chitownsportsfan

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 10:24 PM) They're not going to do that...it would be idiotic to guarantee his salary and then dump him. They didn't do it with Beckham and DeAza, Hahn's not going to start now. If they were content to pay a back-up/platoon player that much last year, it's not going to change in 2015... thing is they are only on the hook for $750k (aka chicken scratch in today's revenue environment) if they cut him before spring. worst case they eat the money, not a big deal.

QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 05:04 PM) Seeing what Rios and other 1 WAR players make in free agency, i just honestly cant believe some team isnt willing to take a chance on the remaining DV upside. He's not old. For sure, someone has to be willing to give up an A ball arm for him. Maybe when the dust settles on the FA market in late Jan. He could go to an NL team like the Padres or Pirates imo.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 04:11 PM) If Viciedo played catcher, this conversation wouldn't be happening. bingo. This isn't the sillyball era but if you're -10 runs below average in LF you sure as s*** better slash 270/330/450. Tank didn't even come close to that last year. His power does not make up for his lack of contact and OBP, not to even mention his defense. Tank sucks, he's only useful to a team rebuilding or looking to add a .5 WAR player to their bench that has a bit of upside. Those teams exists, but it's not an easy fit.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 10:14 PM) Definitely. I like a lot of the voices there, but it's way too cliquish/groupthinkey. Yep. It's why I changed back over to Soxtalk last year as my primary Sox related hangout.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 09:33 PM) Expect Dayan Viciedo to be traded. Hahn to @CSNChicago: "In all probability it will be another club that sees him in a greater role." https://twitter.com/ChuckGarfien/status/545026112498040833 Hahn continued: "and usually those things have a way of working themselves out." https://twitter.com/ChuckGarfien/status/545026197357228034 Rick Hahn is still a busy guy. Just before our interview today he got a call about a player. https://twitter.com/ChuckGarfien/status/545026494779518976 Yep those are the quotes I was referring to earlier. All the bed wetting on SSS about tendering Viciedo was so stupid. And fwiw I called them out at the time. This place was much more balanced.

QUOTE (daggins @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 08:06 PM) Crasnick is the only guy who tweeted this, right? Couple other mariners sources are saying (vaguely) that they are kicking the tires on a lot of different outfielders. Jack Z said today that he'd be adding "depth" mostly at this point so depending on what you consider depth he might be talking a smaller move like bringing in Viciedo or signing someone like Aoki. Hard to say but Hahn seems pretty certain from what I've gathered that they can move Viciedo for something, even if it's not to the Ms.

Well, he can't be any worse than Paulino.

I like a good deep dish on a rare occasion but as a ex-new yorker the pizza there is unreal. Literally not a bad slice in the city. One of things I miss the most out here in Seattle is good pizza.

No, next question.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 01:22 PM) You mean you have less patience. most people still hvae the patience as he missed most of last year. I haven't heard anyone else mention it. no kidding, the kid suffered a very bad injury and came back and held his own and even showed off his improved sliding techniques. Avi is the least of my worries in 2015. Back end of rotation is way, way, way more dicey than a talented kid like Avi playing his first (knock on wood) full big league season.

QUOTE (Bigsoxhurt35 @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 01:16 PM) @TNT_Mariners: Early on, Melky Cabrera expressed desire not to sign with West Coast club. @Enrique_Rojas1 reports that was a factor in choosing CWS offer. Flights back to the DR from the West Coast are just a nightmare I'm sure. Not quite as easy as from NYC/East but Chicago is much easier (4 hours closer) than SF/LA/SEA

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 12:47 PM) Sigh, was really hoping he'd rate out as average. He's a former CF that will now be playing in the very narrow LF of US Cellular. He's fairly athletic and is only 30. He's going to seem like prime Andruw Jones compared to Tank. He's not a great defender, but he's going to save 5-10 runs just by not being Dayan Viciedo.

RICK HAHN STOP READING MY POSTS!!!

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 14, 2014 -> 12:46 AM) I understand the concept of who it's supposed to be it's just that it is so vague that it could be any level our Jordan Danks is probably different than a roster guy from the Twins. It makes more sense if they can say the average MLB regular is a 2 WAR player. Therefore, if you had an average player at every position you should theoretically finish 20 games ahead of a team with 4 A players which it seems you are trying to describe. You don't though. Here, let's try again: http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml

Haha, cool post Finn. Yea you'd think any pro ball player could play a decent LF after 1000 or so fungoes in spring. apparently not given Viciedo's problems! There aren't a lot of good options. I'm not completely sold on Melky but I continue to think he's the best option if he'll sign for 4 years at ~15 million AAV (averaged salary per year).

I've been looking at Ethier -- was he injured last year or something because his batted ball data is a mess. 51% GBs and 5.6% HR per FB on the odd chance he didn't kill a worm? He just screams "old" IMO. Only .7 fWAR last year and his wRC+ sunk to just 98. He's basically a good player that is now old. Will he bounce back into an average player? I have no idea but Melky costs only money. If the Dodgers want to trade him for a bag of balls and include cash then OK, let's deal, but paying anything of actual value (aka any prospect in the top 20) seems a huge overpay. His contract is f***ing awful. Through '17 at an AAV of 17 million with a vesting option for '18 if he hits 550 PA. No, f*** it, god no. Not unless the Dodgers sent over 40 million, and usually the commish doesn't look too kindly on those deals.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Dec 13, 2014 -> 08:42 PM) A douche undoubtedly, but could the apparent Rodon negotiation olive branch (I'm calling it an olive branch because SB/CR seemed to get everything they could have hoped for, with little leverage, imo), possibly be a bridge to a Harper having interest in the Palehose? Sure, he's a tool, but he'd be OUR tool. Change of scenery, mellow dude like RV might do him good. Not a chance.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Dec 13, 2014 -> 07:21 PM) What is the difference between league average and a replacement level players? An "average starter" is usually considered around 2 WAR. A replacement player is often considered to be an abstraction but in reality it's concrete and important: it's a guy you could grab off a AAA team at any time. Think Josh Phegley, Jordan Danks, Rienzo, guys like that. Not saying that's all they ever will be, but that's all they are currently. This is a good primer on it: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

