southsider2k5

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 13, 2010 -> 08:27 AM) Honestly, until a DH is signed...my head tells me to agree with you but my gut says Ozzie is going to keep Nix or Lillibridge up as that last spot because that's what Ozzie wants. I don't think Ozzie wants Nix on the roster. He doesn't like him at all.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 13, 2010 -> 08:03 AM) First of all, it's a fun game your side gets to play. Water down the stimulus to be less effective by getting 60% of it as tax cuts, and then express how appalled you are that it wasn't as effective as it could have been. Then at the same time, the economy at least stops its free-fall and settles into a hover, the pace of job loss slows dramatically, interest rates DO NOT rise like they would if the government was doing too much borrowing, and yet you insist that the stimulus somehow is doing nothing. You may not like them, and there's certainly going to be debate about which model is correct, but to bury your head in the sand and shout "LALALA I can't hear you" every time someone shows math that has been done by economists for years is just embarrassing. But I guess that's how your side can come up with the idea that the correct response to this collapse is some combination of tax cuts and a balanced budget amendment. Sure it wasn't as effective as it could have been for many reasons, most of them dealing with the factors the Democrats put in, such as spending in 2013, focus on things that don't matter, and wasteful spending. And if you don't understand why interest rates haven't risen being entirely artificial, I am not sure where we can even go with this conversation.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 13, 2010 -> 08:04 AM) Really, it doesn't strike you at all that corporate sweetheart deals happen all the time? And it doesn't strike you that governmental ones happen all of the time?

QUOTE (Tex @ Jan 13, 2010 -> 07:19 AM) As far as outsourcing from public to private, as the government does more and more of this, there will be a learning curve. We will make some mistakes and there will be some major successes. The mistakes should not be a reason to stop. Blackwater may have been a mistake, but we fix that and move on. The danger I see is when connected corporations wind up with sweetheart deals. As opposed to governments who give sweetheart deals in exchange for cash? I think there is actually more accountability in the corporate sectors, because at least they have to answer to shareholders. Judging by re-election rates, the government doesn't seem to have that problem.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 09:54 PM) I never said they were calculating it correctly. Your side continues to assert that it's impossible to gain any information about it, or that we should ignore any means of calculation based on whether or not you like it, not whether or not there's anything interesting or useful about the math. Accurate information. Which Obama agrees with. You can make up any numbers you like, which is exactly what is happening. Its hard to argue with something that is made up on the spot.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 05:22 PM) Uh, did you read the post? 197 PA vs. 195 PA. And I don't think that's much of a difference when you're talking about a .660 OPS vs. a .509 OPS. BTW, in 2008 Vizquel posted a .550 OPS in the NL in 300 PA. It should be more than obvious that both players are only valuable as defensive subs, and in the case of Lillibridge, as a pinch runner. Edit: Also, instead of using OPS you should have talked about batting average. Over the span I gave, they both have the smae number of XBH and Lillibridge has more walks. Vizquel has a few more hits, probably because he makes a lot more contact and played in a fast infield. That's really the only major difference between the 2 offensively. Yeah, their batting averages were only 90 points apart, that is much closer

