harfman77

QUOTE (ron883 @ Aug 14, 2017 -> 09:34 AM) If the sox arent in playoff contention by 2019, the pitchforks will be out for Rick. This division blows. There are other teams that are going to be getting better in that time period too, the Twins are still at the beginning of bringing up what they have built in their system. Berrios is there now, Gonzalves is on the way, Gordon and Romero are not too far behind him, and Royce Lewis may be up by the start of the 2020 season. The Tigers are stuck in no mans land with too many overpriced assets to make a rebuild really work for them. The Indians are probably going to have tear things down next year given the state of their minor league system and proximity of the the majority of their pitching to free agency, but they could really retool quickly depending on the returns they get to build around Lindor, Zimmer, Mejia, and Ramirez.

saw Chuckie Robinson last night, he would be a nice piece back.

Sox trade Sanchez, Leury, Saladino and Avi over the offseason. C Navarez 1B Abreu 2B Moncada SS Anderson 3B Davidson RF Wily Garcia CF Tilson LF Engel DH Delmonico/FA UT - Cordrell UT - Hanson C - Smith BE - Ashe SP Rodon SP FA - one year deal SP Shields SP Lopez SP Holmberg/Giolito CP - Fulmer SU - Jones RP - Bummer RP - Petricka RP - Beck RP - FA LHRP SW - Danish/Holmberg

You get to a point where someone is not going to play and their value is going to wilt on the vine. With Moncada, Anderson, and Davidson playing every day, there are limited at bats for both Yolmer and Tyler, so one really needs to either get sent out or moved down so they are playing everyday. I wish they would have kept Moncada down, he wasn't destroying AAA and the team doesn't really need him, no reason to keep that service time clock rolling. Let Yolmer play every day and build value and trade him over the winter.

Rutherfords upside is a guy who hits .280/30 HR/20 SB and plays elite RF. Not sure he gets there, but that is what you should get if he were to hit his ceiling.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 01:27 PM) After the JD martinez trade I don't think we'll get much back. I'd be happy to keep Avi and take that "risk" as it seems small. If he is actually good maybe it will be like a starlin castro situation. JD is a pure rental though and the Diamondbacks will get no compensation when he walks at the end of the season. Avi still is under team control for 2 years which is worth a lot more, if a team buys into him having figured things out.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 11:07 AM) And I think people need to stop and think about what they are saying when they say "No FA like that is going to want to come to the Sox." As someone aptly said yesterday, "This is not your Father's White Sox organization." If enough of these guys pan out, and we've got a really talented young team on the field, I will ask the question: Why would Bryce Harper NOT want to come to the White Sox? I would love to land a guy like that, but can't see any major superstars ever coming to the Sox. They lose too much money on endorsements by playing in the shadows and not getting the recognition they deserve. Take Sale for instance, one of the top two or three pitchers in baseball and he has to go to Boston to get people to take notice of how good he really is. I think it is much more likely the Sox acquire someone like Stanton that the Marlins don't want to pay anymore, has superstar upside and is locked in long term. Stanton to the Phillies speculation has made it sound like a Stanton trade would be a salary dump. The 10 years and $285M left on the deal (plus an option with a $10M buyout) would get the Sox a generational talent with a much more realistic pricetag than what Harper is going to command.

From earlier this summer on mlbtr: Even though White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu could serve as a mentor to fellow Cubans Yoan Moncada and Luis Robert, they’re not necessarily inclined to keep Abreu, relays Rosenthal. Sounds like Abreu could be dealt in the right deal, though with Alonso, Hosmer, Cabrera and allegedly Belt on the market, there are a lot of options. Possible teams with interest in Abreu: Boston - Moreland started off the year well and has hit a wall. They could really use an offensive upgrade. Houston - The Correa injury opens an opprtunity here. With Correa hurt, they could move Bregman to SS, Guriel back to his traditional 3B and slide Abreu in at 1B the rest of the season. When Correa returns they use Bregman as a UTL the rest of the season and Abreu slides into the DH role next year. St Louis - Cardinals have infield issues, acquiring Abreu fits their budget and allows Carpenter to move across to the hot corner while providing a massive offensive upgrade. Tampa- They are in contention and could use another bat and Abreu would give them a huge upgrade to what they have had from Miller as the DH.

