Dick Allen

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Dec 1, 2008 -> 10:27 PM) See my post above. SLG% is not a necessary tool for a lead-off hitter. OPS is a stupid way to measure the performance of lead-off hitters. How about OBP? Taveras has been below league average in 3 of his 4 major league seasons. He's fine batting ninth or eighth, but leading off is a waste.

I love Harold Baines as much as anybody, but he's not a HOFer.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 1, 2008 -> 02:11 PM) The Reds just signed Ben Davis to a minor league deal.... As a pitcher.

Taveras is better than Owens, and if he only cost Broadway, even if he never batted and came in to pinch run and play defense, you would be getting something for nothing. He's certainly not the lead-off man answer, but really how can anyone be opposed to getting him if Broadway was the price? Broadway in Colorado? As Dick Enberg would say, "Oh my!". If his cost were good prospects, then I would say no. KW has traded away a lot of garbage that was thought to be better than it really was recently. After the top tier in the White Sox system, I think just about anybody is worth giving up for the skill set Taveras brings, and I'm no big fan of his.

QUOTE (scenario @ Nov 29, 2008 -> 08:56 AM) According to Griffey's agent Brian Goldberg... "Kenny realizes that he probably would be a middle-ground guy when it comes to salary," he said. "He also understands that a contract could include some incentives, but I don't think he'll price himself out of a job. He's never been about being the highest paid." Goldberg said Griffey would be receptive to a one-year contract offer from "the right team in the right place," but wouldn't be any more specific than that. I'm just thinking that if the Sox do suddenly seem serious about retaining Griffey that it would be further evidence that a Dye deal may be coming. Regarding what they could cut him to... I don't believe the 80/70 rules apply to free agents... only to players that are under a team's control at the time of the arbitration. Yes. The White Sox could offer him the minimum right now and he could accept it. If Dye happened to be traded, it wouldn't shock me Griffey came back at about half the price. The question I would have though is would he be a RF? KW went out of his way to explain how playing CF was much easier than RF (I'm sure it was just spin because a real CF wasn't going to get much playing time with the 2008 White Sox). I'd probably stay away from Griffey at this point, even if he was willing to play for $5-6 million, unless you had a spot for him to DH at least half the time. You can blame his knee for his lack of production last year, but that's part of the problem. He gets hurt almost every year. Chances are, pushing 40, that trend will continue.

QUOTE (scenario @ Nov 28, 2008 -> 09:39 PM) The more I think about it... I would not be shocked if the Sox traded Dye and re-signed Griffey to a 1-year deal. At the very least, I'm beginning to believe that the Sox will offer Griffey arbitration. We'll see about the arbitration on Monday. Why would the Sox offer him arbitration? He makes way too much money. He'd be more expensive than Dye in all probability. And if there really is no serious negotiation taking place, why would he agree to turn down the arbitration making himself a little less desirable to other teams because they would have to surrender a draft choice? I wouldn't be shocked if the Sox traded Dye, that Griffey would return, very cheaply. But arbitration, no way.

QUOTE (Tony82087 @ Nov 27, 2008 -> 11:08 PM) Very interesting thread here. http://www.talkingchop.com/2008/11/24/6693...azquez#comments Again, I would love Kelly Johnson starting at 2nd for the Sox. Very interesting. I love how those guys are under the Javy spell. The one post said he's very underrated. His peripherals usually are much better than his ERA. Its amazing how 8 or 9 strikeouts in 5 or 6 innings get a lot of people to ignore the runs allowed.

QUOTE (Gregory Pratt @ Nov 26, 2008 -> 09:22 PM) That's fine, but here's my problem with that: it's just one game. I don't know if this example exists in real-life, but it's akin to pointing out that one time, Shaq was getting The Treatment, and he wound up scoring his free throws and the other team lost because of it. That doesn't mean he's a clutch free throw shooter or a good one. Vazquez, in his career, is bad in pressure situations and "big games" and big "spots." In hundreds of games, not one or two. That isn't to say he has his virtues, but the ability to win games when his team needs them isn't really one of them. Exactly. Its like saying a guy who hits .125 in what are deemed to be clutch situations are clutch players because that one or two or however many times, they did get a hit. When you make $11.5 million, your not supposed to fold like a cheap card table down the stretch.

