Dick Allen

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 06:09 PM) Again, that's not at all related to the post we're talking about, which is based on ignoring certain portions of a sample. I didn't ignore any part of any sample. So Jose Abreu's claim that it was ironic makes no sense. Regarding what you're talking about: I think you're right that 50 is far too low. I didn't put a lot of thought into it. The correct number is probably more like 100-150 PA. It's important to include mid and late season callups/breakouts. That probably bring Moustakas just into the top 100. Generally, I think my point still stands: I don't think he is (or has recently been) as good a hitter as people think, because while hits hits homeruns, he does everything else poorly. So his overall production last year really wasn't high enough to (IMO) justify the risk against his aging curve to sign him. It you did ignore playing time. By definition you used part time players to make is performance less impressive. The White Sox aren’t going to sign the guy unless it’s for dirt cheap anyway. But he is a pretty good player.

My sister teaches special ed. Her first day on the job, she was told depending on the day a few of her students could stick a pencil in their eye or try to stick one in hers. She has thus far avoided any trouble in her years at the school. Her packing heat would make me a nervous brother..

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 03:47 PM) That's not what I did with Moustakas, though. It's fair to say that 50 PA is too low a cutoff for that list, but it's not even related to the idea of arbitrarily lopping off parts of a given sample based on time. That would be like if I chose Moustakas' 50 worst plate appearances to judge him. That's not at all the same thing as setting 50 PA as a cut off to ordinarily rank hitters in 2017 by wRC+. But they are because you were using players that didn’t play a whole season, and platoon guys whose numbers would certainly go down if they played every day. Yet you claimed they were better than Moustakas. Trance Thompson put up a 146wRC+ in 2015. Was he really better than big Papi, Rizzo, Bryant , McCutchen, Machado..... If you use those guys, it could only make Moustakas look worse because you were just looking for guys that did better. Far more did worse.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 02:44 PM) I'm not following you here -- the post you just quoted is implying absolutely nothing related to the significance of a sample size. The point being 50 PA is not something you would use to conclude like you did with Moustakas. 10 or 12 bad or unlucky PA would drop those numbers quickly.

What is the over/under for when a kid gets pissed off at his 115 lb. teacher, overpowers her and grabs her gun?

QUOTE (Iwritecode @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 12:56 PM) What's funny is we already have "more" guns. America has about 42% of the civilian-owned guns in the world. We have almost as many guns in this country alone as the rest of the world combined. 4.4% of the world population. The more guns theory has been debunked and the politicians with their tongues up the NRA's ass just ignore it. I hope it does get these young men and women to the voting booth.

Trump threatening to pull ICE out of California and says if he does, you will see crime like you never have before. President or spoiled brat 3 year old?

Gun free zones are like going for ice cream to a killer. That's what Trump thinks. Why is no one questioning Trump about rolling back the Obama mandate about making it harder for mentally ill people to buy guns?

QUOTE (Brian @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 12:15 PM) Did Trump praise the NRA in front of all those kids or just on Twitter? He's nothing more than a keyboard warrior. Did you see the photo with the close up of his notes yesterday?

I saw an interview with Hub yesterday discussing the Bears. He said they won't be able to spend all of their cap money. Also said, if they have to, they should tag Fuller. Said he probably isn't worth the salary, but they can't create more holes, and it isn't going to be a payroll problem. Didn't understand why teams kept trying to pick on Fuller last year, he played really well. Also said Fangio was Fuller's biggest detractor before the season, and a huge backer afterward.

QUOTE (knightni @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 11:02 AM) I don't believe that Eloy will be anything other than a LF. His arm is not strong enough for RF. Everything you read on line during the season last year, Eloy seemed like the next face of MLB. Then the winter happens and all of a sudden you start seeing articles about how he can't do this or can't do that. At least he's still ranked really high, whatever that is worth.

QUOTE (Tony @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 10:25 AM) If he was a better player, his market wouldn’t be as limited. Him playing 3B doesn’t help, but if he played LF I think he’s still sitting at home, based on what he’s asking for. He could play 1B, he could DH if a team was really enamored with him.. You’re arguing a small semantical point because it’s your shtick, but whatever. Why did it take forever for Darvish to sign? Why isn't Arrieta signed? Do they need to be better players? Same agent. Similar problem, only everyone can use pitchers. This is what Boras does, and it can backfire. Usually he pulls something out of his ass though.

Will future teachers have to take gun courses to get certified?

QUOTE (Tony @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:52 AM) It’s one in the same. He’s asking for a lot of money which doesn’t match his actual production. I don't necessarily agree. He has a limited market. And most of the big spenders have 3rd base occupied or are trying to re set their luxury tax. The guy just picked a bad year to be a free agent, and he picked the guy who tries to squeeze every last ounce out of a team. Sometimes that will come back to haunt some guys.

Obviously they think the "solution" is more guns. When that doesn't work, they will say they just need more.

QUOTE (Tony @ Feb 22, 2018 -> 09:18 AM) Which is why he’s still on the open market. Not really. He has an agent that is asking for a lot of money, and much like when Jose Abreu was available, most of the big boys are out.

