harfman77

QUOTE (oldsox @ Jan 5, 2017 -> 02:57 PM) I think you will be sold on Anderson 6 months from now. Hope I'm right. I hope you are too, his walk rate is just soo low and has been at every level, and is OSwing is pretty high ration against his Zswing that make me think he will have pitche recognition and contact issues. I think he is a great athlete, and has a chance to be a good hitter, but the majors is a bad place to learn plate discipline.

QUOTE (illinilaw08 @ Jan 5, 2017 -> 10:45 AM) Glasnow, Newman, Hayes and Diaz would be a pretty good return from where I'm sitting if the Pirates insist on not including Meadows. The only issue I can see with Newman is whether he's ultimately blocked by Anderson and Moncada. I'd love Bell as a second piece, but would be pretty surprised if the Pirates moved him. I would not be worried about having too many quality up the middle players. If Newman can play you can find another position for either Anderson or Moncada. I am still not really sold that Anderson is going to make it as a ML player.

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 09:27 PM) Acuna is tearing up winter league (take it fwiw), so I'd def want him in any package. Albies, Maitan, Acuna, and Soroka? I think the deal would be closer to Albies, one of Maitain/Acuna/Demeritte, Fried/Wentz, lottery ticket.

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 03:43 PM) What you and a lot of people aren't getting tho is that the buyer never sets the market value. We as fans and even the front office of the Sox can put whatever value on Sale/Q we want, but if no team meets that price it's just an imaginary value. Value is set by the buying teams. Boston's offer was exactly what Sale's value was...obviously because that's the deal we took making it the best offer on the table. Not to mention saying that the deal was a top 20 prospect "light" is absolutely ridiculous. Actually, the buyers always set the market. If there is no one willing to pay the price, there is no market and if you have several willing to meet your price, the market is driven upward.

QUOTE (shipps @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 03:22 PM) For some reason reading about the Yankees valuing their prospects more than the big names made me think back to when I was a teenager and that was the complete opposite. Is it because of the metrics that have been established that teams are more confident in prospect success (more valued as future assets to the org) and there is less of a roll of the dice as it used to be when talent evaluators went off of a couple stats and did mostly everything by the eye test? Why havent I connected the dots with this before now?! I am an idiot! I think it has to do a lot with the crack down on PED's. Players were performing well deep into their 30's 15 years ago, now the drop off is a lot more pronounced and is occurring closer to a players age 30 season. There is not a lot of benefit in spending a ton in free agency now, knowing that the back half of whatever deal you sign is basically going to be dead money as many players are not reaching FA until they are near 30. So instead teams are hoarding younger players and rolling the dice that they can develop a solid core and then fill in gaps through FA or augment in the trade market when the team is lined up for a title run. Right now it seems like a lot of teams are taking a shotgun approach and just trying to amass as much young talent as possible as it seems less of a risk than gambling on veteran talent.

QUOTE (illinilaw08 @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 11:41 AM) Q has pitched at his ceiling over the last 3 years. Consistently very, very good is the best case scenario for Q. The pitching market is legitimately awful today. Q's not going to get more valuable than he is today. Compare that to Eaton, whose defense in RF last year pushed his value to the point that the Sox ultimately raided the Nats' system in a trade. The Sox may not get the headliner that they want for Q, but unless they plan to hold on to Q for the duration of his contract, his value will likely never be higher than it is today. The thing is, with the new luxury tax system, Q is still going to be just as valuable next offseason barring injury. You have four teams currently over the limit and all are going to need pitching and at some point in the next couple years when the luxury tax raises significantly - http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/...iggest-payrolls The Dodgers, Yankees, and Cubs especially are going to need cost controlled arms to replace what they are losing from their rotations.

