chitownsportsfan

Ron Howard helped create Arrested Development. That gets him a spring training look in and of itself.

I believe NWA started the Sox cap trend back in the late 80's early 90's. It's continued ever since.

I believe Dr. Dre popularized the Sox 'tilted brim look circa 1992. No doubt the Sox baseball cap (and baseball caps in general) have a certain popularity among the hip-hop generation--that is great.

A major upgrade no doubt. It's for that reason Balta that I'm not predicting doom and gloom this season--I'm predicting playoffs. I really think the offense will pickup the rest of the things that can and will go wrong.

As Omar from HBO's The Wire would say, "oh indeed". (Sorry obscure reference--but a good one IMO) If there is one reason to think the Sox will win more than 99 games this season, it's the offense. Throw PECOTA out the window, I think their Sox prejections are mostly junk. I'm not a big fan of BP in general, but that is for another day... Uribe, Crede, Iguchi, and BA will almost certainly improve as a group. Thome/Gload will improve the DH spot massively barring injury. (which is looking unlikely given the suddenly statue like Thome) I expect AJ to be about the same: sacrificing contact for power. I expect Pods to be about the same: dead average for his career. I expect Dye to perform about the same, and I expect Kong to have a slightly "worse" year. I am most optimisic about the offense this season. Say we score 50 more runs--will that make up for losses other places? Hopefully.

More good points Balta, I'm glad you're around on a Friday night to debate baseball with me--lol. I think however that in the grand sabermetricaly aligned scheme of things in my head that those things that went wrong cost relatively few wins compared to those things that went right. I agree however that the Sox had some things go badly, which will likely go right this year. The biggest thing to me that sabermetricians forget, and which you mentioned is the freaking abysmal play of Timo Perez. I mean, dude got 180 AB? I almost feel sorry for the White Sox, then I think of Neifi Perez, and how my pain pales in comparison. However, an improved bench is a reason the homer and sabermetric side of me sees nothing to argue with as a reason for optimism. Will an improved bench make of up a near certain regression from the bullpen? That remains to be seen.

Yea, and some people think AK isn't a good poker hand because they lost to AA one time. No, seriously, you make excellent points Felix, and I agree completely with you: people think everything that went right last year will go right again this year, and then some more still will go right for the cherry on top. Reality is that maybe 1/2 of went right last year will go right again. Will the bullpen have journeymen like Politte and Hermanson post unreal ERA's? Probably not. Will the starting pitching have a remarkable run of career years and good healthy? Probably not. Will the Sox be so good in 1 run games? Probably not. And even given all those things going wrong, this is still a 90+ win team. I mean, that is the dream of every team in baseball. I guarantee that every team outside of maybe the Oakland and NY would switch rosters straight up with the Sox. However, prediciting 100+ is a bit much for me. It's freaking hard to win 100 games, and everything that went right for the Sox last year, (everything you listed) will have to happen again--and then some. It doesn't make any sense to think like that, at least in my opinion. Sure the Sox got Thome and Vasquez, but given normal health and a few more 1-run losses and blown leads by the bullpen, things will even out.

Ah, back to reality. Do some of you guys realize how hard it is to win 100+ games? As good as the Sox were in both halves of the season last year they still only managed 99 games--that was with great health, amazing pitching, and a league average offense. 95 wins would be great for this club, for any club in MLB. I'm predicting 93 and a playoff berth.

