harfman77

QUOTE (heirdog @ Feb 21, 2017 -> 11:02 AM) Why would the Sox want Derek Norris? Severino is a good get. If you can pair him with someone like Voth, Stevenson or Neuse, it's a fair deal. Soto would seem off the table unless we are picking up a majority of the DRob contract Norris could be valuable in helping the young pitchers on staff in providing a good framer and calls a pretty solid game. Norris was the number one catching prospect in baseball not too long ago, and still has some upside. If he puts his offense together, you are looking at a huge trade chip. That said, I would still rather have Severino given their contract status.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Feb 21, 2017 -> 12:30 PM) Why would the Sox take on roughly 60 million in remaining salary? That would make little sense, even if a top prospect was attached Frazier's trade value is close to non existent at this point. Our best bet is for him to bounce back and have a strong first half Thats not really true. Frazier still carries significant value, the issue in dealing Frazier is that there is no market for him at this point. Almost all the contenders have legitimate 3B candidates already and there aren't any non-contenders that are interested in giving up anything of value for a one year rental. For a market for Frazier to develop, you would need the Braves to be a legit contender in the NL East, Sandoval to get hurt/or permanently moved to 1B/DH, Johnny Peralta to get traded/released or the Yankees to find themselves in contention. Other than that, there just aren't any viable places for him to land. Given the positions of each of those teams, they are going to go into the season with what they have and find out where they are when the summer rolls around. Thats when they will start to feel comfortable about giving up assets for a one year rental.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Feb 21, 2017 -> 12:57 PM) Sox need to do a better job with international scouting and signings The bonus skimming deal really set them back, but hopes are that Paddy can start to right the ship Frankly, the mlb needs to overhaul it's international player rules. Having a few clubs go nuts with overspending in certain years is really not the best way to handle it. Next CBA should include more discussion on an international draft This was fixed in the current CBA. The pools are now a hard cap.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Feb 21, 2017 -> 10:51 AM) It's pretty clear the Sox are much more inclined to get three or four notable guys as opposed to one big fish and maybe another guy or two that are notable. I am not sure it's the worst plan but the results aren't that promising. It is hard to fault that approach given how things have worked out not only for the Sox, but for all of the LA talent that has been signed. You have a couple guys that stand out as big money signings that have lived up to their bonuses, but you also have quite a lot of guys that were signed for less than $500K that have become at least regulars in the MLB. When the Sox went for Adolfo, they spent a ton of money on a highly rated guy, and that approach didn't really work out either as Adolfo now barely ranks in the orgs top 30 prospects. On the flip side, the Sox just acquired Reynaldo Lopez, a top 25 prospect in baseball and he was signed for $17K. Fernando Tatis Jr. was a guy signed for $825K who has developed into a legitimate prospect and was a product of the Sox "shotgun method" approach. The LA market is such a crapshoot, even those teams that have busted through their spending limits have had mixed results. Yes, they have ended up with some high end talent, but they have seen a lot of guys turn into non-assets. I used to think that if the Sox weren't pushing the limits, they weren't really engaged, but based on results it is hard to fault their process.

QUOTE (shipps @ Feb 14, 2017 -> 12:23 PM) I am slow. Is there a direct link to the Pirates trading Cutch and them trading for Q? There is a ton of rumors out there that they want to trade Cutch again. Seems to be heating up on that front. The thought is that the Pirates budget is maxed out and they need to move payroll before bringing on Q's salary. They can also use the prospects to throw in a Q deal as a Cutch trade takes Meadows out of play.

QUOTE (heirdog @ Feb 10, 2017 -> 08:19 PM) Severino and Voth...Robertson and $8-10 million Could be after AJ Jimenez

