Balta1701

If he's healthy enough to move to AA he's healthy enough to have them start stretching his arm out.

WTH are you doing with these quote boxes that have images in them?

Everyone remembers how in the first few pages of this thread people were saying the 2018-2019 Bulls had a ton of talent and were a playoff threat, right?

At some point...a long series of injuries and failed prospects cannot be considered bad luck. We're not to that point yet, but we're on the edge of it. For example - it could be that acquiring pitching prospects en masse is fundamentally flawed because you can't develop them or keep them healthy. It could be that you acquire talented players but you neglect the training and development staff and facilities, causing a lot of injuries at all levels. It could be that your scouting department is weak and that even though you thought you were getting decent players, you were getting schooled by other GMs who specifically gave you guys that they were only willing to part with because their former teams thought they were likely to bust or get hurt.

At the very least, Covey is currently on the 40 man roster while Cease is not. Until it is 100% Certain that Rodon needs the TJ Surgery, you call Covey up to fill that role. If and when Rodon does have the surgery goes on the 60 day IL, and adding him to that list would open a 40 man roster spot. Once Rodon is on the 60 day IL and the surgery is scheduled/happening for certain, then the next question becomes "What is best for Dylan Cease's health and development"? His inning totals in the minors are less than Kopech's were last year and he has also had a previous TJS, so there is something to be said for giving him 50 or 75 minor league innings to limit the stress on his arm of throwing to big leaguers all year. He'll be on an innings limit before the end of the season regardless. I'm not sure where I'd draw that line, but it won't be long if he continues pitching well.

Just to say it again - the game you're trying to play is a game I learned not to play in 2015 because I was doing the exact same thing while thinking that team had a shot. When you try to project those results by counting what you think each guy will do, you are building in optimism without even realizing it, because you're leaving out injuries, you're being optimistic, and you're neglecting guys who straight up LaRoche it. Let's just take one example from your text, "Easily combine for 15+ WAR" = this literally translates to a top 6 rotation in all of MLB in 2018 because only 6 rotations had 15 WAR from their starters. One of those guys is a rookie, 3 have been inconsistent, one of your main ones is in season 1 off of TJS, one of your backup options will probably not even be pitching until the middle of the season let alone be available to the big league roster, wheeler has put up 4 WAR in a season before but, in 2016 he went down for TJS, his comeback in 2017 left him with an ERA over 5 and starts where he fell off a cliff late in the year. Could they be a top 5 rotation? Yes, that's a talented rotation. Is that the most likely outcome? It sounds great to say "These guys should easily be a top 6 rotation in MLB", and you're right they could be, it's talented, but a couple things go wrong and suddenly you have a 5-7 win rotation and you finish below .500 even after spending your money. Does anyone look at that rotation in 2020 and immediately think "I would be stunned and disappointed if this wasn't one of the 6 best rotations in baseball"? That's the standard you just set because you said they should easily be top 6, and that is a very high standard.

Considering that this franchise is still on pace to have Alonso on a deal no one will want to take from them next offseason, I'd say he's more a RF than a 1b/DH right now.

Worth noting that he's currently sporting an .890 OPS because his HR totals have dropped a lot so far this year.

I would have said this rebuild is a flop and a failure.

I think the idea that there's anyone other than Cole who is clear-cut better than Keuchel is wrong. Literally a few posts above you can see people worried about a Keuchel velocity drop - his fastball was 90.5 in his Cy Young year, 90.2 last year, and 89.3 in 2016 for his lowest. Then you added Porcello and Bumgarner as people you'd prefer - Both of them have comparable velocity drops to Keuchel, 93 to 91.5 for Bumgarner and 92.7 to 91.7 for Porcello and I didn't bother looking at the rest. So, the chances of any of these guys being a better than average starter in 2021...seems like a coin flip as well. All of these guys should scare you. Out of Wheeler, Keuchel, Porcello, and Bumgarner, I'd say there's a good chance 1 of them, maybe 2, will be guys a team is happy with in 2021.

I would also expect that the White Sox have to sign someone from that group barring a dramatic improvement from someone currently stashed at AAA, and the appropriate reaction to any of them seems like something between a disappointed sigh and a here we go again.