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 05:12 PM) Here's a quick example: Brent Lillibridge vs. Omar Vizquel Lillibridge's MLB career: 197 PA, 175 AB, .177/.258/.251/.509 Vizquel in 2009: 195 PA, 175 AB, .266/.316/.345/.660 Vizquel has 16 more hits total, which is an average of an extra 2.7H per month. Both only have 10 XBH. Lillibridge actually has 4 more walks. Vizquel can play 2B, SS, and 3B better than Lilli can, but Lillibridge is pretty good himself, and Lillibridge can also play CF and pinch run. Vizquel's bunting ability is an advantage as well as experience, however Lillibridge is 26 next year while Vizquel is 43. Vizquel is a little bit better overall, but in the year 2010 only, there is no huge gap in ability between the two. In terms of pay however, Vizquel will make about $975K more than Lillibridge would have, which is a lot when you consider how little players like Matsui and Johnson signed for. Neither Vizquel nor Lillibridge belong on the field regularly at all. They are *supposed* to be there only to spell the regulars and act as insurance options. Now, if Ozzie is planning on giving Vizquel a good 350-400 PA then obviously Vizquel becomes a whole lot better, *BUT* if that were the case then it shouldn't make Vizquel look like a smart use of money, it should instead make people call for Ozzie's firing. So 150 points of OPS is virtually the same. Yeah, that totally reinforces my point.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 04:51 PM) That's a terrible argument though. You could say that about anyone on our team. What if Peavy gets hurt, how badly does that hurt us? Sure, players like Vlad, Thome, and Johnson may not be the greatest bets to play a full season without issues, but neither is Paul Konerko, neither is Carlos Quentin. And let's say one of Paulie/Q go down, who would you rather have, a bunch of decent bench players and some scrub like Andruw Jones to fill in, or a bunch of bad (but good defensive) bench players with another big bat already there? Also, every current member of our bench belongs in Charlotte anyway if he wants everyday playing time. The guys we have brought in may be a level above what we had in-house, but league average, full-time MLB players are still at least a level or two above each guy on our bench. There isn't this vast seas worth of ability separating the 2009 versions Andruw Jones, Mark Kotsay, and Omar Vizquel from the 2009 versions of Josh Kroeger, Alejandro DeAza, and Brent Lillibridge/Jayson Nix. If you really believe this, there is no point in continuing on.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 04:36 PM) Over the course of a season, the contributions of one very good everyday hitter is going to dwarf the combined improvements of a bunch of past-their-primes veteran backups over what we could have fit in for the league minimum, either in-house or via ST invitees on MiLB contracts. The other thing is, bench players are always for sale during the season and cost basically nothing. We got Kotsay and Castro midseason both at the pro-rated minimum IIRC for the [sarcasm]steep price[/sarcasm] of Brian Anderson and Lance Broadway. I guarantee the price is going to be a lot steeper for a big bat during the season. This aversion to running cheap minor leaguers out there as bench players is kind of surprising since we've benefited from that quite a bit in the past, bringing in guys like Widger, Ozuna, Uribe, etc. But it seems like almost every time we spend on a bench, and go after the Sandy Alomars, and the Toby Halls, and the Alex Cintrons and Rob Mackowiaks, we end up getting burned by wasting money that could have gone to other, more important areas. BTW, the players we've put in place on the bench do make us better - marginally better, but still better. Individually I would have no problem with these moves *if* we could afford them, but we can't. Kenny knew at least since the organizational meetings how broke we were, and how little we had left to spend, and yet he *still* put the bench ahead of the need for offensive firepower. Maybe if we all close our eyes and tap our heels together three times we'll end up in the magical world of the NL West where none of this matters at all... Unless that one decent player gets hurt, which has been the history of many of the guys who have been advocated for here ad naseum, such as Vlad, Thome, Johnson, etc. Then we are stuck with a bad player our line up and a horrible bench. Common sense tells you that the way Ozzie likes to use his bench, you probably should have guys who fit that. Having a bench that belongs at Charlotte doesn't achieve that.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 04:09 PM) People will say, "it's only $1M," but if you start adding some of this s*** up (i.e. $600K more for Castro than Armstrong/various other AAA/AAAA options on MiLB contracts), it's scary to think how much better we could be had our GM actually entered this offseason with a plan. So instead we would have entered the season with one decent player, and five minor leaguers. Sounds like the end of 2007 to me.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 02:47 PM) According to Kalapse's chart, he has 2 option years remaining. If that is the case, he is a solid claim, because he can be stashed away at Charlotte for at least two more years.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 02:45 PM) OK, De Aza was claimed off waivers. Doesn't that mean he needs to make the 25 man roster, or he can elect free agency? Rotoworld also expressed skepticism that he'd even stick with the Sox all offseason: The 25 man roster depends on if he has any options remaining. If he does, we can send him down. If he doesn't he has to pass through waivers, and then he can deny the senddown and become a free agent. I don't know if he has any options or not.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 02:40 PM) I never said it was a decrease. That wasn't my point. My point was, this deal is not "nothing". It clearly has positive effect. That was sarcasm to be perfectly honest.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 02:38 PM) Going up less, I'd suppose, in this case. Which is a decrease if you ask any politician...

Interesting. I believe this means Flowers is going to start in AAA, not be traded.

I work with John "Records" Landecker now. Actually have broadcast with him a couple of sporting events. I think I might actually get to do a regular radio show with him in the next couple of weeks as a fill in for his regular partner.