QUOTE (Buehrlesque @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 11:10 AM) I keep seeing this but don't agree with it. Why is it risky just for the Sox? Other teams' players' stocks will rise and fall as well. Just as an example, Tyler Glasnow is more likely to get injured or underperform than Quintana. Do you think the Sox could have nabbed Giolito (plus more) for Eaton at this point last year? TINSTAAPP I hope it gets done soon for convenience sake, but I don't there is added risk in waiting if offers aren't up to par anyway. Plus, teams in midseason pennant races can clearly seeing glaring needs manifest themselves right in front of them, and don't have the luxury of playing the long game of hardball with the trade deadline looming and playoffs tantalizingly close. The Hamels deal from a year and a half ago is a blueprint for what you can do at the deadline where the Phillies hauled in six players for Hamels and Diekman. Three of those players were top 50 prospects, one was an established ML pitcher, and two were ML ready arms. With Q's contract he should be able to pull in a similar haul, and teams are known to panic and overpay in July for a chance at a ring - see what the Yankees did this summer as an example.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 10:10 AM) If this is true, we all may be slightly disappointed with the haul. If they're intent on finishing a deal before camp opens, they will end up settling for best offer. That may be their intention now, but that could change based on the offers they receive. I have seen nothing from Hahn that makes me think he will settle for an inferior package to move an extremely valuable asset.

C: AJP 1B: Frank Thomas 2B: Ray Durham SS: Alexei Ramirez 3B: Robin Ventura LF: Tim Raines CF: Lance Johnson RF: Magglio Ordonez DH: Jim Thome OF: Bo Jackson IF: Juan Uribe C: Ron Karkovice 1B: Paul Konerko SP: Chris Sale SP: Alex Fernandez SP: Jack McDowell SP: Mark Buerhle SP: Wilson Alvarez RP: Matt Thornton RP: Nate Jones RP: Boone Logan RP: Roberto Hernandez RP: Bobby Jenks RP: Keith Foulke CP: Bobby Thigpen

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 10:01 AM) Makes a ton of sense IMO. It's hard to imagine a better market for starting pitching and holding onto him four another 4+ months is risky. Seems like the Sox will wait this thing out until closer to February before reducing their ask. I'm fine with that because there really isn't another quality option like Q and a team might get desperate and do something stupid. If not, we should still be able to get a quality return right before camp opens. We are about six weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training, the more important deadline though is probably March 10 when Venezuela plays their first WBC game.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 4, 2017 -> 09:17 AM) I'd be willing to bet Bellinger is why the Dodgers haven't been able to snag Dozier from the twins. The twins probably insist on Bellinger being apart of the trade deal similar to the Sox insisting on Meadows from the Pirates. Can't say I blame the Dodgers for insisting on keeping Bellinger, I would too. The Dodger front office is rebuilding that organization from the ground up. That team is going to be scary once the high priced vets are gone. A deep farm and even deeper pockets are going to keep them in contention for many years. I really don't like the Dodgers but man they know what they are doing. The rumor is that the Dodgers are offering DeLeon straight up and the Twins want additional pieces.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 3, 2017 -> 11:37 AM) My point was many are fixated on a Q trade. Once he goes, and maybe a couple of lesser deals, there will be nothing. If you are bored to tears right now, it's going to last a while after something happens in the next few weeks. Next offseason will be about as boring for a Sox fan as it can get. Yeah, I get that, many have said they have the patience for a rebuild but two months later are starting to panic because all of the veterans have yet to have been traded. This is going to take a while. Q and Jones could get moved anytime, Robertson, Frazier, Abreu, and Cabrera are unlikely to be moved until after the season has started when teams get a better idea of what they have on their roster.

