harfman77

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 20, 2017 -> 11:28 AM) With it being the last shot to spend before the new rules, I can see a real bidding war erupting. This is exactly why I think this will be a huge number. Moncada received $31.5M and Robert is allegedly every bit the prospect that Moncada was. With the last shot at acquiring this level of talent for many clubs and the likelihood that you are going to be able to acquire solid talent for $300K and below due to the new hard caps, I think this will be a bidding war and that it is going to get expensive quickly. This would be the equivalent of the #1 prospect in baseball being a free agent, and the team that wins this is going to have to reach deep into their pockets.

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Apr 20, 2017 -> 11:04 AM) Ok, so $h!t has officially gotten real? What do put our chances at him, 25%? Yeah, Houston is probably the definitive favorite right now as he worked out for them and then "postponed" the rest of his work outs. I think the Sox chance at Robert isn't great at this point as I anticipate that the price for him is going to well exceed what they are comfortable to dolling out. I can see him getting close to $35M which would end up costing the team $70M.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Apr 7, 2017 -> 03:34 PM) I really doubt that Otani comes over after the season. He could but the new CBA severely limits the amount of $$ he can make. He'd get a contract around $150-$200 million if he were a true free agent and he'd get it if he waited until he were 25. Let's pretend that Otani decides to come over after the season. The following teams can't sign him: Houston, Oakland, Atlanta, St. Louis, Cubs, Dodgers, San Francisco, Washington, San Diego, Cincinnati, and Kansas City. Small market teams could pay him $10 million and would control his rights for 6 years. Large market teams could pay him $8.3 million and control his rights for 6 years. Yankees have been speculative fit. They could give him $8.3 million. That's it. People have wondered whether a team could sign him and then rip up the arb years and extend him for huge $$. I guess they could but it'd be a deliberate skirting of the current international rules put in place. This situation should be fascinating. There are ways to be creative. A team can give Otani $8M upfront on a signing bonus, and then have a handshake deal in place for a long term contract after the season. The Sox just set a precedent with this by giving Anderson an extension before he had even reached one full year of service time. So essentially he would make $8M next season (about twice what he would in Japan) and then have an extension in place that would likely pay him at least $15M over the next six years. That gives the team 7 years of control and allows Otani to be a FA again in his age 29 season where he could pull in another large contract.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Apr 6, 2017 -> 10:41 AM) On pure potential, I would agree that Kopech's ceiling is as high as any pitching prospect in the game If healthy, and with further development and polish he could reasonably be a starting pitcher that brings mid to upper 90's heat, with a plus slider and developing changeup His floor is still a high leverage reliever, who can come out of the pen and blow you away with 100+ mph heat and slider combo Yeah, I think a lot of people see him as a Noah Syndergaard clone, and if falls short of that he can be a top tier closer.

QUOTE (flavum @ Apr 6, 2017 -> 10:32 AM) Yeah, I don't doubt Law's opinions are genuine, but I do think he tries to be provocative, which is fine. I'm kinda happy somebody is saying "slow your roll" on Robert. Yes, this pretty much Klaws schtick. His opinions tend to run counter to industry norms, but thats what makes his perspective intriguing and provides value to ESPN. He is right (and wrong) at about the same clip as every other prospect service.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Apr 4, 2017 -> 12:48 PM) When is our private workout with him? All I have seen reported is that the Astros and Sox both have private workouts scheduled this week. I don't expect that we will hear much about these private workouts until he is signed.

