Dick Allen

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 26, 2008 -> 04:29 PM) He's underperformed much of his career, but he's "fooled" Brian Cashman, Kenny Williams, and whoever was D'Backs GM when they traded for him. The point is, Javy's ceiling is high and his floor is where he is. IMO, Sonnanstine's ceiling was what he did last year, and his floor is somewhere in Triple A. Edit: People getting excited over the possibility of acquiring Andy Sonnanstine are probably the same people who got all excited after Lance Broadway's start against the Royals during '07 garbage time. I wouldn't be excited about Sonnastine, but I'd be less excited about paying Javy $23 million the next 2 seasons. If my choice was Sonnanstine + $11 million a season to play with or Javy, I'd pick Sonnanstine. I really couldn't care less about ceilings and floors with guys who have been around a decade or so. I look for results.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 26, 2008 -> 04:11 PM) No, see that's the thing. Andy isn't better than Javy, at all, and if you adjust for park I'm sure their numbers are a lot closer. Basically, Javy had a bad year. We all saw in 2007 what Javy can do in a good year. We all have seen what Javy's ceiling is. In his first year, Sonnanstine has already surpassed his ceiling IMO. When the league adjusts to him he's going to suck, and his stuff is so poor that unlike Javy he's not going to have to the stuff to keep him out there. Look at that BAA, watch the guy pitch, and tell me he's better than Javy. Javy has been doing his thing in the Majors since 1998, and Javy's struggles are mainly because the opposition just waits on him to throw a lot of pitches and start leaving his offspeed stuff up in the zone. Andy Sonnanstine got away with hanging his offspeed stuff every single time he pitched against us last year, and as soon as our hitters took the right approach against him, he started getting hit and then was pulled. He's not going to get away with that next year IMO. Javy has sucked 4 of the last 5 years. A GM counting on Javy "hitting his ceiling" better have a resume ready.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 11:32 PM) I see that his performance-to-cost ratio is very favorable, but I just don't know how anyone can deal real talent for him. With someone like Javy, yeah he makes a lot more money, but you still have the upside of a #2-like season with the downside of a #3/#4-type season. Sonnanstine just strikes me as the type of guy who is always on the edge of disaster, every single game, every single situation. At least Javy has the ability to take over a game and dominate. I just don't know how any team can watch Andy Sonnanstine pitch and say, "You know what? I'm gonna go ahead and trade one of my best pitching prospects, a guy with twice the ceiling, for a junkballer who can spot his junk. That sounds like a great idea." Paul Byrd is capable of doing the same thing and doesn't cost any top talent, just tha cheddah. I don't even know if Byrd is a Type B free agent. 2008 AS 13-9 4.38 ERA 1.29 WHIP .277 BAA 2 post season wins 400,000k salary JV 12-16 4.67 ERA 1.32 WHIP .263 BAA 0 post season wins 11,500,000 salary. If, as you say, Javy's downside is a #3 or #4 starter, this guy is already better than that and he makes peanuts. Javy has only had 1 year the last 5 with an ERA lower than AS posted in 2008. Could you imagine what Javy's ERA was if he had to face Boston and NY as much as Tampa pitchers do? I don't see how any team can watch Javy pitch and think they are going to get a guy who is going to be anything but average at best when all the results are in, at a price which is a lot more than average. I hope KW can find someone who thinks Javy will put it all together consistently for them.

I read an article on how arbitrators come to their decisions. Say the White Sox offered Uribe $4 million and Juan asked for $5,999,999. The arbitrator decides which figure is closer to the players worth. If he or she came to the conclusion that Uribe was a $5 million a year guy, he would get $5,999,999. If he thought he was a $4,999,999 guy, he would get $4 million. Because of this system, teams almost always have to offer a raise even if the player doesn't earn it. Cabrera will make more money in 2009 if he took arbitration than he will on the open market. While you wouldn't think he would take arbitration, there's always the possibility he thinks conditions will be better next year and take the Sox up on it. That's probably $11 or $12 million you will pay to someone you consider a cancer for a season just to gain late first round draft picks. If he's not signed by someone before the deadline, I think the White Sox will decline arb for him.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 11:24 PM) Have you heard anything specifically about White Sox season ticket renewals and cutting payroll...or just the generic comments about the economy from KW, moving towards a younger and more athletic roster...I think it was the Barry Rozner article about having 75 cents to spend out of a dollar instead of 50 like it used to be. People looking for upgrades have been told it will be difficult because renewels are at 95-97% KW said he was slashing payroll per the Rozner column. Those who live for the chance to criticize the South Siders will no doubt enjoy hearing that the Sox won't be spending as much as they did in 2008, when they were fifth in baseball at $121 million. "First of all, it's a continuation of a plan to get younger that started two years ago,'' Williams said Monday from Arizona. "But secondly, this was going to be needed anyway as a result of the economy. "We can't hide from it. At the end of the day, the bottom line is you can't spend a dollar if you only have 75 cents, and we're talking about millions here. "These are serious issues and we can't live with our heads in the sand.''