This crazy talk about BA not being the starting CF if he hits .188 until the middle of may should stop now. He's not a high average hitter. Never will be. And wasn't Jermaine Dye struggling against the mendoza line in mid May last year? The point is that it's a small sample size, too small to get a judge on how BA is going to perform over the course of the season. Plus, who do the Sox have other than BA to play CF? Mackowiak? Pods? No and no. Mackowiak won't hit much any better than BA, and his defense will be much worse. Pods' defense will be worse than BA's, and then who plays LF? Sweeney will never play CF in MLB, at least not for a team that has a league average player out there. He hasn't even played above the AA level yet, and he hits 3 homers off some scrubs in 80 degree thin air and he's ready for a starting gig over BA, Dye, and Pods? Get real. He's a gifted prospect, for him to be so far along at 21 is a good sign, but it doesn't make up for the fact that he struggled with power at AA last year. Injuries played a large role, so why not let him get some real confidence this year in AAA or AA when he's healthy? The abritration clock is a great point, I believe Kalapse made it first (things get fuzzy through 7 pages in one sitting), and why waste options and cheap years for Sweeney so he can sit on the bench 99% of the time? BA is the starting CF, and will be the whole season barring a total collapse or an injury. That's the reality of the situation for the Sox. Sure, I'd like a stud in CF, but the Sox have studs elsewheres that allow below average offense from CF. Defense is almost always there, and as long as he plays a good CF, he will and he should be out there.

Like others have said, let Sweeney go back to AA and be an everyday play. There is no reason to rush anything with Dye, Pods, Owens, and BA already logjammed in front of him. If he tears it up at AA, then the Sox have some options for 2007. The Sox still have a glut of higher level outfield prospects even after trading Chris Young and Jeremy Reed. Ideally for me would be to have every player, Pods, Dye, Anderson, Sweeney, and Owens play well enough this year to make trading a guy like Sweeney for something the Sox need more than outfielders, like pitching and infield prospects, a real possibility. Sweeney is still a very young 21 and breaking him into the big leagues at 22 in 2007 would be awesome, provided the Sox clear some room in front of him and he puts up great numbers in AA/AAA this year.

Mackowiak, like was already stated, is not a everyday major league CF. He's an extremely versatile super sub that has a respectable career ops+ of 92. He'll hurt you as an everyday CF, but help tremendously as an emergency fill-in and super sub. BA projects as above average defensively, and average offensively. Yes, he's going to strikout plenty. Yes, he's going to struggle at times. Yes, he'll struggle to hit .260--but he has good pop and draws a few walks too. He's a good bet to beat Arow's OPS from last year while providing slightly inferior defense. He's dirt cheap and can be an asset to the Sox for the next 5 years easily. Everyone should be happy that KW made a solid if unspectacular draft pick that has come to fruition. Go ask Oakland or the Braves how playing their good young players that were dirt cheap and ready to play has worked out. More often than not, going with youth is scary but necessary to remain competitive for everyone other than the Yankees and Red Sox.

None Taken. Yes, that's why I explicity said that Uribe can be a very valuable player despite being mediocre offensively because he plays the hardest posisition in the game well, + 25 runs by some metrics. Statheads don't care about defense much at 1B, LF, and RF--neither do scouts. This is the first thing you learn in little league: bad players to RF and LF, good players to SS, CF, and 2B--because those are far and away the 3 most important, with SS clearly the most important. OPS is a very simple stat that correlates very well with actual runs produced. It's a powerful measure of a players offensive worth. SS/2B with OPS+ of 85 are a dime a dozen. It was a good trade because the Sox get depth and a player they needed, however, it's not really a "fleecing". Both teams got rid of players they didn't need, both those players are largely inconsequential to either teams chances of success. It was a minor trade with little risk, a little more reward--for both teams.

Ok, well none of those guys is even on the team. He is probably "replacing" Gload. It's not a bad trade, it helps the team slightly. Maybe it will WARP wise translate into 1 more win on the season. The value for me in the trade is injury protection for Urbie and Gooch. In that sense it was a very smart move. And yes, I do think "eh" about AJ and Pods. AJ plays catcher, so it's excusable, but Pods plays a corner outfield. Pods, in my mind, is an average player at the position, hence "eh". I don't care about Uribe's offense as much because he plays short and he's + about 25 runs there.

Yea, a career OPS+ of 85. Another "eh" trade.

And Borchard. Gload only plays one position, and its already taken care of. He is worthless to this team.

I think this signals the death knell for Gload or Borchard, if it wasn't ringing already, it's loud and clear now.

