Dick Allen

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 07:49 AM) I appreciate what projection systems attempt to do, but Dick Allen has a fair point on the accuracy of them. They work as a point of reference, but nobody should be putting too much stock into them. Honest question, but what does Pecota project for Melky this year? I'm guessing he's being unfairly punished for the season he had a spinal tumor. I received my BP yesterday. Melky was supposed to be decent with about 12 homers, the other numbers pretty average. I don't have the book with me. They had Avi hitting 7, and Abreu 23. They also had Abreu driving in 74. They are normally very conservative with everyone. The write ups made Q seem like he was going to be a Cy Young contender, but he made the top ten in WAR depreciation. If all of that happens, I agree their 78 win projection will look good. But unless there are season ending injuries, I'm pretty certain Avi and Jose are going to blow by those numbers.

I would say the 2005-2006 offseason was pretty sweet. Coming off winning it all. Adding Thome, even Vazquez, as a 5th starter. The offseason between the 1990 and 1991 season was nice. A young team, a new stadium. Anticipating a full year of Frank Thomas and Alex Fernandez. Adding Chuck Hough and Tim Raines. Even Cory Snyder was decent. Then in the spring they signed Bo.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jan 28, 2015 -> 12:26 PM) Cowley is complete and utter trash. It sickens me how much this gets talked about because it is impossible for players not to listen to it and for Thibbs voice not to be a little sabotaged because of these reports. Because of them, there is always that little bit of doubt in a players mind and it sucks. I'm glad Paxson came out so strong after Van Gundy's statements. I wish the Bulls would throw a few mill Thibbs way to shut all of it up. This team is good enough that the money spent telling everyone, see, we told you he was our guy, would be so worth it in terms of wins / losses. Gar is a good GM, but his stupid freaking ego created this mess with the whole Ron Adams fiasco. Dumb. Get rid of one of the top assistants and piss off your head coach because he ran his mouth because he, like any coach, wanted to contend and wanted to win now (that is the job of a coach..to ask for the best team possible and try to put the best guys out there to win...the job of the GM is to control and construct the roster to the best interest of the franchise). Look at the mess you created. I wish this was totally a Cowley production, but KC Johnson has said there is a big disconnect, a lot of tension and he wouldn't be surprised if Thibs is coaching elsewhere next season.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 30, 2015 -> 12:37 AM) If you are going to be so adamant that projection systems are as useless and baseless as you claim they are, and that anybody can do this sort of thing and be similarly accurate, I am challenging you to create your own projection system that incorporates whatever data you want to come up with legitimate predictions and projections for the 2000 or so players they project, and then you can use those projections to help determine your predicted wins and losses. In the meantime, quit pissing in everyone's cheerios. Exactly what are they used for? Baseball is a game not a mathematical equation. Every player can have the exact same stats and teams could have a wide range of records. I actually read BP every year. My copy came yesterday. I doubt anyone in the White Sox front office is losing sleep over these projections. I also would imagine if they did win 78 games, like they are projected from this system, Robin Ventura would be considered even a bigger idiot than he currently is considered. LOL at accuracy. This system was off 39 games between the projected first and last place team in the AL East last season. They had the team that won 96 games finishing in last, and the team they projected to win 89 wins up in last.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 08:55 PM) This stuff: i don't know what that has to do with projected wins in January.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 04:02 PM) But again, no one does. It's a strawman argument (that I know you're not making) that dodges the actual utility of these systems. What exactly is the purpose of the BP projections?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 03:16 PM) Again, missing the point completely. Of course. Why don't we compare these "standings" with what Harold Reynolds picks the day before the season, with what the posters here pick when that thread pops up, and I would bet you anything, there isn't a significant difference in accuracy. If you need PECOTA to come out to tell you what the talent level on each team is, that is very telling. It has been proven that teams significantly outperform and significantly underperform their projection.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 03:03 PM) sigh. you're wrong but you won't be convinced, so there's really no point arguing it. you're the Hawk of projection systems. PECOTA has spoken. No reason to play the season. The FACTS are, even if you think these projections are beyond accurate, the Sox are 4 games out of the playoffs. You said they average about 7 wins above their projection. So, there should be no reason to think they aren't contenders at this point.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 02:37 PM) We seemingly do this every year, but projections don't mean nothing. They establish a baseline by which we can try and determine how good teams are. Taking them at their exact word and saying that anything over 79 wins is "overachieving" shouldn't be done either. A projection of 79 wins suggests that the Sox have holes around the team, but that they should be an OK team. Baltimore outperformed their projection by 21 games. Boston underperformed theirs by 18. 39 games difference. They are fine conversion and argument starters, but the reality is, things happen. Players get hurt. Some suck, some are great who have no business being great. Projecting wins in January is silly.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 02:22 PM) They don't mean *nothing* or they wouldn't exist. And BP wouldn't have the reputation it does. The reason White Sox fans feel like you do, is because the Sox consistently over perform their PECOTA, but the reason for that is Cooper and Schneider. We've had the least DL days in baseball for the last 15 years. That's what allows us to outperform the projections. Other teams don't have that. 2014 PECOTA projection: Boston 89-73 Baltimore 75-87 The White Sox and Orioles were projected to win the same amount of games. They mean didley.