What I don't understand is if a baseball player uses steroids he's marked for life and many are just shunned. If you get caught juicing in the NFL, its a 4 week vacation, and then back to normal.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 26, 2008 -> 04:29 PM) He's underperformed much of his career, but he's "fooled" Brian Cashman, Kenny Williams, and whoever was D'Backs GM when they traded for him. The point is, Javy's ceiling is high and his floor is where he is. IMO, Sonnanstine's ceiling was what he did last year, and his floor is somewhere in Triple A. Edit: People getting excited over the possibility of acquiring Andy Sonnanstine are probably the same people who got all excited after Lance Broadway's start against the Royals during '07 garbage time. I wouldn't be excited about Sonnastine, but I'd be less excited about paying Javy $23 million the next 2 seasons. If my choice was Sonnanstine + $11 million a season to play with or Javy, I'd pick Sonnanstine. I really couldn't care less about ceilings and floors with guys who have been around a decade or so. I look for results.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 26, 2008 -> 04:11 PM) No, see that's the thing. Andy isn't better than Javy, at all, and if you adjust for park I'm sure their numbers are a lot closer. Basically, Javy had a bad year. We all saw in 2007 what Javy can do in a good year. We all have seen what Javy's ceiling is. In his first year, Sonnanstine has already surpassed his ceiling IMO. When the league adjusts to him he's going to suck, and his stuff is so poor that unlike Javy he's not going to have to the stuff to keep him out there. Look at that BAA, watch the guy pitch, and tell me he's better than Javy. Javy has been doing his thing in the Majors since 1998, and Javy's struggles are mainly because the opposition just waits on him to throw a lot of pitches and start leaving his offspeed stuff up in the zone. Andy Sonnanstine got away with hanging his offspeed stuff every single time he pitched against us last year, and as soon as our hitters took the right approach against him, he started getting hit and then was pulled. He's not going to get away with that next year IMO. Javy has sucked 4 of the last 5 years. A GM counting on Javy "hitting his ceiling" better have a resume ready.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 11:32 PM) I see that his performance-to-cost ratio is very favorable, but I just don't know how anyone can deal real talent for him. With someone like Javy, yeah he makes a lot more money, but you still have the upside of a #2-like season with the downside of a #3/#4-type season. Sonnanstine just strikes me as the type of guy who is always on the edge of disaster, every single game, every single situation. At least Javy has the ability to take over a game and dominate. I just don't know how any team can watch Andy Sonnanstine pitch and say, "You know what? I'm gonna go ahead and trade one of my best pitching prospects, a guy with twice the ceiling, for a junkballer who can spot his junk. That sounds like a great idea." Paul Byrd is capable of doing the same thing and doesn't cost any top talent, just tha cheddah. I don't even know if Byrd is a Type B free agent. 2008 AS 13-9 4.38 ERA 1.29 WHIP .277 BAA 2 post season wins 400,000k salary JV 12-16 4.67 ERA 1.32 WHIP .263 BAA 0 post season wins 11,500,000 salary. If, as you say, Javy's downside is a #3 or #4 starter, this guy is already better than that and he makes peanuts. Javy has only had 1 year the last 5 with an ERA lower than AS posted in 2008. Could you imagine what Javy's ERA was if he had to face Boston and NY as much as Tampa pitchers do? I don't see how any team can watch Javy pitch and think they are going to get a guy who is going to be anything but average at best when all the results are in, at a price which is a lot more than average. I hope KW can find someone who thinks Javy will put it all together consistently for them.

I read an article on how arbitrators come to their decisions. Say the White Sox offered Uribe $4 million and Juan asked for $5,999,999. The arbitrator decides which figure is closer to the players worth. If he or she came to the conclusion that Uribe was a $5 million a year guy, he would get $5,999,999. If he thought he was a $4,999,999 guy, he would get $4 million. Because of this system, teams almost always have to offer a raise even if the player doesn't earn it. Cabrera will make more money in 2009 if he took arbitration than he will on the open market. While you wouldn't think he would take arbitration, there's always the possibility he thinks conditions will be better next year and take the Sox up on it. That's probably $11 or $12 million you will pay to someone you consider a cancer for a season just to gain late first round draft picks. If he's not signed by someone before the deadline, I think the White Sox will decline arb for him.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 11:24 PM) Have you heard anything specifically about White Sox season ticket renewals and cutting payroll...or just the generic comments about the economy from KW, moving towards a younger and more athletic roster...I think it was the Barry Rozner article about having 75 cents to spend out of a dollar instead of 50 like it used to be. People looking for upgrades have been told it will be difficult because renewels are at 95-97% KW said he was slashing payroll per the Rozner column. Those who live for the chance to criticize the South Siders will no doubt enjoy hearing that the Sox won't be spending as much as they did in 2008, when they were fifth in baseball at $121 million. "First of all, it's a continuation of a plan to get younger that started two years ago,'' Williams said Monday from Arizona. "But secondly, this was going to be needed anyway as a result of the economy. "We can't hide from it. At the end of the day, the bottom line is you can't spend a dollar if you only have 75 cents, and we're talking about millions here. "These are serious issues and we can't live with our heads in the sand.''

