Dick Allen

Obviously they think the "solution" is more guns. When that doesn't work, they will say they just need more.

QUOTE (Tony @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:18 AM) Which is why he’s still on the open market. Not really. He has an agent that is asking for a lot of money, and much like when Jose Abreu was available, most of the big boys are out.

Trump says arming teachers solves the problem instantly. This dope was elected President. We all should be embarrassed. I loved seeing his "I hear you" notes his staff wrote him to remember telling the kids yesterday. Kind of odd the best memory in the world needed notes.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:47 PM) The point I was trying to make is that Beltre averaged 5.6 WAR in his age 33 to 37 seasons. There are examples of elite players remaining productive as they age. The problem is there are so few players the quality of Donaldson that’s it is hard to say with certainty if they generally follow a normal aging curve or a more significant one. Also, are you suggesting he may have used PEDs in his past? Not debating what you’re saying, just have never heard that. I know of the asshole rumors though and am less concerned about those if like you said he remains productive. I think it’s possble. I don’t want to call everyone out if they are successful, but his case from throw in to all star to not aging up until now doesn’t happen much, and times it did weren’t all within the rules.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:27 PM) Adrian Beltre put up 3.1 WAR over 94 games last year. Prior to that, he averaged 5.8 WAR over his age 33 to 37 seasons. While not perfect, that’s as close of a comp as you’re going to get for Donaldson. And I’m not sure people realize that Donaldson has been the second best player in baseball from a WAR perspective behind only Mike Trout and it’s not even that close. Dude has been elite and remained elite when on the field last year. I personally believe where his defense is today he’s probably closer to 6 WAR, but that’s awesome and allows him to age and remain really f***ing good. Now, if there are serious long-term injury concerns like fathom alluded to then maybe you got to pass. But without those risk indicators, I’m not going to pass on him simply because he’s in his 30’s. I was looking only at qualifying guys, so Beltran wasn’t listed, but you don,t want to pay that much for 94 games. I have my suspicions about Donaldson.. we will see what happens. It will take the best bid. An article in the Athletic says he owes the industry that. And most likely all the Machado losers will be in on him. One thing to think about is he is known to be a bit of an asshole. There was that playoff game where they caught Gibbons calling him one in the dugout. But if he can put up what you think he can put up, then that shouldn’t be much of a deal.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:00 PM) How many guys are peak 7 to 8 WAR players? I mean, there were only two hitters last year above seven. He’s most definitely going to decline over the life of the contract, but he’s starting from such a high point that he should hopefully remain valuable over the period of time I’m suggesting. Sure, there’s always a chance he completely falls off, but I don’t that’s probable and I don’t think we should be afraid of taking calculated risks. Let me ask you guys this, what does his potential again curve like exactly? We will see. It just doesn’t happen much. Maybe he is an exception. Maybe he is enhanced, but things happen when you get older. Injuries can bother him. His reflexes, eyesight, can weaken...Look at Paulie. He seemed like his career was headed to the dumpster when he figured something ing out as a 34 year old. Put up another big year as a 35 year old. Was hitting close to .400 almost 2months into his age 36season, had a wrist procedure deemed minor, and was pretty much done after that.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:52 PM) David Ortiz, Ped whispers aside...the only other. Maybe Scott Rolen is the best comp. Age 34 4.9 Age 35 3.9 Age 36 1.5 Age 37 0.3 Retired We would be buying Donaldson at ages 33-37. 2019 is probably one year early. So $150 million for his 2020 and 2021 seasons when we have to be good. Probably having $50-60 million of bad money at the back end when that roster suddenly becomes increasingly expensive. Not to mention the lack of certainty about Abreu’s mid 30’s level of productivity. Nelson Cruz, the old guy now doing something served a 50 games suspension. It is a young mans game anymore. Not just the lack of steroids. Everyone throwing 95 plus takes its toll on the older guys. There are always exceptions, but the non cheating ones are going the way of the Edsel.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:03 PM) I’d probably be willing to go 5/$150M. Below is a somewhat conservative aging curve for Donaldson: fWAR 2019: 5.0 2020: 4.5 2021: 4.0 2022: 3.5 2023: 3.0 Total: 20.0 Assuming $8M/WAR and that’s a pretty fair deal. And I honestly think there’s a solid chance he provides more than 20 WAR during that time period. Regardless, he’d remain a useful player over the life of the contract and to me that’s very important. Moose suddenly becomes a below average player with even a little bit of regression. He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR.

