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QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 01:17 PM) I wonder why Rios is DHing. At least Andruw is solid in CF too. Ozzie's plan for the rotating DH. Keep a player's bat in the lineup while resting him from the field. This is why he wanted Kotsay and Jones. Good defenders in the field while the starters rest.

QUOTE (Ozzie Ball @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 01:10 PM) Pizza Cutter did a study on how big of a sample size is needed in order for the numbers to hold any predictive value. It worked out that you need a 550 PA sample size for a >.70 correlation with ISO. Two months is not going to tell you a lot. Do you know how they calculated it or where the information can be found? It most statistical prediction models you don't 70% of the data to predict the outcome. Granted the more data you have the more accurrate the prediction will be. However, if you need to get 70% of the data prediction models are useless as if you have 70% of the data the season is basically over and there is no value in prediction.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 09:35 AM) I'm sure somebody has tried to do a power analysis. Guys like Tom Tango and Mitchel Lichtman have been doing sabermetric research for decades. They have a whole book dedicated to things like bunts, clutch hitting, lineup order, hot and cold streaks, etc. If you dig deep enough, you might find something about power. I haven't come across it myself, but it might be out there. Bill James is just some guy who is looked at as the guy who makes up all these stats nobody has an idea about, but he's not really one of the current innovators of sabermetrics. Asking him about something 10 years ago probably isn't going to give you the whole story. Most of the research by Tango and Lichtman are descriptive and not predictive. They've done mostly retrospective studies. I was using Bill James as an example. Even the newest sabermetrics are based on the concept of"how can we determine (insert example) well this makes sense so let's try these factors." Things like WAR are very abstract. Who is the replacement? Is it the average player? Is it AL? Isit NL? We all know the leagues are different so how can anyone player be generalized to everyone. I'm not saying they aren't useful, I've always looked at numbers in baseball as useful. They are helpful for comparison. But when you are discussing stats and the use of them you really need to look at the reliability and validity and how you apply the terms. Back to the original point most people on this site use the concept and term of sample size wrong and it is not a good argument when discussing the predictive value of a players performance.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 09:13 AM) Judging anybody based on a two month sample size isn't a good idea. We've seen numerous times where players go on incredible 2-month power streaks (Chris Shelton, Jonny Gomes) and end up playing like absolute crap for the remainder of the season. As unlikely as it seems that a nobody could run into 20 some odd home runs, it is possible, but somewhat improbable. But still possible. I just read yesterday that the NFC had won 14 straight coin tosses in the SuperBowl, the odds of that happening are 1 in 16384. Seems incredibly improbable, but it's still happening. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a...tingrandomness/ But you and this article are doing the same thing that Big Sqwert admonished Balta for. You are picking events to justify an idea you have about the sample. It's guessing. I'm not saying that 2 months of numbers is an adequate sample size or not. I haven't done the power analysis either. But you using the term sample size wrong. You can say that he is bias in using certain data to make his point, as you and the article did above. But before you start using the statistical terminology in relation to statistics, not events, you should have the data to back it up. There is always statistical error, like the example you pointed out. This is another reason why people shouldn't live and die by Bill James' made up stats during the discussions on this site.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 09:02 AM) I guess I don't understand the point of cherry picking a random 2 month stretch from last year to prove a point. Especially since the comparison shows almost equal results from the 2 players. But there is nothing that proves that 2 months worth of numbers isn't predictive of how a 6 months worth of numbers will turn out. An adequate sample size is only large enough to predict what the numbers will be for another given larger group of numbers. 2 months is 1/3 of 6 months. That could very well be a large enough size to predict the end results within a given standard error of measure. Determining the power analysis is always the first step in running predictive analysis that what you know the number of data needed for a reliable and valid outcome.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 08:10 AM) With the type of mechanics he has...would you worry more about the shoulder or the elbow? Shoulder first, but there are always compensations that could translate it to the elbow.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Jul 28, 2010 -> 08:31 AM) Of course he used a small sample size since Carlos is seemingly injured half the time. rant/ People need to stop using the "small sample size" defense. The last I looked nobody has done a power analysis to determine what the proper sample size needs to be to predict the outcome of a 162 game schedule. Until that's determined you have no idea what the adequate sample size need to be. People continue to use statistical analysis without regard for the reliability or validity of any of the processes. This is one of the problems with all of Bill James stats. He bases them off things he thinks makes sense, but has never done and will never do reliability studies on them. I've e-mailed him and asked him those questions and he replied once about 10 years ago. His respose was "they seem to make sense to me." He doesn't respond to any statistical analysis questions anymore. I know I've stated this before but it bothers me when people use statistical analysis for their discussions when they really don't know how to use the terms. /rant.