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 04:12 PM) Well, I guess Burnett may have had better seasons than Javy, but I'll take Javy's healthy arm over Burnett's injury-ridden self any day of the week....I actually do think Javy would command between $13-15 million per. No way Vazquez would get that coming off the season he had. Especially the finish. The owners new "collusion" will be the economy. The big guys will get their money. The rest is a crapshoot, and it will all be blamed on the economy. Read Barry Rozner's column today, with quotes from KW about trimming payroll. He said he was going to anyway to go younger, but with the economy being what it is......................the White Sox raised ticket prices. I think a lot of free agents are going to get a lot less than they hoped for.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 03:49 PM) 4/52 for Dempster Lowe wants at least 4/60 Sheets will end up paid heavily despite the fact that he's never healthy for a full season, and is more of a 2/3 than an ace like he's talked up as even when he is healthy Burnett is going to pick up a bad contract, at least 4/60 or probably more And all of those guys who haven't signed will cost a first round draft pick to any top-15 team that signs them should those players move on to new organizations. Javy would get 15 or 16M per in this market, so he's definitely a bargain salary-wise (and in years if you don't like the idea of Sheets or Lowe or Burnett at 4 or 5 years) and I highly doubt teams think otherwise. Perhaps they are balking at Kenny's asking price but I doubt Kenny is asking a "bargain" price. Kenny will let the market shake itself out and then deal with the desperate teams once a few guys sign, and he'll only make a deal right now if his high asking price is met. BTW, WTF does Bill James have to do with anything? His projections mean jack s***, no more than the average fan who says "I think Javy will do awesome next year," or "I think Javy will suck next year." In fact your average scout or fan's prediction would probably be a much better bet since they actually watch the player instead of using their calculators to make a dumbass statement. There are indications that Sheets, if offered arbitration, would accept it. Dempster is coming off a huge year. Lowe may want that money, but he won't get it. Burnett will get it but he's better than Javy and still is overpaid. The draft picks don't mean as much as you think, especially with teams picking near the bottom. That's a couple million saved instead of giving to a guy who probably is a longshot anyway, and nowhere near as good as the guy they signed. There is no way Javy gets $15-16 million in today's market. Bill James has been coming out with these books for years. Some guys he gets exactly right, some guys he gets wrong. He works as a consultant or something along those lines for the Red Sox. They seem to admire his work. If he thinks Javy will have a 3.80 ERA next year, maybe the Red Sox will pay up to get the loser. I also think this time next year, Dempster's contract will seem ridiculous. I think he'll get torched in 2009.

The problem with flipping Vazquez is it appears other MLB teams don't find his $11.5 million salary as big of bargain as the Soxtalk consensus. Although maybe Boston would be interested. In Bill James (I believe the Red Sox still employ him) new book for 2009 he has Vazquez with a 3.80 ERA which is lower than he has for any other White Sox starter.

To expect a 19 year old to start in the major leagues is beyond a reach. KW said yesterday they are trimming payroll, (even though they are increasing ticket prices). If he trims it a lot, and the team falls on its face, like it most undoubtedly would with Rock Raines' projected line-up, KW would be back to being the village idiot.

QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 01:48 PM) Dye for Bailey and Nick Masset. I heard this Masset has Jenks like stuff. Just a tick below.

