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QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 14, 2008 -> 10:07 PM) Really inexcusable to have this lineup combined with our likely 4/5 of Richard and Marquez. That's all that needs to be said. The more I think about it the more I'm convinced this is the perfect year to do something like this. Regardless of the lineup, you win with pitching. The Wihte Sox will not sign an MLB FA starter because they won't sign a 4+ year deal (which I happen to agree with). So you need to build the pitching staff with trade and the farm system. There looks to be some options we need to sort out here. I think we all agree that last year's team wasn't that good and had a number of holes. We won the division because Det. and Cle. far underperformed. We have a number of younger players ready for their shot at the MLB: Getz, Lillibridge, Fields. the rotation is young with another couple of pitchers ready for their shot at the MLB Marquez, Richard. The bullpen seems fine with Jenks, Linebrink, Dotel, Thornton as experience with Nunez seemingly ready for his shot. Dye and Thome will be off the team in the next couple of years. With these players I think you have one year to find out what you have and then your ready for the WS run in 2010.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Dec 14, 2008 -> 08:28 PM) "if you play for one run, that's all your gonna get"-Earl Weaver. There is never any excuse for bunting in the 1st inning, never. Sure there is in a cerain match up of pitchers. Scoring early puts pressure on the pitcher. Can lead to an early exit of the pitcher etc. I don't expect you to agree. There are two camps. We will never see Eye to eye. But the discussions are fun.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Dec 14, 2008 -> 07:01 PM) I imagine we would have scored more if we had full seasons of at-bats from Konerko and Q, and league-average production from CF. Probably. However, it was the inconsistency that drove me crazy. Win 13-1 one day, lose the next two 2-1. I want an offense less dependant on power. I know we still need power due to the park but we still play 81 games on the road and we struggle against the Rays and Min.

QUOTE (daa84 @ Dec 14, 2008 -> 04:21 PM) http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statisti....php?cid=204022 the only stats available there are individual stats. It doesn't really tell you the situational stats. The only way to do it without having a high covariance coefficient is to analyze individual in tandem and in trio probably using a linaer stepwise regression. hitter 1 followed by resluts of #2 and #3.

QUOTE (Felix @ Dec 14, 2008 -> 01:25 PM) Incorrect. When you have a runner on first and no outs, you are expected (based on empirical data from 1999 to 2002) to score .953 runs. That number drops to .725 with a runner on second and one out. Simply said, you are more likely to score with a runner on first and no outs than you are with a runner on second and one out. you're using a false assumption in your data. Both situations start with a runner on first and no outs. The bunting the guy over is included in those results. To have a logical progression you need to start with the runneron first and no outs then start the analysis. Does the batter bunt next: this is one possible scenario, does he hit inot a doulble play, this is the another scenario. Saying a guy on first with no outs scores more often isn't valid because that includes all of the subsequent scenarios

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 13, 2008 -> 07:21 PM) But then why does the first team to score first in baseball win a huge majority of the games, even if that first inning run is only ONE run? All you need to do is look back to 2005 and 2006 (first three-four months) to understand why...whether it's with "small ball/execution/fundamentals/stolen bases" or by pounding the opponent into submission with the big boppers. You need balance, and we haven't had enough of it recently. I really think had we lost to the Twins in 2008, had their "Piranha/Twins' Way" philosophy once again "won out" over ours...that many more fans would be open to this, instead of the Earl Weaver-ish three yards a cloud of HR's approach. That would have given the Twins five AL Centrals in the span of eight seasons. As it is now, they have 4/8 and we have 3/9. But 5/8 versus 1/8 would be very difficult to argue with in terms of needing a change in offensive philosophy, especially considering the disparity in payroll. And, the "trump card" often cited, 2005, that year had ALMOST nothing to do with offense and much more to do with spectacular/consistent starting pitching. Yes, you will always need to be overweighted towards sluggers playing in USCF, but to be completely overloaded or one-sided results in 2001-2004 and 2006-2007 campaigns more typically, especially without the pitching to fall back on. you'll never convince the majority of the people on this board that bunting is a good thing let alone bunting in the first inning. I've tried for the last few years. They don't believe that putting that type of stress on a pitcher early in the game does anything to the pitcher.

