Balta1701

Am I right that a team also can't offer a guy a QO 2 years in a row? So if Odorizzi accepted the QO, he'd hit free agency next year having banked $18 million and with no QO attached?

After the last few years, mid-level guys who are stuck on the FA market with qualifying offers haven't done well, especially if teams move on. If you were given the choice between Keuchel and Odorizzi, who would you pick? It's at least close right? Last year, Keuchel missed out on an offer, and wound up only being paid $13 million by the Braves.

There is absolutely no way in which I can imagine him signing with the Rays. That would be the most stunning thing of this offseason to me.

In some ways yes it is, because we do have some pitching depth. If, hypothetically, Lopez gets banished to the bullpen, rather than being a 5th starter - Lopez was a 2 WAR pitcher last year. That might not be great, but if you're spending $20 million a year to bring in a 4 WAR pitcher to replace him - you're spending an awful lot of money for that increase. Just for example, paying Stras and Lopez for $30 million gets you in STEAMER projections a comparable number of WAR to what $40 million gets you for Wheeler and Ryu, and now I have an extra $10 million to go for Grandal instead of Wieters or Martinez instead of Encarnacion in the given scenario.

The Brewers may not have had elite starting pitching but they had a bullpen way better than anything we're likely to have this season on paper barring some enormous breakouts. I'll still accept that a truly dominant bullpen is a way to get to the world series, but I also note that when a dominant bullpen (Yankees, Brewers) went up against a dominant rotation in the last few years (Astros, Dodgers), the dominant bullpen has consistently lost. The last time it worked was with Kansas City, since then, the world series winning team and most of the losing teams have featured extremely strong, front-line starters. The Braves were, interestingly, the weakest division winning team on paper last year by fangraphs/pythagorean record and the only weaker team in the playoffs was the Brewers, who again were carried by that bullpen.

Stras works at almost the same level so sure. I'm not going to be as excited for Wheeler and Grandal or something that brings in Martinez, but I'd get it. The stronger the top of this rotation becomes this offseason, the stronger this team is and the more I like it. The more you spread your dollars around, the more busts you are going to find.

Honestly, yes I'd dislike that setup. If you're spending $185 million on a pitcher to make sure you go 5 deep - you're approaching overkill. There's good reason to have some pitching depth but there's no reason why you should have Kopech, Cease, Lopez, Giolito, and 1/2 of Rodon for only 3 spots, even if you're expecting Ryu to get hurt. If you're going to spend $185 million on pitching go sign Stras. Especially if you are making the playoffs, the guy at your #1 spot matters a lot more than the guys at your #3/#4 spots.

There will always be 1-year stopgap options available if you want to have a position filled by someone.

After all the extensions we saw last year in spring training...who knows?

Hit .316 in the ALDS, .412 in the world series, 1.112 OPS in the series. Was awful in the ALCS but was good to really good in the other 2 series. Whether he's getting electronic help is a different question.

Technically they're terrible at free agents not named Abreu also.

Yeah, for now this is just Boras correctly doing the marketing for his clients.

Per that article, when the Red Sox were caught doing this a few years ago Manfred told the league that next time teams would lose draft picks.

https://www.chron.com/sports/astros/article/Mike-Fiers-Astros-stole-signs-electronically-2017-14829154.php?utm_campaign=socialflow&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=referral

I was ok.

This was well annotated ty.

Yeah but would you trust him for 4 years as opposed to Odo for 1-2 years?

Even when he’s throwing 91 mph fastballs with a cutter for his newest pitch under Cooper?

1. Then Wheeler's an equally bad idea. 2. Cole is a smart guy who doesn't seem likely to just forget what he learned from the Stros.

Who cares? Pay a fair contract. Win the bidding for someone and don't mess around with other "brilliant" ideas.

If you're going to say that then you're also arguing Wheeler would be bad as his fastball has been his best pitch (and is comparable in velocity to Cole too).

I like having the additional flexibility next offseason and I think that Cole is the smartest move you can make based on what we've seen in the playoffs and the trades we've seen in recent years.

Option 1.

Ah everyone's favorite time of year, when we remember fondly how accurate the leaks were from inside this organization last year.

Hypothetically speaking, if the White Sox put 5/$95 on the table and Houston put 4/$80 on the table, given that Texas has no income tax and that would cover 1/2 his season, and you can also look at the jumps players like Morton, Cole have made when they've worked with the Astros system, would anyone consider the Astros as having a better offer? I might.