CWSOX45

QUOTE (YASNY @ Feb 17, 2009 -> 03:58 AM) Combined projection totals for the Sox and Cubs over the last 4 years: Sox 38 Cubs -45 So they have a history of decidedly underestimating the Sox and overestimating the Cubs. I'm so shocked!!! Not only that, but they have yet to predict the AL Central champion correctly in the last four years. BP is a good baseball publication, but the media attention it attracts for being a crapshoot is a complete joke.

Good. I'm glad that article pissed him off. The last thing the AL Central wants is a pissed off Big bad Bobby Jenks. Can't wait to see him take the mound on opening day.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Feb 15, 2009 -> 04:41 PM) The obvious problem, IMO, with the AL projections this year are that the winners of the Central and West have only 83 and 84 wins. That's much too low to be realistic. The East will be excellent, clearly, but who wants to bet me that both the Central and West won't have winners with at least 87 or 88 victories? Someone almost always emerges, and the "sellers" get REALLY bad in the second half and provide more easy wins to the contenders. Projections are fun to talk about, but are mostly worthless. Exactly. I just want everyone to notice that in the last four years, BP has yet to correctly predict the AL Central winner. So consider it a blessing that they didn't pick us to finish 1st.

After reading way too many blogs, message boards, and websites about the proclaimed “geniuses” at Baseball Prospectus. I decided to go back and do some research in the BP archives. What I found was somewhat interesting regarding BP’s PETCOTA forecast. I took a look at the projected records for all 30 teams, dating back to 2005. Below I have posted how many games off BP was on their projected win total. Basically if BP underestimated the win total, the number will be positive. (Ex. 2005 White Sox: BP projected the Sox to have 80 wins, they won 99. So the number would be 19 indicating they vastly underestimated the Sox win total, and were off by 19 wins.) If BP overestimated the win total of a specific team, the number will be negative. (Ex. 2005 Cubs: BP Projected the Cubs to finish with a 89-73 record. At the end of the 2005 season the Cubs finished with a 69-93 record. Meaning their number would be -19, indicating they lost 19 more than BP indicated) (Hope that makes sense.) Below are the projected BP standings from 2005-2008. The teams are listed by PETCOTA’s prediction as to where they would finish in their division at the conclusion of the regular season. I have bolded the 8 play-off teams from each season. Here are the last 4 seasons, from 2005-2008: 2005: AL NL Red Sox: -4(WC) Phillies: -2 Yankees: 0 Braves: 8 Orioles: -4 Marlins: 2 Blue Jays: 7 Mets: 2 Rays: -1 Nationals: 7 Twins: -3 Cardinals: 8 Indians: 8 Cubs: -20 White Sox: 19 Astros: 9 Tigers: -5 Reds: -3 Royals: -13 Brewers: 8 Pirates: -5 A’s: 0 Giants: -10 Angels: 12 Padres: -2 Rangers: 0 Dodgers: -12 Mariners: -8 D’Backs: -2 Rockies: -6 2006: AL NL Yankees: 3 Mets: 9 Red Sox: -7 Phillies: -1 Blue Jays 8 Braves: -6 Orioles: -7 Marlins: 7 Rays: -8 Nationals: 1 Indians: -10 Cardinals: 3 Twins: 12 Cubs: -19 Tigers: 12 Brewers: -9 White Sox: 8 Astros: 1 Royals: 1 Pirates: -12 Reds: 2 A’s: 0 Dodgers: 1 (WC) Angels: 8 Giants: -4 Rangers: 0 Padres: 10 Mariners: -1 D’Backs: -1 Rockies: 2 2007 AL NL Yankees: 1 (WC) Phillies: 2 Red Sox: 4 Mets: 2 Blue Jays 3 Braves: 2 Rays: -9 Marlins: -8 Orioles: -6 Nationals: 7 Twins: -12 Cubs: 0 Indians: 6 Brewers: -2 Tigers: 3 Cardinals: -3 White Sox: -1 Astros: -7 Royals: 3 Pirates: -8 Reds: 0 Angels: 8 D’Backs: 2 A’s:4 Padres: 3 Rangers: -5 Dodgers: 2 Mariners: 15 Rockies: 14 Giants: -8 2008 AL NL Yankees: -8 Mets: -4 Red Sox: 4 (WC) Braves: -14 Rays: 9 Phillies: 6 Blue Jays: 8 Nationals: -14 Orioles: 2 Marlins: 13 Indians: -10 Cubs: 6 Tigers: -17 Brewers: 2 White Sox: 12 Reds: -6 Twins: 14 Cards: 9 Royals: 2 Astros: 14 Pirates: -5 Angels: 15 D’Backs: -5 A’s:-5 Dodgers: -3 Mariners: -14 Rockies: -8 Rangers: 6 Padres: -15 Giants: 4 So there you have it. To give them the benefit of the doubt, personally in my opinion if BP was within +/- 5 games I consider it a fairly accurate projection. With that in mind, here is how the numbers broke down from 2005-2008: 2005: 16/30=53.3% 2006: 13/30=43.3% 2007: 18/30=60.0% 2008: 10/30=30% 4 Year Total: 57/120=47.5% Accurate. (Teams W/L +/- 5) Next let’s take a look at how accurate BP has been at predicting the division winners in the last four seasons: AL East: 25% AL Central: 0% AL West: 75% NL East: 50% NL Central: 100% NL West: 25% In total, over the past four seasons BP has predicted the correct division winner 45.8% of the time, but has yet to predict the AL Central winner correctly from 2005-2009. (Sorry for the format of the standings.)