Raising ticket prices and cutting payroll won't fly if they don't win. Barry Rozner says they will be cutting payroll. From the Daily Herald: When the top athlete on the planet loses a big endorsement deal with Buick, as Tiger Woods did Monday, and unless you've had the door to your cave slammed shut the last few months, then you know things are kinda tough out there. So, yes, the White Sox will be trimming payroll this winter. That news, via Sox GM Ken Williams, came Monday, because unlike the very few teams in sports who are immune to recessions, the Sox will need to keep an eye on expenses. Those who live for the chance to criticize the South Siders will no doubt enjoy hearing that the Sox won't be spending as much as they did in 2008, when they were fifth in baseball at $121 million. "First of all, it's a continuation of a plan to get younger that started two years ago,'' Williams said Monday from Arizona. "But secondly, this was going to be needed anyway as a result of the economy. "We can't hide from it. At the end of the day, the bottom line is you can't spend a dollar if you only have 75 cents, and we're talking about millions here. "These are serious issues and we can't live with our heads in the sand.'' Williams has already subtracted $25 million in the form of Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher, Juan Uribe and Joe Crede, and you have to think he'd like to get Javier Vazquez and his $11.5 million off the books, though it doesn't help that Vazquez has a limited no-trade blocking deals to N.L. West and A.L. West teams. As for the 2009 payroll, Williams said, "The number will depend on what we do over the next few weeks. Jerry (Reinsdorf) just tells me to break even and try to win the World Series. "I'm charged with making sure we can keep the lights on, and do it in a competitive way.'' It's difficult to argue with Williams' results over the past eight years. "It's pretty evident that I'm trying to continue on with a plan to turn the roster over and infuse the team with young talent,'' Williams said. "In the meantime, we'll continue to monitor where revenues are and keep having dialogue, but I'm more focused on how to put the best team on field that's more athletic and younger. "So my goals, aside from the economy, were going to result in a lower payroll anyway.'' Meanwhile, some sports teams around the country may see a 25 percent drop in ticket sales next year, though we're not suggesting that could happen on the South Side. "How can sports not be affected by it?'' Williams asked. "People work hard for their discretionary dollars and entertainment is often the thing that's cut first. "But we survive in sports for times just like this, when people need a little break from real life for a few hours a day, when they can be passionate about their teams. "We have a responsibility to keep our sport healthy, and I have to do my part to make sure of that.'' It does appear KW has a quarter more to work with, 75 cents vs. the old 50. but isn't it hypocritical to be using the economy as a reason to cut payroll while at the same time raising ticket prices 10%?

QUOTE (YASNY @ Nov 24, 2008 -> 01:00 PM) Yes, I'd rather go with an unproven player like Getz. How else can the Sox minor leaguers get the chance to prove themselves if they never get a shot? Maybe if they were better players they would get a shot? That said, I don't know what the fatuation is on this board for other team's garbage.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 24, 2008 -> 10:58 AM) The interesting thing is that the 2007 payroll was 109 million and it went to 120 million in 2008. That increase? 10%. As I have been saying for years, the Sox are a zero sum organization. Whatever comes in, goes out. Its the price we pay for having the 5th highest payroll in baseball last year. I highly doubt they would increase prices 10% if they didn't have most of their season ticketholders held hostage by having all their non refundable playoff money already. But it does indicate payroll should go up further.

I just saw an interview with Ozzie that occurred last night. He basically said what we already know, the White Sox are looking for pitching and speed at the top and bottom of their order.

QUOTE (knightni @ Nov 23, 2008 -> 07:17 AM) This would be... what, the 4th stopgap CF season, then? CF is a tough spot to fill. KW apparently dodged a bullet when Fukudome turned down $50 million, although I think he'll bounce back in 2009 and be closer to the player he was in the first half. I would think Edmonds would be down on the list, but you look at his numbers with the Cubs, while not earth-shattering, they were pretty good. I'm not a fan of his, I suspect a lot of his success was "aided", but he is a better option in CF even at 39 than Griffey, Erstad, Mackowiak, Swisher........I suspect KW is aiming way higher, but if all efforts fail, unless his trade refusal pissed KW off, it wouldn't shock me to see an inquiry.

Does anyone think KW may go after Edmonds to play CF? He tried trading for him last offseason and Edmonds refused, although if you hear Edmonds explaination of it, he had like an hour to decide which wasn't enough time. He was horrid with SD, but if you look at his numbers with the Cubs in 250 AB, he gives you about what you would expect Swisher, best case scenerio to give you in 150 AB even at 39. Perhaps a stop-gap solution to CF.