I expect Frazier and Abreu to have a bit of a bounceback to get closer to their career averages, Cabrera will be solid as well. Garcia will at least duplicate if not surpass his production from last year. Second base should be at least as good if not better. RF and C will be worse. The rotation will be worse, but not as significant of a drop off as Rodon should improve and Shields has to be at least a little better. This team could realistically duplicate last years win total if the players play to their career averages. The problem last year is that so many played below that level for the last half of the season that it is tough to predict them to rebound. Without moving Abreu, Q, and Frazier, I don't see this team being bad enough to contend for a top draft pick. Even if they are moved, there are so many bad teams that it the Sox could finish with the same record with a much worse team.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 3, 2017 -> 12:36 PM) Regarless of if it could be traded or not, why would the 75th pick in the draft interest anyone? Get a player that has been developed and can be projected far more accurately. And I am all for Reed. His stock has fallen, he isn't even expected to make their team, but last year he would have been a headliner. He might bust, but the payoff could be as huge as he is. The pick itself, no, by the additional pool money that accompanies it may allow you to grab first round talent with your second pick.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Feb 2, 2017 -> 05:56 PM) Who is even left to play OF at that point to form "one of the better defensive OF's in baseball"? You could have Tilson in LF, Engle in CF, Willy Garcia in RF would be one of the better if not the best OF's in baseball defensively. Offensively it would likely be a trainwreck. But, if you are tanking and trying to sell off pitchers, putting together a no bat all defense team makes your pitchers look really good while not really staying competitive.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Feb 2, 2017 -> 04:14 PM) No surprise really. The OF defense has to be dragging these projections down. I think it is too soon to know what the Sox are going to be on defense. If Garcia is DFA'ed in ST and Cabrera becomes the everyday DH, they could have one of the better defensive OF's in baseball. Or they could with the all Garcia OF to try and tank. Too many permutations at this time to buy into what they are selling.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Feb 2, 2017 -> 01:32 PM) This is very generous. Avisail Garcia would dream of a .469 SLG with 24 homers. In no universe is Avisail Garcia a better player than Corey Dickerson is. The Sox bad players are worse than the Rays' but that's fine. Yeah, I messed that one up as explained above. I will edit.

QUOTE (pablo @ Feb 2, 2017 -> 01:05 PM) I'd disagree with you on: The Rays OF + DH is much better than what the Sox are throwing out there currently. Miller and Abreu are closer than what you are leading on (which is why he doesn't have much trade value beyond his name recognition) and Franklin and Lawrie are likely a wash. After Q and Archer, the Rays rotation is better as a whole as well with an improving Snell and Cobb more than a year removed from TJS. Andriese is significantly better than Holland which is more of an indictment against Holland. I would take the Rays team as currently constructed over the Sox, but the Rays play in a tougher division so it evens itself out. The Rays won 68 games last year and the Sox won 78. I wouldn't be surprised if they flipped this year to be honest, but I'll peg both for 73 wins. I don't agree on the OF. I think that the Rays OF is extremely overrated because of Kiermaiers defense. He is not a good player offensively and is really just a league average player (OPS+ - 104). I think Tilson could be league average but will give Kiermaier the benefit of the doubt since he has demonstrated ability. Cabrera is a much better offensive player than Rasmus, in RF Souza as a league average player will be better than whatever the Sox throw out there, but not enough to make up the gap between Rasmus and Cabrera. Dickerson is better than Garcia, I was thinking of Chris Dickerson instead of Corey. Chris is garbage and I thought he had caught on with the Rays (I haven't paid much attention to them).

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 2, 2017 -> 12:52 PM) Anyone else think Gonzalez is going to implode this year? I hope he doesn't but I can't help but have this feeling. Perhaps, but outside of 2015, his numbers last season were on par with his career numbers. He is certainly a candidate to decline at age 32, but I think he will be a league average mid-rotation (3-4) starter.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Feb 2, 2017 -> 12:32 PM) I think their offense is better than the White Sox. Rays have: Longoria, Kiermaier, Dickerson, Ramos, Rasmus, Souza, Franklin, Duffy with Adames knocking on the door. Their lineup is better. Their rotation is better too. C - Soto >> Maile (Ramos is out at least until May and may not be able to catch) 1B - Abreu >> Miller 2B - Lawrie > Franklin SS - Anderson = Duffy 3B - Frazier LF - Cabrera >> Rasmus CF - Tilson RF - Liriano DH - Garcia I think their lineup is worse. Probably the second worst in MLB behind the Padres. SP - Q = Archer SP - Rodon > Odorizzi SP - Shields SP - Gonzalez > Cobb SP - Holland >> Andriese I think the rotation is pretty much a wash.