QUOTE (Hatchetman @ Feb 10, 2009 -> 08:55 AM) somebody post the projected individual performances so we can all get a laugh. I don't think I can post the material since it is premium material, but what I will do is talk about the VORP of the players on the depth chart. To be honest, I hate when people read Baseball Prospectus as if they were reading the Baseball Bible. I have read numerous articles where most of there so called "experts" didn't take the time to do necessary research on all 30 MLB teams. I took a look at the Sox depth chart....and compared it to other team's depth charts in the AL central. Some of the comparisons and VORP differentials are laughable, I also think that a majority of "plate appearances" for our players are way off track. I'll do my best to break down for you what I read. Starting Line-up: I found a couple of question marks in our projected starting line-up. Silver has Dewayne Wise as our everyday centerfielder, who has a VORP of -.5. Personally I think Brian Anderson will be our starting centerfielder, who has a VORP of 3.8. If Wise is our starter...I might vomit in my mouth. He is a good option to have off the bench, but in no way do I think he'll get the 439 plate appearances that BP projects him to get. Third Base: They have Josh Fields as our starting 3B. Granted there is a high possibility of that happening, but there are no estimations on what Dayan Viciedo's VORP numbers may be. I understand he has yet to see a pitch at the Major League level, but if you're going to make a VORP estimation for Tyler Flowers and Brandon Allen, you most certainly must do one for Dayan Viciedo. Second Base: Silver has Jayson Nix being our everyday second baseman. Followed by Chris Getz and Lillibridge. Nix has a -2.5 VORP, Get has a -.5 VORP. Again there is no mention of the impact that Gordon Beckham could have if he is called up for the last couple months of the season. In my opinion there is a reason the Sox haven't signed Orlando Hudson to play second base, because they firmly believe Beckham will continue to hit the cover off the ball and could make an impact in Chicago come July. Starting Rotation: Again laughable. Unlike the other 4 teams in the AL Central, the White Sox are the only team that only has 4 tabbed starters. Silver forgot to list who our 4th starter will be. He has Buehrle, Danks, Floyd, and Contreras, and Colon as a spot starter. No mention of Jeff Marquez throughout the article, but we do have a VORP rating for Aaron Poreda and Kelvin Jimenez. Other Thoughts: I took a look at other player's VORP ratings. Particularly the Kansas City Royals. Silver has given Alex Gordon (21.0) and Billy Butler (23.0) a higher VORP than Carlos Quentin, who was rated at 17.0. When I noticed this, the article lost all credibility. To say that Gordon and Butler will have higher VORP's than an MVP candidate, who missed the last month of the season is a joke. It just goes to show you that you have to take everything you read with a grain of salt. Quite frankly I think the 2009 White Sox will be a 83-84 win team.

QUOTE (scenario @ Jan 1, 2009 -> 09:35 AM) Another good example of why I take everything Law writes with a grain of salt. Javy may have had 'problems', but lack of movement on his pitches was not one of them. He has absolutely nasty movement on his pitches. My thoughts exactly. You and Caulfield hit it right on the head. I hate reading blogs from these ESPN "experts." Most of them just regurgitate scouting reports that have been written in the past. Santos is turning 20 years old tomorrow. It's too early to simply say that the White Sox only got one proven prospect in this deal. More than likely Law hasn't even seen Gilmore or Rodriguez, not many national media members travel down to small minor league clubs to write about "raw" prospects, which is why most scouting reports found on the internet are usually flawed. I was reading another article the other day about Brad Holt, the Mets first round pick. The writer was from Baseball Prospectus. While breaking down his repitoire of pitches he claimed Holt had an above average slider. Had he done his homework he would have known that Holt's "slider" is actually a power curve, and towards the end of the year was relying on it much more than his fastball. Basically the bottom line is that you can't believe everything you hear from the media, even if media members at one point were directly involved in baseball operations.