So how many businesses get sold for their estimated 75 year earnings expectations? Most mergers and acquisitions I see around Wall Street are for a fraction of that number. Keep in mind, that would mean the City of Chicago would essentially get a 75 P-E value for their business of parking. I love to call the Daley Administration for the mat for what they do, but getting essentially a 40 P-E for an asset is pretty damned impressive.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 01:28 PM) Since you are just buying, not selling, that timeframe should be easy to meet. Just do your research - and you'll need some hours to do that - and see a lot of houses. Pick the one you like. That shouldn't take until April if you start now. The hard part will be finding a place that isn't contingent upon the seller doing something, thus taking up a lot of time.

At times it makes it hard to field a football team, but it does explain a lot.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 01:05 PM) Del Rio is apparently staying in Jacksonville. Herm Edwards and Mariucci are names now being dropped by USC fans. Why wouldn't USC go hard for Boise State's coach? I personally think the big problem is the looming sanctions are scaring away any top notch coach. I was just thinking, why would any big name want to go there?

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 12:49 PM) Technically since only 20% of the people in this country pay any "real level" of taxes, it operates primarily on their expense. As population levels continue to grow, so will government. Do we need more teachers, fire fighters, police officers, street/sanitation people as we add more people. Of course. This means that government will have increased revenues. They'll obtain this by either general population growth (fixed % multiplied by a larger group) or an increase in the % itself. Should a government always run a deficit.. of course not. In the good times, you should break even or run a slight surplus, in the bad times, smart economic thinking has shown time and time again, that you should run a deficit and borrow. Economics 101. So then you put yourself into Real Time. Has the Federal/State government done what they were supposed to do in the good times... no. But does that mean that they shouldn't do the economic sound thing in the bad times.... two wrongs dont make a right. You are mixing numbers and entities really bad here. Everyone pays sales and usage taxes. I think you are trying to pull the 20% number from federal income taxes, but in reality pretty much everyone who works pays local and states incomes taxes, as the deductions are near minimal. Property taxes are becoming and more and more popular way of generating local income as well, and those apply to almost every single homeowner. Those who do not own homes, pay those taxes on a defacto basis by paying rent to the person who ends up "paying" the taxes. The services you are listing are all stuff done by the lower levels of government, which have been the most aggressive nationwide with tax increases. Also pretty much only the federal government can run an actual deficit. I believe most every state has a balanced budget law of some sort, and local governments mostly do as well.

QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 11:36 AM) I've been out of the loop. Did Dye sign with anyone? Funny how the AL has the DH and few guys want to play that part on a team. I'm all for getting rid of the DH. I guess there are worse options than Thome as D.H. Maybe Kenny hasn't finished going after the over 40 has beens who might have that magical year. He hasn't yet. Supposedly the Rangers had a three million dollar offer out to him, while they had the offer out to Vlad. Vlad accepted first, so JD is still looking.

QUOTE (Brian @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 10:25 AM) You mean KEAMY! I dont get to correct SS much, so I will enjoy this.... With the Looking Glass button being pushed in Season 3, it allowed signals to leave and come to the island. That is my guess. I'm assuming they used a polar bear to move it after Widmore was banished. Hence the skeleton Charlotte found in Tunisia. I'm sure not every little question will be tied up in a nice package at series end, it depends on how picky people want to be instead of just enjoying it. Don't the stat phones still go in and out after that point?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 12:36 PM) WTF is a PITA? Now, as far as mass transit goes, if you really want to argue the inconveniences, then you need to look at your car's much higher costs, and longer commute times, and parking charges at public OR private garages as well. Let's be fair here. But regardless of that, no one is stopping you from driving and parking. All that stopped is the government artificially keeping the price of parking down, with, by the way, YOUR TAX MONEY. So you are in favor these privitization efforts, I assume. Pain In The Ass.

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Jan 12, 2010 -> 11:44 AM) but that's the problem. people think that govt should act like individuals. nothing could be further from the truth. you don't have guaranteed income over time, they do. you have a short life cycle, they don't. your total assets (at some point) will start to go down. theirs will always increase. you may not get more/more money every year, they typically do. you can't borrow at rates near inflation, they can. it's a whole different economic formula. Those three things shouldn't be true. Those sort of things becoming "assumptions" is a big part of the problem which leads to the mentality that governments never have to cut back. Remember governments don't exist on their own. They exist at my expense, which means that they are assumed to be taking more and more of my money, every year, and people don't seem to see a problem with that. That line of thinking just blows my mind. Times are tough, so while I cut back, the popular opinion is that the government is OBLIGATED to take more. Wow, just wow.