QUOTE (SoxSteve @ Feb 2, 2017 -> 11:41 AM) Maybe pick up Martes in trade and then ship him to the Yankees for a couple of their position prospects like Frazier and Rutheford. Just spitballing here. Prospect for prospect trades are really rare, especially high level prospects.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Feb 2, 2017 -> 11:34 AM) I actually think the Rays and A's will be better than the Sox this year if they trade Q. I think so too, but they still have Q. If the Rays trade Archer and the Sox trade Q, I still think the Sox would be better. Outside of Longoria, their offense is ridiculously bad, and even he is starting to slip.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Feb 2, 2017 -> 11:30 AM) I don't get this logic. It's not like the Sox wouldn't be calling other teams saying that they are talking to the Rangers about so-and-so. There is also public pressure from ticket holders and ownership. There is a large PR aspect that goes into making these deals. Look at the Pittsburgh fanbase for instance, they are almost in revolt over their teams hoarding of prospects and what they see as a lack of a commitment to making a deal to put the team over the top. That gets the season ticket holders in a tizzy which makes ownership anxious which leads to pressure being put on the GM to make a deal. Now, the Astros fans may start saying that they need to go ahead and give up what Q is worth to keep him away from Texas and put pressure on the team to get a deal done. There is a huge issue related to optics in making these kinds of trades. Now when the Astros give up Martes, Tucker, +++ JL can say to his fanbase that it was the price that needed to be paid to get him to Houston and keep him out of Arlington.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Feb 2, 2017 -> 11:05 AM) It does indicate that for whatever reason, The White Sox wanted it out there that Texas in interested. Ofman tweeted Texas interested at 2:36 yesterday and Bob at 2:41. I'm pretty sure their source is the same person. It helps the Sox because it puts pressure on the Astros to make a deal before he goes to a division rival. It also gets it out there that there is another team in the mix, which can push the market up for everyone, which is why the Rangers would immediately deny it.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Feb 1, 2017 -> 08:40 PM) The Sox benefit from the NL having more of a race to the bottom - only the A's seem to also be in a no-compete mode in the AL. If Hahn gets rid of Q, Frazier and Robertson they'll be a 1-1 contender. Also worth noting, the Sox have acquired two pre-season favorite 1-1s in Rodon and Hansen over the past few years without the first pick. I think the Twins are pretty much in tank mode as well, which hurts the Sox having a tanking team in the same division. Going by division: NL East - Phillies NL Central - Brewers, Reds NL West - Padres !!! AL East - perhaps Rays...not sure yet, they are trying to move their starting pitching and their offense is garbage. AL Central - Sox, Twins AL West - A's The Sox are also hurt from having two re-tooling teams in the division in the Tigers and the Royals while the Padres have three legit playoff contending teams in their division as well as what should be a much improved Rockies. If I were to guess an order based on the rosters today: 1.1 Padres 1.2 Brewers 1.3 Twins 1.4 Reds 1.5 Sox

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 04:17 PM) I could care less who we trade Q to if it means we are getting the best package in return, even if that comes from the Cubs A high profile deal like this is unlikely because if it goes wrong one team will have regret for years Quintana could make sense for the Cubs due to the 4 years and relatively low cost because it would allow them to still spend on free agents moving forward Replacing Arrieta (potentially and Lackey after this season is not going to be cheap. The Cubs window is right now before all their young guys get more expensive after hitting their arbitration years. The Sox would want at least one interesting arm to go along with Jimenez, Happ and Candelario, but it would add Quintana without subtracting from the mlb roster at all I just can't see the Sox and Cubs coming together for a deal. It makes a ton of sense logically as they are a great match on paper, but when it comes to PR and Q excelling at Wrigley while the prospects all bust or vice versa and seeing that on the local news every night can enrage your fanbase and lead to incessant questions from the media on why such a deal was made which makes both sides hesitant to make a deal. If the Sox or Cubs were in any other city I think they would have probably already made a deal.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 11:02 AM) Paul Goldschmidt couldn't turn the DBacks into contenders on his own. I think the setup with Moncada is this: if he were to bust or get injured, it is a 2 year setback in rebuilding at the very least. You name guys like Collins, Joel Booker - those are guys who are 2 or more years behind Moncada, who should be tearing up AAA this year and hopefully ready for a brief stint at the end of the season. The other guys will be in A-ball and AA, and if they're up in 2019 that means they were pushed rapidly through levels and you probably expect them to need more big league development time. Hopefully we'll add some more big league ready pieces when Quintana goes, but if Moncada does not become a top of the league player, we will be unlikely to have the ability to find equivalent talent out of our system any time soon. How will we come up with that? 2 ways - wait 2-3 years longer so that other draft picks can work their way through, or....move Rodon and start this again. I have always felt like this was going to be at least a three year process to begin to become competitive again. Even if Moncada busts out next season, there is not going to be the supporting cast around him to help him out. I also think that Rodon is going to be traded as part of the rebuild process, possibly as early as next winter. There is little to no chance of an extension with him as a Boras client and with the way that I believe the window of contention is going to shape up, he will enter free agency right when the Sox are in the prime of the window of contention with the group they are assembling. I know people feel this team is going to be right in the thick of things as early as next year with the pitching core they are assembling, but the offense is going to be dreadful, probably worse than dreadful. This team is going to lose at least two of its three most productive offensive players after this season, and will be in firm contention for the #1 overall pick in 2019. I think 2020 is where this team starts being competitive again as Collins, Moncada, Basabe, and hopefully some of the acquisitions from the trades of Rodon and Q are ready to contribute in addition to top draft picks from 2017 and 2018. With hopefully an abundance of SP depth, Hahn can make some deals to fill in the holes in the roster that they aren't able to fill through the draft or in one of the rotation deals.