QUOTE (FlaSoxxJim @ Jul 25, 2010 -> 05:01 PM) Double Yumm! Do you do your Berliner with woodruff syrup or raspberry syrup? As far as tart beers go, most Berliners really aren't that extreme, but I do like the tradition of adding a bit of sweet syrup. One of my favorite beer styles that I don't get a chance to enjoy nearly as much as I'd like. If anything I'll add the raspberry. I usually just drink it straight. I like it tart. There is a good brewery (the bruery)in CA that makes a real good one.

Thanks everyone! I celebrated with two of my favorites, Berliner Weisse and soft shell crab.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Jul 15, 2010 -> 11:38 AM) So I completely sliced through my tendon on top of my thumb last November and it had to be immobilized for 6 weeks to grow back together. It didn't move when the cast came off and required a month or 2 of therapy to regain movement. It still has residual tightness, acheyness, etc and I think they told me that would last for a year. The point is I put alot of strain on the area being a carpenter, and I started adding loads to it as I felt I could. It wasn't long before I was able to do most everything. Granted I cut a tendon completely in half, not detached from one end. 3 months I was back in the game. I just wonder if he's gonna have to work through soreness all next year and how much that will affect him. If detaching a tendon is similar to slicing one in half, then he could be throwing baseballs sooner than we think. Part of his therapy will require him to push it. the big difference between yours and his will be the amount of stretch his tendon will need to absorb. The tendon in your thumb and wrist will only need to move 45-50 degrees to do most of the activity. His will need to stretch near 250 degrees. If you piut your arm strainght out to the side and point your hand to the floor with your elbow bent this would be 0 degrees. This is about the position during the early cocking phase of pitching. Now, rotate your shoulder so your arm is pointing straight up in the air behind your head as pitcher do during late cocking phase. This is 180 degrees of motion. A typical MLB pitcher will get their arm pointing almost straight backwards druing the accerleration phase. So these tendons need to not olny be very strong but also flexible. This is the true dichotmy of the pitching shoulder strong and loose while being stable.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Jul 15, 2010 -> 11:38 AM) So I completely sliced through my tendon on top of my thumb last November and it had to be immobilized for 6 weeks to grow back together. It didn't move when the cast came off and required a month or 2 of therapy to regain movement. It still has residual tightness, acheyness, etc and I think they told me that would last for a year. The point is I put alot of strain on the area being a carpenter, and I started adding loads to it as I felt I could. It wasn't long before I was able to do most everything. Granted I cut a tendon completely in half, not detached from one end. 3 months I was back in the game. I just wonder if he's gonna have to work through soreness all next year and how much that will affect him. If detaching a tendon is similar to slicing one in half, then he could be throwing baseballs sooner than we think. Part of his therapy will require him to push it. The shoulder will be mostly immobilized for 4-8 weeks depending on what type of anchoer they used to reattach the tendon. The lat is a 7 cm long tendon that needs to wrap around the inside of the humerus. With those variables my guess is that they used a dissolvable anchor similar to the ones they use for SLAP lesions of the labrum. So it's most likely the immobilization will be for 6-8 weeks. Then they will start the slow process of stretching and seeing if the long tendon tightened up enough to restrict full overhead motion. If it did they process will be loger, but they got to it right away so this is unlikely. He will probably be ready to go by December if they a fairly conservative. with the season being over for him there should be no difficulty with him returning for spring training. This is all based on the usual rehab protocols. The true variable is how the long, thin tendon reacts to the ruture (it's not a true avulsion unless a piece of bone comes with it) abd the layoff. There are structures called Sharpey's fibers which begin as tendon and when it attaches to the bone, it blends in with the periosteum which is the outer covering of the bone. This should racts as most other tendons do but in a unique case like this you can never be sure.