QUOTE (BigFinn @ Dec 13, 2014 -> 06:25 PM) I've got a feeling that Billy Beane looks at Josh Phegley and sees Josh Donaldson II. Both started their professional careers as catchers. Both were better hitters than receivers. I wouldn't be surprised if Beane gives Phegley a third baseman's mitt, sends Phegley to AAA Nashville, tells him he'll be up in a few months, and sells off Brett Lawrie to the highest bidder come the July 31 trade deadline. Phegley could come up later this summer and surprise quite a few people. Still and all, the Sox one year of Samardzija, a top 15 pitcher MLB pitcher, and a window of opportunity to sign him from now until next November. As for signing Melky Cabrera, there is a theory that if you're going to make a commitment to one free agent attached to a compensation pick, you might as well go all in. The Cubs did that in the 2005-6 off-season (the 2006 draft was the year that they picked Samardzija in the 5th round and signed him to a first round contract). The Cubs gave up their 2nd round pick when they signed Bobby Howry (Cleveland got that pick). They gave up their 3rd round pick when they signed Scott Eyre (this sounds like they wanted to put the White Sox 2000 bullpen back together!)(San Francisco got that pick). They gave up their 4th round pick when they signed Jacque Jones (the Twinkies got that pick). Those were the days before picks had slotted monetary values, and teams were faced with penalties for exceeding their overall amateur draft spending. So the Cubs could afford to bundle the money they would have spent on those picks and offer Samardzija 1st round money. Every time the Sox sign a free agent with a compensation pick attached, like Melky Cabrera, we lose the draft pick and the slotted money. But we would still get Melky Cabrera. My concern about Cabrera is how dependent is he on the use of PEDs to be a successful player? He was caught using in 2012. If you pull out his 2012 numbers from his career stats, his slash line is .279/.330/.404. That looks like a league average ballplayer to me. Four years at $14M per year is a lot of money for league average production. Nori Aoki has just about the same level of production without the PED suspicions, the high-price/long-length contract, and the loss of the draft choice. But I don't know who else is out there. Also, you know the 2005 team had a lot of "league average ballplayers", right? You need some to go along with the stars. What the Sox currently have is a replacement level LF. An average LF would be a huge upgrade.

QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Dec 13, 2014 -> 02:32 PM) I'm pretty sure they call US Cellular, Coors East. I'll take my chances that he will produce here. US Cellular is a good offensive environment but it's nothing like Coors. I'd be worried about CarGo coming to a tougher league and a much tougher park. Cool link here that shows exactly how it would affect him: http://www.baseballmonster.com/MLBParkFactors.aspx

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 13, 2014 -> 12:58 AM) The draft pick doesn't worry me nearly as much as his Terrible, nearly Viciedo bad 2013. Well was in 88 game sample obviously brought it upon himself. Hell maybe he even knew he was gonna get the guillotine and was mentally checked out. Unlike Tank, Melky has a track record of being average or better. It's certainly a risk anytime you sign an average player entering his decline, but I think it's a risk the Sox have to take. They have a lot of great contracts on this team, MLB revenue has reached stupid levels, spend the money. Even if it doesn't work out it's not crippling.

Get it done. This is the 2 WAR Chicago needs to really push into serious contention without breakout years from guys like Sanchez or Garcia or even regression from Alexei and Abreu. A 3rd round pick is nothing. The expected WAR is around .2 for a career. Not much out there at that point without luck.

Cespedes isn't some great prize. Especially when you consider that Comerica is gonna knock down that ISO, and as powerful of hitter as he is, he doesn't have elite power and his contact and OBP tools are below average. His OBP last season was .301 FFS. and of course he's a rental that wont' get a qualifying offer most likely. It's a fair trade but Detroit just thinned out their rotation to add 1.5 WAR in LF (they already had the 1 to 2 WAR Davis) when in reality they probably should have just signed Melky and stuck him in LF. That would have cost only money. Detroit is in WIN f***ING NOW MODE. This move doesn't move their needle at all in '15, IMO it moves it back from probably 88 to 86 or 87 wins. The Simon trade moved it back another .5 win. This division is WIDE OPEN!

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Dec 12, 2014 -> 01:05 PM) If you want to look at it glass half full, Porcello seems like he's been around forever, but he was a top 20 prospect years ago, reached the majors at 20 years old and is only just turning 26. Last year was the first year he finally put up a shiny ERA, but he's been pretty good in FIP and WAR for a few years now. I think he has finally put it together and will be a solid #3 or #2 starter from here on out. And for the record Cespedes is also a free agent at the end of the year for the Tigers. Wilson is the definition of a AAAA reliever, whose ERA is an outlier according to FIP. The other kid they got in the deal wouldn't even see the big leagues for another 4 years or so, if he doesn't fall apart between now and then. I don't think Detroit did bad, but I like the trade better for Red Sox since they struck out on the big names pitchers, but was able to trade from an area of surplus to fill their needs, while getting good value in return. good post.

Gun to my head I would do Ackley for dayan straight up. Viciedos adventures in left put stress and pressure on the stud top of rotation and closer guys they now have. At least Ackley will be avg or better in left. Last thing we need is a viciedo "triple" pissing off sale and leading to over exertion, to give an example. Viciedos errors are the most egregious frustrating types for both the staff and fans.