Dick Allen

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 02:16 PM) Then we will agree to disagree. I just find absolutely no meaning in W-L. -ERA tells me how many earned runs a pitcher gives up on average -WHIP tells me how many base runners a pitcher allows on average -IP tells me, generally, how durable and/or efficient a pitcher is (though it tells a lot, though not all is incredibly telling of talent) -GS also tells me about durability; thus, IP/GS is important to me as well -FIP tells me approximate talent level of the pitcher this year -xFIP tells me what he should probably be putting up, given his peripherals -K/9 tells me a little about his stuff and how efficient he is about getting outs (which improves consistency) -BB/9 tells me how good a guys control is and whether it will ever typically get him in trouble -HR/9 tells me how many homers a guy gives up -HR/FB tells me how unlucky the pitcher has been about giving up home runs (typically 10% in all circumstances) -GO/AO tells me how good a guy is about producing ground balls which, while more likely to become hits, are very unlikely to be anything more than singles I could go on. On the other hand, W-L tells me how good the pitcher's team was, or how the team performed when he was on the mound. A pitcher has very, very little control over that. He can pitch to his defense and in NL parks, he can help try and score runs when up at the plate. Otherwise, all he can do is pitch as well as he can and then hope the team wins the game. Theoretically, Chris Sale gives up a lead off homer every game he pitches, but then retires the next 27 by striking them all out. His opposing pitcher loads the bases every inning but gets double plays and keeps the team off the board. At the end of the year, Chris Sale is 0-32 while opposing pitchers are 32-0. Did Chris Sale really deserve to lose 32 games, or should he be upset at his team for allowing him to lose 32 games? If it is all about how the team performs, can you explain why pitcher's ERAs and all their other numbers are generally better when they gets wins vs. when they get losses and no decisions. Obviously W-L isn't the best, but guys who win a lot of games generally have the other numbers that match up to showing they are pitching very well. While a guy who is 8-12 could have numbers that show he is pitching much better than the record shows, it is less likely a guy who wins 17 or 18 games has numbers that show he actually has pitched horribly. A starting pitcher with a lot of wins is going to pencil out pretty well sabermetrically.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 02:12 PM) The problem is he can't hit the ball. He'd be buzzkill. If you want Buck, I'd just keep Flowers. Yeah, Buck doesn't seem like an upgrade over what is already there. I wouldn't understand the point.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 01:33 PM) I think you are right. I have this sick feeling John Buck is going to end up a White Sox. I'd prefer we make a deal for somebody besides Buck and simply dump Flowers. I can take Phegley and a new guy at catcher. I also have a feeling Hahn has more moves in him. I bet he dumps DeAza or Viciedo, just a feeling. I read where Buddy Bell is a big fan of Buck so you may be need to keep in mind where the bathroom is at all times.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 01:20 PM) No doubt about it. Odds are pretty good that at least one of the guys we just got, turns into a bust. Hope the AZ guys play like the last offensive prospect the Sox received from them. TCQ.

QUOTE (staxx @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 12:18 PM) I feel like often times many "blue chip" prospects end up playing poorly and are in reality overhyped. There have been a lot of 50-100 ranked players who wound up becoming very good players. If none of Abreu, Eaton, Garcia or Davidson bust, Hahn is one of the best GMs in baseball. He's probably upper tier if one busts. Prospects break your heart. BP actually has a feature named that. If Davidson is more Crede than Fields, if Garcia is more Maggs than Jeff Abbott, if Eaton is more Dykstra than John Cangelosi, Hahn's work will try to be copied everywhere.

One thing that might make the Sox more inclined to trade Viciedo, isn't his agent now Boras?

Or it could be by mistake, or Viciedo might not have been able to make it. I wouldn't read too much into it.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 08:48 AM) $20 million for Gavin Floyd when he might only pitch a season a half and wasn't exactly an All-Star the last 2-3 seasons isn't exactly a huge bargain for the Orioles. It is interesting because that's his hometown region and everyone assumed he would end up in BALT eventually, but he preferred the NL and the Braves' track record with pitchers. Maybe the only way to reach those incentives was pitching 200 or at least 150+ or 175+ innings in 2014 and 2015. I would agree. The incentives were obviously not easily attainable or Gavin Floyd turning down a chance to make $20 million the next 2 years coming off his surgery is crazy. But the thing is, if he doesn't show he can reach those types of numbers, who is going to pay him more than what the Orioles numbers with the incentives? It must have been a very low guarantee both seasons.

I saw an amazing number yesterday. Since the beginning of the 2011 season, Tom Brady has a 26.8% completion rate in the end zone to receivers not named Gronk.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 08:49 AM) I think Hahn is brining in someone to compete. I personally like Jones as the set up man. I wouldn't mind Bailey depending on his health. He doesn't seem to be linked with any team, and being a closer is probably what he wants. I think an incentive-lased deal maybe multi-year. At worst, if he performs, you can flip him.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 08:29 AM) Yes, I note this...he's given up guys who have established themselves on the MLB roster, but in over a year, he hasn't traded away anyone from the minors. I think that's a trend. It could be, or it might be that he can't acquire what he wants with the guys who are available in his system. KW got ripped for trading minor leaguers. Gio haunts him. Everyone else........who cares? It might have cost the Charlotte Knights some wins, but not the White Sox.