I have seen the insides of the park. It is nicer than the Cell. (That's because it's brand spanking new.) The only part of the park I did not see is the Jackie Robinson Rotunda. Which is going to be the main entrance when fans arrive. It's a gorgeous facility.

This deal isn't happening. The Mets are more likely to go after Kerry Wood than to trade a lot of their prospects for Jenks.

This sounds a lot like a KW move. Trading for a pitcher that was a first round pick whose value has considerably declined. I wouldn't be surprised if this were to happen.

I'd be afraid to deal with Beane. Crosby is always injured, and he's been a huge disappointment. With that in mind....stay away.

If KW brought in Jose Guillen, I would be furious at the organization. Jose Guillen is a grade A piece of s***. I've heard from multiple scouts that he is just a horrible teammate, he's a clubhouse cancer, and is probably one of the most disliked players of all time. There's a reason he's jumped around to so many teams. He's a cancer, he has a reputation of a cancer, and if he is brought to the Southside of Chicago, he will remain a cancer.

QUOTE (BFirebird @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 05:14 PM) Well then I definitely don't believe it. We are getting Heilman for sure now. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Heilman can be one of the best relievers in the game. In 2006 he was downright filthy. If we get Heilman in this deal I love this even more. He makes his home in Chicago, and is an Indiana native. Some players just aren't meant to play in New York, Heilman may be one of them. The Mets haven't been able to figure out what is wrong with Heilman, which to me just screams that the man needs a change of scenery and a fresh start.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 05:10 PM) Mets fans opinions: Now your talking, if we can get Quentin, Jenks and Vazquez that changes things. Quentin is only 26 and would give us the right hand power bat we need. If we can pute Maine in place of Pelfrey and go with FMart, Maine, Kunz, Murphy and Evans for Quentin, Jenks and Vazquez that's a great deal. Sox may ask for Parnell in place of Evans. This deal would give us the young power bat, a young elite closer and a #3 starter. Ah yes, you wouldnt even do it if we included the AL MVP. Mmm Hmm. This is a joke too. Met fans are delusional. I'm not even going to comment on that even further.

I don't buy this rumor. There is no way the Mets are dealing Mike Pelfrey. He's a young starter with high potential. Vazquez isn't even an upgrade over Pelfrey, he's older, more expensive, and both pitched at least 200 innings this year. If Mike Pelfrey goes in this deal, and the Sox sign a big name free agent with the money, the White Sox robbed the Mets blind, even if it means dealing Bobby Jenks.

QUOTE (fathom @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 02:07 PM) Heilman absolutely, positively sucks! He would be pathetic as a starter in the American League. I responded to this another post: The report out of New York is that he wants to start for the Mets. If they won't start him, then he wants to be traded to another team where he will continue to relieve. He just refuses to pitch from the pen in New York. He feels the Mets owe him a starting job. (Yeah right.) Either way if the Sox trade for him he will be pitching from the pen. No way the Sox will make him a starter.

QUOTE (Jenks Heat @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 01:40 PM) I am not really up to speed on Heilman other than he has pitched for the Mets and is not a stand out on their staff. Jenks would be their second most productive pitcher IMO. For Heilman to not be able to start for them over the crap they throw out there tells me all I need to know. Jackson for Dye is a terrible move. The Mets starting rotation really wasn't the problem this year. It was the bullpen...specifically consisting of Heilman, Sanchez, and our favorite ex-Sox Scott Schoeneweis. (Yes he still sucks.) The Mets starting rotation pitched fairly well during the 2008 season, however with losing Perez to free agency targeting Vazquez makes sense for them.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 01:33 PM) I'm willing to bet that Perez costs as much or more than Willy Taveras would though, and quite frankly I'd rather have Willy Taveras even if the cost was the same. Taveras is one year older and has spent 4 full seasons and part of a fifth in the Major Leagues. He's just a better ballplayer. Taveras struck out 134 times in his last two full Major League seasons combined. Perez struck out 156 times last year in triple A alone. I'd rather have Taveras too. Believe me. I'm just saying if the Rays are willing to throw him in it would be a nice add in.....if it's Dye for Jackson straight up a lot of people will be freaking out....myself being one of them.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 01:32 PM) I agee, I don't understand that. Heilman wants to be a starter. Unless that something else is something huge like Beltran, it makes no sense. The report out of New York is that he wants to start for the Mets. If they won't start him, then he wants to be traded to another team where he will continue to relieve. He just refuses to pitch from the pen in New York. He feels the Mets owe him a starting job. (Yeah right.) Either way if the Sox trade for him he will be pitching from the pen.