Trade deadline tracker: Likely pitchers available - Jose Quintana - 2/$15.85M - 2/$22 team options Chris Archer - 3/$19M - 2/$20 team options Jake Odorizzi - Pre-Arb (eligible 18) Junior Guerra - Pre-arb - Currently Injured Zach Greinke - 5/$172.5M Clay Buchholz - 1/$13.5M Ervin Santana - 2/$27M - 1/$14M team option (vesting) Sonny Gray - Pre-Arb (eligible 18) - Currently Injured Derek Holland - 1/$6M Justin Verlander - 3/$84M - 1/$22M vesting option Likely teams looking for pitching: Rangers Yankees Mariners Astros Orioles Cardinals Pirates Giants Dodgers Cubs Others that may be in the market: Braves Blue Jays I thought it would be nice to keep a running tab on this until the deadline as the injuries and pennant races take shape. It would nice for the Sox if the Rays stayed in contention so that their two pitchers stayed off the market. Archer is the only one close to Q on the level of contract value and is probably worth a bit more due to his extra year of control at a submarket rate.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Apr 4, 2017 -> 09:29 AM) My point is that Perez does not really fit into our timeline for a rebuild. Sox want to target much closer to the mlb players like: Giolito, Lopez, Moncada, Kopech, Dunning (who I think will move quickly through the minors), Burdi, etc. Basabe is the furthest away from the majors that we have acquired and he will likely start the season in high A ball. Figure a player needs at least a full season at each minor league stop prior to advancing, unless they are an anomaly He would fit right along with Basabe, Collins (if he stays at C), and possibly Robert and this years #1 pick. Kelly would plug into the first wave of prospects. You don't want to put yourself in a situation like the Royals where you have a ton of guys hitting FA at the same time, it would be better for the long term health of the organization to stagger prospects out so that you have a constant source of talent to feed the ML team. Granted, I am probably higher on Perez than most. I loved him in the draft last year and think he is the kind of player that if you don't get now, he is going to be in that category of untouchables a year from now. He is still really young, was drafted at 17 a year ago and will be 18 all of this season and likely playing in the MWL. But for all the fascination that has been thrown around Maitan, this guy is light years closer the majors and while there is still risk it is nowhere near the level of acquiring someone like Maitan.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Apr 3, 2017 -> 03:59 AM) Delvin Perez is five years away from bring MLB ready. I don't see the Cardinals as good fit in a trade Perhaps, or maybe he is three years away. I think he could be the prospect equal to what Gleybar Torres is next year at this time.

Pitcher - Luis Martinez Hitter - Michael Hickman

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Mar 31, 2017 -> 01:42 PM) I find it interesting that the idea of making Burdi a starter surfaced. Usually we see posts of wanting our young pitchers to all be relievers. Based on the fact Burdick's success has been in relief I would ask what brought this up? That was part of the hype around Burdi when he was drafted. "U of L coach Dan McDonnell said Wednesday that he could envision a major league team trying to convert Burdi to a starter because he has an array of pitches." http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sport...afted/85672124/ "One thing that might differentiate the younger Burdi – and make him far more attractive to the Twins – is that some believe he has a chance to start games at the next level. " http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-ne...ack-burdi-r4760 "In addition to an upper-90s fastball, he delivers what Baseball America calls a plus change and a slider that has shown promise. BA rated him 21st among draft-eligible prospects, based in part on the idea that he could potentially be developed as a starter." https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/06/whit...zack-burdi.html And Hostetler mentioned the possibility of starting him this year when he was drafted: http://m.braves.mlb.com/cws/video/topic/96...-fared-on-day-1 So it didn't materialize out of thin air. Its the fact that he has three MLB quality pitches that makes it an intriguing option. A lot of times guys get moved to the bullpen because they cannot develop that third pitch, since he already has one, it makes the opposite transition an opportunity. I wouldn't mind seeing the Sox use him as a tandem starter this year to build up some innings and leave open the possibility of him being a better weapon out of the bullpen in the future in the way that Miller and Chapman were used in the World Series last season. I think with the depth in starting pitching makes Burdi to the bullpen a lot easier decision.

QUOTE (beautox @ Mar 30, 2017 -> 08:39 PM) I want to believe. If the sox are so lucky to have that happen and not crap out on developement like the cubs... DH - S - Bell C - L - Collins 1B - L - Beer 2B - S - Moncada SS - R - Anderson 3B - R - Machado - might as well live the in this dream LF - R - Robert CF - L - Meadows RF - S - Basabe bench UT - R - Saladino UT - L - Delmonico OF - S - May C - ? Im going to stick with the Q to the Cards theme of the week. Kelly, Sierra, Perez C - Kelly 1B - Collins 2B - Moncada SS - Perez 3B - Anderson LF - Basabe CF - Sierra RF - Robert DH - Abreu SP - Rodon SP - Lopez SP - Kopech SP - Giolito SP - Fulmer Thats an elite defensive squad with some real offensive upside.