QUOTE (DaveBrown85 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 03:59 PM) who wasn't pissed when he got traded? I'm usually in favor of trades when we get back established major league pitching and we don't give up pitching. In fact I think that would be a rule of mine if I ws a GM, never give up pitching unless I get some back.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 09:15 AM) Here's a summary study I found by googling. I can send a pdf if you'd like. There's a number of things that affect it. Heavy production using fertilizers and GM crops that grow faster appear to dilute the amount of nutrients that can be taken up during the lifecycle. Artificial selection in favor of more carbohydrate rich seeds produces plants that grow with greater sugar content, but other nutrients aren't selected for and thus aren't going along. Other industrial techniques, like early harvesting and factory preservation of vegetables, similarly cut the nutrient content. Yes, please send me the pdf. I can't get enough of the information from the abstract. If you have more research article I would appraciate seeing them as well. Being in research myself, I don't take any one study at face value.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 01:29 AM) Well, considering that the way people structure their eating habits is based on what the government's daily recommendations are, I think the government has been telling us how to eat for quite some time. Meanwhile, they have absolutely no idea what they are talking about. They've tried to deconstruct food and reconstruct it with only the properties they believe are the most positive ones. Unfortunately, they end up putting in artificial things that are worse than the natural things they removed. Additionally, only now are nutritionists starting to realize that foods have synergistic qualities that we don't have the capability to understand. Secondly, the government has been subsidizing certain crops that have proven to be the highest-yielding for 40 years in an effort to end poverty and make food less expensive. Unfortunately that means our agriculture is dominated by very few strains of very few crops using very few soil components all treated with the same pesticides. What this has done is indeed increased yields and brought down the costs of food. But it also means our foods are dominated by the same few strains of wheat and corn, and our produce the same few strains of the highest yielding fruits and vegetables. There is no variation. That is not healthy. We are not getting the variety of nutrients we should be. Additionally, our soil has been degraded to the point where our crops are not nearly as nutritionally dense as they once were. They are becoming almost as empty calories as the artificial crap we put on our shelves. How terrible is it that you can't even get the nutrients you need out of the produce that comes right out of the soil? And guess what? That soil is the same thing that the feed that we feed our livestock grows from. So then the livestock is fed a bunch of empty calories and develops into the meat that we eventually eat down the line, which is not as healthy as the meat our parents ate and their parents ate before them. I agree the government standards aren't up to the latest standards, it is far from unheathy. It takes time to get through the government red tape. If you follow their guidelines you will not be fat and unheathy. The research has shown that it is an adequate but not perfect diet. Remember the guidelines are for recommended minimum allowances. You can't blame the government standards for being inadequate if the nutritionist themselves as you state are just begining to understand the synergistic properties of foods. Which is true. But that's for very advanced diets for special needs suchas diabetes, athletes etc. Most nutritionist, dieticians and medical professionals will agree on what a good heathy diet is for an average heathy person. There is nothing wrong with the types of crops which are being subsidized. It is not unheathy to have only a few strains of corn, wheat and beans. We do need variety in a diet to be heathy. But the variety isn't in the form of diferent type of corn or different type of whaet. You need many different types of nutrition but all of the types of corn etc. have basically the same nutrition. It varies some but not a great deal. the soil is not effected if the farmers rotate their crops asmost do. In the Midwest they rotate between corn and beans as each one concentrates on absorbing different minerals from the soil. Like all plants the use the same minerals but use different concentrations of each. I would like to see any information regarding how the soil makes the crops less nutritionally dense. The minerals in the soil will allow the crops to grow properly or not. So they can either be harvested or not. The nutritional value of the crop is in the intrinsic value of the given crop and not what it brings in from the soil, that is primarily for growth. With the catle, there is no feedcorn the has empty calories. The corn will either be heathy enough to harvest and contain the nutrients or it won't be harvested because no one will buy it. While some of your points are valid, you are taking a far too extreme view of them. A varied diet is essential to being heathy and all medical professionalls will agree that if you eat all foods in moderation and eat moderate proportion you stand a ggod cance of being at least fairly heathy. The special needs populations are where it really changes.

QUOTE (southsideirish71 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 12:59 AM) Its not McDonald's fault, or CocaCola, or the government. Its the parents and the individual's who choose to eat garbage over a proper diet. People who shove 1100 calorie super-sized meals into their yap with their diet coke of course, and then complain when they lose track of their feet because they can't see them anymore are missing who is to blame. Moderation in a diet is a wonderful thing. Hell some portion control with some common sense and maybe a tad of exercise would do people a lot of good. The worst thing however is that the current generation is preparing the next generation for failure. Happy meals, and sweets, and garbage are quick and easy and in the end people get into habit of just making their kids happy. We need to start from day one and influence our kids food selections. Kids learn from day one from their parents and their eating habits. If you are sitting on the couch shoving twinkies in your mouth guess what the kid wants to do. So if you incorporate fruits, vegetables, and lean meats with the proper portions from day one you should have a better success rate and healthier kids. Sure my kids like a happy meal, but the fact is we may go to a McDonalds once a month if at that. Correct. I get caught up in it to often as well. Between running from football practice to dance classes after school with the kids sometimes it's easier to go to the crap food.