I think Rodon gets moved as part of this rebuild, but its not the right time yet. The earliest I could see him being dealt is at the trade deadline but most likely it is next winter when a team is looking for a high level cost controlled arm to get (or stay) under the luxury tax.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 3, 2017 -> 10:14 AM) After the Sox trade Q and Robertson and Frazier or Melky, it's going to be really hard to be a White Sox fan. The team will absolutely suck, and next offseason there will be very little action. They will not have much to trade. They won't be signing big names. Its been hard to be a Sox fan for a while. Incoherent roster construction, questionable signings, poor player development, lack of situational baseball IQ, have all made things pretty frustrating for quite a while. I know the team is going to suck and I feel OK with that, because every other year I thought they might have a shot they sucked anyway. At least this way my expectations are aligned with what we will see, and it will hopefully lead to a period of sustained success down the road.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 2, 2017 -> 01:38 PM) If Quintana and Frazier are dealt the Sox are probably still favorites for #1 overall. The cutthroat AL will provide more losses than the Padres AAA roster. The Padres play in a division with Giants and Dodgers two legit WS contenders plus the Diamondbacks and Rockies should be much improved. The Sox division is pretty much garbage outside of Cleveland as the Twins are going to take a step back when they move Dozier, the Tigers are starting to deal away veteran talent, and KC's window has closed as they don't have the pitching anymore to make that roster work. The Sox are going to find themselves in a lot of winnable games, even if they are much worse overall. With the Twins attempting to tank again in the same division, it is going to really tough for the Sox to suck enough to lose as many games as they do. I think the Padres are far and away the favorite to garner the #1 overall pick. Not that it means a ton at this point, the Braves and Phillies were supposed to fight it out for #1 this year and ended up picking fifth and eighth.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 1, 2017 -> 10:03 PM) Caul field how is that remotely relevant to a Quintana trade rumor thread This is just the Soxtalk catchall thread now. There are many posts in here that have nothing to do with a Q trade - a lot of Frazier rumors, some Abreu rumors, some posts marveling at how many pages this thread is, all with no corresponding connection to the topic of the thread. Its probably time for this thread to die so that a new one can be formed once there is something newsworthy.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 22, 2016 -> 09:12 PM) Which deal would you guys prefer? 1) Glasnow, Bell, & Newman 2) Martes, Tucker, Reed, & Stubbs I would definitely take #1, but would be open to #2 as I'm higher on Tucker than most here. Definitely the Astros deal. I think Martes could be the best of any of the pitchers that have been discussed for Q to this point, I think Reed will end up being a better 1B than Bell, Tucker has huge upside, Stubbs is probably a backup in the MLB. I am not sold that Glasnow will be able to hone his command, and he is kind of the same guy that you have in Giolito. Bell is probably a DH as he has not really been able to pick up the nuances of defense to this point so that really limits his value, and Newman is really solid, but not sure what you do with him. The package I am hoping for from the Pirates is Meadows, Keller, Hayes, and Hearn. Keller is from here, and I think he flew under the radar with Iowa's weird baseball season and being out part of his draft year, but he has the stuff to be a legit middle of the rotation guy and maybe a #2. Hearn is the wildcard hard thrower, but a lefty that can run it up to 99, maybe a Matt Thornton starter kit. I would be fine without him and just getting the other three, but I feel he is the kind of throw in piece that could put the Pirates over the top.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 19, 2016 -> 08:00 PM) Not really. At least not the same level he has now, most teams (especially the Yankees) would rather spend money than prospects on free agents. Next year's free agent class includes the likes of Jake Arrieta, Johnny Cueto and Danny Duffy. You can rant and rave that Quintana is better than all those guys but those guys wont cost valuable prospects. Quintana derives a lot of his current value from being the only really attractive SP option available at the moment. If he doesn't command a trade package you like this year he will almost certainly not next year either. I'm OK keeping Quintana around, but that puts a little more pressure on the rebuild to be nearing completion by opening day 2019. Hes still going to be one of the few attractive options on the market. Yes, Q will cost prospects, but the pitchers you mentioned are going to earn quite a bit more money than what is owed to Q. And with the the new salary cap, teams are going to really desire that cost certainty in relation to performance. The Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers, and Giants are all going to have holes in their rotation and no room under the luxury tax cap to backfill. That makes Q incredibly valuable to teams in that situation, teams that won't be able to fill that need on the open market.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 19, 2016 -> 04:31 PM) A lot of you guys are blood drunk on the Eaton trade, and if Quintana is traded you're setting yourselves up to be really disappointed. Like if the Sox get a Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge and Wilkerman Garcia package for Q will you seriously be upset? Because judging by the demands of two of the top three prospects from the best farm system in baseball you're gonna be devastated by whatever return they get for him. The Red Sox didn't even have to give up two of their top three and they do not have the same caliber system the Yankees have (nor are they as invested in the contributions of their minor leaguers as the Yankees currently are). Yes, I would be very angry with that return, getting back three guys who are not going to be able to hit major league pitching would be a tremendous fail. Judge is built like Adam Dunn, and has power to similar to Dunn and also the extreme swing and miss Dunn had to his game. The difference is that Dunn had a better track record of contact before cracking the majors. Frazier has pitch recognition issues that will make it much more difficult to handle major league breaking balls, and Garcia might as well be Rondon 2.0. That would be an epic fail of a trade. A package from the Yankees starts with Torres, then you can sprinkle in a combination of players to make a deal. I think Torres, Rutherford, Acevedo, and Frecier Perez would be a good deal for both sides. The Yankees have to give up two top 50 prospects, but they are both pretty far away from the majors. Acevedo fits in with the pitching staff that the Sox are putting together as another impact arm, albeit with questions. Perez is a lottery ticket arm. Yes, the Yankees package is going to have to be a little heavier than what the Red Sox gave up because the Red Sox package is closer to the majors and with that carries less risk of busting.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 02:59 PM) I think Frazier would make sense for the Mets since you can't count on David Wright anymore/he should be moved to first anyway. But other than them, I have no idea who wants him. Yeah, I think Frazier is going to be moved at the deadline when some team finds their 3B under performing or with a season ending injury. The Braves or Giants could still make some sense, but I think they will wait to see what they have this season before giving up prospects for someone like Frazier.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 12:35 PM) I don't think St. Louis would deal Reyes, Sosa and Kelly for two seasons of Blackmon, especially after signing Fowler That would be the "Eaton-like" return the Rockies are going for, and they are still in need of another OF to go along side Fowler and Piscotty. Blackmon would allow Fowler to move from CF to a spot where his defense may be an asset. Not sure how the Cardinals would value that, but with their rotation in pretty solid shape, I can see them making a move to compete now after handing that contract to Fowler.