QUOTE (bmags @ Mar 30, 2017 -> 01:48 PM) Default Soxtalk plan b is always PANIC Plan A is PANIC QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 30, 2017 -> 01:52 PM) I thought it was murderous rage? This is the correct Plan B.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Mar 30, 2017 -> 10:25 AM) Meh I'm not thrilled with what the Cardinals farm system could offer I am a big fan of what the Cards have. They are probably my number two target behind the Braves if Torres, Bellinger, Meadows, and Marte are off the table. I think the Astros and Yankees systems are very overrated because of what they have at the top. I think the Braves and Cards can provide much more quality of quantity than any other teams discussed, the Pirates are probably a peg behind. The Cubs could be a great match with Happ, Candeleiro, and Jiminez, especially once Brett Anderson inevitably hits the DL, but odds are thats never going to happen. Start of with Kelly, the #1 C prospect in baseball and as close to ML ready as they come, so with a lower chance of failure. Wacha can be a buy low candidate that the Sox can work on correcting and turn for more prospects in the next 18 months. I love Sierra as a piece and think he can be spark plug at the top of the lineup with good OBP, gap power, and elite CF defense. Delvin Perez was a lock as a top 10 pick last season before a pre-draft drug test failure caused his stock to fall, but there were rumors that the Sox loved him before that. A guy that again has a chance to be a high level defensive player at a premium position and has an offensive ceiling of an AllStar level player. If you could get them to include either Junior Fernandez or Marco Gonzales, both big time talents with a ton of risk, that would be the sweetener to me that would get a deal done.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Mar 29, 2017 -> 01:18 PM) I thought he was gone after this season for some reason. Thanks for the correction. Can still end up seeing time in the OF at the MLB level for a brief stint (Toles shouldn't block anyone). Yes, but they also have Puig, Pederson, Ethier, Van Slyke, and possibly Thompson in line for playing time in the OF as well. They have been working him in the OF, but I don't know if he can get enough at bats to warrant having him on the ML roster.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Mar 28, 2017 -> 12:00 AM) Not sure if it really makes a difference for a fringe prospect like May, but why not keep him in the minors for a couple weeks to get the extra year of control just in case he becomes something in the big leagues? Hes 25 and cant be a free agent until 31 so will likely past his prime when he hits free agency and hopefully supplanted by Basabe or Robert by then.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Mar 29, 2017 -> 10:25 AM) Their 1B for next year and on. They still have Gonzalez at 1B through 2018. QUOTE (zisk @ Mar 29, 2017 -> 12:37 PM) I agree the Astros could make it happen with several different pieces. It seems to me that the Dodgers want to compete every year and have so much money and talent that they would be more apt to go for it if they think Q might push them over the top. The window for the current incarnation of the Dodgers could be very small. Kershaw can opt out after next season and three other guys in their rotation are free agents, with Urias the only in house replacement near ready to help out. Gonzalez will be gone, Forsythe will be gone, and Grandal will be a FA. They also have $57M committed to Jansen, Hill, and Turner. I know money has not been an issue for them, but with rumblings last season about the amount of Dodger debt, odds are their free spending ways are going to slow down. Trading for Q will at least bring some stability to their rotation long term, in addition it gives them one less hole to fill after the 2018 season and allows them to compete this year with the makeshift rotation they have in place.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Mar 28, 2017 -> 08:02 AM) I don't think it would matter since it would be for this current period. I wonder if they could trade for an international bonus slot for next year as a PTBNL type of deal. Make the deal for a PTBNL or cash and then convert it to an international slot on J2.

"If Robert can get cleared to sign before June 15 (which seems likely given his timetable, though with MLB and international players, there isn’t much transparency to work with), the teams already over their bonus pools would be in the best position to sign him. That includes the Padres and Cardinals, two teams that have been the most aggressive spending this signing period with international players in general with several Cuban signings for each club. The Astros, Braves, Nationals, A’s and Reds are also over their bonus pools. If, for some reason, MLB does not clear Robert to sign until after June 15, those teams would essentially be eliminated from signing Robert, since they would be in the first year of a two-year penalty of being unable to sign any international amateur player for more than $300,000. The White Sox are not over their bonus pool, but they consistently come up in conversations as a team to watch for Robert." http://www.baseballamerica.com/internation...4FPQ1YA6LdT4.99 More talk about Robert, showcase is on Thursday so probably an explosion of chatter coming this weekend.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 27, 2017 -> 12:54 PM) Another interesting way around things would be to find him some sponsorship money Thats the other thing, he is going to do really well with sponsorships when he gets over here and will still be getting them from Japan as well, a piece of the total income equation that is often forgotten.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 27, 2017 -> 11:43 AM) The wild card in all of this is a Donald Trump Presidency. You know he is looking to destroy the captial gains and inheritance taxes. JR is smart enough to realize that any changes that happens in those areas could well be quickly overturned with a new President and Congress, and try to get something done in a limited time frame. Yeah, I don't see much happening on that front, he is burning through political capital quickly and Congressional ineptness is going nowhere. Though somewhat related, the Kushners were rumored to have a handshake deal to buy the Marlins from Loria despite not having the cash to get a deal done, which would lead to another Dodger like debt ceiling conversation.