Why would anyone come close to the asking price for Jeff S. when you can sign a guy like Garza for ultimately the same coin and keep the prospects Theo wants to buy himself even more time before he has to start answering for all the losing?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 08:19 AM) One interesting thing to note is that Ricky has not traded away a single "prospect" at any point this offseason. Or hell, I can't remember if he's done so at all. Last offseason we didn't trade for anyone and we didn't sign anyone who cost us a draft pick, this offseason we haven't traded away anyone from our minor leagues and we haven't signed anyone that cost us a draft pick. I think that's a trend as well. Hahn isn't "flipping prospects for players". He has traded 2 of his young guys with value however in Santiago and Reed. It would really be awesome if all these young players pan out.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 08:12 AM) Striking out slightly less than Reynolds is a big deal, frankly. If he struck out slightly less but hit fewer HR, there's a good chance it would make him a more consistent ballplayer. He can't because that's not his game, fine I get that...but the difference between 200K's a year and 150K's a year is very large. That is where the assumption that a strike out is just like any other out, therefore they don't matter comes into play. If he has 50 less strikeouts, those other 50 ABs are either walks, HBP, or balls in play. Assuming they are all balls in play and he has a .300 bipba, that is 15 more hits, which is 30 more points on the batting average and OBP based on 500 AB. A strikeout is NOT like any other out.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 04:20 PM) So very doubting this will happen. We're not there yet -- not to the point where we blow our cash, no matter how tempting it might be. It seems like a player of this sort posts every year or two so the opportunity will come. It just doesn't seem to jive with the whole "young AND inexpensive" thing. Heck, even a borderline-blockbuster contract like Abreu's might be a cost-effective down the road, whereas $120MM+ to sign Tanaka is not likely to carry the same value. This guy is beyond special. If the Sox added him to the rotation, they really would be setting themselves up for years. If they draft another pitcher with the #3 pick, their rotation s potentially Greg Maddux Atlanta Braves good in a year or so. A couple of these trades pan out, a Beckham or Viciedo plays up to their potential, you have a sustained success roster.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 04:03 PM) You get the point though. We're pretending Abreu's money doesn't count against payroll if we quote $83 million. Fine, spread it out however you want, it still is getting paid, in addition to a big expansion of draft spending this year. Tanaka's posting fee you're talking an extra $5 million a year in off the books spending. This is a unique opportunity, although it is obviously a very small possibility, but IMO it is something you stretch the budget to participate.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 04:00 PM) That's only if you don't count Abreu's signing bonus. If you're talking about Abreu's signing bonus, a posting fee for Tanaka, and big spending on the draft, you're talking about a huge amount being spent that isn't being counted in that payroll. A $20 million posting fee, for example, plus a chunk of Abreu's signing bonus, plus $11 million in draft spending, and we're talking $35-40 million not being counted even before Tanaka's actual salary. He makes so much more sense for a team that isn't working in so many rookies. The $20 million is done in installments.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 03:54 PM) BP BA BA list comes out in January, as does the FutureSox list. I do know Phil Rogers has had a lot of input with BA on White Sox lists in the past. It was all part of Wilder's scheme. He would talk the frauds up with Phil to kind of hide his crime.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 03:49 PM) Had an off-convo with John Manuel from BA. Pretty sure Hawkins is not in the Top 3. Abreu, Johnson, and likely Anderson are your BA Top 3 (based on his hints about infielders). Davidson 4. Semien is likely in the 6-10 range, my guess. He wouldn't give straight answers, but that is the picture I got. BP top 3 is Johnson, Anderson , Hawkins. I guess they didn't consider Abreu a prospect, but he certainly would have to be considered #1 if he is.

I think Hahn will be thrilled with 3 out of Abreu, Garcia, Eaton and Davidson working out. But I am sure he is praying Abreu is one of the three. It is worth a shot. If they all work out, you have a new core on the fly.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 03:19 PM) You're probably right as far as what they have. How someone could have Hawkins higher than Davidson or Semien I'm not so sure but this isn't the right place to discuss that. It is all about the ceiling. Hawkins still hit with power. I read some scouting report that if he could learn to shorten his swing and use all fields the scout swears he will be a star. That is easier said than done.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 02:50 PM) This trade has the 100 percent Soxtalk seal of approval. Damn it, Davidson is going to suck. No offense to anyone, but not only Soxtalk, just about every Sox message board. Scary.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 09:49 AM) Pretty sure the Cubs own a portion as well. I dont think Reinsdorf plays into it at all 20% Comcast 20%Bulls 20% Blackhawks 20% Cubs 20% White Sox

I read an article about the Cubs perhaps starting their own network. The problem is programing. Sure they will have people watch the games if they are good, but what about all the other time when there isn't a game? There are only so many times you can run an Inside Ernie Banks special.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 07:41 AM) No. I hope he does well in 2014. Then I don't understand your original reply, because that is all I was writing, and you apparently agree.