QUOTE (That funky motion @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 01:29 PM) I heard that on the score also about 30 min ago. The also said Javy and Jenks to the Mets for Heilman and someone else is heating up I could see this happening. Heilman makes his home in Chicago. He told the Mets to either start him or trade him. Chicago makes sense. I do think Heilman can be worked with. He's always had good stuff, I just think he hasn't been getting as good of extension on his pitches as he was in 2006.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 01:26 PM) Levine saying its Dye for Jackson. Don't know if its close. Ugh. I hope we get more than just Jackson. He's had one "okay" season. Dye is a proven hitter. Get a couple of prospects in the deal and pull the trigger Kenny.

QUOTE (Tony82087 @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 01:09 PM) Crawford breaks down like this. 2009: $8.25 million club option w/$2.5 million buyout, 2010: $10 million club option w/$1.25 million buyout, 2011: Free Agent Thanks.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 01:03 PM) Ugh. Please no Fernando Perez. He'll be 26 next year and he struck out 156 times in Triple A. If this board doesn't like Josh Fields, then it's not going to like Josh Fields the speedy CF who has no power. We need to be talking to Texas about Julio Borbon. That kid is f***ing awesome. I'd be willing to take a chance on him as long as he's not the center piece of this deal, and we get another starting pitcher. He has something that we so desperately needed this past off season....blazing speed. I know he strikes out a lot, but imagine him patrolling center field. He'd get to a majority of those balls hit into the gaps, he also has a good arm. I'd be willing to sacrafice power for defense and speed. By no means would I want him leading off, but I think he'd be a good fit batting 9th. A HUGE upgrade over Juan Uribe.....then again anything would be an upgrade over Uribe offensively.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 12:53 PM) I am guessing because of salary considerations, a deal for Crawford would be easier than a deal for Perez. You're most likely correct. However Jermaine Dye is no way cheap. Last time I looked he's making $11 million per year, AND he has a full/limited trade clause for the last year of his contract. Bobby Jenks is eligible for arbitration after the 2009 season. I'm not too sure about Crawford's contract, but I know he has a year left and a couple of club options if I'm not mistaken. With that reason I think if this trade were to happen I'd assume we'd most likely get prospects. That gives Kenny the ability to swing them in another deal. I just don't see the Rays trading Crawford for an aging Dye, unless Jenks was included and the Sox paying most of JD's salary.

QUOTE (Tony82087 @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 12:42 PM) If the Sox really are talking to Tampa, Jenks has to be brought up in conversation. I agree, and if this is the case then Kenny will most likely be asking for Fernando Perez. The kid is a player Kenny would most likely be infatuated with. Flat out speed and can fly around the bases. He's currently playing in winter ball right now, last time I checked he was flat out raking. I just don't think we have the pieces to land a guy like Crawford, and one of their starting pitchers unless they get Jenks and Dye. In all honesty I think we'd have to get a better picher than Jackson if this is indeed the package that is being offered. Should be interesting.

Guys Beltran isn't going anywhere. Hate to break it to all of you. The Mets aren't trading their best outfielder unless they're getting one in return. Right now their outfield is Beltran, Church (who's been plagued with concussions all last season.), and either Danny Murphy who isn't fleet of foot, or Nick Evans who is a career utility player. I hate to break it to all of you, but if we trade with the Mets I can see Aaron Heilman coming this way. He resides in Chicago and needs a change of scenery. The Mets are sick of him, the fans are sick of him, and I'm pretty sure he's sick of New York. If they're asking for Jenks, the Sox better ask for Wilmer Flores. He'll only be 18 years old...but trust me, he's the next Miguel Cabrera. The only question is whether or not he'd be available to the Sox, I know he was signed last year, and I don't know if there are any regulations regarding how long a player must be signed before being traded in the minors.