Balta1701

A guide to how the debate may go.

Illegals Love Living Equally Gaudy American Life Styles That must be an NL lineup, I only see 8 people. Who's on the mound?

On Trey Hillman running Gil Meche's arm into th e ground.

QUOTE (flavum @ May 11, 2010 -> 03:52 PM) I thought the Sox would want to load up on lefties against the Twins. I thought that made more sense. Now Floyd and Peavy will be starting a week between starts. In my opinion, you keep your top 4 on schedule, and push your 5th starter back. As we pointed out yesterday, D1 has actually had very limited success against the Twins, esp. against Mauer and Morneau. ERA over 5 against them career, similar numbers in 2009.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ May 11, 2010 -> 03:19 PM) The '05 Astros too. However, I think if we go back and looks at the playoff teams from the past ten seasons, I'd reckon 90% or more of them weren't playing this s***ty in May. I'd be happy with a 1/10 shot, if I thought my team was way-under-performing (which they are).

BS, is Williams in Charlotte or Chicago?

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ May 11, 2010 -> 02:57 PM) Another great investment. Perhaps we can sign him to an extension like Teahen's. Really, you're going to complain about guys on minor league deals going to Charlotte?

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ May 11, 2010 -> 02:51 PM) Why? Randy Williams, thats why Embree had a 5.84 ERA in Colorado last year in 24 innings. Lefties put up a nearly .900 OPS against him. He was actually more effective against RHP than LHP. Out of that, I'll stick with Williams for now.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ May 11, 2010 -> 02:49 PM) And that's where I think the organization could really get in trouble, by standing pat while we are 6-9 games out through June, July, August. If they get to the point where they can hang while being 6-9 games out of it...that means a few things have actually gone right. They're not hanging with people if Quentin and Beckham and Pierre and Pierzynski and Ramirez continue hitting .200 or worse. Those guys continue hitting like Vizquel on a bad day, and they're not going to hang at a constant number of games back, they'll be 20 out by then.

QUOTE (jphat007 @ May 11, 2010 -> 02:42 PM) 8 games out in mid May is pretty close to out of the race already. Not very many teams come back from deficits like that. A very very small number of exceptions have, but that number is super small. They wouldn't have to finish off the comeback to still make it an interesting season.

No, and here's why. If this team falls completely out of the race early this season, it's a ticket sales killer.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ May 11, 2010 -> 02:24 PM) In that case, AJ nets you something, but not as much as I thought. For a team in contention, if they need a catcher, they'd be willing to give up a decent prospect for him, even just a half season of him. I'd bet on that. Jenks, well, it depends a lot on this month. If he looks good for the next month going into June, I think he nets you something as well - and that's better than the nothing you'd get at the end of the year, if you are out of it and looking to rebuild. Frankly, I'd be shocked if Jenks looks good through June, from what we've seen so far. And with Aj...one thing you have to think about, in addition to his salary...is that his "attitude" issues aren't exactly going to have GM's breaking down the door for him, even if he does start to hit at some point. That's got to limit the teams available. He's not going to platoon with Molina in S.F., for example. Anyway, with either of them, that's why I'd target A-ball level guys, rather than MLB ready guys, because if you get someone, maybe you teach them a cutter and they snap into something much more useful than wha t you thought when you made the deal.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ May 11, 2010 -> 02:20 PM) I'll say that Teahen and Kotsay get you nothing, Jenks gets you a prospect (and not a team's Top 10 prospect either), but AJP might net more. AJ has an option for 2011, correct? As far as I know, both from the sheet here and from Googling, no, AJ has no team option. He is $6.75 this year, and then a free agent this offseason. And if he continues hitting .200, you won't be getting anything if you offer him arbitration either. And you probably wouldn't want to. Jenks doesn't land you anything unless you're paying 80% of his contract right now, and even then, he'll get you a Brian Anderson level prospect.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ May 11, 2010 -> 02:05 PM) Trade Jenks and Teahan and Kotsay and maybe AJP and see what you mght be able to add. Trade away your strong nucleus and all you do is add inexperience to go with inexperience. Trading those guys gets you: essentially zero players back in return, and essentially zero salary relief. You can't trade garbage and expect to get something useful in return.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ May 11, 2010 -> 01:57 PM) So we trade our performers and keep those who don't perform? Not much sense in that Basically, if you want to correctly do a full rebuild, and the non-performers are young and inexpensive...yeah, that's exactly what you have to do.

Wake up Q.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 11, 2010 -> 11:23 AM) Balta, do you see any possible way out of this situation that's NOT going to cost us 20-30-40% of our season ticket base, not to mention decreased advertising revenues, tv and radio ratings, etc.? What is it? I think we just have to bite the bullet and hope we can make it back into contention in (hopefully) 2012 or at least 2013. 2 things. First...have an effective fire sale. Turn Konerko, Jones, and Putz into A-ball level pieces, 2 or 3 of which develop into major league starters (my recent example for how to do this is the Indians deal of Casey Blake to the Dodgers. The high level piece in that deal was Jon Meloan, guy with a high ERA but lots of strikeouts, who eventually wound up traded and DFA. The low level piece in that deal was Carlos Santana, who is now making beautiful music as the Indians number one prospect and probably the top catching prospect in the bigs (him or Posey). The effective fire sale also saves you a chunk of cash this season, which may offset the losses on this year's ticket sales. I'd also try to do Rios. Because that makes my second one possible: 2. Take some of the pieces you get from the effective fire sale and turn them into a major draw that you can suddenly re-sign because you cleared salary. That's the Fielder/Gonzalez part of the deal...suddenly, you cleared $15 million from your books this season and an extra $15 million next season, you've loaded up your minor leagues with assets you can both develop and trade, and you can bring up the guys that you currently have. The other way to do it would be to have Beckham and Quentin turn white hot starting tonight. I won't be holding my breath though.