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 04:12 PM) Well, I guess Burnett may have had better seasons than Javy, but I'll take Javy's healthy arm over Burnett's injury-ridden self any day of the week....I actually do think Javy would command between $13-15 million per. No way Vazquez would get that coming off the season he had. Especially the finish. The owners new "collusion" will be the economy. The big guys will get their money. The rest is a crapshoot, and it will all be blamed on the economy. Read Barry Rozner's column today, with quotes from KW about trimming payroll. He said he was going to anyway to go younger, but with the economy being what it is......................the White Sox raised ticket prices. I think a lot of free agents are going to get a lot less than they hoped for.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 03:49 PM) 4/52 for Dempster Lowe wants at least 4/60 Sheets will end up paid heavily despite the fact that he's never healthy for a full season, and is more of a 2/3 than an ace like he's talked up as even when he is healthy Burnett is going to pick up a bad contract, at least 4/60 or probably more And all of those guys who haven't signed will cost a first round draft pick to any top-15 team that signs them should those players move on to new organizations. Javy would get 15 or 16M per in this market, so he's definitely a bargain salary-wise (and in years if you don't like the idea of Sheets or Lowe or Burnett at 4 or 5 years) and I highly doubt teams think otherwise. Perhaps they are balking at Kenny's asking price but I doubt Kenny is asking a "bargain" price. Kenny will let the market shake itself out and then deal with the desperate teams once a few guys sign, and he'll only make a deal right now if his high asking price is met. BTW, WTF does Bill James have to do with anything? His projections mean jack s***, no more than the average fan who says "I think Javy will do awesome next year," or "I think Javy will suck next year." In fact your average scout or fan's prediction would probably be a much better bet since they actually watch the player instead of using their calculators to make a dumbass statement. There are indications that Sheets, if offered arbitration, would accept it. Dempster is coming off a huge year. Lowe may want that money, but he won't get it. Burnett will get it but he's better than Javy and still is overpaid. The draft picks don't mean as much as you think, especially with teams picking near the bottom. That's a couple million saved instead of giving to a guy who probably is a longshot anyway, and nowhere near as good as the guy they signed. There is no way Javy gets $15-16 million in today's market. Bill James has been coming out with these books for years. Some guys he gets exactly right, some guys he gets wrong. He works as a consultant or something along those lines for the Red Sox. They seem to admire his work. If he thinks Javy will have a 3.80 ERA next year, maybe the Red Sox will pay up to get the loser. I also think this time next year, Dempster's contract will seem ridiculous. I think he'll get torched in 2009.

The problem with flipping Vazquez is it appears other MLB teams don't find his $11.5 million salary as big of bargain as the Soxtalk consensus. Although maybe Boston would be interested. In Bill James (I believe the Red Sox still employ him) new book for 2009 he has Vazquez with a 3.80 ERA which is lower than he has for any other White Sox starter.

To expect a 19 year old to start in the major leagues is beyond a reach. KW said yesterday they are trimming payroll, (even though they are increasing ticket prices). If he trims it a lot, and the team falls on its face, like it most undoubtedly would with Rock Raines' projected line-up, KW would be back to being the village idiot.

QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Nov 25, 2008 -> 01:48 PM) Dye for Bailey and Nick Masset. I heard this Masset has Jenks like stuff. Just a tick below.