QUOTE (Username @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 11:24 AM) Totally agreed - can't forget Rick Hahn loves those 3-team trades as well. Someone like the Blue Jays, Mets, or even the Orioles could easily be interested in Blackmon. Could get a few good prospects from the team acquiring Blackmon, and Rodgers from Colorado. Potentially even put Abreu or Frazier into the package (obviously with a bigger return), or even Jones or Robertson. The Rockies bullpen is still pretty trash even with Dunn. The Cardinals make a lot of sense as the third wheel in a trade. They really need another OF, and Blackmon or Cargo would fit perfectly and they could provide pieces that the Sox would value so the Sox would not need to strip away too many of their own prospects. Something like: Cardinals get: Blackmon Rockies get: Reyes and Quintana Sox get: Rodgers, Hoffman, Tapia, Sosa, Kelly

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 03:10 PM) If he truly is a $200 million player, he is far better off waiting an additional 2 years and not messing with the other stuff. I'm sure he will be paid a pretty good wage in Japan those years. Thats assuming that the Japanese team will let him out of his contract after two years. If he has to sign an extension in Japan to bridge the seasons until he is 25, odds are his Japanese team is going to hold out for a longer term which would mean he might not be able to come over until he is older, meaning he would likely only get two MLB contracts instead of three if he comes over next year and is a FA at 28. If he stays or comes over, he likely hits FA at about the same time. If he comes earlier he develops a track record and gets a bunch of marketing and exposure here in addition to what he will still reap in Japan.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 12:18 PM) MLB wouldn't allow it. He'd have to wait at least until his arbitration years. With him especially they are going to be extremely wary of those sorts of tactics. They couldn't stop it. Jonathan Singleton is a precedent where MLB allowed an extension before he ever hit the majors, so MLB would have a hard time doing anything about it given that. He is going to be a super two player, so if he signs an extension after the first season, a team is essentially only buying one pre-arb year and his remaining years of control for a controlled price.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 14, 2016 -> 08:52 AM) Isn't the idea that teams will use some loophole - sign him for a modest amount, agree to DFA him after 1 year (or whatever it's called when you let a player go early in career, and he agrees to sign back for some predetermined massive amount? He would have to pass through waivers, that would never happen.