southsider2k5

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 01:23 PM) Heyward had a lot more of a track-record and is more physically gifted, so I think people see him as a guy who could have even expanded from there. Eaton's track record is still good, just not the long span that Heyward had. Heyward has essentially 4 seasons of 6 WAR (a few just a bit above and one that I'm counting that was at 5.8). That is in his first six seasons. His last two entering free agency were a 6.2 and a 6.5 and was only going to be 26 during the first year of his contract. Eaton, to his own defense, has put up a 5.2 and a 6.2 in two of the last three years and even his down year was a 3.9. Case in point, not a ton of difference necessarily between the two, just one had a longer track record and a bigger reputation, but both are damn good players. I'd say that Eaton was far more underappreciated but part of that is Heyward was so hyped coming up, etc. If Adam were a free agent this year, he'd get a big contract ($100M plus for sure). You can see why teams would want him, but we also have years of control over him and I would hope intend to compete during the reign where he'd still be in his "prime" years. Either way, Adam Eaton is a good problem to have. If the market dictated that Heyward was a $184 million player, I have to say that Adam Eaton would be at least $150 million on the open market.

I think the central theme here is that if the White Sox aren't getting a teams top prospect, plus 3 to 4 other really high quality minor leaguers, the White Sox have lost the deal. My hope is that with one of the least likely teams to trade with the White Sox having won the 2016 World Series, and a lot of interest from the top teams around baseball in Sale, both the pressure and the bids to get Chris Sale will have to rise. Think about the view for each of these squads: Boston gets to put Chris Sale behind David Price. Dodgers get to run Clayton Kershaw and Chris Sale to start a playoff series. As a playoff team, you could have to face Sale and Kershaw 5 times in a seven game series. Atlanta is looking to make a big leap to sell a fairly unwanted new stadium here in a few short years. Houston is looking to take the next step by adding veteran star power to their team The Yankees missed the playoffs last year, and are becoming devoid of star power We only need one of those teams to push all in, and it forces the rest to push in or know that they let Chris Sale go to competition.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 01:02 PM) You think Eaton gets >$150mm on the market today? I'm sorry, I just can't get there. I wish I had time to look up comps and dig deeper. Would be an interesting question to ask a FanGraphs guy to look into. I think he's more like $80mm in a normal year, maybe $100mm in a historically weak class like this. It is, indeed, probably the biggest drawback in the field of measuring defense -- the fact that the chances aren't equally distributed like at bats. But, yes, while holding runners from advancing is definitely valuable and definitely not accounted for, it is much less valuable than gunning them down. It isn't fair, but it's the truth. Eaton's team this year will enjoy the benefit of his reputation on runners, but it's very unlikely to get the "wins" he earned this year out of those throwouts. They just aren't likely to happen again. It's certainly POSSIBLE, but he's probably more of a 3-4 win guy going forward. And so I think that's what teams are seeing in his value. That's still valuable, mind you. What is the big difference between Heyward (pre 2016) and Adam Eaton today? These figures are straight off of fangraphs. Jason Heyward 2015 6.0 WAR, 16.4 Def, 120 RC+, 22.6 UZR, 24, DRS, 5.2 Arm Adam Eaton 2016 6.0 WAR, 18.0 Def, 115 RC+, 22.5 UZR, 20 DRS, 9.1 Arm.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 12:56 PM) This. The Dodgers are not trading Corey Seager. Everyone please stop talking about it. It's like Mookie Betts all over again. The veracity of that report is unclear and it was ambiguous in nature to begin with. Also, Urias was called up right after the deadline and put up a sub 2 ERA over 37 innings. He improved his stock and showed he can hang in the MLB right now. As many of us have been saying since he was 18. Urias is a stud. He doesn't get the respect he deserves around here. The Sox need position players and fans are fawning over Benintendi, Bregman, etc. and that's all good and fair, those are great prospects/players BUT... Urias is a better pitcher than they are hitters. Pitchers come with more risk and Urias isn't even six foot so there is a rationale to prefer aforementioned players but Urias is an animal. He'll have three plus pitches at maturation and he has the composure and inventiveness of a guy who's been playing for years and he's yet to have a legal drink in the states. I love Urias and have ever since I've first heard of him. He's one of a kind. With the way this organization loves pitching, he has to be the centerpiece for any deal in their eyes, I would bet money on it.

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QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 11:28 AM) John Feinstein just said on his sport minute that if you are busted for PEDs once it should be a full year suspension and a second failed test should be banishment from the NFL. I really can't stand that guy With as often as it happens in the NFL, I can't say that I disagree with him.

Bruce Levine ‏@MLBBruceLevine 18h18 hours ago Chicago, IL Dexter Fowler camp said to be looking for a four year contract ,as he declines qualifying offer from Cubs

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 11:06 AM) On the contrary, I think those examples actually help prove the point. Both of those guys got that money when they started hitting homers. The contract year's for each of those guys were 150 wRC+ and 132 wRC+ respectively. Eaton's recent big season came on the back of a 115 wRC+. I believe if Adam Eaton were a free agent today, he would exceed the deal that either player got as a FA.

