chitownsportsfan

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 05:21 PM) As I said, he was replacement level in 2016, his next worse season was 2015, trending downward, then 2017 age 33 season highest WAR in 7 years, best k-rate for a full season in 8 years. Age 34 projections have him very similar to 2016, replacement level. He gave up 1 homer last year. Previously HR had become a problem. That could rear it's ugly head in his new home park. If the White Sox were actually trying to win, the optimism wouldn't be so great, despite all these peripherals. Huh? Steamer has him at .5 fWAR. For a quick and dirty comp Kahnle is projected at .7 fWAR. Soria is a quality MLB reliever. It's really not good practice to use year by year WAR totals for relievers. The sample is too small. Just look at totals and projections.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jan 5, 2018 -> 02:46 PM) Soria was worth 1.1 bWAR and 1.7(!) fWAR last year. A 1 WAR season is a good season for a reliever. A 2 WAR season is an amazing season for a reliever. As the above numbers suggest (bWAR is more reliant on stats that tell on field results, while fWAR relies more on peripherals and predictive stats), Soria pitched better than his results suggested, and even his results made for a good season for a reliever. He's going into his age 34 season, and effectively has 2 years of control. If he pitches well, he should bring a quality return in July should the Sox decide to move him. If he pitches poorly, they're not required to keep him beyond this year. The best part is Hahn got him for nothing. Peter went to LAD for Avilan. I don't understand how anyone could be unhappy about any part of this trade, and I liked Peter. Yea he's a good reliever that ran into some bad luck. This is a great move.

Good move. Hahn is doing a helluva job on trades lately.

Great thread. Would read again, if only to see SS2K get riled up with his confirmation bias regarding "rushing" the rebuild. Just teasing buddy. Happy new year Sox fans. Days are getting longer.

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jan 3, 2018 -> 09:32 PM) Looks good and trim, sweet beard too. Not claiming to be an expert... but shouldn't those hands still be moving a little less? I was always taught to keep the hands back and load up sooner. Just seems like he'd be easy to get off balance with all of those moving parts in his swing. No I agree his upper body is "noisy" as they say. I think the Sox might work with him some this winter on getting his hands a little closer to where they end up, maybe via a timing mechanism. His weight transfer is beautiful however and you can see the power from his hips.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 3, 2018 -> 05:41 PM) Elaborating on this is merkin: https://www.mlb.com/news/white-sox-prospect...6?tid=151437456 I have to say I didn't read that and feel that great about Sheets. Isn't Sheets' dad an former MLBer and his coach in HS? I don't know if that's a point in his favor or not. Seems like he's had good coaching which might result in a lower ceiling. Or maybe his dad's coaching was holding him back. Or maybe it's neither or somewhere in between. Christ I'm sick of January already.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 3, 2018 -> 02:41 PM) Yeah I don't think anyone but sbnation has that local structure relying on free contributors. I think BP ran out that same sort of model. According to SB Nation's job listing for SSS it's a contract position as the "lead" blogger. I'm not sure how hours are billed but it's probably capped at something fairly low. I don't think you can make a living as a SB Nation lead blogger unless you've got alt revenue coming in or are independently wealthy. I just don't see how SB Nation holds on long term without charging for content. The ad revenue isn't enough, obviously.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 3, 2018 -> 11:09 AM) If it works for him sure, but I'm not sure I like how much his head position changes during the loading before the swing. Looks like a pretty long, complicated swing IMO. Easy to see why he generates such power however and great overall balance. I wonder if the Sox will change some things with him this winter at their swing camp.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 3, 2018 -> 01:25 AM) He'll be as ripped as Kopech by March. We're gonna have to build a bigger field for these guys.

He's in the best shape of his life...in January? But where's he gonna be in March?

Hopefully this results in more quality Sox coverage online, not less. There's a chance for someone a bit younger, with maybe a bit more of an unique vision to take over SSS. Vox is apparently an awful employer so it will probably need to mostly be a labor of love. Jim does journalism for a living so I'm sure at a certain point he figured branding his own site again would result in more revenue and satisfaction for him long term.