QUOTE (Knackattack @ Jul 13, 2010 -> 11:59 PM) You don't have to be stretched out to go 5 frigging innings, look at Tony Pena this season. Being daft is assuming that, if they trade Hudson, the next best starting prospect in our system wouldn't make a start or two. They'll abuse Pena that way, he's done it before. They won't do that with a recent first round pick of which they are planning on limiting the innings. Do you think they would do that to Putz, Thornton or Jenks?

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 13, 2010 -> 08:51 PM) It's exactly the opposite. The American public has been mislead by the government and has been eating on the government's tab since the Nixon administration, which is part of the reason the rate of chronic disease is so high with all populations eating the "Western Diet." I've got to hear this one. I don't see how the government has mislead me or most of my clients about the benefits of a poor diet and they aren't picking up the tab for eating either.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 14, 2010 -> 12:39 AM) I wonder if he has to pay for his own hotel room. Not to be a dick, but he's not needed on road trips. He's staying with the team mostly for the specialized rehabilitation. He travels where Herm and Mark go. Since this is somewhat unkonwn territory, they are going to watch him close.

QUOTE (kapkomet @ Jul 13, 2010 -> 08:33 PM) When will you get the point that it's not the government's f***ing place to tell us this kind of crap? While not a government official, Michelle My Belle is hypocritical as hell. Do I think it's a good idea? Sure. But AGAIN it's not the government's place to do this. I generally agree that the goverment tries to get it's hands on too many things that they shouldn't. I'm torn on this one. It's not in the country's best interst to have a fat lazy population and the healthcare costs will increase for everyone in any plan. While it does keep me in business, it seems that at times the American public needs to be told to be not so stupid.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 13, 2010 -> 05:04 PM) Joe Morgan from what I've heard is a strange cat. He is Al Micheals strange.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 13, 2010 -> 04:50 PM) What kind of logic is that? The team is 25-5 and and you want to talk about the defense of a guy who is ON FIRE? That's not very logical to me. I think it "gets a little tiring" to nitpick at this present time. Greg, i gave up these "discussions" years ago. Some posters just aren't happy unless they're complaining about something even during the good times. They'll always point out the weaknesses or bad pints just so everything isn't positive. This isn't a shot at anyone poster, there will just always be that type of poster. They have every right to post those views just remember you will never convince them that it's ok to be positve and not always point out whatever negative they can find.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Jul 13, 2010 -> 04:11 PM) Steinbrenner was a titan of the game, he was also a son of a b****. I hope that no one forgets that amidst the post-mortem glorification. There's something to be said about what his spending methods have done to the integrity of the game but I don't really want to make a big deal out of that. There's no reason to make a big deal aabout it because he did not effect "the integrity of the game". He followed the rules that were agreed upon. Don't get me wrong I think there should be a cap and a floor to salaries to make the game more competitive and even for all teams. However, these weren't the current rules and he followed the rules that were in place.

SS QUOTE (WhiteSoxfan1986 @ Jul 13, 2010 -> 03:43 PM) After reading Verducci's book about the Yankees, I got a very negative view of Steinbrenner. He treated his employees like s***. One year, he failed to give his scouts rings. I'm sorry, but the guy was a grade A douchebag. It sucks that he died, but I'm not going to all of the sudden start talking about how great a person he was. I worked for him in the late 80's and that wasn't my experience with him. He seemed to treat both groups I worked with pretty well. I know his reputation and I've read the book but that wasn't my experience with him. So he wasn't all bad.

RIP I had the priveledge to work for him at Balmoral while in school and then later in the minors. He was a good guy and great to his employees. Except maybe Billy.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 12, 2010 -> 08:25 AM) Has Morneau switched himself to the supposedly awkward looking larger, better protecting helmet yet? If not, is he crazy? Yes, he would be crazy. I'm not they've done CAT scans with him but the number of concussions and the length of time it takes to recover from them is a huge concern. In this one he was kneed in the head. He should not have a headache three days later. This is showing a vastly increased sensitivity to them. ALL precautions should be taken if he was a client of mine. So, bean him on Friday I didn't just think that did I?