QUOTE (Reddy @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 02:11 PM) It's easy to disagree with PECOTA Sox projections - the sox beat them almost every year, sometimes by double digits. On average the sox beat the projection by 7 wins per season, putting us at 85, which is great, but just short of the playoffs unless everything hits our way on the luck front. If they beat them by 7 games and everyone else just matches theirs, the Sox win the division by 3 games. The Royals were projected to win 79 games in 2014. Projections are projections. They are fun to argue about, but in the end, mean nothing.

The 78 win projection from PECOTA needs to be taken with a grain of salt. The others in the division aren't so great either: Detroit 82 wins Cleveland 81 wins KC 72 wins Minnesota 70 wins They are right there.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:55 PM) The other thing to mention here is that if you are of the belief that the Sox have more money to spend, or should be sending prospects to trade for players to finish out the 25 man roster, it isn't all black or white. If the Sox leave themselves a scenario where they don't spend all of their resources, that now allows them to evaluate the team through April and May, identify what they believe will help the team the most, and then still have the flexibility to identify a player in another organization who can help them down the stretch. Part of baseball is the unknown happens a lot. It isn't a crazy scenario to envision at least one of the guys the Sox are counting on being a bust this year. Heck it is probably a likely scenario that at least one guy who is an assumption now, will bust. There is also a decent chance that someone comes out of no where to fill a hole shock on the team. If the teams blows all of its resources now, they won't maintain the flexibility to fix problems later. The research has shown midseason acquisitions rarely pay big dividends. I hope the Sox get away from the philosophy of being OK being a little short thinking adding in July will put them over the top. That hasn't worked. If you are trying to win, try to be as strong as you can day 1. Hahn has admitted they still are not where they want to be. It obviously takes some time. But there is no doubt they can win. There have been seasons they weren't as highly thought of as they are now, and made the playoffs. This team might win 95 games. They might lose 95 games. No one really knows until the games are played.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 10:23 AM) There's been a lot of "why didn't we go get the final couple pieces?" and "prospects are just prospects are bust rate Mitchell ahead of Trout blah blah" lately, and I think that both types of complaints are short-sighted; they don't take the RH master plan or the current competitive state of the MLB into perspective. I think they represent obsolete lines of thought that describe the environment ten or so years ago but are not relevant or useful in the climate today. But I haven't been able to communicate my argument very well, partially because I'm not sure I even UNDERSTOOD my argument very well. But with yesterday's release of Keith Law's system rankings, I think it all finally makes sense in a concrete way. Let me ask you this: When was the last time the Sox went into the season billed as a legitimate playoff contender AND had a top-half ranked farm system? THIS is what it's supposed to look like. This is the "sustainable competitiveness" model in its infancy. It doesn't matter if you think Law is too high or too low on the system or Sullivan is too low on the Sox 2015 chances, the point is that they are in the running and somehow still on the upswing, both in terms of the ML roster AND the farm system. This team has flaws, and we should admit it. If the team doesn't meet our expectations, I think it will be due to some combination of our lack of depth being exposed and the fact that we always assume that our superstars will never regress from exceptional performances for some reason. But there's no question that the team is a "contender." And unlike the previous KW-branded regime, it came without the cost of ruining the future. So next time you feel like JR is stingy or that RH values prospects too much, look how far RH has taken this ship in just two years, and look how much brighter things look from ALL angles than they have since October of 2005. It's about balance and patience. It'll probably mean we will always be able to find holes in our team and always wish they would have spent $20m more, but if they can avoid tipping the scales too much in either direction (present or future), we can look forward to going into every season with justified hopes for the playoffs. The 2000 White Sox won 95 games and had the #1 ranked farm system in baseball. They missed the playoffs the next 4 seasons. Prospects still have to develop, major leaguers still have to perform. You can do everything that seems correct, but sustained success is never guaranteed. This team had all the advantages for a while in their division. They should have been like Detroit is now, like Cleveland in the late 90's, then Minnesota, where the playoffs were a given, but for some reason, not necessarily on paper, they had a second place mindset. After they won in 2005, and were dominating the first half of 2006, I thought they were going to have a run which would have snowballed by keeping the park full and making broadcasts more lucrative. It didn't happen. Hopefully, this time it does.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 11:33 AM) That's why I said 2017. If we don't win this year, 2016 looks like a "retooling" year because you get several contracts off the books at the end of the year and you start working extremely raw rookies into the lineup. You could have said the same thing about 2015 a few months ago. Unless something goes horribly wrong and there are a lot of major injuries, the White Sox are done "retooling" for a while. Hahn admitted they are not quite where they want to be yet, but expected to be closer in the near future.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 10:30 AM) I hope it works and all, but Danks hasn't shown many signs of being pre-surgery John Danks. I was optimistic he would come back to form last year, but lost most of that optimism as the season wore on. I feel like the John Danks we used to know is gone. From Hahn in the seminars, the White Sox aren't expecting Danks to be what he used to be, but do think he can bring great value as an innings eater.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 28, 2015 -> 06:12 PM) I am so tired of hearing stuff like this. The Kansas City Royals hit 95 home runs last year. The Chicago White sox hit 155. The Chicago White Sox were 8th in the AL in runs scored. The Royals were 9th. We hit 60 more home runs than they did while scoring a total of 9 more runs than they did. The Kansas City Royals play in Kaufman Stadium. The Chicago White Sox play in USCF. Power is a definite must.