What kind of f***ed up country are we living in if our teachers need to be packing? That is not the answer, Trump. We are losing teachers by the dozens now in high rent areas. In San Francisco I saw average rent is 78% of a teachers salary. Don’t scare more away thinking they need a gun to do their job.and guns in classrooms every day isn’t going to end well.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:46 PM) Ok, now apply aging curves for two to four seasons in the future. Aging curves aren't always accurate. I bet you wouldn't have had Jose Abreu putting up the numbers he put up and a 4.1 WAR last year. He was a below average player. Now people want him to sign an extension.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:43 PM) If you increase the cutoff to 300 PA Moustakas is #91 That is still top 3 on average per team. The guy isn't average. It's a good narrative for people who don't want to sign him, but it simply isn't true. And anyone the White Sox eventually sign, will more than likely have some sort of issue during the term of their contract, just like some of the prospects we are drooling about now. A couple or a few will turn out to be throw ins for trades in coming years, never realizing what we see as their potential now. I have no idea what Boras is asking. I would imagine it isn't discounted too much. So I don't think the White Sox will sign him. All I am saying is there should be a price where they say, it makes sense.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:37 PM) Ok, yeah, you filtered by BA Title Qualification. That's fine, but it misses a crapton of rookies and players that spent decent time on the DL, both good and bad. I think it's more accurate to go with a lower threshold. I don't think 50 PAs is a good sample size.

More coffee boys. Had nothing to do with the campaign.

Do you know that if 2.0 is average, there are less than 7 players on average that are at least average on each team. How's that for averages? And if you round down like eminor, there are less than 5 above average players on average for each roster.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:56 PM) Again -- it isn't 2015 anymore. Those players are older, and they'll be older still when we are competitive. Last year, in a bounceback season, he was a 114 wRC+ hitter, good for 107th in the major if you filter by minimum 50 plate appearances, or apparently 60-something if you filter by whatever minimum Dick Allen filtered by, which I guess is probably "Qualified for Batting Title." Would you scramble to add the roughly 100th best hitter to the middle of your order? Ok, now, take that answer and remember that next year doesn't matter in terms of overall record. Two years from now will matter possibly, if things go REALLY well next year. The year after that must matter. So we're taking that 100th best hitter form this year, pushing him 2-3 years into his 30's, and NOW placing him in the middle of oour order. Where will he rank then if ages normally? Today, he is a roughly average player overall. Those guys are ALWAYS available to sign. Every offseason you can sign average players at market rates.Why not, instead, sign a 2-win 115 wRC+ guy when we actually need him, instead of now and hoping he defies the aging curve AND that we also correctly guessed that he'll play the position we'll need in two or three years? And that his aged hasn't had him move off of that position? Heres' where I got it. 107 is Yolmer Sanchez. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=17,d

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:39 PM) You keep saying that, but I don't know why. He put up 2.2 fWAR last year and both Steamer and ZiPS project him at 2.5. A league average player is "roughly 2 WAR." Ok, maybe he's slightly above? He's within rounding error of a league average player. That's where I am getting it. Steamer actually has him at 2.6 not that it matters much, but he played in 27 games in 2016 and put up a 0.7. So if he played a full season, he was well on his way to well above average then. Was well above average in 2015, and after missing a lot time he came back last year and was above average. In fact, only 9 MLB 3B had a higher wRC+ than he did. I believe defensively he can bounce back. He wasn't horrible, but wasn't great. Many think another year away from his surgery will improve his defense, which will only make his WAR rise.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:21 PM) I'm not taking Noah for a top 8 protected pick. Not worth it. If the pick is unprotected, I'll take it. The Knicks make more money than the Bulls, and they aren't winning anything the next 2 seasons. I really doubt they do anything but buy him out or release him or trade him for someone else's just as expensive garbage. Giving up a pick to get rid of him makes no sense.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:24 PM) When you have a cheap core in place, you’re goal should be to maximize production and not value. And it’s hard to optimize production when you’re locking in league average players in your biggest potential area for improvement. 8.8,7.6,5.0 Donaldson's fWAR the last 3 years. Looks like he is trending down. Still great, but who knows. You want to sign him next year. If he signed for 5 years, there is a really good chance league average would be his level at some point. If you sign Manny Machado for 10 years, there is a pretty good chance he will be league average at some point.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:20 PM) A discounted Moustakas doesn’t prevent from adding Machado, it just locks you into a league average player who will need to move to 1B (where the value suddenly disappears) or will force you to move Anderson to CF. Plus you lose an important draft pick. I’ve said numerous times I would have added JD Martinez if I could get him a discount. I just think Moustakas is a less impactful player and we don’t need buy league average players this early into a rebuild. He isn't league average.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 01:05 PM) It’s not so much that we want them to go with plan B but that we are holding realistic expectations on how they will proceed given past ownership decisions. I have no doubt they are going to be bringing guys in and paying a hefty sum to do so, I’m just highly skeptical they will extend themselves to the top 3-5 guys in any FA class (esp when those guys demand upwards of $150M). I just feel the amount of money they will spend will not be unlimited. If you get the price you like on Moustakas take it. A good time to buy a winter jacket is the spring or summer. You don't get the newest style, but you may get a great deal on a coat that gets the job done. If a discounted Moustakas means you don't have money for Machado or Donaldson next year, you weren't a player anyway. Some posters are talking out of both sides of their mouths. No money committed, can sign all these guys, but wait, don't sign this guy, then you have settled. No. The Sox would have the fallback in place, and supposedly a lot of funds for other needs including Machado and Donaldson. That said, I don't think it is going to happen. Other than these random reports this winter, I have seen no actual linkage between Moustakas and the White Sox. You would have to figure something would come out. Obviously different times with different dollar amounts, but the White Sox prior to the 1981 season did sign Jim Essian as a free agent to be their catcher. Then Carlton Fisk became available, and they signed him. If the Sox signed a better 3B, Moustakas could move to another team or to DH or play 1B on occassion.

QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:45 PM) But it's not just the guys that hit FA 5 years from now. It's also extending guys like Abreu and Avi. If they are planning to trade those guys before next July, then that's just two more spots to fill in the everyday lineup starting in 2020. I really don't see them trading Abreu. I think he is a White Sox through this next contention window. Seems Avi is still a question mark as to whether he fits in the long term plan. Plus, you have to supplement every year. And that costs a lot of money.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 12:40 PM) I really don’t think that’s how baseball works right now. The goal should be to get our core in place and load up for a four or five year window. That is realistically from 2019 to 2024. You don’t make decisions in your window of opportunity because you’re worried how you’ll be able to extend some of your stars six years from. Look at the Cubs, they’ve traded every significant minor league asset and spent like crazy to win now. As a result, they’ll most definitely have to rebuild once Bryant & others hit free agency. I think that’s how the modern MLB works. It’s going to be rare for teams on super long runs without reloading. The Cubs can print money. Others can't. Their run probably lasts a bit longer. What will be interesting is how much White Sox revenues increase if they go on a run. What will they be able to afford etc. Ricketts the other day mentioned the Cubs may remain with the White Sox, Bulls and Blackhawks when their TV deal expires in 2019, which is good for the Sox. They would get a piece of the revenue the station makes off of the Cubs.

Trump wants Sessions to investigate why Obama didn't investigate Russian meddling. LOL. Trump playbook to a tee. It's always someone else who needs to be investigated for something he did.

QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 11:31 AM) You know people talk about relegation and how that works for EPL. We are so tied to this "worst team should get best pick" system, and I think it works for NFL/MLB (I do! Not as bad as NBA)/NHL, but basketball has zero depth element to its drafts. You don't get a great draft by finding 3-4 top talents like football, you get a great draft when you either get a top 5 pick or back into a talent. So basically what I'm saying is, maybe we reward a team for being the best of the rest. Have an actual sudden death tournament for non-playoff teams where the winner gets top pick, the runner up gets 2nd, and the worst team is guaranteed at least 3rd. It would prevent just running a bare bones team, you could even seed where the best of the worst get a more favorable seeding, so incentive to not suck. And while giving the team that wins the more valuable pick, you could allocate more cap space for up to 3 years for the worst 5 teams to try and get them to spend out of it. Another thing especially in other sports beside the NBA, is draft like a fantasy draft. You have the last pick in round 1, you get the first pick in round 2.

QUOTE (bmags @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 10:52 AM) I agree, and it sucks for the players too. Robin Lopez doesn't get to play basketball forever. He is clearly the best center on the team, plays his ass off every night, and this is the pinnacle of everything he's worked for (playing in NBA). But the team, which has no body-aging constraints, basically just wants to sim the rest of the season, so he sits. It just sucks. It's just hard to think of a solution. The only one I can think of is put all non playoff teams in a draft lottery with equal chances and whatever order the ping pong balls come , that is where you select. No top 3 protection or anything like that. That way, it doesn't matter if you win 15 games or miss the playoffs by 1. There still is incentive to make the playoffs. Extra revenue and you still could get a mediocre mid first round pick. I think bad teams will be better just because. It may not get them titles, but the NBA is probably the league with the fewest franchises being able to show off a trophy than any. Even with the top pick, there is luck involved. You could be picking when Lebron is available or get Pervis Ellison.