QUOTE (jenks45monster @ Dec 13, 2008 -> 01:13 PM) Who cares? I'd NEVER take a flier on a guy who's had TWO Tommy John Surgeries. the two surgeries aren't an issue. The poor mechanics which lead to the surgeries are the issue.

QUOTE (jenks45monster @ Dec 13, 2008 -> 01:38 PM) Getz, Alexei, Beckham, Lillibridge. Take your pick. Beckham will not break camp with the team. I'll be very surprised if he is up before Sept.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 13, 2008 -> 08:37 AM) What about Saito? I want to know more about the platelet injection procedure (see LA Times article on other thread). Can we use it on Jenks or at least Cal Eldred to bring him back from the dead to start? I found the article to which you are referring. It is a different use of the platelets. In this case they are using it as a form of "concentrated" blood and material for repairing tissue. They immobilized the elbow and injected they cocktail into the area of the injured tissue in an attempt to facilitate the healing process. It is experimental and I've never seen it done. They obvious drawback is there is no way to know if it will hold up for any length of time. It could re-tear the next time he throws or last awhile. The key is to modify the mechanics to prevent the stress in the area. this procedure will not work with the bones and stress fractures as the healing process and material is different for bones. This procedure is strictly for soft tissue in this case a ligament. It will be interesting to follow and could revolutionize they way we treat injuries.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 13, 2008 -> 08:37 AM) What about Saito? I want to know more about the platelet injection procedure (see LA Times article on other thread). Can we use it on Jenks or at least Cal Eldred to bring him back from the dead to start? I'm not sure what injury saito has? I haven't seen the LA Times article but the studies I've seen on the platelet injection were mostly on superficial stress fractures in small bones. In Jenks and Eldred's cases the stress fracture is in the distal elbow near the supracondylar ridge (just above the large bump on the inside of the elbow). This is near where the growth plate is as a child. There was speculation that each of them had minor growth plate injuries as young pitchers and this weakened that area. That is only speculation but from a biomechanical bone stress perspective it makes sense.

QUOTE (shakes @ Dec 13, 2008 -> 12:47 AM) I was assuming it was a simple injury the Sox doctors would look into. If not, you move on. I know you have more knowledge on the subject than I do. Is this something that could be a long term concern? Not normally. however, it's definitely worth looking into. A hitter should not get stress fractures unless there is a problem in the training program. Or if the surface they play on is the old cement hard artificial surface. It shouldn't be a long term problem but it's always good to check on it with these contracts.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Dec 12, 2008 -> 10:01 PM) Sure he'll pitch but how well would you expect him to perform coming off a second TJS? It won't make any difference physically. A replaced ligament is a replaced ligament. Unless he didn't have an autograft tendon to use. If they had to use an artificial ligament, it could make a difference. The key question is why he ruptured two of them. Will he need to make drastic mechanical changes to prevent it from happening again. This could make him ineffective. Another possibility was a failure of the first surgery. I'm not familiar with his case but I'll find out.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 13, 2008 -> 07:26 AM) Don't forget Jose Contreras factoring into the equation possibly as well. He has a great work ethic, I think he might actually make it back this year. Having all that extended rest should definitely recharge that arm of his...as long as he loses a bit of weight (he's a HORSE!) and manages not to blow out the Achilles' again. Don't forget, Cabrera had back stiffness and an elbow strain. That PROBABLY accounts for the lost/missing velocity. Read through the Orioles' board for some additional thoughts/insights. http://www.topix.net/forum/source/baltimor...GP0354OSD8EPQVG I don't think they'll let him throw until May or so. I believe they used an augmentation device when they did the repair so he should come back earlier then an average surgery. However given his age, size and the normal healing process, I would bet May. So, it would be about 6 weeks or so to get his arm in shape. Barring any set backs, I would say sometime toward the end of at the earlier before he could pitch in a game for the Sox.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Dec 12, 2008 -> 09:52 PM) Chris Capuano had the 2nd ligament replacement (Tommy John) surgery of his career in mid May, I doubt he'll be a factor for anyone this season. Chuck James had rotator cuff and labrum surgery in September so he'll be worthless until August at the earliest. He's also a big time flyball pitcher so he'd be a bad fit even if healthy. He should be ready to start throwing in Feb. He should pitch most of the season for someone.