Dude this isn't bleeping copy editing this is basic knowledge of baseball's free agent market. If I said I'd rather not sign Keuchel as I want to save my money to go after Mike Trout this offseason, there are a few problems with that statement that I expect people would point out. Are you prepped to drop a contract on Cole that dramatically beats what Corbin got this offseason or not?

I get all of that. But seriously, unless you are willing to go to the ceiling, sign a Boras client for HUGE money, as the only strong pitcher on the FA market, in a year where the Yankees will have money to spend and need of starting pitching...you can't just say "Sign someone better on the FA market". That person doesn't exist other than Cole. If you miss out on Cole, are you prepared to trade one of our top 5 prospects for someone?

Then say "I'd rather wait for the offseason and sign Cole", not "Sign someone better" because there's literally 1 person who seems like a solid candidate to meet that standard, and you're going to have to pay for the best FA pitcher on the market/a Boras Client, so let's be honest about the challenge here. "I'd rather wait for the offseason and sign Cole to a 7 year/$180 million deal" would be a much more fair way to put it

I'm not sure this person exists. Out of next year's FA starting pitchers, Cole outpitched Keuchel solidly in 2018, but Keuchel was substantially better than Cole in 2016 and 2017. If Keuchel was amongst the names for this offseason, we'd be saying "Yeah Cole looks better, but who's the #2 starter out there, Bumgarner or Keuchel" and I'm not sure who the answer is. After that, you've got Zack Wheeler, Cole Hamels, and Rick Porcello.

But you see what is different? The team that had Pineda, the Yankees - they did not offer him arbitration. That made him a free agent, and he tested the market to find that deal.

And then he signs a minor league deal with an option with someone in February that buys him 2 years to do rehab and recovery but also doesn't require him to have a 40 man roster spot until he's actually done with the IL.

Offering a pitcher with a blown out arm way more than their market value is not "Enforcing their leverage". This somewhat reminds me of people's fantasy with Garcia last year where the White Sox were going to decline him arbitration but he was going to accept a lesser value without hitting the market.

Well not in my eyes.

Well first of all, Boras isn't going to just sign a deal with the White Sox, he's going to force the White Sox to choose arbitration or not, you know that as well as I do...and if the White Sox offer him an arbitration value that is below his contract this year, it's possible, but it's probably 50/50 that they'd lose if Boras came back with a $6 million offer on their side. And even if everything worked out well the way you envision, that's still an awful lot of money to RickHahn away on a guy who hasn't been a successful big league pitcher at all since 2016, and never a dominant one. How happy are we with Nova's money right now? You're talking Nova money and Nova's been far more reliable than Rodon.

Why would the White Sox offer so much money to a guy who won't pitch much if at all in 2020 and then will be trying to rehab in 2021 before becoming a free agent again? Compared to what Rodon would get on the FA market that is literally RickHahning money down the toilet.

Well yeah, but why would the White Sox offer him that? Assuming surgery, that's a lot more than he'll get paid on the FA market, the costs of keeping him in 2021 would be a lot higher than that because we'd have to offer him final year arbitration dollars after him barely pitching at all in 2020 - so basically you're paying him $4.5 million in 2020 and >that amount in 2021 to hold onto him in arbitration, and he costs us a 40 man roster slot in December both years and thus we lose someone else/have to clear a spot for them.

I can't see Boras doing this with us, at least not in advance, but what would likely happen this offseason if he were non-tendered is that he'd sign with someone on the equivalent of a 2 year deal (maybe somehow the 2nd year is an option?) worth something like $1-2 million a year, with some 2021 performance bonuses based on innings pitched or something like that. That way he can do his rehab next year, throw some minor league innings, maybe if everything goes perfectly he contributes to someone's bullpen in September, and then both sides get an opportunity in 2021. Personally if I were him I'd go to a team like Houston or Tampa Bay, someone with a recent reputation for unlocking pitchers with good stuff.

I didn't think about this when writing that last post either, but there's no 60 day IL in the offseason, meaning that this offseason Rodon would also require a spot on the 40 man even though he basically wouldn't be on the 2020 team, and that makes the roster crunch worse.

The AP Blurb says "Rodon had experienced tightness in his elbow all season and it worsened against Baltimore".