southsider2k5

Say a month of "baseball activity" and a 2 to 3 week rehab stint? Maybe the first to second week of August?

I will be honest, I do think the Sox time of reckoning is coming with their pitching. A LOT of their innings are going to come from guys who are doing this for either the first time in their lives when you look at Cease/Kopech/Crochet, or have a history of not being able to pitch this long in Rodon. If they stay healthy? Yeah, they have a good chance. Do I see it happening that all of those guys make it through to the playoffs with availability and health? I wouldn't bet on it. Then we are also assuming that nothing bad happens to the rest of the big three, which is much safer, but you never know. Hopefully the rest of the core also stays healthy.

I don't know that there is any team I am "confident" in winning the World Series. I do think the lack of track record here is something that many other teams don't have.

We are seeing pitching injuries all over baseball from guys who have achieved these kinds of things, so it isn't just them being young and "stretched out". These guys just don't have the advantage of having actually done what they are being asked to do this year.

Unlike most years, I think my biggest worry isn't talent based, but physical limitations. We are going to ask a LOT of guys to put in a total number of innings that they have either never done before, or hasn't been able to do on a consistent basis in their lives. When it comes to Cease, Rodon, Kopech, and Crochet, we are asking guys who are conditioned to be sprinters to run the marathon this year, with no real training at going that distance. Maybe we do get lucky there, but I don't like those odds.

I am enjoying it. But that doesn't mean I can't be willing to face reality to where this team is, and will be in a few months. Honestly I think I am enjoying it more because I don't have expectations of this team winning a World Series to feel like they did something big this year.

Maybe its my line of work, but I wouldn't call anything that fails at best 6 out of 7 times, "confident".

7:1 means 6 times out of 7 they don't win. 10:1 means 9 out of 10 they don't.

Eh, #1, the Sox have to survive this season first with a relative amount of health. If the pitching doesn't stay healthy, this team is toast. So as a part of this we are relying on Carlos Rodon, who has been hurt more often in his career than not. We are relying on Crochet and Kopech who are both looking at innings performances WAY over anything they have in recent years at best, ever at worst. We are relying on Dylan Cease who has a career high of 141 innings. We are relying on Dallas who missed a chunk of 2020, and missed half of 2019, as well as missing big chunks of 2016 and 2017, #2, Vegas odds are not set to determine favorites, they are determined to maximize profits. I mean there are reasons to like the Sox chances, but there are LOT of things that can go very wrong, and a good chunk of them aren't that far out of reality.

Even the statistical models have the Sox at somewhere between 7:1 and 10:1. That is the definition of not confident.

Translation: I don't really know anything, but I want it to appear that I do, so I will cover as many bases as possible to appear knowledgeable.

It is asking too much of those guys to be out the vast majority of the season, and then carry a winning playoff load.

Hahn was pretty optimistic about his getting back to the 2nd phase of his recovery where he will actually be resuming baseball activity. Even when he does that, he has a decent amount of time before he will put on a Sox jersey. He has workouts to go through and then an extended rehab is also going to be in order.

I really don't see this group as ready to be World Champs yet. Playoffs, sure.

With all of the injuries we have had, it is a minor miracle that he isn't yet hurt.

They are feasting against bad teams, but there is nothing wrong with that. Those wins get you to the playoffs just as much as any other win.

I think his injury history will stop him from getting to the top end, but there is definitely room above those numbers if he can stay even relatively healthy.

This could also end the Indians season.

If it were out there, I would absolutely pound a betting line that has Rodon on the DL this season. I would love to see him make it, but I have very little doubt that he will spend some time hurt this season.

To be fair, the Rodon signing thread is WAY more positive.