Raising ticket prices and cutting payroll won't fly if they don't win. Barry Rozner says they will be cutting payroll. From the Daily Herald: When the top athlete on the planet loses a big endorsement deal with Buick, as Tiger Woods did Monday, and unless you've had the door to your cave slammed shut the last few months, then you know things are kinda tough out there. So, yes, the White Sox will be trimming payroll this winter. That news, via Sox GM Ken Williams, came Monday, because unlike the very few teams in sports who are immune to recessions, the Sox will need to keep an eye on expenses. Those who live for the chance to criticize the South Siders will no doubt enjoy hearing that the Sox won't be spending as much as they did in 2008, when they were fifth in baseball at $121 million. "First of all, it's a continuation of a plan to get younger that started two years ago,'' Williams said Monday from Arizona. "But secondly, this was going to be needed anyway as a result of the economy. "We can't hide from it. At the end of the day, the bottom line is you can't spend a dollar if you only have 75 cents, and we're talking about millions here. "These are serious issues and we can't live with our heads in the sand.'' Williams has already subtracted $25 million in the form of Orlando Cabrera, Nick Swisher, Juan Uribe and Joe Crede, and you have to think he'd like to get Javier Vazquez and his $11.5 million off the books, though it doesn't help that Vazquez has a limited no-trade blocking deals to N.L. West and A.L. West teams. As for the 2009 payroll, Williams said, "The number will depend on what we do over the next few weeks. Jerry (Reinsdorf) just tells me to break even and try to win the World Series. "I'm charged with making sure we can keep the lights on, and do it in a competitive way.'' It's difficult to argue with Williams' results over the past eight years. "It's pretty evident that I'm trying to continue on with a plan to turn the roster over and infuse the team with young talent,'' Williams said. "In the meantime, we'll continue to monitor where revenues are and keep having dialogue, but I'm more focused on how to put the best team on field that's more athletic and younger. "So my goals, aside from the economy, were going to result in a lower payroll anyway.'' Meanwhile, some sports teams around the country may see a 25 percent drop in ticket sales next year, though we're not suggesting that could happen on the South Side. "How can sports not be affected by it?'' Williams asked. "People work hard for their discretionary dollars and entertainment is often the thing that's cut first. "But we survive in sports for times just like this, when people need a little break from real life for a few hours a day, when they can be passionate about their teams. "We have a responsibility to keep our sport healthy, and I have to do my part to make sure of that.'' It does appear KW has a quarter more to work with, 75 cents vs. the old 50. but isn't it hypocritical to be using the economy as a reason to cut payroll while at the same time raising ticket prices 10%?

QUOTE (YASNY @ Nov 24, 2008 -> 01:00 PM) Yes, I'd rather go with an unproven player like Getz. How else can the Sox minor leaguers get the chance to prove themselves if they never get a shot? Maybe if they were better players they would get a shot? That said, I don't know what the fatuation is on this board for other team's garbage.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 24, 2008 -> 10:58 AM) The interesting thing is that the 2007 payroll was 109 million and it went to 120 million in 2008. That increase? 10%. As I have been saying for years, the Sox are a zero sum organization. Whatever comes in, goes out. Its the price we pay for having the 5th highest payroll in baseball last year. I highly doubt they would increase prices 10% if they didn't have most of their season ticketholders held hostage by having all their non refundable playoff money already. But it does indicate payroll should go up further.

I just saw an interview with Ozzie that occurred last night. He basically said what we already know, the White Sox are looking for pitching and speed at the top and bottom of their order.

QUOTE (knightni @ Nov 23, 2008 -> 07:17 AM) This would be... what, the 4th stopgap CF season, then? CF is a tough spot to fill. KW apparently dodged a bullet when Fukudome turned down $50 million, although I think he'll bounce back in 2009 and be closer to the player he was in the first half. I would think Edmonds would be down on the list, but you look at his numbers with the Cubs, while not earth-shattering, they were pretty good. I'm not a fan of his, I suspect a lot of his success was "aided", but he is a better option in CF even at 39 than Griffey, Erstad, Mackowiak, Swisher........I suspect KW is aiming way higher, but if all efforts fail, unless his trade refusal pissed KW off, it wouldn't shock me to see an inquiry.

Does anyone think KW may go after Edmonds to play CF? He tried trading for him last offseason and Edmonds refused, although if you hear Edmonds explaination of it, he had like an hour to decide which wasn't enough time. He was horrid with SD, but if you look at his numbers with the Cubs in 250 AB, he gives you about what you would expect Swisher, best case scenerio to give you in 150 AB even at 39. Perhaps a stop-gap solution to CF.

