the situation for either player and hope it wraps up by mid week next week at latest.

This may be a fan concern, this is not a Reinsdorf concern. After all, he could say " you said you wanted this, bryce harper just signed for x, our offer is much more in line"