King Felix Starts Hot This guy was the youngest player to play in MLB during 2005, and only posted an ERA+ of 165. His K/9 was 8.22. His K/W was 3.34. His WHIP was .996. Granted he only pitched 84.3 innings--but this guy is a stud, at 19--those numbers? Unreal. At age 21, Pedro Martinez was signifanctly worse in every statistical category except K/9, and it wasn't be that much. What Pedro has done in the "live player" ERA is also unreal, and he has to be one of the top 5 greatest pichers of all time, with longevity the only thing holding him back from possibly being the best of all time. Felix is already better than Pedro, with more pitches, at an age two years younger. Look at Dwight Gooden's age 20 season, and look at his K/9, K/B, and WHIP stacks up to Felix's. Felix could win the Cy Young this year, he's that good. He's a once in a generation prospect. The only thing stopping him from becoming an all time great would be arm trouble or drugs. It could happen, pitching is a violent motion on the arm and mind, as we all know. However, if it doesn't, Felix is on his way to Cooperstown. There is not one 19 year old in baseball in 2006 that even looks like a potential GOAT, which is why people like myself get a bit excited about his prospects. He could be the "Lebron James" of baseball. Another comparison: Roger Clemens didn't post a WHIP even close to under 1.00 until he was 23. Felix just did it at age 19.

I wonder if any other ex-player GM's head to weight room during games...The KW/Beane similarities keep coming.

Exactly. KW and BB are two of the most similiar GM's in the game today. They have differences sure, but they have very similiar philosophies on team construction. Good post Kevhead. Does KW use sabermetrics? Yes. Does KW consider other things like leadership and and attitude: Yes. Is sabermetrics perfect: No. The article is a series of "straw man" arguments about "Moneyball". It's stupid and a child could see through the logic. I wonder if the author has even read "Moneyball". It's like he got the cliff's notes version from Joe Morgan: Billy Beane only cares about OBP. No he doesn't. Nobody in sabermetrics does. It's a useful stat sure, more useful than average, but it's not the holy grail of how Beane or sabermetricians judge a player and build a team. I guarantee you Beane cares more about OPS or the many other offensive formulas that more accuractly judge a players worth.

What a terrible argument. The whole premise is that "Moneyball" doesn't work and that the Sox won because they didn't use "Moneyball". "Moneyball" isn't sabermetrics, I really wish writers would realize that. "Moneyball" is about maximizing market inefficiencies--and sabermetrics is just one component of that stragegy. Like Kennie said about Frank, "look it up"--ok, I will: Average Wins Last 4 Seasons for A's and Sox (Kenny Williams "Era"): Sox: 86.4 A's: 96 How does this guy even have a job? Maybe it's just insanely possible that both Kenny Williams and Billy Beane are good GM's. Maybe by one objective measure (w/l) you could say Beane is better. Maybe be another one you could say (rings) that KW is the better GM. This is crap and the Washington Post should fire this guy for ignorance.

Arod and King Felix, in that order. Felix is focking amazing, I'd be surprised if he doesn't have a Dwight Gooden like season. For a 19 year old, he's got nasty stuff and control. If the Mariner are smart, they'll ride him for 200+ every year until he hits arbitration. Arod because he's good for 600 PA's every year and because he hits focking unreal for a + defensive SS, cya Uribe.

Yea, Perry clearly didn't do much research for this preview piece, and although I agree with his sabermetric analysis often, it's clear that he's a lazy writer who is focusing more on book signings than being informed. He thinks Ben Grieve is going to make the team out of spring training? As GOB would say: COME ON!

I'll bust out the inevitable "brokeback school of scouting" comment.

I love Firefox. I also couldn't get in until I tried this evening around 8pm EST. Good to see that some of our fellow Soxtalkers use the 'Fox.

That pretty much sums up the difference in browers. Firefox is the better browser, I'm sure you IE people are hard headed, hell I was too before switching. Firefox and tabs and it's mundo pop-up blocker will have you hooked in 3 days--give it 3 days I swear you'll love it. Admins: Any chance of getting the page views broken down by broswer? I hope Firefox and Opera are up into the 30% range as a whole. IE is such a POS, IMO at least--and I used IE forever.