Not a big Jim fan but this is a big blow for SSS, obviously.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 05:30 PM) Can I find 15 WAR by 2019 or 2018? 2018 I agree with your skepticism, I just want a baseline to look at because this does feel like something > a 65 win team right now, based on what we saw last August. When we swap in 3s for Kopech and Jiminez and 5 for Machado, plus maybe get more from a developed DH spot? 2019 I can totally see that level of a boost. For various reasons I think this is a 75 win team not a 65 win team. I'm skeptical that Jose Abreu isn't going to crack 3 WAR and I'm also skeptical that Avi is going to turn back into a 1 WAR pumpkin. I think Moncada is going to put up 3-5 WAR as well and that Yolmer is closer to a 3 WAR true talent than 1 WAR. The pitching side of things, with probably a veteran flyer being added in spring and maybe Kopech and Hansen coming up in late summer and Rodon's status up in the air -- I have no idea. The bullpen blowing high leverage situations isn't going to reflect too much on WAR but it will have a bad effect on winning. And the pen IS going to be awful. No doubt about that, at least as we sit here today in late December. I'm ready to start spring training. The last two weeks of Dec and the month of January are always the worst imo. Just let us get to February 1st and then I can stop staring out the window, or maybe I still am but I can see the snow melting and the sun getting higher in the sky.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 05:06 PM) I count 17 WAR in that projection am I right? Can someone who has seen how these turn out give that in terms of a "Projected record"? If this team does that...they're likely what, a 55 win team? So that's our starting point and anything beyond that is more improvement than expected? Like a 65 win team. Can you find 15 WAR somewhere that ZIPS doesn't see? To get the Sox to 80 and ready to compete in 2019? Probably the biggest delta I see is between the IF projections and my own expectations. ZIPS sees 6.9 WAR between Yolmer, Jose, Yoan and Timmy. I could see that group putting up 10-12. It's going to take some improvement that ZIPS doesn't see from the young guys but hey that's why they play the games.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 04:44 PM) Bad. Very very bad. Yea it looks pretty brutal. That said, I'm taking the over on a lot of those wRC+ projections.

I really can't stand Carson Cistulli but the projections are thankfully free of his words: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-zips-p...cago-white-sox/

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 03:59 PM) I think the only league right now where they're anywhere close to risking all the gains of the last 10 years via labor issues is the NFL. Everyone in baseball is still getting rich. Owners, players both. Just an interesting trend to see teams ponying up for fewer years to avoid the long term risk. Yea but the players aren't seeing enough of the profits: Since 1995, MLB’s overall league revenues have increased nearly 650%, going from around $1.4 billion to over $9 billion in 2014. During that same time period, though, MLB payrolls have only increased by around 378%, from roughly $925 million in 1995 to just under $3.5 billion last year. We'll see if the union can remain united enough to commit to a strike. Nobody wants to kill the golden goose but if I'm a MLBPA analyst I'm seeing worrying trends.

Free content in the middle of winter! http://www.baseballhq.com/node/6027?org=CHW&year=2018

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 29, 2017 -> 03:21 PM) That's rather fascinating. I think we are headed towards a strike.

QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Dec 28, 2017 -> 03:22 PM) I hope they do a full investigation and I hope MLB takes a strong stance against this behavior. From the way she described it almost seems like they had a clubhouse bet on who could f*** her first. The 1st base coaching hitting on her is also off putting given that it's a workplace environment for both.

What a POS. Always is about power in these situations. Rich athlete thinks because he's rich and an athlete no woman can turn him down. The ironic thing is that most of these guys pull more dime pieces in one month than most of us will in a lifetime and yet that's not enough. This sounds so much like the Roethlisberger stories. I think his agent has some explaining to do as well. Sounds like his agent was the wingman for this disgusting behavior.

Wow, ZIPZ sees 4 war for Yelich and 1.9 for Eaton. Selling Eaton after that magical 6 WAR season was a stroke of genius. He'll be lucky to put a 4 WAR season before he retires.

Oh noes! They are going to "pull him off the market"! What great binary thinking they display over there in Bmore. No s*** nobody is going to offer you much for a rental that probably near 2/3 of clubs can't even come close to resigning. If they are hell bent on trading him then revisit it at the deadline they will have more leverage.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 17, 2017 -> 01:44 AM) https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/12/al-r...do-red-sox.html No s*** clearly you left out the subtext: Eloy was offered

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 15, 2017 -> 11:16 PM) Yeah, it's a tough one when its a midsubstance tear. It's like trying to tie two pieces of spaghetti together. The internal augmentation device is needed to hold it together while it heals. He should be able to play again but it is a tough one and he'll probably miss a good chunk of this year. edit: I didn't explain the internal augmentation device. It will be a type of synthetic substance such as gortex or the kevlar. They will weave it through the tendon to add stability to the structure as it won't be as strong as it can be for about 18 months. He'll probably play earlier than that but tendon (and most tissues) take about that long to achieve full tensile strength. informative post, thanks -- crazy what they can do! God bless my surgeon. Hopefully he can return to baseball and have a decent career.