I think the original post there is wrong. Alexei originally signed a 4 year deal, so he should still be under contract next year.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 11, 2010 -> 11:44 AM) And it is exactly how the regulating bodies want it. They have their own budgets, they have their own fiefdoms, and they have their own autonomy. Plus no one seems to care if they do anything anyway. But that's exactly how you guys want the regulatory system. Otherwise we'd get rid of the ridiculous "Regulator shopping" that the banks are allowed to do, where they all race to the bottom, find the OTS, and we're left with AIG and Washington Mutual declaring themselves to be "Thrifts".

QUOTE (Controlled Chaos @ May 11, 2010 -> 12:07 PM) Really?? I don't pretend to know all the restrictions...I'm sure others have parents that have gone through it and they can maybe explain it better, but things were pretty restrictive for my wife's Grandma. For her to come here from Italy she had to be sponsored by a citizen and she had to have proof of employment. She left her 3 kids in Italy with her husband while she came here alone to see if they can make a better life here. That was in 62...Her husband and the kids, including my mother in law, were able to come over in 64. The quota for Italians was 5,666 back then. Seems pretty restrictive to me. Right now, this is basically the case for immigration from Central and south american countries: even if you have a job lined up, there are no permanent Visas available, only temporary worker permits (and for those, you better be both very skilled and very lucky, because there's vastly more demand for H1B visas than there are of those). Your grandmother couldn't have gotten in unless the person who was sponsoring her was also her spouse. And even then, we're talking about years.

QUOTE (Soxy @ May 11, 2010 -> 10:58 AM) So, I went for a hike yesterday and the ticks were out of control! I hate ticks. I hate them so much. Does anyone have any good techniques for not getting ticks? I hate them. Sometimes they're just unavoidable in certain areas. DEET does sometimes work for me. But if you walk into the wrong brush...it's time for a tick check.

QUOTE (Y2HH @ May 11, 2010 -> 10:55 AM) My father fled Germany in the early 50's, depression ridden, and came to the US legally, painstakingly, and with no money. He made a life for himself and his family, and he did it 100%. He's an American citizen now, considers me and my brother Americans, and said he has no interest in returning to the country he fled. He embraced the American way in every aspect. And if people from Europe faced the same immigration restrictions that we've put on Mexicans...he'd have had to choose between not immigrating and immigrating illegally.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ May 11, 2010 -> 10:35 AM) So wait. We continue to pay Paulie's, AJ's, and Bobby's salaries next year when they're no longer here? No. Read what I said: So, we bring up our top spects Next year: D2, Viciedo, and Flowers. Pierre Goes to the bench. Rios and Peavy aren't dealt. Linebrink still here. In that case, we're still starting at $72 million committed with $3 million coming in from the Dodgers, before arbitration hearings for D1, Quentin, and TPain. D1 is probably a legitimate nearly $10 million arbitration case. Quentin...The 2008 version of Quentin only knows what he'll get, but that's a couple million for both of them, maybe even pushing >$5 million if he gets hot towards the end of the year. So we're starting off the offseason with a lineup including 3 rookies, Teahen at 3b, Beckham and Ramirez and Quentin still as potential gaping holes, with no DH, 4 starters (bring up Hudson for the 5th slot presumably), we've lost 2 of our RH arms in the bullpen and need to replace those (Jenks and Putz), and we don't have an obvious experienced closer, so either we're trying out a kid (Santos L. Halper) in that spot or we're going for one on the FA market. And Randy Williams is still our 2nd lefty. In other words, we're over $80 million on commitments, probably closer to $85 or even $90 once you count guys who are in at the minimum, and we're starting 3 rookies and 3 young-ish players all of whom are struggling this year. Mark Teahen is basically the guy in your lineup you have the most confidence in. Then you go out and spend $10 million on a legitimate DH, a couple million on bench guys, and a RH reliever, and that's all the room you have to maneuver. And oh, you've also lost 20% of your season ticket base. Have a nice day.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 11, 2010 -> 10:37 AM) Sure, all of the government agencies are making out like f***ing bandits for not providing a damned bit of safety to investors. Which is exactly how the people with the best lobbyists want things.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ May 11, 2010 -> 10:29 AM) I don't agree with this statement. You can keep Rios and make changes to 1B and catcher while tweaking your bullpen in the off season. IMO, no you can't. He's a big chunk of committed salary for next season first of all, which prevents you from being able to make changes to the other positions OTHER than bringing up your cheap rookies (Viciedo and Flowers), and if you're holding him rather than dealing him for youth, then you're missing out on whatever guys dealing him could bring into your system. If you hold Rios...you're bringing up Flowers and probably Viciedo to fill those holes, and you're bringing up rookies so there's every reason to expect them to struggle. You've then got the Quentin, Beckham, and Ramirez issues remaining potentially unsolved, and you've got no one to replace any of them if they don't snap out of it. And even though you're getting some salary savings by removing your expensive 1b, C, and Closer...you're still left with having to spend money on a DH and several new bullpen pieces possibly including a closer. At best, you're treading water with a sub-.500 team, and at worst, if your young guys struggle, you're into a full rebuilding mode without having cut any real salary.