chitownsportsfan

Glad I turned the basketball game on instead. Maybe the Sox will do something in the 9th.

BABIP regression for Avi tonight. Another loud out.

I'm getting pretty sick of Rick's quick hooks too. He really couldn't stay out there for 10-15 more pitches and try and give the pen only 3 innings to cover?

Some loud ass outs for the Sox too. Again, glad it's a rebuilding year as this game would really piss me off if it wasn't.

Renteria is getting absolutely clowned.

Logan Morrison having "Humble" from Kendrick as his walkup music is the most ironic, awesome thing ever.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 7, 2017 -> 07:25 PM) Haha, little leaguish just awful.

I'm glad it's a rebuilding year because this is a really stupid f***ing game and really f***ing annoying. MAKE THE f***ING TAG.

Every single start with this rotation feels like a little league game.

Some really disturbing trends in game under Renteria the last week. STOP f***ING STEALING. WE ARE AT 50% PERCENT AS A f***ING TEAM.

s*** throw, mediocre tag.

Leury's dumbass almost sidearmed that one in but he caught himself. What a bad habit to get into.

This guy is throwing 93 mph meatballs down the middle. He's going to get rocked 2nd and 3rd time through.

QUOTE (Scoots @ Jun 7, 2017 -> 07:19 PM) I have seen Abreu smile more this year than I have in his last 2 years he has been here combined. He was way more relaxed this spring as well compared to when I saw him his rookie year. That's a BS call to get Avi.

That was a meatball and Avi nearly whiffed.

Jose Abreu is one of the smartest situational hitters I've seen. Not nearly the most talented, but man he knows how to drive in runs.

lol, nice throw jackass.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 7, 2017 -> 03:01 PM) The point is that we can't assess these draft picks until much further down the road... Look at Tim Beckham vs. Gordon Beckham in 2008. Raw high schooler vs. a player already near his ceiling. Then, a lot of times, it's pure luck, like Kolek and Aiken going before Rodon. Can we credit the scouting department for that one? Then all of a sudden, Schwarber became a case of a brilliant overdraft at 4, and yet now Avi Garcia looks like potentially the better player. Things are constantly shifting...a year ago, Trayce Thompson was a "feather in the cap" for developing high ceiling, athletically gifted HS players. Today, not so much. We can go around and around in circles about not drafting Trout, or why we took Mitchell instead...or redrafting Benintendi/Fulmer/Happ, but that's always the case in baseball. In the end, you have to be right more often than not, let's say your difference between good and great GM's is 60% vs. 40-45% decision success rates. The Astros get brought up as an example of blowing some calls (Bryant vs. Appel, the Aiken negotiations), but all their other under the radar moves have more than covered for that. Just like the Cubs more often that not (Soler...perhaps Schwarber and Russell) have been pretty good with nailing hitting prospects, at least two standard deviations ahead of the rest of the league or better. You put together a really nice post than just throw that line in there and it ruins it all. A standard deviation from what? The average WAR from any given draft? Come on, that's going to be very hard to calculate to any meaningful accuracy given all the variables.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jun 7, 2017 -> 09:42 AM) I wish I knew what you are saying. Just posting Fangraphs stuff tells me nothing about how you feel. Take for example the exceedingly good luck on ground balls. The last few games where where he got his BA back into the .330's. He hit some lasers on the ground. So hard they whizzed by the fielders. Also his hustle and speed has earned him more than his fair share of infield hits. Is that lucky? Perhaps somewhat catching fielders unaware to just how fast he is getting down the line. Maybe they will be more awake for Avi's hustle next time. Avi got a double on a grounder that went to the 3rd baseman's left. That's right, in the hole between 3rd and short . It was hit so fast the left fielder ran it down near the warning track and Avi easily made it to 2nd . Fangraphs is fine for telling you things about stats but they don't look at every individual AB like I do. There has to be a balance between what the stats say and what you actually see the player do. Eh, Fangraphs totally buried the lede on their blurb about Avi, the key part was this: Gee, you think? Also, the article was only focusing on hitting. Importantly, Avi has also improved his defense and baserunning. Avi has quietly become a -5 ish runs in RF, not -12ish. He's also become a net positive on the basepaths, with this year being by far his best, as he's on pace to be + 2 runs on the bases. You add it all up and he's about 1 WAR better just on defense and baserunning. That lowers the production he needs at the plate to be a solid everday player into the 115 wRC+ range, which so far he's easily surpassing. He's been lucky on some ground balls, he's also improved his skill set to the point where when the luck turns, he still can be a productive everyday player. That was not the case entering this year.

Fun fact of the day: Yolmer Sanchez is currently 13th among MLB 2B with 1.0 fWAR. Carlos Baez is 30th, with .4 fWAR. Yolmer is on "on pace" for a 3 fWAR season. Which would easily be the best season from a White Sox 2B since...2009 when Gordon Beckham produced 2.3 fWAR in 430PA.

No team has been able to consistently "out draft the draft". That doesn't mean that scouting isn't important but that scouting is only a component of any success a team has in the draft. I'd say as far as the variables go it's probably 1) draft position, 2) player development, 3) scouting. With player dev and scouting interacting with each other (if your player development team thinks the hitch in the swing the scout worries about can be overcome...) and in theory helping each other. I think it's fairly obvious the Sox have much better player development and scouting with pitchers. That said, recently some position players have developed nicely, including TA and Yolmer. I always post that expected WAR chart from the draft and the big takeway is how big a difference there is in expected WAR from say pick #2 to pick #7, but how little there is say in pick #12 and pick #19. If you're going to suck for a star in the draft, you want to really suck and get into the top 3. At that point you almost can't help but screw it up.

QUOTE (2005thxfrthmmrs @ Jun 7, 2017 -> 08:34 AM) Basabe has very similar BB and K numbers has Moncada. Basebe - 188 AB 24 BB 57K Moncada - 183 AB 24 BB 57K Difference is quality of contact.

Its not really his swing mechanics that bother me but his insane k rate and mediocre college production, at least for a top pick. He does certainly come with a low floor.

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Jun 6, 2017 -> 10:19 PM) What did Sanchez's home run hit? I saw the replay several times and still can't tell. I swear that on replay it didn't hit anything, the poor lighting and crazy curve on the ball just confused their CF. I don't personally see it hit anything. The key is to only watch the ball. edit: ya know what? I think it did hit something, this is like the zapruder film. Need a high res slo mo.

It was a good day for trade value! Sanchez and Avi are developing into long term pieces and Todd and Q upped their stock value. Good day, despite the win