QUOTE (LDF @ Jan 28, 2015 -> 02:50 PM) i will discuss the bolded. my beef about a startng sp of front end quality is well worn out. the sox needs a pitcher, a pitcher who is better than Danks. someone who can be counted on in important games to be relied on if Sale gets hurt, or to spot start for Jeff S and Q. Rodon had not pitched 100 innings at a Major league level, how many innings are going to be trusted to him?? i will preach 1 thing i have always preach. do not depend on "what if" and "prospects" to produce as potential, not when the system is this thin and the ability to go far in the playoff. I agree to some extent. Some of the crap the White Sox have been counting on the past few years was a joke. Most rookies struggle a bit. Counting on Micah Johnson or Sanchez to be really good is a stretch. You do need some extra starters. But Rodon is one of the better prospects in the game. Johnson was supposed to be a good prospect. Beck, I would be dissappointed if they counted on him to be successful, and Montas, while talented, doesn't have a whole lot of work to hang his hat. Another starter would be great, but right now, unless you are going to spend a ton, you aren't going to get anything better than John Danks.

QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Jan 28, 2015 -> 02:38 PM) Crazy as it sounds, you could actually argue that Quentin makes some sense for this team right now! Quentin's knee makes him pretty much a DH-only at this point. Or pretty close.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 28, 2015 -> 02:06 PM) Which is an excellent point. Especially considering we're talking about 'depth' here -- our bullpen doesn't need back-end studs here, and stashing decent starters is always tricky because they want to find regular gigs. Using Hector Noesi as a mid-innings reliever solves the bullpen depth issue and I'd LOVE him as an injury contingency starter much more than as our defacto 4 or 5 man. The Sox still think Johnson could bounce back. They also like Beck and seem to think Montas could be a starter at the major league level in 2015. If Montas was ready, and Johnson can get back to where he was, the depth is there, but they are a couple of huge ifs. Not counting Abreu as a prospect last year, Johnson and Davidson were the most heralded and supposedly most ready, and they were awful. Hopefully, 2015 is a different story, not just with them.

QUOTE (kevo880 @ Jan 28, 2015 -> 01:54 PM) I'm not loving the options for the 4th OF, but that's a damn good bench if you ask me. I would be fine with Beckham, Bonifacio, or any of the backup catcher options starting on any given day. With Beckham in the fold, isn't Bonifacio technically the 4th OF at least on the days Gordon plays?

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jan 28, 2015 -> 01:50 PM) Or they could have eaten ZERO DOLLARS by non-tendering him in December like they should have. The White Sox won't eat money with Viciedo.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 28, 2015 -> 01:48 PM) I like the move given he stays on the bench, maybe plays against LHP from time to time, and maybe a defensive replacement for Micah in late innings. I am actually pretty upset about the DFA of Viciedo. My reasoning, he is only 25 who can still hit the ball out of the ballpark. Yes, he's a bad OFer, he costs 4.4 million, but with all of that he still has tons of power that you cannot teach or get easily, I would of taken the financial hit that he brings and designate Wilkins who is older and hasn't shown anything in the MLB. I would of kept Viciedo as the 4th OFer. I like Tank more than most and for the reasons you give, but unless someone goes down, there are limited ABs. I can't see Tank flourishing in that situation. It wouldn't surprise me if he went somewhere and became a decent bat.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Jan 28, 2015 -> 01:40 PM) Do we actually know that though? Reassure me. See the post below yours. Hahn was looking for a bench piece. Beckham is a bench piece unless he outplays the others.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jan 28, 2015 -> 01:45 PM) In totality, a bench of Beckham, Bonifacio, Soto, and Shuck doesn't look too bad. I wish Shuck hit homers.