The player that is a must in a deal with the Braves is Kevin Maitan. Realistically you build a deal that starts with Swanson, Maitan, Allard, and go from there, you could build a solid deal. I would expect that teams like Boston, Los Angeles, Houston, and the Yankees could outbid that if they wanted to.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 10:44 AM) SS2K5, haven't you heard? Hypothetical scenarios always run in your favor. Touche.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 10:54 AM) I love Eaton, but I don't think ANY team thinks he's a 6 win player going forward. The problem with deriving so much value from your arm is that people stop giving you the chance to throw them out. The problem with deriving so much value from rangey plays is that you don't always get the opportunity to make rangey plays. The defensive "production" is likely to regress, even if he plays exactly as well as he did this year. On top of that (and possibly partially because of that), players like Eaton tend to consistently command less on the trade/free agent market than everyone expects. I think most teams would love to have him, but I don;t think he would return what most seem to be expecting. There's a good chance he's more valuable to the Sox on the field than he is as trade bait. Seeing what Ellsbury and Crawford pulled down on the free agent market, I don't know that I agree with that.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 10:34 AM) I read all of this and only digested the parts that indicate 2019 as feasible Pretty much everything would have to go right for 2019 to happen.

The scariest thing about a rebuild is expecting an organization that has a decade long streak of not developing position players for the most part will be depending on developing position players.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 10:01 AM) Yeah, gonna have to plead some ignorance here not knowing what we are getting back. But I really like our 2016 draft class, assume I'll like our returns. Much of the rumors are of players in AA/AAA. That could be first year they come up. Our budget would be super low, and could feasibly load up on holes in 2019 with a much deeper team. But, obviously risky. If we get really bad returns and only 3-4 starters let alone stars then this is a decade lost. Obviously we don't know what we are getting back, but the top theme of all of the rumors is that none of the returning teams want to give up their top guys. Past that, you have to figure that the vast majority of players we get in these deals won't start seeing the majors until probably 2018, at least. A few of the headliners might make the team this year, but for the most part 2017 will be a wasted year in terms of major league development. For example, take any of the Boston deals that are being talked about. Benietendi is the one top guy out of those deals who will be here in 2017, if he is even available. Unless Bradley is in a deal, every other players soonest ETA is September 2017, at the earliest. Moncada, maybe late 17. Devers. Koepech, Groome are years away. Take the Dodgers deal, Urias is the main guy who would be here to start 2017. The other top guys, could start here in 17, as many have gotten AAA, but are most likely mid to late 17 arrivals. DeLeon and Barnes could be here. Bellinger got 3 games in AAA, so probably mid to late year at earliest (not rushing him). Alvarez, Buehler, Lux are years away. Realistically even once guys get here, they aren't going to be instantly good. That process typically takes 1 to 3 years to come together. That leaves 2018 and 2019 as the years we actually start to get an idea of if these guys are really going to be major league players or not, just for the early wave of players. Also keep in mind, unlike teams like the top notch teams who have done this, we aren't going to be able to spend once players do start arriving. The fan base isn't going to return until actual winning takes place. The idea of rebuilding through Latin America is probably also dead in this CBA, as the international draft appears to be here. Though even if we were to do so, the kids we are signing there are at least a half of a decade away from making their major league debuts.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 08:59 AM) Yeah, if Adam Eaton threw the hissy fit he did last year over not having a teenage boy in the clubhouse, imagine how he'll be when all his real friends are gone. Given his already estranged relationship with KW, there are some non-production reasons why the front office might want to move him. Still, it would be incredibly stupid for them to move Eaton right now without getting a killer offer. He'll still have a ton of value at the deadline and in the coming year. Yeah, I hadn't gotten here yet, but this.

Here is my thought on this. If Chris Sale gets dealt, the odds of a Adam Eaton meltdown have to go up significantly. He may well need to be moved, not because of contract or time of service, but because he doesn't have the maturity to play through any sort of a rebuild.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 15, 2016 -> 09:44 AM) I think 2019 is totally feasible. I am not even convinced about 2020 with a real sell off.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 14, 2016 -> 09:11 PM) The Sox aren't trading Sale and going to be better in 2017 if that's what you're suggesting. Or 2018, or 2019.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Nov 14, 2016 -> 08:19 PM) @barstoolWSD is reporting talks between @whitesox and @Dodgers involving Sale and Frazier. Interesting possibility in many ways. https://twitter.com/philgrogers/status/798346603060953088 @Dodgers could include bats in Bellinger, Verdugo & Calhoun, a C in Barnes and young arms in Urias, DeLeon, Sheffield and Buehler. https://twitter.com/philgrogers/status/798347208223379456 If the @whitesox were really going to deal Chris Sale, they might prefer it be to the @dodgers, who could keep the @Cubs from repeating. https://twitter.com/philgrogers/status/798347576080789504 Yeah um, I think in the order of stupid reasons to trade Chris Sale, Phil Rogers hit the jackpot. In order of real reasons to trade Chris Sale 1. Gigantic return 2. Not to a rival 3. Not to the AL

I have to think the Sox are looking at one of their top pitchers, and a whole lot of their position players.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Nov 14, 2016 -> 04:44 PM) Meh. He is only going to get about $500k to $1m raise this year versus what he would have gotten. If he rakes like he did the past 2 months of the season, he'll be getting raises in the next two years, but its not like his salary is going to skyrocket. On the plus side, it gives the Sox (or the acquiring team) a little more flexibility in that if he falls of a cliff or gets hurt, they can non-tender him and aren't stuck paying $12M per. It reduces salary certainty going forward. In this market that is a really bad thing.

Well that s***s on his trade value for sure.

All I have to say at this point is Let's Go Browns!

Brilliant work Jeffrey.

Birmingham Barons ‏@BhamBarons 14m14 minutes ago Homewood, AL .@CHawkins10 celebrated his birthday on Saturday going 3-for-4 with a RBI in @MLBazFallLeague action. http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2016_11_12_scowin_gddwin_1&t=g_box&sid=l119 …://http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/stats...&sid=l119 …