QUOTE (shakes @ Dec 12, 2008 -> 03:33 PM) I think a stress fracture will heal by spring training. This isn't a career ending injury or anything. they can be depnding on where it is and the health of the bone. They should heal within 4-8 weeks. We are pushing that time frame now. If it is still an issue the bone density and health of the bone needs to be in question.

QUOTE (rangercal @ Dec 12, 2008 -> 10:30 AM) If it's not broke, fix it? When you need more money, change the uniforms so all of the idiot "Red Sox nation" will run out like lemmings to buy the new merchandise.

QUOTE (Downtown518 @ Dec 12, 2008 -> 10:27 AM) II was wondering if anyone could recommend any quality baseball related books, in any genre, to give as a gift this Christmas. If it helps any, the possible recipient is a varsity coach and a filthy Cubs fan…. Thanks in advance! One of my favorites is the biography of Moe Berg. You combine baseball and a spy novel. It's not for general baseball but it's a good read.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 12, 2008 -> 12:16 AM) Rock pretty much summed it up with his last post. I think I'm going to roll with Kenny and his crew over anybody from this board when it comes to scouting players. this is the way it should be. This is what they do for a living and have been fairly successful at it. Everyone can have an opinion and base it on whatever they wish. However, there is a difference between an informed opinion and an uniformed one. This is where the discussionon the board start. Also, everyone has different views on how to interpret the information. That is what's great about baseball. I go to conferences and sit with "experts" in the biomechanics field and there are many different theories on pitching mechanics. They all have advantages and disadvantages. This is why discussion boards are fun until the name calling starts. Everyone has their own views most of which have some merit and you can learn alot if you have an open mind.

QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 10:25 PM) What team are you the scout for? i'm not a scout but most of research is analyzing pitching mechanics and a great deal of my work experience is rehabbing injured pitchers and other athlets. I've worked with teams in most major sports at a variety of levels from children to the olympic level. I've seen enough ofthem to get a good idea what I'm looking at. Of course, none of it is pure science, but actually working with the athlete you get a good clue about them. As I said before you would be making a mistake to ignore any aspect of evaluationas they all have their benefits and have their own value.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 09:09 PM) You do realize that it’s irrational to make judgments on players based on seeing him once, right? It’s equally irrational to discount the value of what the player has done throughout the year. How can you say stats are meaningless? I never said stats are meaningless. I said I wouldn't pass judgement on a players ability and project his future performance based on numbers alone. Also, he said that he saw him multiple times not just once. But if you want to make extreme arguement while calling me irrational, I would take someone seeing a player once in the minors over versus looking only at the numbers. If i had only those two choices. Heres why. By watching someones mechanics and how he carries himself I can get a better idea of his future projection. Looking at numbers I can't see his mechanics, confidence and projectability. He can go 0-4 and have hit the ball hard or see that he has the confidence to overcome the adversity. You don't see that in numbers. If I am going to make a judgement on a player I watch them multiple times and look at the numbers but lean more towards what I see.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 04:27 PM) You must think highly of Lillibridge?! Atlanta thought highly enough of him to contemplate trading Escobar and keeping him.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxfan1986 @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 04:11 PM) It's amazing how many steroid guys the Yankees have had through the years, add another one to the list. Well they do pay them the best so the players can afford it. Maybe that's the Yankee way, pay them the most so they can get the best illegal PEDs

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 03:03 PM) More importantly, when did he become a pro scout? lol. I've never seen a poster from a message board put so much stock into "Well, I saw him in person. I know for a fact he sucksssssssssss" as much as he is. I don't necessarily agree with everything he says but at least he makes a judgement after seeing the player as opposed to some posters judging players only through numbers without seeing them in person.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 03:51 PM) Personally I'd rather trade Paulie than Dye, but either is fine. I hope Paulie gets his head out of his ass this upcoming season. Who would be PK's replacement? I don't think Abreu would be a fit then. We would probably get more for Dye unless the Angels lose out on Tex and they REALLY need a 1B.

QUOTE (Markbilliards @ Dec 11, 2008 -> 12:55 PM) Defensively though, I think people will see that his arm is not as impressive as they thought when he's making the throw from SS. Tad Iguchi/Cintron/Big Mack made Alexie look like he had a canon from 2nd (he does have a good arm, but not absolutely top notch caliber). I think at SS he'll have a better arm than Cabrera, but a worse arm than Uribe. Some of off balance throws from deep CF make me think his arm is plenty strong.