I am a little torn on what I feel about the deal. I would have preferred to get more quality prospects in the form of perhaps 2 guys in the 8-15 range and another in the 15-25 range given that the Sox had to take on a bad contract. I do get the appeal of getting Rutherford, he was speculated to be a top 5 pick a year ago and seems to be on a good trajectory. With Clarkins injury history, this deal revolves a lot around the success of Rutherford. Polo seems like a 4th OF type, which will add some value. This was a trade that put a premium on acquiring quality over quantity. I get the idea, and it is high risk, but to get a top 30 prospect for a rental, a guy that people wanted to DFA last season, and a guy who very well may be a flash in the pan is a win.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 08:36 AM) It is interesting how many people think picking up Panda's contract is a good thing. A. Boston is flush with cash and not over the luxury tax. If these prospects are a bargain for $50 million, why would they be in the business of selling them? And B. JR just spent $50 million on a prospect. He certainly isn't going to spend $50 million on another, and neither would anyone here if they actually owned the team. He may not spend $50M on one, but if it gets him a couple prospects I don't think that salary will stand in the way given the contract obligations the Sox have over the rest of his contract. Panda is still young(ish) and could bounce back to the point where you would be able to move him a year from now. He would not be the first player to go into Boston and struggle under the expectations and then rebound somewhere else. If they are willing to include a good enough prospect haul in return, the Sox should absolutely consider it.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 17, 2017 -> 10:40 AM) These type of deals do not involve shifting $4 million in signing money. usually 1/2 million or so. That was under the old system though when teams were assigned international signing slots. Now there aren't slots and teams can trade away 3/4 of their total pool. Based on receiving a top 20 org prospect, its reasonable to think that the Sox gave up 75% of their pool (which they can't really use anyway) and recouped a decent prospect out of the situation.

QUOTE (ChiSoxJon @ Jul 17, 2017 -> 08:51 AM) I like the attempt but I highly doubt CWS is able to move any of those first 4 I think they will. The Astros could use some back of the rotation help with the performance, injuries, and suspensions they are dealing with. The Nationals could be looking for someone to step in for Ross to give them some innings. The Dbacks may want to get some insurance for some of their young pitching for the second half. There are going to be opportunities to make some deals involving those guys in the next two weeks, the returns won't be anything that seems incredible, but you can get some reclamation projects (like a Kahnle) and see if you can make anything out of them.

QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Jul 16, 2017 -> 04:02 PM) A's got hosed. Way to lower the bar for relievers Oakland. I'm not sure about that. Treinen is a legit guy, albeit having a down year. Beane said he had two teams contact him immediately to try and acquire him. If Treinen regains his form as the 2 WAR RP from last year he will have a good amount of value when the A's flip him next summer. Luzardo is a guy that was really highly thought of before his TJS, and early returns are adding to his value.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jul 17, 2017 -> 10:38 AM) I'm firmly in the trade him camp, but only if the return is reasonable. I'm not asking for a stupid package, but I would need at least one quality prospect back. I think that is a given, Hahn seems to be a shrewd negotiator and has done well in bringing back talent for the assets that he has moved thus far. I can see him getting a guy in the 75-100 range for Kahnle given his success, control, and salary.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jul 17, 2017 -> 10:45 AM) That's funny, it seemed to me they were in perpetual rebuilding mode. Yeah, I kinda felt the same way. Beane, who noted that the A’s have “never really committed to a full rebuild,” suggested that the team will do just that as it eyes a new stadium. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/07/west...ers-padres.html

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Jul 15, 2017 -> 11:23 PM) Lefty, a little younger, already in AA putting up better numbers, will steal you 15-20 bags a year. They are a little more than a month apart in age. I like Jimenez's lower K rate and believe he is better bet to hit for power long term. Myrtle Beach is allegedly a park that heavily favors pitchers, and he put up solid numbers there. I like the idea of finding some LH OF bats to complement what the Sox are putting together, but I think Jimenez is the superior hitting prospect long term.

Beane says A's are going into full rebuild mode for the first time in his tenure. Unfortunately for them, they do not have a lot in the way of present assets to trade away for prospects. Scouts reportedly not big on Gray post-injury. Quotes saying that he is still a nice pitcher, but not the ace he was.

Trade him. Relievers value is so volatile from year to year that you have to cash in when you can. The Sox aren't competing as long is Kahnle is controlled so you might as well get some value to supplement what you are building.

I like the pickup, the guy has an electric arm and if he can't hit he seems to have a good frame to move to the mound and eventually be a bullpen guy down the road.

QUOTE (whitesoxwinner @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 05:43 PM) Rodon will not be traded He will at some point, he won't be extended and he will hit free agency right in the middle of the contention window. If he has a second half similar to last season I can see him getting moved over the winter especially with the what quality pitching is going to cost in FA.