Trump says arming teachers solves the problem instantly. This dope was elected President. We all should be embarrassed. I loved seeing his "I hear you" notes his staff wrote him to remember telling the kids yesterday. Kind of odd the best memory in the world needed notes.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:47 PM) The point I was trying to make is that Beltre averaged 5.6 WAR in his age 33 to 37 seasons. There are examples of elite players remaining productive as they age. The problem is there are so few players the quality of Donaldson that’s it is hard to say with certainty if they generally follow a normal aging curve or a more significant one. Also, are you suggesting he may have used PEDs in his past? Not debating what you’re saying, just have never heard that. I know of the asshole rumors though and am less concerned about those if like you said he remains productive. I think it’s possble. I don’t want to call everyone out if they are successful, but his case from throw in to all star to not aging up until now doesn’t happen much, and times it did weren’t all within the rules.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:27 PM) Adrian Beltre put up 3.1 WAR over 94 games last year. Prior to that, he averaged 5.8 WAR over his age 33 to 37 seasons. While not perfect, that’s as close of a comp as you’re going to get for Donaldson. And I’m not sure people realize that Donaldson has been the second best player in baseball from a WAR perspective behind only Mike Trout and it’s not even that close. Dude has been elite and remained elite when on the field last year. I personally believe where his defense is today he’s probably closer to 6 WAR, but that’s awesome and allows him to age and remain really f***ing good. Now, if there are serious long-term injury concerns like fathom alluded to then maybe you got to pass. But without those risk indicators, I’m not going to pass on him simply because he’s in his 30’s. I was looking only at qualifying guys, so Beltran wasn’t listed, but you don,t want to pay that much for 94 games. I have my suspicions about Donaldson.. we will see what happens. It will take the best bid. An article in the Athletic says he owes the industry that. And most likely all the Machado losers will be in on him. One thing to think about is he is known to be a bit of an asshole. There was that playoff game where they caught Gibbons calling him one in the dugout. But if he can put up what you think he can put up, then that shouldn’t be much of a deal.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 07:00 PM) How many guys are peak 7 to 8 WAR players? I mean, there were only two hitters last year above seven. He’s most definitely going to decline over the life of the contract, but he’s starting from such a high point that he should hopefully remain valuable over the period of time I’m suggesting. Sure, there’s always a chance he completely falls off, but I don’t that’s probable and I don’t think we should be afraid of taking calculated risks. Let me ask you guys this, what does his potential again curve like exactly? We will see. It just doesn’t happen much. Maybe he is an exception. Maybe he is enhanced, but things happen when you get older. Injuries can bother him. His reflexes, eyesight, can weaken...Look at Paulie. He seemed like his career was headed to the dumpster when he figured something ing out as a 34 year old. Put up another big year as a 35 year old. Was hitting close to .400 almost 2months into his age 36season, had a wrist procedure deemed minor, and was pretty much done after that.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:52 PM) David Ortiz, Ped whispers aside...the only other. Maybe Scott Rolen is the best comp. Age 34 4.9 Age 35 3.9 Age 36 1.5 Age 37 0.3 Retired We would be buying Donaldson at ages 33-37. 2019 is probably one year early. So $150 million for his 2020 and 2021 seasons when we have to be good. Probably having $50-60 million of bad money at the back end when that roster suddenly becomes increasingly expensive. Not to mention the lack of certainty about Abreu’s mid 30’s level of productivity. Nelson Cruz, the old guy now doing something served a 50 games suspension. It is a young mans game anymore. Not just the lack of steroids. Everyone throwing 95 plus takes its toll on the older guys. There are always exceptions, but the non cheating ones are going the way of the Edsel.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 06:03 PM) I’d probably be willing to go 5/$150M. Below is a somewhat conservative aging curve for Donaldson: fWAR 2019: 5.0 2020: 4.5 2021: 4.0 2022: 3.5 2023: 3.0 Total: 20.0 Assuming $8M/WAR and that’s a pretty fair deal. And I honestly think there’s a solid chance he provides more than 20 WAR during that time period. Regardless, he’d remain a useful player over the life of the contract and to me that’s very important. Moose suddenly becomes a below average player with even a little bit of regression. He would be beating the odds. The only hitter 33 or older who put up more than a 3.8 WAR was Votto. The 3.8 WAR was 36year old Nelson Cruz. No hitter 37 or older put up a replacement level WAR.

What kind of f***ed up country are we living in if our teachers need to be packing? That is not the answer, Trump. We are losing teachers by the dozens now in high rent areas. In San Francisco I saw average rent is 78% of a teachers salary. Don’t scare more away thinking they need a gun to do their job.and guns in classrooms every day isn’t going to end well.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:46 PM) Ok, now apply aging curves for two to four seasons in the future. Aging curves aren't always accurate. I bet you wouldn't have had Jose Abreu putting up the numbers he put up and a 4.1 WAR last year. He was a below average player. Now people want him to sign an extension.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Feb 21, 2018 -> 02:43 PM) If you increase the cutoff to 300 PA Moustakas is #91 That is still top 3 on average per team. The guy isn't average. It's a good narrative for people who don't want to sign him, but it simply isn't true. And anyone the White Sox eventually sign, will more than likely have some sort of issue during the term of their contract, just like some of the prospects we are drooling about now. A couple or a few will turn out to be throw ins for trades in coming years, never realizing what we see as their potential now. I have no idea what Boras is asking. I would imagine it isn't discounted too much. So I don't think the White Sox will sign him. All I am saying is there should be a price where they say, it makes sense.