QUOTE (bmags @ Mar 27, 2017 -> 12:41 PM) The Otani thing is hard to figure. It is almost irresponsible given what he could earn at age 25 to come over 2 (3?) years earlier and get 5-6 million. BUT - he wants to play in MLB and he will primarily be a pitcher. I do wonder if cases like Kenta Maeda are what is driving this. The usage of pitchers in Japan has been heavy, and has hurt their physical outlook. I wonder if that is why he wants to get over more quickly. The other question for Otani is if he doesn't come over next season, will his team refuse to post him until his next contract is up? That could put him in the MLB at closer to 29. Otani is making $2.37M this season. He could make more here through the signing bonus/arbitration process than he will staying in Japan for another 4 years. He can be a free agent at 28 if he comes over now or at 26 if he waits to come over. The earning potential of the second contract is much higher if he can come over and demonstrate success over the next six years. The other thing that teams are going to try and do is to sign him and then extend him in the way the Sox just extended Tim Anderson to try to circumvent the international signing rules. That means he would likely be signed for a one year $5.75M deal and then be "extended" following the first season to something ~$18-$20M/year for six years with one option year included.

The other piece to this equation is Otani. If he does end up coming over this winter as he has said he is going to do, and MLB sticks to its guns that there is no exception for him, someone is going to get him for a steal. The teams that are not making a splash on J2 will have a the best shot (Sox and Orioles for instance). So even if the Sox go all out for Robert in the 2017/18 J2 period and miss, they could have a really nice consolation prize in Otani.

QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Mar 26, 2017 -> 01:44 PM) WBWSF: Sigh....OK...for the 8,456th time. First off what any others investors want or wish MEANS ABSOLUTELY NOTHING...repeat NOTHING. JR has day to day control of the operations of the White Sox. IT IS IN HIS CONTRACT. He has the absolute final say on all matters including a possible sale. EVERY other minority owner can say, "we want to sell" but if JR says "no." That's it...over and done. Also unless JR is guilty of some type of illegal activity or is judged to no longer be in control of his mental capacity (i.e. unfit to run the operation) HE CAN NOT BE REMOVED FROM THAT POSITION. Again that is specifically stipulated in his contract. With the money the Sox are making no one can even hope to make that claim. Second, based on what I've been told and from what I've read if JR were to sell before he passed away the tax could be as much as 200 MILLION DOLLARS on him and his family. 200 MILLION. JR isn't the sharpest baseball guy around but he is a brilliant businessman who STARTED AS A TAX GUY. NO ONE knows the in's and out's of the tax laws better than him. If you think he is going to inflict that kind of penalty on his family you are being delusional. If the team is sold after he passes on the tax hit is much MUCH LOWER. Like it or not, for better or worse he is going to own the franchise until it is time for him to leave this existence or unless the tax laws are changed. But if you want to continue to believe in a fantasy then by all means...go for it. Sorry, I don't mean to offend but this constant repetition of nonsense gets old. And in the interest of full disclosure I have been asked to co-author a book on JR, one of the most successful and controversial sports owners in Chicago franchise history. I researched for six months including a number of direct interviews and put together a 75 page outline / format for the upcoming publication. The other person involved in this is now doing much of the writing. Basically I did most of the research and he is doing the other part of the process. He approached me with the idea. I thought it was worth my time and found it interesting so I did what I could. Much of the info on JR is actually public record if you look hard enough. Mark Again, this is crazy talk. Yes, the capital gains tax will be less, but they are going to end up spending more in taxes due to inheritance tax if JR dies before the sale than they would pay on capital gains plus they will still have to pay capital gains on top of what they paid in taxes on the inheritance. Taxes will have nothing to do with the sale of this team, and even if it is a driver, it would drive them to sell sooner than later.

I think Giolito is going to be fine. He is a big kid and it takes those guys with the long arms and legs a bit longer to refine their mechanics. It is the same problem that Glasnow has had, Randy Johnson had a slow start to his career too. He is going to take a bit longer to develop, and thats OK, but that is part of what makes me hesistant to take on Glasnow, because it is hard to have two guys like that in the org and give them both the time they need to develop. Giolito's stuff is legit, I have not seen anyone question that, but he is going to take a bit longer to develop his command and control.