I am not a big fan of the Astros top guys. I think Martes ends up in the pen, Paulino has too many injury concerns, and Tucker is just too far away to value at the level he is being valued. Fisher has too many holes in his game for his age with pitch recognition issues. I am much more interested in a depth based trade with Laureano, Perez, Reed, Cionel Perez, MiguealAngel Sierra, 75th pick. The pick really is more of a way to manipulate pool money for the Sox to give a guy who slips out of the first round equivalent money in the second round. Its a complete depth deal, with a ton of upside balanced with proximity in Reed and Laureano.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 06:41 PM) I've actually been thinking about this a lot lately. Its not just if Moncada flops the Sox are in trouble, if Moncada is anything less than one of the best 20 or so players in baseball the Sox are in trouble. You need that MVP-type talent in your lineup to win. Look at every playoff team this year. Only the Mets and Giants really lacked an MVP-type player this season (and Posey has been that type of guy historically). The Sox have only one blue chip prospect who has that kind of ceiling, it doesn't look they will be getting one for Quintana and unless they start really unloading players getting one from the 2018 draft is similarly unlikely. So it all falls on the shoulders of Yoan Moncada to be a superstar. I think Collins and Anderson are both going to be good players, maybe if were lucky they'll even find themselves in ASG or two by the time their careers are over, and the Quintana trade should net them a couple more like that. So should the #11 pick. But finding another blue chip guy is a difficult thing to do, and until the Sox have another one its all on Moncada or for someone to just come out of absolutely nowhere and surprise all of us. The flip side is if Moncada does hit his ceiling and the Sox do a reasonably good job developing these pitchers and putting a decent team around him they'll be a team clearly on the rise as early as 2018, if not this year. It would be great if Moncada turns into a star, but even if he doesn't the Sox approach is going to make them a competitive team. Collins may turn into a LH Paul Goldsmit, heck Joel Booker could develop into an all star player, there are so many variables out there to put so much pressure on one player to be the organizations savior. RH just needs to continue down the path of selling his assets for outstanding returns and not cave on his asking prices. From the Sale trade, he received four guys that have the potential to be above average contributors, and two that could project as all-stars. The Sox need to focus on quantity of quality prospects regardless of positions. When there is a problem with too many really good guys on the 40 man roster, some of that depth can be moved to find the guy that you want Moncada to be.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 05:50 PM) No reason to move Jose right now given that Moncada is critical to the future and it would behoove the Sox to do everything possible to make sure he's in a great state of mind entering this season. Moncada either steps into the bigs this year, holds his own (say coming up in July for a good 250+ PA run) or he stalls and his status as a potential superstar takes a big hit. If his state of mind is so fragile that he is going to bust if Abreu's traded, hes going to bust anyway.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 30, 2017 -> 02:17 PM) http://www.scout.com/mlb/rumors/story/1749...de-ideas-week-4 Scout.com proposes this deal for Robertson: Chicago White Sox receive: RHP Erick Fedde, RHP Austin Voth, C Pedro Severino Washington Nationals receive: RHP David Robertson I highly doubt a contender like the Nationals goes into the 2017 season without a true closer. Robertson is not elite, but at least he provides a league average closer for the Nats and helps bring stability to the back of the pen. If Washington would eat the entire contract I would consider that deal. Robertson's value could be considerable at the deadline though when he is owed less money on his contract I'd take that in a minute. Fedde has mid rotation potential, Severino can at least be a backup C at the MLB level with the potential to be an above average starter at the position. I don't know Voth, but the two other pieces are a solid enough base for me.