According to every article written about the Mets and their pursuit of a closer, Jenks is about 6th on their list. Supposedly Jenks' price is very high, they would rather get one of the big FA if they can get them for less than 4 years, or go after Wood or Hoffman. Then Putz. Jenks is after them. So KW is asking for the moon, and maybe Levine is just talking about the asking price.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 08:20 AM) You do realize that Swisher had 497 at bats last year and what you’re asking is completely irrational from a layman’s perspective, right? How about this there are people whose job it is to chart every ball that is hit in one season of Major League baseball. It was those people who upon analyze their results decided Swisher was unlucky. It was all based on his .251 BABIP. Supposedly, that makes him very unlucky. Well good news, the guy that had a better year than him anyway, the guy who people wanted gone so Swisher can flail away at 58 foot sliders in the dirt and then watch the next pitch go by right down the middle, Paul Konerko, had a .247 BABIP. He was even more unlucky.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Nov 22, 2008 -> 06:04 AM) Even if the sox wind up trading Dye, Jenks, Vazquez, hell, even Konerko, they aren't rebuilding in the sense of writing off 2009. They are trying to compete in 2009 and for the long term by getting younger, better players with upside. This is like the Twins plus. The Twins build around Morneau and Mauer, with strong pitching, defense and contact hitters. The sox can build around Quentin and Alexei, and now Viciedo, and Beckham, with strong pitching, solid defense and guys who can hit for avg and power, and still run the bases some. If the sox add a Fernando Martinez to the mix, that's a very strong core to have in place for years. If the sox add a Pelfrey and Edwin Jackson, to Buerhle, Danks, Floyd, and Poreda, with a variety of bullpen arms, that's a strong starting pitching staff as well that can compete for a few years. Also remember that if the trade all those guys for young players, they will be adding payroll somewhere. They raised ticket prices. They have always said what goes in comes out. They wouldn't trim $30 million to $40 off their payroll, raise ticket prices and call it a day after a Central Division title. No way. There is something very big coming.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Nov 22, 2008 -> 06:57 AM) I read this article yesterday, it doesn't say anywhere that there was a better offer somewhere else. Chicago’s willingness to put Viciedo in an open competition pushed them past three other teams, Torres said, one of which was offering more than $11 million. Viciedo’s familiarity with Ramirez, as well as the presence of Cuban Jose Contreras, helped sway him toward the White Sox. Of course he doesn't say how much more, so it could be $1, it could be even more significant.

QUOTE (sircaffey @ Nov 18, 2008 -> 09:05 PM) He had so many RBI's because he was a man child during those opportunities... RISP Morneau: .348/.443/.602 Pedroia: .307/.365/.466 RISP w/2 outs Morneau: .329/.461/.573 Pedroia: .231/.355/.359 Runners On Morneau: .330/.418/.574 Pedroia: .310/.367/.453 Hey Felix, How do you explain these numbers? The most overrated player in baseball. Period. hits like this with runners on?

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 04:43 PM) Martinez is similar to what Felix Pie was a few years back though so I would not be happy with just those two, but those could be the cornerstones. Martinez has a ton of talent but a lot of his value is still based upon projections as he's yet to even come close to backing that up in the minors (albeit he's consistently been young for his level and has still put up solid stats). So ultimately Martinez is still a very "risky" prospect in the sense that I'd be hard pressed to guarantee success. It seems most Mets phenom OFs don't become the stars they were supposed to be.

Steve Stone in his blog says he expects a couple of trades to come up rather quickly and a couple of acquisitions to come up really quickly. He is a grammatical mess, so I don't know if trades and acquisitions are one and the same or if its a couple of trades and a couple of signings.

QUOTE (knightni @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 04:19 PM) If Dye leaves, is Griffey coming back? It wouldn't be shocking

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 21, 2008 -> 04:04 PM) I will shocked if one person changes their opinion of Joe Crede (good or bad) based on the contract he gets this off season. The only way that changes if he comes out and rips the White Sox for some reason this winter or spring. There have been plenty of posts mentioning Boras as Joe's agent and there has been some rips, so he is right to a certain degree about how Boras' clients are viewed by the majority here. He is incorrect about how most view players who left for bigger money. I think most of us would take the extra millions. I laugh at all those who have ripped ARod for signing with Texas saying he wanted money over winning. They offered him $100 million more than anyone else. If he didn't take it, he'd have been a moron. If you looked at opinions about Crede in 2005-6 and compare them to now, they are pretty different.