QUOTE (Enscheff @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 05:27 PM) I've said exactly that about 5 times now. I laid out what to expect from the Braves. If I were Hahn, I would look elsewhere. However, if Allard or Soroka are indeed the best available piece, I would not risk letting Q continue to waste his value pitching for a losing team. His value is not going to increase...we've already seen that. Established SPs never increase in value...only lose it as their years of control tick away. Every fan likes to think "this scenario is different", but it's not different...it's never different. Yes, it will be very interesting. The Braves have a lot of interesting pitching, but that might not be a fit. However, Hahn has a history of being into 3 ways, so you never know. Hahn needs at least one really good hitting prospect back, I understand that no fan base is interested in giving those guys up, so it will be interesting to see who flinches.

QUOTE (Enscheff @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 05:13 PM) I've seen these values hold up pretty well actually. The disconnect seems to occur when folks fail to factor in the contender's premium teams pay for the current year...usually ~2x the value of the current rest of season projected production plus projected postseason production. Knowing you are going to use a player in the postseason is extremely valuable, and teams are forced to pay for that value accordingly when they make these trades. Well, according to the chart, the Cubs traded over $100M in surplus value for four months of Aroldis Chapman, which is a premium closer to 10x than 2x. The return the Yankees got for Miller, what the Sox got for Eaton and Sale, all show that things aren't quite as linear as is presented in that article and the author really minimizes the risk of prospects based on their distance from the majors as a further discount in his formula. As a Pirates fan, he definitely has a vested interest in overvaluing prospects, and the market was moving in the same direction in the last few seasons after the success of the Royals. But things appeared to have over corrected in the last year.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 05:03 PM) Braves still have enough depth in their system to overcome dealing Albies + Gohara + Pache + lotto ticket Demeritte can cover 2B and Riley can cover 3B. You still have plenty of arms and Acuna/Maitan in the system. I think its Carmago at 2B and Freeman at 3B.

QUOTE (Enscheff @ Jul 12, 2017 -> 04:41 PM) Braves fan here checking in to see perspectives from the other side of this madness. Knowledgeable Braves fans over at ChopCountry.com seem to realize Q's surplus value is in the $70M+ range, plus whatever contender's premium the acquiring team is willing to pay. Based on the consensus mid-season rankings and this surplus valuation of top prospects:http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-pr...pdated-edition/ I would currently value the Braves top handful of guys as: Acuna - $70M Albies - $55M Allard/Soroka/Newk/Wright - $35M Maitan - $25M Anderson - $20M Gohara - $15M Pache - $15M Nobody with half a clue wants to see the Braves give up any of the top position prospects (excepting Pache), and I personally think the Braves value Wright above all the other pitchers. That leaves a package centered around Allard and/or Soroka. Each of them only represents about half of Q's surplus value, so there would have to be (several) significant pieces added. The biggest issue most knowledgeable Braves fans have with a possible Q acquisition is the timing. We all saw how dumb it was for Coppy to hold onto Teheran through the rebuild while his most valuable years were wasted on a losing team, and we don't want to see the Braves pay a premium for Q now in a non-competitive season. Losing teams simply should not be making "win now" moves. If the Braves are going to cash in prospect chips for a SP, I would prefer to see them wait until next trade deadline (if they are competitive), and go for Archer or whichever other TOR is available. If I were a Sox fan, I would NOT be happy with a Q return that consists of mainly pitching, but that's likely what you will see form the Braves. Personally, I think Hahn is using the Braves as leverage to get the Yanks or Astros to cough up an elite position prospect. Thanks for the post. Its nice to get some perspective from another fanbase sometimes. Not a shot directed at you, because we do the same thing, but I think it is funny that some Pirates fan puts together a guess of how prospects should be valued and we all reference it like it has some meaning. I think that his theory was blown out of the water given the prospect returns we have seen in the last year.

I think the Sox can pull two org top 10's plus two more prospects, but those prospects will depend on how good the first two are. I can see them taking a flier on an injured SP given they scouted each during the draft process last year. Yankees - Rutherford, Acevedo, Jorge Guzman, Thairo Estrada Rockies - Pint, McMahon, Pedro Gonzalez, Mike Nikorak* Braves - Maitan, Fried, Pache, Braxton Davidson Brewers - Hader, Ray, Medeiros, Nathan Kirby* Dodgers - Buehler, Yusniel Diaz, Ronny Brito, Oneil Cruz